How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Hong Kong is obviously not the only place "where covid is rife":

With three out of four Europeans planning on travelling over the summer, the era of border closures, mandatory testing and vaccine certificates seems a half-remembered nightmare to many. But with more than 1,700 people still dying every week across the world from Covid-19 and vaccine coverage declining among at-risk populations, according to the WHO, the pandemic isn't something that can just be spoken about in the past tense.
As Europe prepares for summer holidays, WHO warns that the Covid-19 era is far from over (France24, July 15, 2024)

Talking about the pandemic in the past sense is just sooo May 1,2024!
Some people may prefer to believe that the world has moved on from COVID-19, but COVID-19 hasn't moved on from the world, obviously.

 

[marting]

Some people may prefer to believe that the world has moved on from COVID-19, but COVID-19 hasn't moved on from the world, obviously.

"Some people?" Pretty obviously most everyone has moved on.

And Covid-19 certainly hasn't moved on. It's already infected most people vaxxed or not. The vaxxed were much less likely to have died or been seriously ill.

But at this point it's clearly well into the endemic stage. It's so infectious and humoral immunity is so short it's just not possible to stop and will join the crowd of other circulating corona viruses. Luckily, it's IFR has dropped more than an order of magnitude.

 

[dann]

Moved on ... yes, moved on to pretending and/or actually believing that the pandemic is over.

Some of them even believe that getting vaxxed is more dangerous than getting infected, an idea encouraged by guys like Vinay Prasad and ZDoggMD. Some believe that getting infected again isn't so bad because of the 'natural immunity' that their first bout with COVID-19 is supposed to have given them (with or without sequelae), but as mentioned in post 1,007, they are probably wrong:
Study suggests reinfections from the virus that causes COVID-19 likely have similar severity as original infection (NIH, July 11, 2024)
‘Playing COVID roulette’: Some infected by FLiRT variants report their most unpleasant symptoms yet (L.A.Times, July 8, 2024)
That is the new meaning of having moved on.

That the spread of the infection is "just not possible to stop" is a lie that the We-Want-Them-Infected crowd are celebrating like a victory against attempts to avoid infection. For some reason, they have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that there are other kinds of mitigation than vaccines and Paxlovid. They hate nothing more than face masks because they make it so conspicuous that a debilitating virus is spreading.

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

Full of good advice for people who think that the world has moved on:

COVID is continuing to rise this summer, and its spread is being aided by people who are still going to work or traveling while sick.
Rising COVID clashes with carefree California summer as cases jump, precautions fade (LA Times, July 16, 2024)

 

[marting]

Moved on ... yes, moved on to pretending and/or actually believing that the pandemic is over.

Some of them even believe that getting vaxxed is more dangerous than getting infected, an idea encouraged by guys like Vinay Prasad and ZDoggMD.

Neither of them believe that. They both believe vax for the elderly has more benefit than risk. However, Prasad is convinced booster vaxes do more harm than good for young males. For a wider age range he complains that RCTs weren't done to risk/benefit stratify where the benefits clearly outweighed risk. Still, Prasad is on the edge and I consider his opinions marginal.

Some believe that getting infected again isn't so bad because of the 'natural immunity' that their first bout with COVID-19 is supposed to have given them (with or without sequelae), but as mentioned in post 1,007, they are probably wrong:
Study suggests reinfections from the virus that causes COVID-19 likely have similar severity as original infection (NIH, July 11, 2024)
‘Playing COVID roulette’: Some infected by FLiRT variants report their most unpleasant symptoms yet (L.A.Times, July 8, 2024)
That is the new meaning of having moved on.

Would be nice if headline writers engaged in less click bait. For instance, the actual paper's headline is this:

Insights from an N3C RECOVER EHR-based cohort study characterizing SARS-CoV-2 reinfections and Long COVID
And its summary is this:

Conclusions
In a large patient cohort, we find that the severity of reinfection appears to be associated with the severity of initial infection and that Long COVID diagnoses appear to occur more often following initial infection than reinfection in the same epoch. Future research may build on these findings to better understand COVID-19 reinfections.

