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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

Certainly not guessing. Tammes was one of the bodies recovered.


Consider this: had Tammes nd Ainsalu not gone the extra mile to get that Mayday out on their walkie talkies, clinging on for dear life at an angle of 40degrees, nobody might have realised MV Estonia was sinking at all.

Still no sources provided for that they were not on the bridge (which you claim is significant for some reason), or that they are using a handheld VHF device (which you also claim is significant).

Without any sources, your statements can be considered as guesses or assumptions.
 
This reply isn't quite apt. I don't think that Vixen has ever really asked a question about how EPIRBs work. She's just asserted that, for instance, the EPIRBs on Estonia were automatic activation. Thus, a more precise reply is "Asserted and rebutted."

Citation, please, of where it was 'rebutted'.
 
Still no sources provided for that they were not on the bridge (which you claim is significant for some reason), or that they are using a handheld VHF device (which you also claim is significant).

Without any sources, your statements can be considered as guesses or assumptions.

Henrik Sillaste, engineer, claims to have seen Ainsalu and Tammes leaving the bridge on the port side in his statement, going down to deck 7 and helping with life-saving equipment. (He himself, together with Linde and Treu and another, were aleady on a life raft in survival suits, with wallets and passports).

Some analysts suggest that Ainsalu and Tammes (where was Captain Andresson???) were actually on the bridge but near the aft door. This is supported by the fact of Shipmate Herma's voice in the background seeming to shout out coordinates. We may never know for sure.

Andres Tammes from ESTONIA told Teijo Seppelin that they had a 'blackout' which normally means that the power supply has totally failed and thus they were unable to state their position. Both GPS Satellite Navigators installed on the bridge - a "Shipmate" in the control panel and a "Magnavox" in the chartroom - were connected to the emergency generator as well as to the emergency batteries according to the Estonian members of the JAIC. Both GPS Navigators were automatically switched off when the auxiliaries stopped and switched on again after the start of the emergency generator. In order to overlap this break a battery installed in the GPS Navigator supplies power in the meantime and the set remains connected to the chain and shows the position continuously; consequently the position remains on the display, at least of the "Shipmate" GPS. Therefore, this could not have been the reason for Tammes's problem in stating their position.
Estonia Ferry Disaster Chapter 22

Tammes' body was recoverred. Ainsalu's is missing.
 
Do you believe it is immoral to bear false witness? A simple 'yes' or 'no' will suffice.

If 'yes', please produce the 'well-documented facts' you claim to have witnessed.

I wouid call what you have done in this thread and in at least one other on ISF to be "bearing false witness". And, yes, I do believe it is immoral.
 
Do you believe it is immoral to bear false witness? A simple 'yes' or 'no' will suffice.

If 'yes', please produce the 'well-documented facts' you claim to have witnessed.
Asked and answered, as those who actually contribute to this thread have often had occasion to say.

Within the immediate context of Vixen's question quoted above, this is the well-documented fact:

Because they were manual activation only.

Your running joke is extremely tedious and boring now.

People who repeatedly reject well-documented facts often regard those facts as extremely tedious and boring.


Vixen has repeatedly denied that fact and several closely related facts that are documented within the JAIC report. Yesterday morning, Here_to_learn cited and quoted a paragraph of the JAIC report that directly contradicts Vixen's denials.

As advised, the JAIC do not deal with this in their report and the documents and EPIRB's remain missing, according to YLE reporters who tried to requisition them.
Yes they do, in several places including chapter 17.2.
[quote="JAIC ch 17.2]
As noted in 8.11 the ESTONIA's emergency beacons (EPIRBs) were not switched on when put in their housings. The only reason that they were found switched off is that they were not properly activated.
[/QUOTE]


Another well-documented fact that Vixen has repeatedly denied is the unacceptably routine exemption of older vessels from new safety regulations, which allowed the Estonia to sail with EPIRBs that were not automatically activated upon contact with water. The JAIC report expressed its disapproval of such grandfathering at the end of section 15.13:

JAIC 15.13 said:
The Commission finds this attitude unacceptable in cases of incidents with serious safety implications. The Commission is of the opinion that all amendments to requirements, founded on actual risks having become known, should lead to requirements with retroactive effect, both in IMO regulations and in the rules of the classification societies. The Commission has also noted that a move in that direction has taken place since the ESTONIA accident.
 
