How do we know a pandemic's over?

[The Atheist]

The actual number of reinfections may be higher.

Baker trying to talk up a storm even though he only has a teacup, yet again.

You'd get on well with Baker - I mentioned earlier in the thread he's NZ's Panicker-in-Chief.

 

[dann]

A critical incident has been declared at Stoke-on-Trent's main hospital. A&E pressures at Royal Stoke University Hospital and too many patients blocking beds on wards have been blamed for the current crisis.
This is the third time the Royal Stoke has declared a critical incident in 2024.
Royal Stoke declares CRITICAL INCIDENT (StokeTrentLive, June 20, 2024)

COVID-19? Heatstroke? Staff on sick leave?
All of the above?

It's strange that the article doesn't say why so many beds are currently blocked.

 

[Pixel42]

COVID-19? Heatstroke? Staff on sick leave?
All of the above?

It's strange that the article doesn't say why so many beds are currently blocked.

Because the patients in them, though no longer requiring hospital care, are not yet ready to cope on their own at home, and there are no carers/care home places for them. That's the usual reason.

 

[dann]

That is probably part of it. The article says that declaring a critical incident "gives NHS bosses additional powers to speed up the discharge of more medically-fit patients."
However, it doesn't explain why they are there in the first place, i.e. why hospitals "are currently experiencing extremely high demand for all our services."

If the reason (or one of the reasons) is C19, sending them back to nursing homes while still infectious but "more medically fit" will only exacerbate the situation - as illustrated in the miniseries Breathtaking.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

COVID-19? Heatstroke? Staff on sick leave?
All of the above?

It's strange that the article doesn't say why so many beds are currently blocked.

Not strange, just part of the effort to deny that the virus is still a problem.

As I have said before, it doesn't take a huge number of cases to put stress on hospitals. Every covid patient is displacing another patient who needs some other treatment. With covid now deemed 'just another virus' (as if that were true) of course they will be pushing them out to make way for more 'deserving' cases - especially if the patients are old.

Whether still considered a pandemic or not, Covid's not going away. That means it will continue to be an extra drain on medical resources. If the next pandemic isn't handled much better (which it won't be) it will add more strain on the system. Eventually we may have to choose between having an affective health system and a 'healthy' economy.

Add in the effects of global warming and things are going to get pretty rough for those who live long enough to see it.

On the good news front, the latest surge in New Zealand appears to be waning (though wastewater detections remain high). My brother and his partner have both recovered. I helped him change a light fitting yesterday so I'm hoping any covid lying around at his place is dead. We are in the middle of winter now but this surge didn't last long, which is a good sign. Also reinfections have gone down a bit. I hope that trend continues too!

 

[Pixel42]

That is probably part of it.

That's the definition of bed blocking:

Bed blocking is a major problem within NHS hospitals across the UK, with thousands of patients sitting in hospital beds facing a ‘delayed discharge’ until the necessary next stage of their care becomes available. A delay may be non-availability of a temporary or permanent space in a residential home, or rehabilitation unit, or a smaller community hospital, or lack of a supportive care package for their return home.

The article didn't need to explain the term because everyone in the UK knows what bed blocking is.

 

[The Atheist]

Not strange, just part of the effort to deny that the virus is still a problem.

Very few people are denying it's a problem. The only argument seems to be what to do about it.

What do you suggest?

My opinion is that it's a minor problem, and more importantly, is impossible to mitigate.

If you think that's wrong, do let me know, because the "ideas" proposed by Dann and Michael Baker are unworkable nonsense. It's an absolute fact that the enormous majority of people won't wear masks, and if you think trying to make them compulsory is a good or workable idea, I'd ask what planet you've been on for the past 4 years.

 

[dann]

UK

That's the definition of bed blocking:
The article didn't need to explain the term because everyone in the UK knows what bed blocking is.

And as I said, "That's probably part of it."

The Covid rise is thought to be due to a combination of waning immunity and the rapid spread of an emerging variant.
UK at risk of new Covid summer wave as hospitalizations jump by 24% in week (iNews.co.uk, June 20, 2024)

The emerging variant mentioned is KP.3.

