I predict civil war in the USofA: make your predictions here!

[mumblethrax]

You never know. The Lincoln Project, always the optimists about a second Dump regime, predicted he would give himself more power so he could just have disobedient governours arrested.

Local disobedience seems pretty optimistic in any case. Here in New York, Governor Hochul has made noises about working with the new administration. Trump and Mayor Adams have long since cozied up, two peas in the corruption pod. Malicious non-compliance is unlikely to happen here, at least in the short term.

Oh, well. There's always voting with your feet.

 

[Thermal]

I don't think it will get that far. My guess is that after Trump, things will get back to some semblance of normalcy. May be a tall order, but I think - or maybe more hope - it will be the case. The GOP don't like to talk about him because they're scared. I believe most of them would like to get back to traditional Republican issues that aren't fear-based. But I've been wrong before.

I'd like to believe that, but man.... the new crew of Republicans seem awfully on board with MAGAmania.

My gut feel is that they don't give much of a rats ass about principles, and only seek out what gets them power. Principles are sooooo twentieth century. And they've found a great deal of power by going low and appealing to base bigotry. It seems to be a much deeper pool than any of us thought. So how are they incentivised to return to principles and lose this rabble base they've stirred up and empowered?

Trump stirred up over 10 million more votes than the last Republican contender, Gov Romney. Why exactly would Republicans toss aside the Legions of Stupid they gave voice to?

 

[PitPat]

I'd like to believe that, but man.... the new crew of Republicans seem awfully on board with MAGAmania.

My gut feel is that they don't give much of a rats ass about principles, and only seek out what gets them power. Principles are sooooo twentieth century. And they've found a great deal of power by going low and appealing to base bigotry. It seems to be a much deeper pool than any of us thought. So how are they incentivised to return to principles and lose this rabble base they've stirred up and empowered?

Trump stirred up over 10 million more votes than the last Republican contender, Gov Romney. Why exactly would Republicans toss aside the Legions of Stupid they gave voice to?

That is a frightening thought indeed. Even worse if MAGAmania sticks around for the next few years without much political shifting. Worst case scenario is Donald Trump Jr in 2028, and the beginning of a new political family dynasty. Ivanka could be thrown in there too, though I thought it somewhat suspicious that she and Jared have been largely MIA during his campaign. Melania too, at least until her book dropped. A lot of people feel sorry for her - I am not among them.

The movie Idiocracy is something I bring up occasionally about matters such as these. It could come across as belittling the voters that honestly thought he would be better for the country than Harris, which is fair.

And how high of responsibility role he gives to RFK for public health policy. It's got electrolytes!

 

[mumblethrax]

The movie Idiocracy is something I bring up occasionally about matters such as these. It could come across as belittling the voters that honestly thought he would be better for the country than Harris, which is fair.

And how high of responsibility role he gives to RFK for public health policy. It's got electrolytes!

I don't think Idiocracy is a good model. President Camacho was capable of putting aside his ego and deferring to someone who knew more than he did. That's what you want in a president.

Trump will never do that. He will listen to whoever flatters him most. Loyalty over competence.

 

[alfaniner]

I wonder when the first big protest is going to be. January 6? (But it will not go the way the last one did.) Inauguration Day, perhaps? I can imagine millions of soon-to-be-deported immigrants swarming the city, with nothing to lose until noon of that day.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I don't think it will get that far. My guess is that after Trump, things will get back to some semblance of normalcy. May be a tall order, but I think - or maybe more hope - it will be the case. The GOP don't like to talk about him because they're scared. I believe most of them would like to get back to traditional Republican issues that aren't fear-based. But I've been wrong before.

The problem there is thinking that T****y isn't what the repugs want. Apart from the crudity of his language and the openness of his racism, he's the candidate they've been looking for since 1988.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

No civil war. Sorry.

Once you get off social media and take a walk, or go shopping you'll find that Americans are getting along just fine. The majority have better things to do than start shooting at their neighbors over political woo.