This makes sense. That a subsequent re-infection is more likely to be serious when the initial infection was serious (as opposed to mild) seems quite reasonable. And the good news is that, regardless of severity, the risk of long covid decreases on re-infection compared to initial infection.

But there's more. The paper's definition of "infection" is quite limited. Especially with the advent of rapid tests and home uses thereof which aren't reported. So there has been an increase in the percentages of people infected, but not reported as infected. Their study only had 6.9% re-infections. Pretty clear actual re-infections including asymptomatic and unreported at home testing is much higher. The notion that the click bait headline propagates that re-infection is as dangerous as initial infection is obviously wrong.

Here's a blurb from their limitations:

A fifth limitation is that the definition of reinfection only considers PCR or antigen tests after the COVID index date and does not consider COVID-19 ICD-10 diagnoses that occur in the EHR after the index date. We explored the inclusion of the COVID-19 ICD-10 diagnosis codes as reinfections but observed a dramatic and likely unrealistic increase in the number of patients with 5 or more supposed reinfections using this expanded definition. With available data, it was impossible to determine which new uses of a COVID-19 ICD-10 diagnosis code at a visit to the EHR reflected a new reinfection or new COVID symptoms as opposed to documentation of a historical experience that occurred at some unknown time prior to the visit. Authors chose to prioritize reinfections confirmed through testing with the acknowledgement that this decision likely undercounts reinfection.

Yeah, so what's your magic solution to this?

That the spread of the infection is "just not possible to stop" is a lie that the We-Want-Them-Infected crowd are celebrating like a victory against attempts to avoid infection. For some reason, they have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that there are other kinds of mitigation than vaccines and Paxlovid. They hate nothing more than face masks because they make it so conspicuous that a debilitating virus is spreading.

You have posted earlier that Covid-19 is far more infectious than influenza. Gee, last I heard we haven't eradicated that and just live with the flu even though it kills a lot of people each year. If we had a snowball's chance in hell of eradicating Covid-19 by NPIs we would have gotten rid of influenza a long time ago.

So yeah, looks like we're stuck with Covid-19 even if we all wish that weren't the case.

 

[dann]

I'll get back the rest of your post later this week. I have something else mainly for the Danes today. But for now just this:

Neither of them believe that. They both believe vax for the elderly has more benefit than risk. However, Prasad is convinced booster vaxes do more harm than good for young males.

It's a strange way to contradict what I wrote, about the two guys claiming that "getting vaxxed is more dangerous than getting infected," by confirming that one of them claims that "booster vaxes do more harm than good for young males." He does much more than that. See the many links to Science-Based Medicine articles about the antivaxxer Vinay Prasad that I included in post 1,006.

Yesterday, Danish TV2.dk acknowledged that
Smitten med corona "stiger meget kraftigt"
"Very steep rise" in the number of COVID-19 infections

Flere indlæggelser end sidste sommer
Smitte med coronavirus bølger generelt frem og tilbage – også om sommeren. Det var også tilfældet sidste år, men her nåede samfundssmitten først det nuværende niveau i efterårsmånederne.

More hospitalizations than last summer
Waves of coronavirus are generally coming and going - also in the summertime. That was also the case last year, but then the social contamination didn't reach the current level until autumn.