 

[dann]

USA

In other parts of the world, another variant already appears to be about to take over from KP.1.1, KP.2, and KP.3:

A summertime wave of COVID-19 infections is arriving earlier than last year across a growing share of the country, federal data suggests, as a new variant called LB.1 could be on track to become the latest dominant strain of the virus.
For the first time in months, the CDC estimates that no states or territories are seeing COVID-19 infections slow this past week. Key virus indicators appear to be worsening fastest across a number of western states, where trends first began climbing this month.
Levels of virus detections in wastewater from the western region, often an early signal of rising COVID-19 cases, are already near the threshold the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deems to be "high" levels of infection risk. Nursing home COVID-19 cases had also accelerated in recent weeks from this region.
(...)
The rise of LB.1 and KP.3 variants
COVID-19 cases are picking up at the same time that the CDC says it is tracking two new variants growing in proportion nationwide. Scientists call them KP.3 and LB.1.
KP.3 has reached roughly a third of cases nationwide, up from 25% two weeks ago, and LB.1 makes up 17.5% of cases, as of the CDC's "Nowcast" projections published Friday.
Both are displacing a close relative, a so-called "FLiRT" variant called KP.2, which had risen to dominance last month. The CDC's projections so far have LB.1 starting to grow at a faster rate than KP.3, suggesting LB.1 might overtake KP.3.
(...)
Since the FDA's meeting [about which variants to target with the next batch of vaccines], the CDC has begun to track KP.3 and LB.1's rise to overtake KP.2.
COVID summer wave grows, especially in West, with new variant LB.1 on the rise (CBS News, June 21, 2024)

 

[dann]

NZ

Wellington Regional Hospital has warned the respiratory bug season is putting demand on its services after opening a Covid-19 ward for the first time in three years.
Health New Zealand Te Whatu Ora Capital, Coast and Hutt Valley has reported an increase in Covid-19 cases in recent weeks.
Hospital and specialist services group director operations Jamie Duncan said a dedicated ward was opened to accommodate Covid-19 inpatients from May 31 to June 11.
This is the first time the hospital has had a dedicated Covid-19 clinical area since 2021, Duncan said.
“While a dedicated ward for Covid-19 inpatients is no longer required, we continue to see increasing numbers of people testing positive for respiratory illnesses.
(...)
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank has said the country’s sixth wave is likely close to its peak but a tricky new variant already accounting for a third of cases could see it roll on into winter.
Wellington Hospital opens first Covid-19 ward in three years, warns of spike in respiratory bugs (NZ Herald, June 17, 2024)

"We continue to see increasing numbers of people testing positive for respiratory illnesses," and yet "a dedicated ward for Covid-19 inpatients is no longer required."
Hmmm.

And then there's:

Overseas visitor arrival numbers were up slightly in April compared to a year before but still short of pre-pandemic levels.
(...)
Stats NZ said overall visitor arrivals for the month were 73 per cent of the pre-Covid number of 307,400 in April 2019.
Travel stats show tourist arrivals up but still below pre-Covid rates (NZ Herald, June 12, 2024)

What could make people travel less during a pandemic if, as claimed by minimizers,

nobody cares.

Wasn't everybody supposed to jump on the opportunity to compensate for the alleged 'draconic lockdowns' now that the pandemic is allegedly over? How come the number of tourists hasn't instead doubled in comparison to 2019?

 

[dann]

Poll

I wish I could give you evidence in the form of a reliable poll about this, but polls about people's knowledge about and attitude to pandemic issues have also been discontinued.

I haven't seen any in my own country,* but I see that they haven't been entirely discontinued everywhere:

A majority of Americans say that several key policies to stop the spread of COVID-19 were generally a good idea in hindsight, according to a new national poll by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the de Beaumont Foundation. The poll also found, however, that views varied across policies, and many say the policies had negative impacts.
(...)
A majority of Americans say four key pandemic policies were “generally a good idea” in retrospect (Figure 1), including those related to:

Mask requirements in stores and businesses – 70%
Healthcare worker vaccination requirements – 65%
Indoor dining closures – 63%
K-12 public school closures – 56%
Forty-two percent of Americans say all four policies were a good idea and another third (37%) say only some were a good idea. Only 20% say all were “generally a bad idea.”
Poll: Majority of Americans say key COVID-19 policies were a good idea—but views of individual policies vary (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, June 17, 2024)

However, some people are white Republicans:

Views on these pandemic policies vary by subgroup characteristics, including political party affiliation, race, ethnicity, and metropolitan status. The percentage who say all four policies were generally a good idea:

Democrats (71%); Independents (44%); Republicans (18%)Black adults (62%); Hispanic/Latino adults (55%); white adults (32%)People living in urban areas (55%); suburban areas (39%); rural areas (29%)

See the poll report for full findings.

