Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[Ziggurat]

Actually the UN was the source for what I quoted.

No, the UN was not the source. They were the publisher that you used, but they did not come up with those figures themselves.

Are you saying that the UN is a Hamas ally?

I'm saying that the UN got the figures they are using for Gaza casualties from Hamas. They say they got those figures from Hamas. I believe that they are being honest when they say that.

I didn't think you could keep screwing this up for this many consecutive posts, but here we are.

 

[Cosmic Yak]

The IDF is also a terrorist organization, they have committed MANY acts of terrorism.


IDFascists

OK, so you're deflecting and staying with the tu quoque. I did say it was your choice. However, your refusal to deal directly with the issue, whilst predictable, speaks volumes.

 

[arthwollipot]

No, the UN was not the source. They were the publisher that you used, but they did not come up with those figures themselves.

I'm saying that the UN got the figures they are using for Gaza casualties from Hamas. They say they got those figures from Hamas. I believe that they are being honest when they say that.

I didn't think you could keep screwing this up for this many consecutive posts, but here we are.

In other words, yes, you are saying that the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is effectively a Hamas ally, since they apparently use and publish data given to them by Hamas with absolutely no critical examination or independent verification of any kind. Either they're a Hamas ally or they're too stupid to recognise when Hamas blatantly lies, while you on the other hand can see through the lies without difficulty.

Don't you see what you're looking like here? The "official" story coming from the "authorities" is wrong, "they" are lying to everyone, but you can see clearly. It's 100% out of the conspiracy theorist playbook. Perhaps you'd like to rethink your thinking here.

 

[Ziggurat]

In other words, yes, you are saying that the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is effectively a Hamas ally,

Interesting logic. Let’s see if you actually stick with it..

since they apparently use and publish data given to them by Hamas

That’s indisputable. They explicitly said they did.

with absolutely no critical examination or independent verification of any kind.

Go on then, tell me what independent verification they did. Nothing in your link indicates they did any at all. So why are you assuming that they did any? There is no reason to think they did. That’s not a conspiracy theory, that’s just a simple and obvious observation. Your only counter argument is incredulity.

But in fact, it’s WORSE than that: not only do they not say they verified the data, they explicitly said they DID NOT verify it. From your source:

Disclaimer: Figures that are yet-to-be verified by the UN are attributed to their source.

Oops. I’m afraid that, according to YOUR logic, the UN is in fact a Hamas ally. I didn’t go that far, but hey, I won’t argue the point.

Let’s see if you can screw up yet again.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

How Trump went from opposing Israel's strikes on Iran to reluctant support

Israel was going to do it anyway, despite the US saying it wouldn't help them. And they would too. The US doesn't have as much influence as people think. Even if Trump threatened to revoke all military and other aid, they would still do it. Because they are Israel.

Yes, Trump managed to convince Israel not to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, but only because they sought his approval.

Trump was able to put his foot down where he could. You might say he didn't do enough, but Trump's a negotiator not a tough guy. We don't know that being a tough guy would have helped the situation either. It would probably just get the US offside with Israel and make them even more determined to do whatever they wanted. By being 'friendly', Trump was able to get an important concession.


The problem with hyper-partisanship is that people can't give credit where it's due. Trump is bad in many ways, but in this case he is right to prefer diplomacy over war. To the extent that he achieves that (or even attempts it) he is doing good. Your insistence that Trump could have been tougher on Israel and therefore has 'everything to do with it' is off-base. He's not a warhawk like Biden, who steadfastly supported Israel no matter what. And he's learning, possibly enough to eventually be an effective negotiator. He might even get credit it for it from those whose sight isn't completely blinkered.

as we can see from the flight data, US tankers are working overtime to allow Israel to do bomb Iran - without massive US support, Israel could not have done a fraction of what it is doing, and it would be helpless against retaliation without US AA support.
All of this stands and falls with US support.

On a side note: diplomacy is over because the US and Israel were never serious about any, preferring to target Negotiators for killing and breaking every deal they ever made.
Iran would be insane to make any deal but the one the Houthis made: stop firing on us, and we will stop firing on you.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

it should be noted that the Leadership decapitated by Israel are the people who have been not radical enough by the general sentiment in Iran. They were the Moderates who refused to actually build a Nuke.
Israel's goal, just like with Hamas, is to make sure that there won't be anyone willing or able to negotiate, leaving war as the only and permanent state of being, forcing the US into permanent battle.

