I predict civil war in the USofA: make your predictions here!

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Are you saying that someone who committed a crime hasn't committed a crime? I get that in a court of law a defendant has a presumption of innocence. But let's not pretend that Trump hasn't brazenly broken more laws than the the 32 he's been convicted of.

"Show me the man and I'll show you the crime."
-Lavrentiy Beria, the most ruthless and longest-serving secret police chief in Joseph Stalin’s reign of terror in Russia and Eastern Europe, bragged that he could prove criminal conduct on anyone, even the innocent.

Read more at: https://www.oxfordeagle.com/2018/05/09/show-me-the-man-and-ill-show-you-the-crime/

 

[Louden Wilde]

While I agree something like the 1860s civil war is not going to happen, I will bet this time-frame will be remembered as the point when it became increasingly clear that the US was no longer viable. I'm betting there will be sporadic violence regardless of the outcome of the election - likely more immediate violence if Trump doesn't get elected but more chaos when he likely gets in. I think we'll see that increasingly states will not obey his admins orders and/or SCOTUS rulings.

I think eventually enough people will realize/admit the dysfunction of the US that votes will pass to make the US a more loose association, with reduced executive office power. Various groups of states will have closer ties/mutual agreements. A final dissolution may eventually emerge after a period of erosion/inter-state tensions (likely many years from now) when the states can't decide on a foreign policy decision.

Regardless of the details, I think it's clear the US time as a functional unit is effectively over, barring major political reform (e.g. methods of eliminating the effective 2-party system, the undemocratic aspects of the senate, electoral college, etc.)

 

[shemp]

Regardless of the details, I think it's clear the US time as a functional unit is effectively over, barring major political reform
(e.g. methods of eliminating the effective 2-party system, the undemocratic aspects of the senate, electoral college, etc.)

None of these are likely to ever happen. A viable third party, in conjunction with the Electoral College, would be a path to disaster, with Presidential elections being decided in Congress. And by itself, the Electoral College is a disaster, with Presidential candidates winning with a minority of the popular vote. As for the Senate, getting rid of the filibuster isn't as easy as most people seem to think, plus there are many archaic rules that tie the Senate in knots.

I think the U.S. will eventually splinter into two or more nations, and it will be an absolute disaster that will result in millions of people dead, perhaps like the 1948 partition of India that resulted in somewhere between 2 million and 20 million dead. But it might not be entirely political; the effects of global warming could exacerbate it.

 

[wasapi]

Ah. Something for my grandchildren to endure. So not funny.

 

[shemp]

Ah. Something for my grandchildren to endure. So not funny.

I know I have a reputation, but I hope you didn't think I was trying to be funny.

 

[PitPat]

None of these are likely to ever happen. A viable third party, in conjunction with the Electoral College, would be a path to disaster, with Presidential elections being decided in Congress. And by itself, the Electoral College is a disaster, with Presidential candidates winning with a minority of the popular vote. As for the Senate, getting rid of the filibuster isn't as easy as most people seem to think, plus there are many archaic rules that tie the Senate in knots.

I think the U.S. will eventually splinter into two or more nations, and it will be an absolute disaster that will result in millions of people dead, perhaps like the 1948 partition of India that resulted in somewhere between 2 million and 20 million dead. But it might not be entirely political; the effects of global warming could exacerbate it.

If history is an example, and we're doomed to repeat it, then yeah US will eventually be split up either by foreign or domestic reasons.

Though not in my lifetime and don't have offspring. So get it while you can.

 

[shemp]

I have no offspring, not so sure about the not in my lifetime department.

 

[arthwollipot]

I don't get this argument, and I know it's not the argument you are making, but you reminded me of it, that "I don't need to worry about making the future better since I won't be here to see it and I don't have kids". How about making the future better for other peoples' kids?

Okay, irrelevant aside over. Carry on.

 

[shemp]

I don't get this argument, and I know it's not the argument you are making, but you reminded me of it, that "I don't need to worry about making the future better since I won't be here to see it and I don't have kids". How about making the future better for other peoples' kids?

Okay, irrelevant aside over. Carry on.

I am making the future better for other people's kids! I still leave my used chewing gum stuck to the bottom of the desk so future kids can enjoy it!

 

[PitPat]

Exactly, I'm making future generations better by not procreating.

 

[shemp]

Exactly, I'm making future generations better by not procreating.

And the world is more thankful than you can ever know!

 

[Ryan O'Dine]

I am making the future better for other people's kids! I still leave my used chewing gum stuck to the bottom of the desk so future kids can enjoy it!