Ooh, the typical Ger.an citizen's response after 1933.

 

[Darat]

The problem there is thinking that T****y isn't what the repugs want. Apart from the crudity of his language and the openness of his racism, he's the candidate they've been looking for since 1988.

Similar to what I tell folk in the UK, the UK is as the Tories wanted it to be, in the USA Trump has surfaced what the Republicans (of today) want the USA to be.

 

[Norman Alexander]

Not a civil war, no.

But the USA will divide into two, or three distinct geographical sections, based on state borders.

The more populous east and west coast blue states will basically ignore, defer, delay or otherwise refuse whatever federal proclamations may come from the White House or even from Congress, and continue to run themselves as the hugely prosperous centers they are now. California has already been "Trump-proofing" itself. Nothing much will change for them, except perhaps to not collect taxes for the federal coffers but keeping more for themselves. That's a lever yet to be exploited, btw.

The remaining red states, geographically central - the flyover - will go full Trumpy-MAGA, and welcome and implement each and every fascist federal law with cheers. They will go basically backwards off a cliff socially - the Christian Taliban realised. Some states may still be generating a bit of tax revenue, but the previous financial support from the blue states will dry up, and they will all get noticeably poorer. Standards of living will drop even further. But at least all the brown people...sorry, illegals...will all be deported, even though that will cripple many primary industries. So there's that. And they will console themselves that, while they may be crushingly dirt poor and getting worse, but at least they are not socialist, commie lefties.

In effect, the current state of affairs between states will become far more exaggerated, and eventually the situation will become like separate countries within a country. No civil war needed.

 

[dudalb]

I wonder when the first big protest is going to be. January 6? (But it will not go the way the last one did.) Inauguration Day, perhaps? I can imagine millions of soon-to-be-deported immigrants swarming the city, with nothing to lose until noon of that day.

When the Mass deportations begin. Easy.

 

[dudalb]

Not a civil war, no.

But the USA will divide into two, or three distinct geographical sections, based on state borders.

The more populous east and west coast blue states will basically ignore, defer, delay or otherwise refuse whatever federal proclamations may come from the White House or even from Congress, and continue to run themselves as the hugely prosperous centers they are now. California has already been "Trump-proofing" itself. Nothing much will change for them, except perhaps to not collect taxes for the federal coffers but keeping more for themselves. That's a lever yet to be exploited, btw.

The remaining red states, geographically central - the flyover - will go full Trumpy-MAGA, and welcome and implement each and every fascist federal law with cheers. They will go basically backwards off a cliff socially - the Christian Taliban realised. Some states may still be generating a bit of tax revenue, but the previous financial support from the blue states will dry up, and they will all get noticeably poorer. Standards of living will drop even further. But at least all the brown people...sorry, illegals...will all be deported, even though that will cripple many primary industries. So there's that. And they will console themselves that, while they may be crushingly dirt poor and getting worse, but at least they are not socialist, commie lefties.

In effect, the current state of affairs between states will become far more exaggerated, and eventually the situation will become like separate countries within a country. No civil war need

What about the Purple States?
Very simplistic and based on a indaquate knowledge of the USA.
And you seem to take great joy in the idea of the US splitting up.
Also, last times the States attmpted actions like what you suggested openly defying the federal govement we did get a Civil War.

 

[GlennB]

When the Mass deportations begin. Easy.

There might be some, but they won't be 'mass'

 

[dudalb]

I agree, but eventh eones he makes will have really bad optics if he sets up dtention camps.

 

[PitPat]

I agree, but eventh eones he makes will have really bad optics if he sets up dtention camps.

He'll probably try. Any Executive Order on it will face legal challenges. What worries me a little is that if it gets to SCOTUS, he has some folks who might agree with that reasoning.

And he had to take a step back after detained children crying for their mom were played at a White House press briefing. Not long after that, if I recall, they stopped holding briefings altogether. Kind of curious if he will allow daily WH briefings.

As long as he doesn't try to deport Canadian bacon, I'll be okay.

