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How do we know a pandemic's over?

The problem is that a new variant is on the rise that laughs at vaccines and will rip though the country like wildfire if people don't take precautions - which they won't because 'the pandemic's over'.

Except that's clearly not happening. Even Chief Panic Officer Michael Baker admits the wave is peaking or has peaked, so all that worry is bollocks. It's now abundantly clear that reinfections lower the risk of both catching covid and getting sick from it.


Aside from proving my point about only the old and frail dying, a pragmatic approach should see it as a blessing in disguise. The world is facing an old fart crisis, with pensions paid from a shrinking tax base and serious lack of age-care workers. Covid is doing what needs to be done - knocking some of them off a year early.

9/10 deaths over the age of 65 sounds sweet when you are younger, but there's no guarantee it will stay that way. If you think you're bullet proof due to not being 'old and frail', think again. This virus could get a lot more deadly before it... before... ugh

The trajectory of successive smaller and weaker waves and the way viruses evolve say your worry is groundless.

J. N. Omicron the 3rd here. Ignore that frail old poster's fevered ramblings. I'm here to tell you that Covid is nothing to worry about - the Pandemic's over! Our Its only goal now is to cull the herd of frail old people who will be dead in a few weeks anyway - not you. Honest! We would really appreciate you spreading us the word. Covid is just another friendly virus that kills people coexists peacefully with mankind. :D :thumbsup: :p

Many a true word spoken in jest.

There were about 80,000 people at the rugby on the weekend. I didn't see a single mask.
 
Except that's clearly not happening. Even Chief Panic Officer Michael Baker admits the wave is peaking or has peaked, so all that worry is bollocks. It's now abundantly clear that reinfections lower the risk of both catching covid and getting sick from it.


It is so incredibly stupid that it borders on insanity to make up lies like this!
Reinfections obviously don't lower the risk of catching the disease and getting sick from it. The definition of reinfections is catching the disease again. The absurd logic of this insane statement is that the more times you are infected, the less likely it is that you will get infected again.
And yet, we know of cases like this one:
Ed Sheeran says Covid symptoms were 'pretty gnarly' (BBC, Oct 29, 2021)
Ed Sheeran has managed to contract Covid at least seven times, thanks to constant travel and his children.
Interview: https://rollingstone.com/music/musi...ubtract-tour-cover-story-interview-1234694319
(Rolling Stone (X, Mar 21, 2023)
Besides, whenever you catch COVID-19, you risk getting Long Covid. Every infection, new or old, makes it more likely that you will get a chronic disease.

But don't worry about Ed Sheeran's (or anybody else's) health: Reinfections allegedly protect you from reinfections, so Ed Sheeran will never get infected again. He was almost there after the sixth infection, but with the seventh he has just got to have achieved life-long immunity. (The irony is that The Atheist knows that the virus is mutating and evolving as he shows below:

Aside from proving my point about only the old and frail dying, a pragmatic approach should see it as a blessing in disguise. The world is facing an old fart crisis, with pensions paid from a shrinking tax base and serious lack of age-care workers. Covid is doing what needs to be done - knocking some of them off a year early.


This piece of insanity makes it obvious that there is no brain-fart crisis. There are far too many of them in this thread alone and in social media in general.
There is a lack of age-care workers for the same reason that there is a lack of teachers and hospital staff: Working-age people are on sick leave, acute due to infections and reinfections or chronic due to Long Covid. Miserable wages and working conditions also contribute to staff leaving - in particular during the recurring C19 waves, which C19 causes.
I am no longer astonished when The Atheist presents the cause of the problem as the solution to the problem.

The trajectory of successive smaller and weaker waves and the way viruses evolve say your worry is groundless.


At this point, the virus evolves so fast that recommendations for which new subvariants to target with the vaccines being developed for the fall/winter of 2024 have to be changed just one week later, and even the new recommendation (KP.2) may already be on the verge of being overtaken by KP.3. See post 950.
That the waves are getting "smaller and weaker" is another obvious lie, based on wishful thinking as it is. At least, it should be obvious to the followers of this thread: See post 932.

Many a true word spoken in jest.
There were about 80,000 people at the rugby on the weekend. I didn't see a single mask.