*I suspect that polls may have been carried out but not published because they didn't support the idea that everybody suddenly turned anti-maskers as soon as the pandemic was supposed to be over even though the mask mandate (on public transport and indoor public settings like food stores) had been supported by the vast majority of Danes.


ETA: A couple of X comments:

WOW. I knew there were numbers like this in mid 2021. The fact there are STILL numbers like this...it shows most people are reasonable, they just need leaders to lead.
Mask Wearing Doggie (X, June 24, 2024)

it's so annoying how loud those other people are and how unduly they influence our politics...
it's barely a quarter of people but our media thinks they are all that matters...and it goes without saying they are almost all white
ExileOnFletchStreet is a Maddock (X, June 24, 2024)

The policy of letting a narcissistic man-baby politicize health and safety measures was probably a bad idea, in hindsight.
Random Individual (X, June 24, 2024)

Insane how the MAGAs fought-especially against masks, such a simple thing that MIGHT help keep yourself and others from getting sick. I’m not a Dr, but seems like they use masks in hospital settings for a reason? The pandemic showed people’s true selves, that’s for sure.
skontheisland (X, June 24, 2024)

Most people realise we live in a society and need to help each other but not everyone.
alphabetsoup (X, June 24, 2024)

I bet if those Americans were aware of: 1) how much #Covid STILL spreading, much like during (official) #pandemic, AND 2) the major long-term organ damage caused by 'mild' Covid...
they'd STILL support requiring masks in health settings, and encouraging masking in many places...
Jane "Mask Up, Get Vaccinated &Vote Early" Doe (X, June 24, 2024)

The MAGA numbers would have been higher except dead people were unable to participate.
Gai Schlofen (X, June 24, 2024)

 

[The Atheist]

Wasn't everybody supposed to jump on the opportunity to compensate for the alleged 'draconic lockdowns' now that the pandemic is allegedly over? How come the number of tourists hasn't instead doubled in comparison to 2019?

Ignorance is strength.

It has - NZ is an outlier. People are not avoiding travel and numbers are still increasing.

https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-to-reach-pre-pandemic-levels-in-2024

Cherry-picking data to support your ignorant conclusion fails yet again.

 

[The Atheist]

More utter tosh that you think confirms your idiotic plan to get people masking up in 2024.

The mitigation measures were during the height of the pandemic when thousands of people were dying daily, so supporting that is a no-brainer.

Ask how they feel about it now, not 4 years ago, before vaccines and antiviral drugs that work.

No matter how much you bleat your continuing panic, nobody is listening, except maybe one other poster in this thread.

 

[marting]

More utter tosh that you think confirms your idiotic plan to get people masking up in 2024.

The mitigation measures were during the height of the pandemic when thousands of people were dying daily, so supporting that is a no-brainer.

Ask how they feel about it now, not 4 years ago, before vaccines and antiviral drugs that work.

No matter how much you bleat your continuing panic, nobody is listening, except maybe one other poster in this thread.

The funny thing is that in the USA, not many people have gotten the latest booster (aka: not up to date) and Paxlovid prescriptions are still few as many doctors are reluctant to prescribe. Even for those over 65. You really have to insist.

Yet, given that, Covid deaths have been declining and last year were lower than a typical Flu season for those under 65. And even for people over 65 (like me and my wife), it's not all that scary. We have to face facts that at our age, we have perhaps a 5% chance each of dying in the next 12 months. And not from Covid-19. Looking at the stats, the large majority of that 5% would not be from Covid-19.

We are going about our business and enjoying life. At least what we have left of it at our age.

That said, I find the coming and going of the variants fascinating and imagine a mental model that combines the variant distribution changes with the probable prevalence to see what variants are increasing/decreasing. And what sub part of the population each variant infects.

It's just my curiosity, as is wondering about how we will react to the next significant pandemic. Not a question of if, but when. But likely after I'm not here.

 

[The Atheist]

The funny thing is that in the USA, not many people have gotten the latest booster (aka: not up to date) and Paxlovid prescriptions are still few as many doctors are reluctant to prescribe. Even for those over 65. You really have to insist.

Vaccination is at very low levels here, but Paxlovid prescriptions are freely available for 65+. (55+ if you're Pasifika or Maori)

Yet, given that, Covid deaths have been declining and last year were lower than a typical Flu season for those under 65. And even for people over 65 (like me and my wife), it's not all that scary. We have to face facts that at our age, we have perhaps a 5% chance each of dying in the next 12 months. And not from Covid-19. Looking at the stats, the large majority of that 5% would not be from Covid-19.