 

[Explorer]

"Damaged" could cover quite a lot, including purely cosmetic damage. What counts as damaged to them? Your link gives no indication of methodology, not in terms of what qualifies as destroyed or damaged and not in terms of how they surveyed structures to determine percentages. So I cannot evaluate that claim. But when I look at Google Maps satellite images, something I can check (and so can you), I see a lot of buildings still standing. Now, given an appropriate definition of "damaged", it's quite possible that a thorough survey would get us to your 70% figure. But your original claim that I responded to wasn't about damage. Your claim was that Gaza "has almost been totally flattened". And I don't see any evidence for that. A claim from MSF without even an explanation is not evidence. And even taking their claim as gospel truth, it's still a different claim than yours and so still wouldn't constitute evidence for your claim.

You said you were willing to be convinced otherwise. I'm not even asking you to believe me. Go to Google Maps. Pan around, see for yourself what it looks like. Does it really look like it's been almost totally flattened to you? Don't trust me, don't trust MSF. Find out for yourself.

Nope, not convinced. I am happy to believe from my reliable on the ground source that at least 90% of Gazians have no home to return to when the Israelis stop bombing the rubble. I am not interested in any pedantry relating to "damaged" or "destroyed" semantics, as either way, the buildings will not be habitable, and ultimately would probably have to be demolished, and of course, Israel are still bombing. I did check the Google map, but as soon as I saw the data attribution as being well over a year old, stopped bothering to scrutinise further.

 

[Cosmic Yak]

it should be noted that the Leadership decapitated by Israel are the people who have been not radical enough by the general sentiment in Iran. They were the Moderates who refused to actually build a Nuke.
Israel's goal, just like with Hamas, is to make sure that there won't be anyone willing or able to negotiate, leaving war as the only and permanent state of being, forcing the US into permanent battle.

From where are you getting your information about the 'general sentiment' in Iran?

 

[arthwollipot]

Interesting logic. Let’s see if you actually stick with it..

That’s indisputable. They explicitly said they did.

Go on then, tell me what independent verification they did. Nothing in your link indicates they did any at all. So why are you assuming that they did any? There is no reason to think they did. That’s not a conspiracy theory, that’s just a simple and obvious observation. Your only counter argument is incredulity.

Incredulity that an organisation like the UN would unquestioningly accept Hamas' word? Yes, I'd be pretty incredulous about that.

How many Palestinian civilians do you think Israel has killed?

But in fact, it’s WORSE than that: not only do they not say they verified the data, they explicitly said they DID NOT verify it. From your source:

Oops. I’m afraid that, according to YOUR logic, the UN is in fact a Hamas ally. I didn’t go that far, but hey, I won’t argue the point.

An interesting interpretation.

Let’s see if you can screw up yet again.

Let's see...

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/un-report-70-gaza-dead

Also, the cited report by the OHCHR from April 2024 shows that they are reporting casualties that the OHCHR itself has verified, not simply casualties that Hamas told them about.


The report makes for some chilling reading. You should take a look.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

From where are you getting your information about the 'general sentiment' in Iran?

history - Iranians might not like their government, but they certainly like Israel less.
So far, the only Iranians cheering for the attack are exiles in the US and elsewhere who have zero support at home.

As an easy baseline, take the reaction of pretty much every Muslim country in the region, that are condemning Israel in the strongest terms.

Do you think this will result in a regime change to a more pro-Israeli government?
Do you see Israel and the US giving such a government concessions in return for, say, a recognition of Israel?

Keep in mind that it wasn't the killing of the Iraqi leadership that caused a regime change - it was a decade of brutal occupation plus a generous paying off of resistance groups.
That is not possible in Iran.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

There is a wider geopolitical scope of the Israel -Iran war as it relates to Ukraine/Russia and China.
Russia heavily depends on Iran for its drones, and it is certain that that supply is going to dry up, at least temporarily. And on the flip side this probably means less support by Russia for Iran, unless Putin sees his chance to make this the new Vietnam for the US/Israel.