Some analysts suggest that Ainsalu and Tammes (where was Captain Andresson???) were actually on the bridge but near the aft door. This is supported by the fact of Shipmate Herma's voice in the background seeming to shout out coordinates. We may never know for sure.

I originally asked if you guessed about some or your statements and later followup regarding if the Mayday was sent from the bridge, or if you assumed something.

I was wrong - you didn't guess or assume. What you did was to base your post on a site, without including that information. You have now provided the information, and we can all see that that source actually does not have facts, but instead specifically state that they make an assumption.


Some analysts suggest that Ainsalu and Tammes (where was Captain Andresson???) were actually on the bridge but near the aft door. This is supported by the fact of Shipmate Herma's voice in the background seeming to shout out coordinates. We may never know for sure.

Andres Tammes from ESTONIA told Teijo Seppelin that they had a 'blackout' which normally means that the power supply has totally failed and thus they were unable to state their position. Both GPS Satellite Navigators installed on the bridge - a "Shipmate" in the control panel and a "Magnavox" in the chartroom - were connected to the emergency generator as well as to the emergency batteries according to the Estonian members of the JAIC. Both GPS Navigators were automatically switched off when the auxiliaries stopped and switched on again after the start of the emergency generator. In order to overlap this break a battery installed in the GPS Navigator supplies power in the meantime and the set remains connected to the chain and shows the position continuously; consequently the position remains on the display, at least of the "Shipmate" GPS. Therefore, this could not have been the reason for Tammes's problem in stating their position.
Estonia Ferry Disaster Chapter 22.

On the site you link to:
Consequently, Andres Tammes cannot have been right in explaining his inability to provide the position with 'blackout'. Rather, it has to be assumed that he was unable to look at the GPS Navigator from the position inside the bridge where he was desperately holding fast to something at the high port side, probably near the aft door.

Actually, on that single page they make 9 assumptions.

So that nicely rounds out your claims. They were either wrong on based on assumptions.
 
What you did was to base your post on a site, without including that information. You have now provided the information, and we can all see that that source actually does not have facts, but instead specifically state that they make an assumption.

Indeed, the source in question is one we have examined already and discovered not to be unbaised. Vixen has learned to conceal such sources while still relying upon them. The authors of the report in question were hired by the shipbuilders that built MS Estonia, ostensibly to cast as much doubt as possible on the JAIC findings insofar as they suggest engineering flaws. This is a fairly standard face-saving move in the transportation engineering world in the aftermath of a major accident.
 
Vixen has repeatedly denied that fact and several closely related facts that are documented within the JAIC report.

And countless other facts, large and small. Her performance in this thread simply repeats the same lies over and over, peppered with inflammatory rhetoric. Her call to repentance for others' alleged dishonesty is only one ironic example of the latter.

Another well-documented fact that Vixen has repeatedly denied is the unacceptably routine exemption of older vessels from new safety regulations, which allowed the Estonia to sail with EPIRBs that were not automatically activated upon contact with water. The JAIC report expressed its disapproval of such grandfathering at the end of section 15.13

They are right to do so. Many regulatory bodies walk a fine line. The FAA, for example, has a dual mission to both promote and regulate air travel, but its regulatory mission is not always first for takeoff. In contrast, the IMO is focused on safety but relies upon treaties and is therefore hobbled by diplomacy. The fine line there lies between needful regulation and the sustainability of member nations. The IMO is most effective when most if not all seafaring nations are able to participate. If regulations are too onerous or fleeting, members will withdraw and the mission fails.

Grandfathering across the fine line has more diplomatic and political value than safety value. The mandate for all ships to have hydrostatically released buoys, but a selective requirement for the buoys to be immersion-activated is exactly the kind of regulatory stupidity that those of us governed by this labyrinth detest. You get the stupid situation of having manual-only buoys in automatic-release brackets.

Just because it's stupid doesn't mean it doesn't happen. This is where conspiracy theorists argue from a fantasy world in which everything makes common sense. Yes, common sense tells you that if you have float-free buoys in hydrostatically-operated brackets, they should also be immersion-activated. A couple of $1,500 EPIRBs should be a miniscule expense to someone operating a multimillion-markka ship, right? Well, no, that's not at all how owners and operators think. Instead, it's a $3,000 (two EPIRBs) expense for a half dozen ships in the fleet, so $18,000, in a budget bursting with mandatory repairs, upgrades, and improvements.