I bet The Atheist's son appreciates the jest of 80,000 not masking up.
 
We Want Them Infected!



I am happy to see that you have given up on defending your nonsense about the San Diego numbers.
And what a hilarious joke! The same word is used for both the kind of masks criminals use to hide their identities and the kind of masks people wear to protect themselves and/or others from infectious aerosols.
What a marvelous pun! Did you come up with it yourself?

It is no wonder that freedom-loving red states are in on the joke and want to make unmasking mandatory:
Bill to ban most public mask wearing, including for health reasons, advances in North Carolina (CBS News, May 17, 2024)
 
Maybe take a break from the basement and go outside where actual people are carrying on with their lives.
Count up the people wearing face masks in your town/city and let me know what percentage of people are wearing them.
If it's over 1%, I will concede you're right and will retreat from the thread.
Visual evidence - photos or videos - will be good.


What a stupid thing to come up with! I have already stated that almost nobody in my town masks up anymore. Maybe The Atheist should take a break from panicking about people who do mask up. Since he doesn't understand English, I'll repeat what I wrote, highlight the important part and elaborate:
"No matter how many times people in this thread, The Atheist included, write about wearing face masks, The Atheist insists that nobody thinks about COVID-19, nobody takes precautions, and when it is apparent that they do, those precautions are deemed ridiculous."
See?! I didn't write 'people in Copenhagen'! I wrote "people in this thread"! Do I have to point out actual examples of this?
Here's one:
I'm glad I stuck to my irrational decision to wear an FFP-3 mask on crowded public transportation when I was in Hamburg last month. Unlike the approximately one-third of the rational unmasked passengers around me who were coughing, I didn't get sick.
There are more, but I don't think more would convince The Atheist that they are there even though he actually responded to jt512's post, but being in denial, he must have forgotten about it.

Nonsense figures from a site that isn't using the actual number of deaths caused by covid.
You know this, because I've showed you at least a dozen times, so you continue to lie to preserve your idiotic narrative.
Please do continue, it's good for a laugh.


That one thousand people in New Zealand have died from Covid-19 in the last 12 months is no doubt good for a laugh in The Atheist's case. However, the joke is on the guy who claimed that Omicron deaths were "going to be much lower than ["~500 a year"]".
And that was more than two years ago.
This is now:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand in the last 12 months (Our World in Data)
 
I've just been looking through Euro 24 pics and I see tens of thousands of people and not one mask in sight.
It's going to be a super-super-spreading event - I suggest panicking immediately.
I should probably downgrade the 1% to 0.1% for fairness.
I zoomed in on this Copenhagen crowd from January and can't see a single mask and there are a hell of a lot of people there: https://www.alamy.com/copenhagen-de...s-rasmussenritzau-scanpix-image592687189.html
Probably 0.01% even.


Since it was outdoors, it wouldn't have been "a super-super-spreading event," unlike an indoor Taylor Swift concert (see post 926), but I would still have recommended wearing an FFP2 face mask to an event where people stand as close as they did in this case.
I don't doubt that The Atheist "can't see a single mask" in the photo he links to. They are actually there, but there are far too few of them, unfortunately.
 
We Want Them Infected!

Now you're being unfair to The Atheist:
J. N. Omicron the 3rd here. Ignore that frail old poster's fevered ramblings. I'm here to tell you that Covid is nothing to worry about - the Pandemic's over! Our Its only goal now is to cull the herd of frail old people who will be dead in a few weeks anyway - not you. Honest! We would really appreciate you spreading us the word. Covid is just another friendly virus that kills people coexists peacefully with mankind. :D :thumbsup: :p


You are not entirely wrong: Sometimes, that's the argument that The Atheist resorts to when the numbers clearly show that Covid not only kills but actually kills far more people than the flu. Most of the time, however, he claims that the virus is actually good for people without making any distinctions between young and old! He claims that the infection protects them from the infection!
t's now abundantly clear that reinfections lower the risk of both catching covid and getting sick from it.
It is abundantly clear that his posts are as rambling and bereft of truth as a Trump speech about UV light, disinfectants, windmills, magnets, batteries and sharks.
 