The article doesn't mention any numbers, but there is a link to this article with graphs:
Overvågning af influenza, covid-19, RS-virus og andre luftvejssygdomme (SSI.dk, July 17, 2024)

I have to go to another site to find out that the number of hospitalizations was 139 in the most recent 7 days. It was 83 the week before that. The percentage of positives is no 15.9. If I remember correctly, it was 11.5% the previous week.
One of the official minimizers answered questions for TV2.dk yesterday. I asked two questions, which were ignored. Two examples of the usefulness of the answers to questions that weren't ignored:
An asthmatic who is allergic to penicillin asks what she's supposed to do now when the numbers are already rising. The answer: "I recommend that you get vaccinated in the fall."
And another Q&A:

Pia:
Jeg har sclerose og skal afsted på en sommerlejr med mere end 400 deltagere, og vi skal bo i telte. Stort set alle aktiviteter foregår udendørs - er det nok for mig at holde afstand, have god håndhygiejne og de andre gode råd? Eller bør jeg blive hjemme? Jeg har fået alle tilbudte vaccinationer.
Svar
Kære Pia
Tag endelig afsted, og rigtig god tur.
Hilsen Bolette
Coronasmitten stiger kraftigt herhjemme (TV2.dk, July 17, 2024)

Pia: I have sclerosis and I'll be going to summer camp with more than 400 participants. We'll be sleeping in tents. Almost all activities are outdoors - is it enough if I practice social distancing, wash my hands and follow the other good advice? O should I stay home? I have had all the vaccinations I was eligible for.
Answer: Dear Pia
Do go ahead with it and have a nice trip.
/Bolette
(Her last vaccination would probably have been in late September/early October, i.e. more than nine months ago.

In the meantime, Tour de France cyclists, and journalists and officials have been told to mask up - even though almost all Tour de France activities take place outdoors! About face masks, Bolette says:

Der er i Danmark ikke – som under pandemien – en særlig anbefaling om brug af mundbind. Ifølge Bolette Søborg må det derfor være op til danskerne selv, om de synes mundbindet er tryghedsskabende.

Unlike during the pandemic (!), there is no recommendation of face masks in Denmark. According to Bolette Søborg, it is therefore up to the Danes to decide if they think that masking up makes them feel safe.
In the meantime, an awful lot of experts are busy washing their hands.

 

[dann]

Portugal

Portugal has a daily average of 12 deaths from Covid-19 and close to 400 new cases, a number that has almost tripled since the end of May, according to epidemiologist Manuel Carmo Gomes.
Portugal Covid-19 cases continue to increase (Portugal News, July 4, 2024)

72 deaths in the first week of July, 80 in the second week.
The 87 C19 deaths in the last week of June was the highest number since July 2022.

 

[dann]

I may have mentioned the study before but it deserves being repeated:

A new study in The Lancet demonstrates that face coverings dramatically reduce the load of SARS-CoV-2 in exhaled breath from infected persons. The reductions reached as high as 98 percent, with variations according to the type of face covering worn.
Study reaffirms that masks prevent COVID-19 transmission (WSWS, July 19, 2024)

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

President Joe Biden: "The pandemic is over." (Sep 20, 2022)
The pandemic (KP.2.3): "President Joe Biden is over." (July 20, 2024)

A sudden surge of the virus is a stark reminder of two things: The pandemic isn’t over, and it could be part of the referendum on the Biden presidency.

My holiday experience probably resembled that of many others: waiting in line at the airport, listening to the hacks of people coughing all around me, mostly unmasked. The cognitive dissonance feels hard to overstate. We are still officially in a pandemic, even now, four years since the novel coronavirus first emerged. We know that Covid-19 is airborne and that wearing a mask is the most effective way to prevent airborne particles from being transmitted. We know that 1,600 people a week are currently dying from Covid-19 (and more than 2,000 last week), and that it’s no ordinary flu, with tens of millions of Americans and counting experiencing long-term debilitating symptoms.

Despite all we could have learned about how a broken system left us vulnerable to this virus, despite the clear fixes that might protect us against future calamity, and despite the sense of solidarity toward helping others stay well that accompanied the early pandemic, it feels as though we’ve learned nothing from the experience.
Democrats Can’t Keep Ignoring Covid in 2024 (New Republic, Jan 9, 2024)

biden has stopped properly tracking covid rates, has not ensured covid boosters free to all who need them, has not indefinitely ensured available paxlovid free to all who needs it, has not continued to fund sufficient testing or masking. **** him til the end of time.
soul khan (X, July 21, 2024)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Does our Belgium Olympic committee @teambelgium know something our government doesn't? Smart move: #mask #C19 #løngCovid

Belgian Olympians' face masks are also back: "It would be a shame to see everything ruined after three years of hard training."
Now that corona is doing the rounds and causing challenges in the Tour de France, the fear among Belgian Olympians is also growing to contract the virus just before the start of the games.