"Are we required to upgrade these devices?"
"Not yet, not if we stay with the 1974 certificate."
"The ones we have still work, right? In case of emergency, they'll still bring help?"
"Yes, they're manual-only, but they still work and the crews are trained on them."
"And we already paid $X,000 to upgrade the holders, which are now up to regulation and will still hold these models, right?"
"Yes, we're fully compliant."
"Great!"

And with that conversation, the $18,000 fleet-wide EPIRB upgrade gets stricken as part of some hypothetical need to trim, say, $250,000 out of that year's upgrade budget. At this level of decision-making, it's an exorbitant expense for what is perceived as only a marginal increase in safety that's not required, but falls under "would be good to have someday, but not today."

The CEO of a shipping line will definitely be having dinner occasionally with the country's IMO representative. And a periodic topic of conversation will be the ongoing expense for keeping up with new regulations.

"See, Miko, it seems like we just get our ships up to standard, and the next year we have to refit everything we refit last year because of new regulation changes. We borrowed $3 million last year to accomplish the refit, and now we'll have to borrow another $3 million to do next year's refit before we even have time to earn enough fares to pay off the prior loan. We need to be able to operate at a reasonable level of safety for a time, not the bleeding edge all the time."

Grandfathering is an all-too-common balance between safety and economy. And you can't just write off economy. Engineering isn't about total reliability and total safety. It's about acceptable reliability and safety for the affordable price. If it costs $10,000 per person to cross the Baltic Sea, travel simply won't happen. It happens today at an affordable price because we accept that risk.

Now on the other hand, when we write accident reports we get to be sanctimonious. The JAIC is right to call the grandfather exemption foolish, because in hindsight it was foolish. A ship sank and many people died in part because of delays in distress response, including EPIRB operation. Investigative bodies have the privilege of identifying flaws and making recommendations regardless of cost. The very fact that we're writing an accident report means the risk-cost-benefit analysis was off-kilter in a way that matters to the traveling public.

Carriers ride the fine line because we want them to—right up to the point where the ship sinks or the plane crashes or the train derails. Then we wag our fingers at them and tell them to get back across the line. It's not that carriers are evil. We just don't know where that line is at any given moment, either as carriers or as designers and builders. When an accident happens, some of us are tasked with redrawing the line using 20/20 hindsight. And yes, we get to call out such things as complacency and laxity in regulation. But we get to invoke what the law calls res ipsa loquitur—"the thing speaks for itself." The fact that a plane is now a smoking crater, or a ship is now a reef, means that something went wrong that shouldn't have, and it needs to be found and fixed. After the fact, we get to be sanctimonious. Before it, economics is still a factor.
 
It slowed because the bows fell off, the correct thing to do was slow down and turn the head from the weather.

Then the machinery space flooded stopping the engines and power was lost, that would cause the ship to broach side on to the waves. If you lose headway you are going to end up side on to the swell, you can't stop it.

Well, actually you can on a small boat, you can trail an improvised sea anchor over the bow, it will hold your head to the wind and swell if you are lucky. A ship has no chance

No, the 5 kn speed was prior to its turning to WNW - it was still travelling WSW as of that point (262°, W*). When it turned its final two nautical miles to 287° (WNW) it was travelling at 13 kn to 14 kn, according to M/V Viking Mariella and M/V Silja Europa, both of which were more or less parallel as was the usual case when then three vessels travelled to Stockholm together.

So, it started of a brisk 19kn from Tallinn, slowed to 5kn/ 6kn at Dagö bank. Why? And it sunk 2 nm later.




* West = 270°
 
Asked and answered, as those who actually contribute to this thread have often had occasion to say.

Within the immediate context of Vixen's question quoted above, this is the well-documented fact:








Vixen has repeatedly denied that fact and several closely related facts that are documented within the JAIC report. Yesterday morning, Here_to_learn cited and quoted a paragraph of the JAIC report that directly contradicts Vixen's denials.




Another well-documented fact that Vixen has repeatedly denied is the unacceptably routine exemption of older vessels from new safety regulations, which allowed the Estonia to sail with EPIRBs that were not automatically activated upon contact with water. The JAIC report expressed its disapproval of such grandfathering at the end of section 15.13:


It's commendable that you looked this up but you will note that section 15.13 refers back to the issues discussed in section 11. If you look up section 11, this is wholly to do with the bow visors and its constituent parts.