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It is so incredibly stupid that it borders on insanity to make up lies like this!
Reinfections obviously don't lower the risk of catching the disease and getting sick from it.

Sorry mate, the insanity is ignoring the science.

Infection and reinfection clearly lower the risk, according to WHO, and I'll believe them rather than some ignorant comment posted by an amateur on the internet:

“One infection does protect you against future infections” but not completely, says Jamie Rylance, a physician on the World Health Organization’s clinical management team.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...-repeat-covid-infections-what-we-know-so-far/

And yet, we know of cases like this one:

Yes, one case negates the science. Duh. You've completely lost the plot - fear does strange things.

... he has just got to have achieved life-long immunity...

Now, that's really funny. First off you mention lies, then come out with the whopper that I ever suggested lifelong immunity.

Well played!

I bet The Atheist's son appreciates the jest of 80,000 not masking up.

He's 100% happy about it and doesn't expect the entire world to mask up for his sake.

Why are you so scared of this virus?

What a stupid thing to come up with! I have already stated that almost nobody in my town masks up anymore.

Point proven - nobody cares.

They should listen to you, amirite?

That one thousand people in New Zealand have died from Covid-19 in the last 12 months is ...

Just false.

Since it was outdoors, it wouldn't have been "a super-super-spreading event,"...


Does not recognise humour, either.
 
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Sorry mate, the insanity is ignoring the science.
Infection and reinfection clearly lower the risk, according to WHO, and I'll believe them rather than some ignorant comment posted by an amateur on the internet:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...-repeat-covid-infections-what-we-know-so-far/

Yes, one case negates the science. Duh. You've completely lost the plot - fear does strange things.

Now, that's really funny. First off you mention lies, then come out with the whopper that I ever suggested lifelong immunity.
Well played!

He's 100% happy about it and doesn't expect the entire world to mask up for his sake.
Why are you so scared of this virus?

Point proven - nobody cares.
They should listen to you, amirite?

Just false.

Does not recognise humour, either.


1) Infection is infection. It is not a thing that lowers the risk of infection. It leaves people with some immunity, but reinfection, which is what he was talking about, is the best proof that the protection it offers is very limited.
It is nothing new that he refers to alleged science that he thinks says what he wishes it says.
It is not surprising that The Atheist doesn't provide us with the title and headline of the article he links to:
How Risky Are Repeat COVID Infections? What We Know So Far - Four years into the pandemic, many people have had COVID more than once - but the health consequences of repeat infections are not clearThis is what The Atheist summarizes as: "It's now abundantly clear that reinfections lower the risk of both catching covid and getting sick from it."
It is abundantly clear that The Atheist sees what he wants to see and not what is actually there. Nothing but bias and wishful thinking.

2) One case does not negate the science, but it sure as hell does make it clear that when The Atheist claims that something is "abundantly clear," it probably isn't. That "many people have had COVID more than once" stresses the fact.

3) As for never mentioning life-long immunity, I didn't write that The Atheist had claimed that (re)infections gave people life-long immunity, but the example of a guy who has been infected seven times (and that was more than a year ago!) makes it abundantly clear that something is wrong with The Atheist's optimistic claim.
But let us ask him about what his claim is: For how many days, weeks, months do "reinfections lower the risk of both catching covid and getting sick from it"? In Ed Sheeran's case, we are talking about seven C19 infections in sixteen months. It doesn't take a statistician to calculate that this would be less than three months on average between infections. Let me also point out that Ed Sheeran was 30 when he got infected the first time and apparently in good health. I don't know if he still is.

4) Scared of the virus? No, not really. I stay away from places where I expect it to be rampant, and I mask up in indoor places that I can't avoid when the level of contagion is high. The Atheist's anecdote about his son's attitude to the pandemic is evidence of nothing, but for some reason he seems to think that we should believe him.

5) I write that almost nobody in Copenhagen masks up, for some reason The Atheist attempts to prove that "nobody (!) cares." He obviously can't tell the difference between reality and his own hyperbole.