China has the luxury of doubling down on its support for either Iran or Russia, or let the pieces fall as they may, and do with the leftovers whatever it wants.

The biggest losers are going to be, in order, Iran, Israel and the US, depending on how quickly they are willing to end this madness with a permanent deal.

China is winning either way.

 

[lionking]

There is a wider geopolitical scope of the Israel -Iran war as it relates to Ukraine/Russia and China.
Russia heavily depends on Iran for its drones, and it is certain that that supply is going to dry up, at least temporarily. And on the flip side this probably means less support by Russia for Iran, unless Putin sees his chance to make this the new Vietnam for the US/Israel.

China has the luxury of doubling down on its support for either Iran or Russia, or let the pieces fall as they may, and do with the leftovers whatever it wants.

The biggest losers are going to be, in order, Iran, Israel and the US, depending on how quickly they are willing to end this madness with a permanent deal.

China is winning either way.

This is 100% fantasy. This skirmish will be over in no time. Iran is not renowned for its brave and resilient military.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

This is 100% fantasy. This skirmish will be over in no time. Iran is not renowned for its brave and resilient military.

It's up to Israel, not Iran, when this stops.
They said at least a week.
It has nothing to do with Iran's response.

Israel will continue until the US enters the fight in earnest (and then go back to bombing Gaza full-time) or no longer gets support for a war with Iran from the US ( at which point it will go back to bombing Gaza full-time).

 

[Andy_Ross]

Donald is planning something much bigger than a cease fire

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a "cease fire" between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!

 

[Cosmic Yak]

history - Iranians might not like their government, but they certainly like Israel less.

Citation needed.

So far, the only Iranians cheering for the attack are exiles in the US and elsewhere who have zero support at home.

As an easy baseline, take the reaction of pretty much every Muslim country in the region, that are condemning Israel in the strongest terms.

You appear to be unaware that Iran is predominantly Shia, whilst the Gulf States are mostly Sunni. Just because these latter condemn Israel does not mean they support Iran.

Do you think this will result in a regime change to a more pro-Israeli government?

Doubtful. Why do you ask?

Do you see Israel and the US giving such a government concessions in return for, say, a recognition of Israel?

If that were to happen, almost certainly yes.

Keep in mind that it wasn't the killing of the Iraqi leadership that caused a regime change - it was a decade of brutal occupation plus a generous paying off of resistance groups.
That is not possible in Iran.

My knowledge and understanding of Iran tells me the majority of the population hate their government, and would be very happy for it to fall. You may remember seeing massive anti-government protests across Iran. However, the example of Iraq probably lingers in their memories. Bush Senior encouraged revolt against Saddam, and then stood back and watched as he crushed those revolts. Memories are long in the Middle East, and it is unlikely the people of any country in that region will make the same mistake as the Kurds and the Marsh Arabs did in Iraq.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump still feels cucked by Macron, so even when he tries to give Trump a chance to play Peacemaker he can't because it's coming from the guy his wife would rather kiss than him

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Even if this war brings in a new government that breaks with Islamism, the result will not be a country with a positive attitude towards Israel.
That is unless Israel and the US start pumping in billions and drop all sanctions like they did for Iraq.
And probably not even then.

 

[Darat]

Trump still feels cucked by Macron, so even when he tries to give Trump a chance to play Peacemaker he can't because it's coming from the
guy his wife would rather kiss than him

That can't be true as that would mean Trump would hate every other man on the planet... oh...

 

[Ziggurat]

Incredulity that an organisation like the UN would unquestioningly accept Hamas' word? Yes, I'd be pretty incredulous about that.

And yet, they explicitly stated that this is what they did. Are you accusing the UN of lying about that?

How many Palestinian civilians do you think Israel has killed?

I don't know. But I do know not to trust numbers coming from Hamas. Not sure why you're having such a hard time understanding that.

 

[Ziggurat]

Even if this war brings in a new government that breaks with Islamism, the result will not be a country with a positive attitude towards Israel.

Don't need it to. If it results in a country that doesn't pursue nuclear weapons and the destruction of Israel, that will be a major victory.