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Merged Trump shot in PA??

LiteBright said:
You understand that people bet on the outcome of elections worldwide, right? They do this with bookmakers, betting exchanges and prediction markets. There is a whole industry of people who do this very seriously and put in massive amounts of time and effort in order to profit from it. I dabble in it myself having lost about $4200 in the 2016 election but making well over $24k in the 2020 election (thank you mail in ballots).

The point of the price I gave isn't to call anything. Its a snapshot in time of where public sentiment stands and can be a leading indicator before proper polls are conducted. In this case, it clearly shows sentiment moving towards Trump after the shooting which is very common after an act of political violence. As of this morning its moved slightly more toward Trump, implying around a 74% probability of him winning. Polls in the coming days will also likely show the same shift.

Of course the market gets more efficient the closer we come to election day but even this far out there is a significant amount of money in it, making it a good early indicator.
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i think it's a good snapshot of a moment of what gamblers think will happen. but they don't have any special insight into the future anymore than anyone else and gambling culture is full of irrational thinking.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Well of course to hit person even in the head is nothing hard from this distance.
I mean hitting his ear, right in the moment when the turns his head, and leave him otherwise unharmed .. that's insane luck.
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He had turned his head and was holding in that position for several seconds before the shot. I assume the shooter was aiming in the center of his view. He had the right height but perhaps windage (or bad horizontal aim) took the bullet to the side.

Still, I am astonished at Trump's continued luck.
 
Puppycow said:
This is literally the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy. He was aiming for the head but missed although only just barely. He grazed the ear.

Like every hand in poker is equally highly unlikely if you select 5 random cards from a 52-card deck. But you will get something for sure.
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This assumes he was a fair shooter, aimed for the head and missed by a little. He could just as well been shooting for center mass and really sucked.
 
Trump was most probably going to win the next Presidential election. This assassination attempt will only cement that probability. It is just so stupid, and thoughtless. To Trump's followers this will only reinforce his status as St. Donald of Trump, God's only Son, the Messiah, Holy One, God Incarnate. Also this will no doubt increase Trump's paranoia and oft stated desire for revenge.

Just stupid all the way down the line!!!
 
Praise the Lord in my quest to end Epstein's evil empire - Thomas Matthew Crooks on his instagram profile, now taken down.

Could this have something to do with the Epstein releases recently? Trump was mentioned in them a lot.
 
The shooter achieved a few things from 390 feet.
An ear piercing.
A perfect exhibition of a heroic survivor.
This incident would be forgotten in a heartbeat without the perfect injury and the missing the skull.
It is literally incredible.

William Tell and the apple on his son's head comes to mind.
 
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I like how he is posing for a picture after being shot while the secret service were trying to cover the lower half of his body. Usually, you get hustled out of there.
 
alfaniner said:
He had turned his head and was holding in that position for several seconds before the shot. I assume the shooter was aiming in the center of his view. He had the right height but perhaps windage (or bad horizontal aim) took the bullet to the side.
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Not quite.

Trump's head was stationary for several seconds. Trump then turned his head very slightly toward the chart he was discussing, and was hit in the ear a fraction of a second later. If not for that very slight turn of his head, I suspect it would have been a fatal head shot.
 
dirtywick said:
i think it's a good snapshot of a moment of what gamblers think will happen. but they don't have any special insight into the future anymore than anyone else and gambling culture is full of irrational thinking.
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You're not wrong about gambling culture on the whole but political markets are a little bit different in that they are not attracting your average action bettor who is looking for a quick fix. At least not right now. This market won't be settled for months so the vast majority of the money involved at this point is professional and yes, those people do have more insight than the average person. No one is dropping a substantial amount of money on an investment without having done research and convincing themselves that its a better investment than the stock market for instance. That's not to say all money involved is rational, otherwise there would be no room to profit.

I don't want to derail the thread further but I'll end by saying that betting markets have advantages and disadvantages over traditional polling when it comes to being predictive. As I said before, its one data point of many, take it for what its worth. The number of people here who instinctively dismiss it without understanding how markets work is disappointing.
 
Thermal said:
NBC says the dead shooter, 20 yr old Thomas Matthew Crooks, lives just south of Pittsburgh, and according to public records, there is a registered republican with the same name and birthdate in that town. So how does Tump spin that?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-rally-shooter-identified-rcna161757
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He could have been registered republican, so he could vote against Trump in primaries. That says nothing. He also donated few dollars to democrat campaign.
But imho the sad fact (for Trump) is it was just a loonie. It's usually the case. No coherent political message. No conspiracy.
 
I wonder if this will have any effect on Trump's stance on gun control.

If anything, upon obtaining power, he might try to restrict gun ownership of his political opponents.
 
Dr.Sid said:
He could have been registered republican, so he could vote against Trump in primaries. That says nothing. He also donated few dollars to democrat campaign.
But imho the sad fact (for Trump) is it was just a loonie. It's usually the case. No coherent political message. No conspiracy.
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I'm not trying to suss out motive. The motive is that Crooks was an ******* who is now a dead *******. What I'm wondering is how Trump will play it to his advantage, or even if he can. I mean, "My own party members want to kill me, and they suck at shooting on top of it" makes for a lousy bumper sticker.
 
Ryokan said:
Praise the Lord in my quest to end Epstein's evil empire - Thomas Matthew Crooks on his instagram profile, now taken down.

Could this have something to do with the Epstein releases recently? Trump was mentioned in them a lot.
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It doesn't sound unlikely, but can we be sure that it was his actual profile?
There has got to be a Christian or two out there who bought into the Pizzagate Democrats-are-all-pedophiles conspiracy nonsense, were further riled up by watching Sound of Freedom, and now can't reconcile their beliefs with Trump's friendship with Epstein.
He may have been a Republican, but he may not have been a QAnon MAGA Republican anymore.

ETA: Or maybe a very consistent one!
 
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