We are going about our business and enjoying life. At least what we have left of it at our age.

That said, I find the coming and going of the variants fascinating and imagine a mental model that combines the variant distribution changes with the probable prevalence to see what variants are increasing/decreasing. And what sub part of the population each variant infects.

We are firmly on the same page there.

It's just my curiosity, as is wondering about how we will react to the next significant pandemic. Not a question of if, but when. But likely after I'm not here.

I hope it's a long way off, because the pandemic preparation for the next one is zero right now. It's also going to take almost an entire generation to die off before any amount of the public wears masks again, so if one does hit in the meantime, we are truly screwed.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Ignorance is strength.

More utter tosh that you think confirms your idiotic plan to get people masking up in 2024.
The mitigation measures were during the height of the pandemic when thousands of people were dying daily, so supporting that is a no-brainer.
Ask how they feel about it now, not 4 years ago, before vaccines and antiviral drugs that work.
No matter how much you bleat your continuing panic, nobody is listening, except maybe one other poster in this thread.

So let me see, where did I leave off before The Atheist started bleating his utter tosh about his idiotic plan to make the virus go away by means of herd hybrid immunity - much like in Florida:

In South Florida, we’ve been gathering and rallying, whether it be for the Florida Panthers Stanley Cup run or for political candidates.
People have also been packing planes, more than ever before, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
The more we move, the more the virus moves with us and spreads among us.
(...)
Experts agree that this summer’s COVID surge likely won’t be the last.
“I don’t think, and I hope, that it doesn’t get to, sort of, where it was, back a few years ago,” said Atallah.
“As the community gets it, people will develop more and more antibodies to it, and hopefully prevent spread of the infection, or severity of illness when they get infected,” said Atallah.
Eckardt added, “Usually, it will die down, and we’ll wait for the next one to come up.”
South Florida COVID cases rise, hospitalizations increase (Local10, July 10, 2024)

Somebody should tell Dr. Atallah that hope is not a strategy, sort of, even though it may be the official strategy of Florida. I'm sure that the double negative wasn't intentional.

USA in general

“The virus tends to replicate well and to stay alive in an environment with warm and moist conditions. That fits with what we’re seeing,” said Dr. Robert Hopkins, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, a nonprofit public health organization. “The South and the West are steamy and hot right now.”
The summer bump has become a familiar seasonal pattern, but experts warn that the coronavirus can still be quite unpredictable. (...) The new vaccines — some that will make the switch to target KP.2 — are anticipated to become available between mid-August and late September. That’s enough time to offer protection during the winter respiratory virus season but probably after this summer’s wave has ebbed. (...) Protection from Covid-19 vaccines wanes, and the timing of the shot prioritizes maximum protection when there have typically been higher and more sustained peaks, Plescia said. Unlike flu and RSV, Covid-19 is constantly circulating; it doesn’t offer a reprieve. “You don’t ever get a break,” he said. “We do get a break from flu and RSV. You get through the season, and then you’re done. You can prepare for the next one. [Covid] is just kind of always there.” A summer wave of Covid-19 has arrived in the US (CNN, June 28, 2024)

Familiar and unpredictable. Great combo! For a moment there, I feared that the virus might have switched from winter to summer, but no, we can have it all year round. Even the CDC is now onboard with this: COVID-19 can surge throughout the year. Canada

It may not be on most people's minds, but COVID-19 is on the rise again in B.C. The B.C. Centre for Disease Control released its monthly data on the disease Thursday, showing 204 test-positive patients in provincial hospitals. It's only the second time all year that the hospitalized population has risen above 200, and the first time since early January. (...) "SARS-CoV-2 levels are elevated in most wastewater sites relative to April," the agency said. "Testing rates are stable in the last six weeks, but detections have increased, in particular in adults 60 years and older." B.C. COVID hospitalizations at highest level since January (CTV News, Vancouver, July 5, 2024)

Testing rates are awfully important. It is so great that they remain stable even though more cases are detected, isn't it?! Nothing serves to calm minimizers down like the occasional use of the word stable. Australia

Experts have sounded a warning over “complex” and highly-transmissible Covid subvariants taking off in Australia — as new data shows the virus is among the nation’s top five killers. Queensland chief health officer John Gerrard told the Courier Mail three sub-variants are now spreading in the state – FLiRT, FLuQE and most recently de-FLiRT. “Due to this mutation, as well as fluctuating community immunity, we are witnessing more than one wave each year,” he said. “Covid-19 has not yet developed a clear seasonal pattern.” ‘Top five’: Shocking Covid stat as cases soar (News.com.au, July 5, 2024)