I've had those! They taste disgusting and I've broken teeth over them because they're impossible to chew, but they're freeeee! Yaaaaaaay!

 

[Suddenly]

I can see massive non-performative disobedience to unpopular policies. Local and state governments simply refusing to comply or maliciously complying with policy that would cause local harm. That sort of thing. Some marches and demonstrations with peaceful intent that meet violent opposition. The odd riot in reaction to serious outrage. Those are likely to be reactions to real world conditions rather than ideology.

(I just won my local race. I had a weird year. The one thing I learned getting into politics is that my local Democratic Party is useless and if my race is partisan next time I'll be running as an independent. I started out running (on an angry whim) for prosecutor as a Democrat and after I did way better than expected in the primary (I was a write in vote on a big number of GOP primary ballots as well) I was coincidentally offered an appointment to a judicial vacancy which I accepted and defended in a non-partisan race.

I don't know how much of a front row seat I am going to have to all this, but as the curse goes we live in interesting times.

 

[shemp]

Congratulations! Here Come The Judge!

 

[Louden Wilde]

I can see massive non-performative disobedience to unpopular policies. Local and state governments simply refusing to comply or maliciously complying with policy that would cause local harm. That sort of thing. Some marches and demonstrations with peaceful intent that meet violent opposition. The odd riot in reaction to serious outrage. Those are likely to be reactions to real world conditions rather than ideology.

(I just won my local race. I had a weird year. The one thing I learned getting into politics is that my local Democratic Party is useless and if my race is partisan next time I'll be running as an independent. I started out running (on an angry whim) for prosecutor as a Democrat and after I did way better than expected in the primary (I was a write in vote on a big number of GOP primary ballots as well) I was coincidentally offered an appointment to a judicial vacancy which I accepted and defended in a non-partisan race.

I don't know how much of a front row seat I am going to have to all this, but as the curse goes we live in interesting times.

Yep, It seems likely some governors (CA, CO, etc.) will refuse to comply with certain edicts/acts from the new Trump admin. I think that trend and those disagreements will escalate - with like-minded states forming partnerships/agreements - until it's clear that the US has de facto broken up.

 

[Norman Alexander]

So it's going to be the "Yeah? Why don't you make me!" Civil war?

 

[dudalb]

I don't get this argument, and I know it's not the argument you are making, but you reminded me of it, that "I don't need to worry about making the future better since I won't be here to see it and I don't have kids". How about making the future better for other peoples' kids?

Okay, irrelevant aside over. Carry on.

I am sick and tired of the "we are doomed and there is nothng ws can do about it" crap I have seen on thei forum n the past couple of days.
Irony is it benefits nobody but Trump.
I know being Nihilsitic is cool and edgy and all that, but time to get serious about the next step.
And I suspect a lot of it is just venting.
But,yeah, I am getting the impression of a lot of people who have never really grown out of being angst filled teenager, try9ing to see who can be the most gloomy and doomsday.
ANd yeah, Hyperbole is the standard language of the internet.

 

[Louden Wilde]

For doom and gloom, see our effects on the environment and climate change. I don't see the US breaking up (de jure or de facto) as necessarily bad. Yes, I'd like reforms (as noted above) and the US to stay together. But at this point, I think that's feasible - there is too much vitriol and the cultures too far apart. I began thinking about a potential dissolution more seriously after seeing Colin Quinn's one man show "Red State, Blue State", which is worth a watch (though not sure how much is cut in the recorded version).

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Yep, It seems likely some governors (CA, CO, etc.) will refuse to comply with certain edicts/acts from the new Trump admin. I think that trend and those disagreements will escalate - with like-minded states forming partnerships/agreements - until it's clear that the US has de facto broken up.

You never know. The Lincoln Project, always the optimists about a second Dump regime, predicted he would give himself more power so he could just have disobedient governours arrested.

 

[PitPat]

For doom and gloom, see our effects on the environment and climate change. I don't see the US breaking up (de jure or de facto) as necessarily bad. Yes, I'd like reforms (as noted above) and the US to stay together. But at this point, I think that's feasible - there is too much vitriol and the cultures too far apart. I began thinking about a potential dissolution more seriously after seeing Colin Quinn's one man show "Red State, Blue State", which is worth a watch (though not sure how much is cut in the recorded version).

I don't think it will get that far. My guess is that after Trump, things will get back to some semblance of normalcy. May be a tall order, but I think - or maybe more hope - it will be the case. The GOP don't like to talk about him because they're scared. I believe most of them would like to get back to traditional Republican issues that aren't fear-based. But I've been wrong before.