6) It is a fact that "one thousand people in New Zealand have died from Covid-19 in the last 12 months" (or to be exact: 996). And that isn't counting the ones that have died of heart attacks and other sequelae.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand in the last 12 months (Our World in Data)

7) As for jokes, there can be nothing more ridiculous than one of The Atheist's typical posts.
That he always cherry-picks and leaves out major parts of the argumentation from posts he responds to is part of the joke, so you should always go back and read the whole thing. Otherwise, you'll miss out on a lot and think that he may have made an actual point.
 
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Portugal surge, KP.3

Portugal (see post 932):
This is the graph of new Covid cases and related deaths in Portugal before the Santo António* parties in Lisbon and before Rock in Rio* first weekend in Lisbon.
No one can predict what will happen next...
Pedro Lérias (X, June 17, 2024)
See graph in tweet of "COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Portugal" (notice: two y-axes!). With about 2-3 weeks delay, deaths have caught up with cases. Now also higher than the peak in Jan '24.

Portugal experiencing summerCovid KP.3*
���� https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Po...tions3=ORF3a:K67N&analysisMode=CompareEquals&
LowCovid Kano (X, June 17, 2024)
See graph in tweet of subvariants. KP.3 has eradicated the 'competition' at this point, which makes it seem like a bad idea for new vaccines "to focus on the KP.2 lineage if possible" as recommended by the FDA's vaccine advisory group only four days ago (see post 950).

*The San António parties were from June 3 to 14.
Rock in Rio appears to have been June 14 to 16. One of the venues presented Ed Sheeran. For everybody's sake, I hope it was outdoors.
 
Most of the time, however, he claims that the virus is actually good for people without making any distinctions between young and old! He claims that the infection protects them from the infection!
The 71% who are getting it again - many with much worse symptoms this time around - disagree.

The high reinfection rate proves that for many people inoculation isn't working. What's worse is that vaccinations aren't working for many people either. My brother regrets getting the latest vaccination only a few days before coming down with Covid. But even that vaccine isn't very effective against the latest variants.

If only we had all (not just New Zealand, China, and a few other countries) squashed the virus hard we might have eliminated it before it could mutate into a much more infectious form. But we didn't because 'the economy!' and 'freedom!', so now we will never be rid of it.

Stupid humans. They think their rational minds make them superior, then get owned by a dumb virus that's barely alive!
 
The 71% who are getting it again - many with much worse symptoms this time around - disagree.

What 71% are getting it again?

The numbers in the current wave are 5/8 of **** all.

The high reinfection rate proves that for many people inoculation isn't working.

Nope. It's far too early to say with any conviction what happens from here on, but the trend of lowering number of infections and seriousness point firmly towards a few years of building up immunity and we'll be reaching for the pseudoephedrine and not even wondering if it's covid.

What's worse is that vaccinations aren't working for many people either. My brother regrets getting the latest vaccination only a few days before coming down with Covid. But even that vaccine isn't very effective against the latest variants.

Still provides reasonable protection, on par with most 'flu years. I can think of at least a couple of years where 'flu vaccines completely missed.

If your brother had only had the vaccine a few days prior to infection, that's pretty obvious. It takes a couple of weeks to build up full antibodies.

If only we had all (not just New Zealand, China, and a few other countries) squashed the virus hard we might have eliminated it before it could mutate into a much more infectious form. But we didn't because 'the economy!' and 'freedom!', so now we will never be rid of it.

If wishes were pigs, bacon would be really cheap.

The idea that the virus could have been stopped is nonsense, and demonstrably so when NZ failed to keep it out. If a country with zero international access except by plane can't keep it out, the idea of the world stopping it is fantasy only.
 
It is hilarious to see when The Atheist deems something to be "abundantly clear" and when he thinks it's "far too early to say with any conviction what happens from here on."
The distinction needs no access to data and no reference to reality.
The distinction between the two things requires only one decision: Does it or doesn't it correspond to his wishful thinking?
Or as he puts it: "If wishes were pigs, bacon would be really cheap."
But in The Atheist's version health and lives are really cheap, but bacon isn't.
 