I hadn't heard about de-FLiRT. FluQE is already old news. UK

UK summer Covid wave: What variants are spreading? (Evening Standard, July 9, 2024)

Portugal

An update on the COVID situation in Portugal: we have now completed 9 weeks of continuous growth in the number of new registered cases of COVID-19, in tune with my personal and professional experience this past week when I expected an improvement but saw none. 1/ Pedro Lérias (x, July 5, 2024)

On average, due to new Covid-19 infections, 12 deaths and 400 new cases a day have been recorded in Portugal. These are the highest numbers in almost two years. (...) According to the DGS, the transmission of the infection shows “an increasing trend,” with 26 seven-day cases per 100,000 inhabitants on the 30th of June, a figure that surpassed the peak recorded in winter (12 seven-day cases per 100,000 inhabitants), but lower than last summer’s peak incidence (42 cases). “The specific mortality due to Covid-19 corresponded to 15 deaths at 14 days per million inhabitants, having exceeded the maximum values obtained in the last winter and summer, respectively 10 and 13 deaths at 14 days per million inhabitants,” the health authority said in a statement. Portugal Heading For New Peak in Covid Cases (Madeira-Weekly, July 6, 2024)

Of course, this won't prevent some people from arguing that the pandemic is over in 3...2...1... Italy

Since we are heading into vacation travel, with crowded trains and planes as well as tourist destinations, wearing a mask remains one of the best defenses.Covid Resurgence in Italy: New KP.3 Subvariant Drives Summer Case Spike (IlMessagero, July 9, 2024)

Denmark It has been on the way with rising numbers since late May, but it now appears to be picking up speed:

After two weeks of a 31% rise in Covid conc. in wastewater each week, there was a 47% rise in the most recent week - at the undefined scale, we are at 'middle level'. The same patter everywhere in the whole country - we are at the beginning of a new wave with new variants & they are running wild Astrid Iversen (X, July 10, 2024)

Graphs in the tweet and here: Resultater af den nationale spildevandsovervågning af SARS‐CoV‐2 (SSI.dk, 10 July, 2024) [/quote] Percentage of positives: 11,5. Hospitalizations also rising, 83 in the past week, seven of them 0-2-year-olds. And apropos of 0-2-year-olds: COVID infection endangers pregnancies and newborns. Why aren't parents being warned? (TheGauntlet, June 21, 2024) It's a good question, but parents aren't being warned because it would make minimizers bleat their continuing panic. Think of the minimizers! Why doesn't anybody think of the minimizers?! (They do! There is much too much consideration for the feelings of minimizing snowflakes.)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Even hosts of late-night shows have noticed that, yes, there is indeed an ongoing pandemic and outright denial is the name of the game:

Maybe I'm not drunk. Maybe I just have Covid like everyone else does right now. I don't know what's happening with Covid again. Half my friends have Covid and the rest have, 'Um I'm sorry you guys, it's allergies.'
Cases are way up here in LA. In fact, I want you to turn to the person to your right right now, and, okay, and then I want you to turn the person to your left, okay. Congratulations, you just gave them both Covid.
The new strain is called FLiRT, which is bananas. Do you remember how we used to be so scared of Covid, and now we're giving it little nicknames that sound like the title of a Hillary Duff movie.

Guest Host Kathryn Hahn is back for the second night and talks about COVID cases being up, everyone being focused on Joe Biden’s mental fitness while the other option is a convicted felon, a wheel from a plane falling off in mid-air, and since we need a broadcast that reports stories with the appropriate level of panic - Kathryn introduces Neurotic News!
Trump and Biden are NOT the Same, Syphilis Skyrockets and We Need Ben & JLo to Work!

 

[The Atheist]

The pandemic will never be over as long as there's someone to panic about it.

Covid isn't going away, and nor are your idiotic views on what the world should be doing about it.

Tedious.

 

[Trausti]

The pandemic will never be over as long as there's someone to panic about it.

Covid isn't going away, and nor are your idiotic views on what the world should be doing about it.

Tedious.

Covid must have seemed like heaven to hypochondriacs.

 

[The Atheist]

Covid must have seemed like heaven to hypochondriacs.

It still is.

Long covid is not able to be clinically tested and the sole diagnosis is based on self-reported symptoms.

I'm sure there are people who suffer from long-term damage by the virus, just as they do with other viruses, but it's a very handy rabbit to pull out of the hat if you want an excuse or sympathy.