Harry Spoelstra (X, July 21, 2024)

The Australian swimming team has been dragged into a bizarre storm ahead of the Olympics after arriving in Paris with face masks.
The star-studded squad of 41 swimmers touched down in the French capital this week before moving their headquarters to Chartres, a one-hour drive from the City of Light.
The Dolphins took the added precaution of wearing protective face masks as they made their long-awaited arrival following their recent camp in the south of France after flying out from Australia last month.
The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade still “strongly encourages” Australians travelling abroad to mask up.
French health authorities also continue to recommend masks be worn “in enclosed and small spaces, and at large gatherings”.
The Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) has informed news.com.au that athletes have been advised to wear masks in crowded indoor spaces, including on transportation and during meetings, on the advice of AOC medical director Dr Carolyn Broderick.
This is only a recommendation; masks are not compulsory for the 460 Australian athletes who will compete in France.
Aussie swimming team in bizarre storm before Paris Olympics (News.com.au, July 17, 2024)

It's weird, isn't it?! They're young and strong, so they should have nothing to worry about, no reason to take any precautions. Allegedly.

Bike race: returns to precautions.
Olympic teams: return to precautions.
Hollywood shows: return to precautions.
HCW seeing your respirator: refuses to wear one and makes note of psychosis in your chart.
Left Coast Ⓥ #CovidIsAirborne (X, July 21, 2024)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

COVID Rates Are Rising Again. Why Does It Spread So Well in the Summer? (Scientific American, July 16, 2024)
Covid Cases Are Rising Again. Here's What to Know. (New York Times, June 3, updated July 17, 2024)
What's the Risk of Getting Long COVID in 2024? (Time, July 17, 2024)
Caught by surprise: How covid summer is affecting the D.C. region (Washington Post, July 18, 2024)
KP.3 COVID variant holds strong, KP.3.1.1 emerges (USA Today, July 20, 2024)
Why Covid-19 is spreading this summer (BBC, July 21, 2022)

 

[dann]

Denmark:

One of the official minimizers answered questions for TV2.dk yesterday. I asked two questions, which were ignored. Two examples of the usefulness of the answers to questions that weren't ignored:
An asthmatic who is allergic to penicillin asks what she's supposed to do now when the numbers are already rising. The answer: "I recommend that you get vaccinated in the fall."
And another Q&A:

Pia: I have sclerosis and I'll be going to summer camp with more than 400 participants. We'll be sleeping in tents. Almost all activities are outdoors - is it enough if I practice social distancing, wash my hands and follow the other good advice? O should I stay home? I have had all the vaccinations I was eligible for.
Answer: Dear Pia
Do go ahead with it and have a nice trip.
/Bolette
(Her last vaccination would probably have been in late September/early October, i.e. more than nine months ago.

In the meantime, Tour de France cyclists, and journalists and officials have been told to mask up - even though almost all Tour de France activities take place outdoors! About face masks, Bolette says:

Unlike during the pandemic (!), there is no recommendation of face masks in Denmark. According to Bolette Søborg, it is therefore up to the Danes to decide if they think that masking up makes them feel safe.
In the meantime, an awful lot of experts are busy washing their hands.