Dr. Putrino: Our immune systems are "tired"

I already dealt with this piece of disinformation (see post 968):
Infection and reinfection clearly lower the risk


But here's a bit more, in a clip from Chris Cuomo on News Nation with Dr. David Patrino:
What’s behind the post covid sickness surge? The vaccine? Immunity suppression? Long Covid? The answer is there is not one answer. It’s complicated and we have to keep the conversation going. Dr. David Putrino, Dir. of Rehabilitation Innovation of Mt Sinai Health System joins me to discuss:
Cuomo: We are more sick since the pandemic, and not just because of Covid. That's our reality. What are we gonna do about it? And we know a hundred different ways.
Workers taking sick days since the pandemic: up 42 percent.
And it's not just because they had Covid. No, no, no. I said, since then. Those who call in sick are also staying away longer. Flu cases, up 40% compared to before the pandemic. Strep throat. Respiratory illnesses. Now, let's not talk about excess mortality. We covered it here and we'll keep covering it. Young people dying more of things that don't usually kill young people.
(...)
Putrino: We know that SARS-CoV-2 is affecting the immune system. Our group along with our collaborators from Yale and Stanford University as well as other groups have published multiple times that even mild Covid infections seem to affect the way that your natural killer cells attack infections. It seems to affect the way that our T-cells attack infections and protect us from infections. So I think while the notion is that we actually need challenges for the longest time:
We have told people that, 'You know, if you get an illness and you recover, it just makes you stronger'. What we're seeing over and over again is, that's not the case with Covid. Every time you get a Covid infection, your immune system seems to suffer. It's kind of like a boxer: Every fight takes a little bit more out of them. They're not getting stronger with every fight. They are not getting stronger with every hit they take. Every single time, there's an increased chance that something bad is going to happen to the immune system. And I think that this influx of illness that we are seeing is related to that.
(...)
Putrino: The only thing that we can do to protect ourselves, our families, our immune systems long-term, is to avoid infection.
Christopher C. Cuomo (X, June 19, 2024)
The whole video is 6:27 min. long. I recommend that you watch it all.
Chris Cuomo is one of the people with Long Covid: "I'm sick every four to six weeks."

In this clip, @PutrinoLab makes it clear that it is infection with SARS-CoV-2, no matter what the severity, that is the likely main culprit explaining the surge in other infections. With this virus, getting repeatedly infected for your immune system is "like a boxer, every fight takes a bit more out of them, it is not making you stronger". 1/
Prof Brendan Crabb (X, June 19, 2024)


And this is nothing new: People less healthy than they were before the pandemic, adding further strain to hospitals (WMSN, Oct 25, 2021).
What causes this is just becoming clearer.
 
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From here, apparently:
Have you had the flu recently? Or RSV? Or just … some bug that you can’t quite shake? If so – you’re not alone. Bloomberg’s data team recently decided to investigate whether or not the perception that we’re all getting sick all the time is actually backed up by numbers. And what they found was truly surprising: in countries around the world, people are getting much sicker, much more often in the wake of the pandemic.
(...)
Influenza cases in the US have jumped about 40% in the two post-Covid flu seasons, compared with the pre-pandemic years
The Big Global Health Mystery Behind Everyone’s Post-Covid Flu (Bloomberg, June 14, 2024)


I assume they may be thinking of 2018-19, 2019-20 being the start of the pandemic. 2019-20 might actually have been even worse if it hadn't been for the very abrupt end that the pandemic restrictions put to that flu season after week 12. However, there's the possibility that early C19 cases may have been confused with flu cases in early 2020.
 
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...: France, Ireland

After Spain and Portugal, it may be heading north, in time for the Olympics in France:
People in France are being advised to self-isolate and wear masks, as an expert warns that “Covid is not gone”, and hospital cases continue to rise.
“People thought that Covid was gone, but that’s not the case,” said infectious diseases expert Dr Benjamin Davido to FranceInfo, adding that he believes that people should still self-isolate in the event that they have Covid symptoms and/or test positive.
He issued the warning ahead of two events that will see people congregate in large numbers: the legislative elections, and the Paris Olympics.
“It’s not good news to see Covid in summer,” he said, in reference to the fact that respiratory diseases usually spread in winter, when people are indoors more.
(...)
His comments come after figures from health authority Santé publique France show a 52% increase week-on-week in hospital emergency visits for Covid-related issues, and 51% more consultations with SOS Médecins (1,507 between June 3 and 10) - although numbers remain very low compared to during the pandemic.
Why Covid-19 hospital cases are rising again in France (Connexion, June 18, 2024)