 

[Norman Alexander]

What about the Purple States?
Very simplistic and based on a indaquate knowledge of the USA.
And you seem to take great joy in the idea of the US splitting up.
Also, last times the States attmpted actions like what you suggested openly defying the federal govement we did get a Civil War.

The purple states went red this time. So they will join the Coalition of the Losers.

True, I don't have a full and detailed knowledge of the USA. I'm not American, and I never read US history at university. But through the good stead of folks here who have, I believe over the last 10 years I have been far better informed than your average two-tooth, one-cell, can't-spell MAGA amoeba.

I take zero pleasure whatsoever in the USA splitting up, if it does. In fact, negative pleasure. Although "splitting up" is not exactly what I said. Let me quote me:

In effect, the current state of affairs between states will become far more exaggerated, and eventually the situation will become like separate countries within a country.

So, no. Not an actual civil war. Slippery-slope fallacy much?

The US Civil War started when some states actually seceded from the Union (for reasons that we won't go into here).

Now, California has been actively defying federal laws for some time, being a "sanctuary state". In the other direction, Abbott's Texas is also "doing its own thing" with immigrants in clear defiance of federal laws, even at the expense of other states (it's just state-level provocation, really). Think there is a civil war happening today? I don't.

I just think that these levels of defiance by states will continue and deepen significantly. To the effect that there will be two very distinct zones in the USA that operate entirely differently and at often odds with each other, so effectively becoming like two countries.

 

[Louden Wilde]

Broadly agree with the above. I suspect it will be a bit more complicated than two groups though. I suspect different states will have different - often overlapping but not identical - agreements with other states. For example, MA will probably have a different agreements with CT than with CA. I think we'll also see push from some of the rural parts of western states to join adjacent states with more compatible world views after a few years of this (e.g. eastern WA, eastern CO).

In terms of feeling, I think this is best viewed like divorce between 2 parents who are often engaging in vitriolic arguments by their children. Yes, you're sad that you'll no longer be a family in the same way, but there's relief as well.

 

[crescent]

Now, California has been actively defying federal laws for some time, being a "sanctuary state".

CA may be a sanctuary state, but they don't violate any federal law by doing so. At most they forfeit some federal funding by refusing to engage in "voluntary" cooperation with the feds.

But they don't actually defy federal law, just refuse to assist in the enforcement of it.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

In effect, the current state of affairs between states will become far more exaggerated, and eventually the situation will become like separate countries within a country. No civil war needed.

Yes. We are witnessing the beginning of the dissolution of the United States. Nothing lasts forever, and 235 years is pretty good going. Might get to 240 years before the final breakup if you're lucky.

But will it result in civil war? According to this simulation, yes. The reasons for the decay of the US in this scenario were proposed to be:-

1. Economic recession/depression
2. Military competition
3. Internal unrest
4. Too many people to rule over
5. Opposition from non-Westerners
6. Disease epidemics
7. Secessions of various non-recognized states
8. Loss of allies as they also dissolved
9. Lack of national will

That's a fairly accurate list of the things that are plaguing the US of late, or soon will be. Just need one of them to boil over and 'poof' - the end.

 

[Norman Alexander]

CA may be a sanctuary state, but they don't violate any federal law by doing so. At most they forfeit some federal funding by refusing to engage in "voluntary" cooperation with the feds.

But they don't actually defy federal law, just refuse to assist in the enforcement of it.

Agreed. Meanwhile, I have been jokingly calling Texas the anti-sanctuary state - it is actively repressing and exporting immigrants rather than protecting them like CA. Now have all states committing to go one way or the other like CA or TX, and multiply that by "lots, like the world has never seen before". Result: two bitterly opposed confederations of states with only a family name in common. One thing's for sure: Trump won't give a flying ◊◊◊◊ as long as he keeps out of jail and gets his payoffs.

 

[Louden Wilde]

I'm betting there will be plenty of edicts from the new admin for CA and other states to defy.