The same Danish expert, Bolette Søborg, who advised an asthmatic who is allergic to penicillin to get vaccinated in October and a woman with sclerosis to go ahead with her plans of joining others for a summer camp, has this to say about the Danish Olympic team:

Det er klart, at når der er aktuelt pågående smitte, er der en risiko for, at man kan blive syg. Også når man er tæt sammen. Så det er klart, at det er noget, jeg tænker, man vil tage højde for.
Og håndspritten er netop et af de greb, der er gode at tage i brug, hvis smitten skal holdes på afstand, forklarer hun.
Goodiebags med håndsprit: Danske OL-atleter holder øje med coronasmitten (DR.dk, July 20, 2024)

It is obvious that in a situation with a high level of infection, there is a risk that you may get ill. Also when many share a tight space. So this is clearly something that I think they will take into consideration.
And hand sanitizer is one of those tools that are useful to keep the infection at bay, she explains.
Goodie bags with hand sanitizer: Danish Olympic athletes are keeping an eye on the corona infection

So no recommendation of face masks for Danish athletes - or for asthmatics or sclerosis patients. She is worse than useless.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

California:

Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater now exceed last summer’s peak, an indication of the rapid spread of the super-contagious new FLiRT strains.
(...)
Coronavirus levels in wastewater are also surging in Los Angeles County — and the rate of increase has been accelerating. The county also has seen notable jumps this month in newly confirmed infections, coronavirus-positive hospitalizations and the share of emergency room visits attributable to COVID-19.
(...)
“If you call — I don’t know — 20 or 30 friends, you’re very, very likely to find a bunch of them actually have COVID, or have had COVID recently, or are starting to be symptomatic,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, a COVID expert and chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System in Missouri.
(...)
Some recently infected people have described painful COVID symptoms, such as a throat that feels like it’s studded with razor blades. Overall, however, there are no indications the FLiRT subvariants are associated with increased illness severity that would trigger a substantial increase in hospitalizations.
(...)
COVID hospitalizations are also ticking up, though they remain below last summer’s peak. For the week that ended July 13, there were an average of 287 COVID-positive people per day in L.A. County hospitals, up from 139 for the comparable period a month earlier. Last summer’s peak was the week that ended Sept. 9, when an average of 620 COVID-positive patients were in the region’s hospitals per day.
COVID in California keeps rising: Wastewater levels worse than last summer (LA Times, July 22, 2024)

It doesn't mention what the definition of "a substantial increase in hospitalizations" is, but it appears to be more than an uptick from 139 to 287 in a month.

 

[The Atheist]

I'm reminded of that guy who stands on the street corner with a bible every lunchtime exhorting people to repent because the end is nigh.

 

[dann]

The Atheist's posts remind me of the neuropsychiatric sequelae of COVID-19:
New-Onset Hyperreligiosity, Demonic Hallucinations, and Apocalyptic Delusions following COVID-19 Infection (National Library of Medicine, Feb 23, 2023)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Netherlands:

The number of coronavirus particles found in the sewage is 14 times higher than at this time last year.
New Covid-19 variant quickly spreading through NL; Biggest summer outbreak since 2021 (NL Times, July 23, 2024)

 

[novaphile]

A second member of the Australian women's water polo team has tested positive to COVID-19 ahead of the Paris Olympics.

https://www.espn.com.au/olympics/st...lian-water-polo-olympians-test-positive-covid

Sure sucks to be an athlete right now.

Here's hoping that it doesn't become the Covolympics.

 

[The Atheist]

Sure sucks to be an athlete right now.

Why?

Here's hoping that it doesn't become the Covolympics.

Every Olympics has outbreaks of disease - it's what happens when you cram several thousand people together.

Beijing had an enormous outbreak of norovirus and cost several athletes medals. **** happens, and people live with it.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I'm reminded of that guy who stands on the street corner with a bible every lunchtime exhorting people to repent because the end is nigh.

Why?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Happy to report that I am still untouched by Covid. However my streak of being virus free since November 2019 is over as of last week, when a common cold virus got me. Luckily it was fairly mild and I am now 'over' it - feels good to be alive again!

Only two places I could have picked it up from, the supermarket or the blood test clinic. Starting to think seriously about getting my groceries delivered.