And even further north:
What happened to the FLiRT wave that was going to overwhelm us?
It's still happening, still overwhelming:
Covid Ireland: Symptoms of new FLiRT variant 'like a cold on steroids' as cases skyrocket (IrishMirror, June 17, 2024)
A Dublin hospital has shut its doors to visitors amid an increase in both Covid-19 and Norovirus cases.
Tallaght University Hospital has introduced restricted visiting due to a surge in cases of the illnesses over recent days, with visiting inside and outside of the hospital restricted and security in place to stop any attempts.
Dublin hospital 'closed to visitors' amid surge in Covid-19 and Norovirus cases (IrishMirror/MSN.com, June 18, 2024)
 
Seattle

It seems to be moving north along the Pacific coast of the USA, too, but the numbers are still low:
Infection rates and emergency department visits in King County have been rising since the end of April, causing some concern among doctors and public health officials as travel season picks up and people begin gathering more frequently.
“This is the time when people should start taking precautions,” said Dr. Eric Chow, King County’s chief of communicable diseases. “I don’t know how high this [peak] is going to be, when it’s going to peak, but taking precautions now is the best way for people to be able to mitigate the complications related to COVID.”
King County’s virus-related emergency department visits hit a new low the week ending April 27, when only about 0.5% of visits involved a COVID diagnosis. As of last week, COVID patients made up about 1.5% of hospital emergency visits.
Levels are still below the county’s transmission alert threshold, which is when COVID patients reflect at least 3% of emergency department visits. When the county hits that threshold, it’s a signal that community transmission is more substantial and poses a greater risk of causing severe infection or death.
(...)
Nationally, KP.2 and KP.3 have also begun to make up a greater proportion of infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Summer COVID surge approaches in Seattle area as travel season begins (The Seattle Times, June 17, 2024)
 
From here, apparently:



I assume they may be thinking of 2018-19, 2019-20 being the start of the pandemic. 2019-20 might actually have been even worse if it hadn't been for the very abrupt end that the pandemic restrictions put to that flu season after week 12. However, there's the possibility that early C19 cases may have been confused with flu cases in early 2020.

Very probably worse. Flu rates dropped like a rock early March 2020. Much faster than other flu cycles. I recall going out to eat at our favorite place early March and there were few patrons at a time we normally see the place over half full. While no formal NPIs were in place then people's behavior had changed wince Covid-19 was covered widely. So the 2019-2020 season came in at about 25k deaths while the prior year was somewhat higher. Cuomo must have been referring to Spain. Generally putting out a number like 40% increase isn't useful without a reference to the period and place involved. Certainly wasn't happening in the US.

Just looked at the Bloomberg piece.
Holder: Influenza was up 40% in the US during the last two flu seasons compared to pre-covid levels.

Huh! Flu was down in the US.

Added: Actually, Flu was way down only in the 20-21 and 21-22 seasons. Returned to high levels comparable to 18-19 and 19-20 seasons but particularly hard on kids. That must be what they are referring to. Looks like Flu surveillance might have been higher too during C19 since Most people hospitalized were tested for both C19 and flu. Covid deaths were way higher in all 4 covid years though significantly declining.
 
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Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...: New Zealand

"The last three waves have been getting bigger - more cases - and I know we're quite complacent about this virus now, but we shouldn't be," Prof Baker told AM host Lloyd Burr.
The number people hospitalised with COVID-19 was 279 as of Sunday, Health New Zealand said.
"We're still seeing about 50 people a day admitted to hospital. People are, unfortunately, dying every day from this infection - particularly older people and those with underlying illness."
There were 4788 new COVID-19 cases reported in the week to Sunday and 34 people died, Te Whatu Ora data showed.
Of those new cases, 3021 were reinfections.
COVID-19: Michael Baker urges people to get booster jabs as New Zealand grapples with 'concerning' sixth wave (Newshub.co.nz, June 18, 2024)


The actual number of reinfections may be higher. People who had COVID-19 without getting tested wouldn't be counted now as being reinfected.
 

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