Nowhere do you cite 'documentation of the facts' that the EPIRB's were 'manually-activated-only' EPIRBS.

You also have omitted to proved the relevant documentation that supposedly 'exempts' M/V Estonia from complying with 1974 standards IMO CHAPTER III, 1988 amendment re the compulsory use of free-float automatic EPIRB's as from August 1993, latest.


In other words, I have to thank you for confirming that the claim there is 'documentation of the facts' that the M/V Estonia EPIRB's were 'manually-activated-only' was mere waffle, designed to bulldoze through blatant misinformation.
 
The irony, it burns.

Vixen, you're a liar. It's been demonstrated so many times now it's just sad.
 
I originally asked if you guessed about some or your statements and later followup regarding if the Mayday was sent from the bridge, or if you assumed something.

I was wrong - you didn't guess or assume. What you did was to base your post on a site, without including that information. You have now provided the information, and we can all see that that source actually does not have facts, but instead specifically state that they make an assumption.




On the site you link to:


Actually, on that single page they make 9 assumptions.

So that nicely rounds out your claims. They were either wrong on based on assumptions.

It 'has to be assumed' because no-one knows what happened on that bridge. There was a violent list of 40° at 01:02 after which the vessel momentarily righted itself for no more than ten minutes, yet there is no record of a mayday until 01:21:59 or so. We have a record because M/V Silja Europa started recording. It is asumed Ainsalu and Tammes were on walkie talkies because Capt. Thörnroos (sorry, not 'Thoresson) had to set his radio receiver to the maximum 1 on VHF Channel 16, and also disputes the JAIC claim that all was well with reception.

Further, the Rockwater divers found a GPS logbook, so there was GPS coordinates in the GDMSS system of M/V Estonia.


What other assumption can you make that given Tammes' shout that there was a 'blackout' and lack of any record of an earlier Mayday, the guys were having to use their walkie talkies and it was a wonder that anyone got the mayday at all?
 
Indeed, the source in question is one we have examined already and discovered not to be unbaised. Vixen has learned to conceal such sources while still relying upon them. The authors of the report in question were hired by the shipbuilders that built MS Estonia, ostensibly to cast as much doubt as possible on the JAIC findings insofar as they suggest engineering flaws. This is a fairly standard face-saving move in the transportation engineering world in the aftermath of a major accident.

I don't think it was face saving at all. A company such as Werft-Meyer are rich enough to just pay out compensation without prejudice, but it didn't. It is perfectly entitled to dispute that the bow visor design was the cause of the accident, or that they were liable for it.

It is meet and proper for experts to challenge findings if they disagree with them. That is the whole point of an investigation.


'Face saving' would have been an payout with a NDA gag.
 
And countless other facts, large and small. Her performance in this thread simply repeats the same lies over and over, peppered with inflammatory rhetoric. Her call to repentance for others' alleged dishonesty is only one ironic example of the latter.



They are right to do so. Many regulatory bodies walk a fine line. The FAA, for example, has a dual mission to both promote and regulate air travel, but its regulatory mission is not always first for takeoff. In contrast, the IMO is focused on safety but relies upon treaties and is therefore hobbled by diplomacy. The fine line there lies between needful regulation and the sustainability of member nations. The IMO is most effective when most if not all seafaring nations are able to participate. If regulations are too onerous or fleeting, members will withdraw and the mission fails.

Grandfathering across the fine line has more diplomatic and political value than safety value. The mandate for all ships to have hydrostatically released buoys, but a selective requirement for the buoys to be immersion-activated is exactly the kind of regulatory stupidity that those of us governed by this labyrinth detest. You get the stupid situation of having manual-only buoys in automatic-release brackets.

Just because it's stupid doesn't mean it doesn't happen. This is where conspiracy theorists argue from a fantasy world in which everything makes common sense. Yes, common sense tells you that if you have float-free buoys in hydrostatically-operated brackets, they should also be immersion-activated. A couple of $1,500 EPIRBs should be a miniscule expense to someone operating a multimillion-markka ship, right? Well, no, that's not at all how owners and operators think. Instead, it's a $3,000 (two EPIRBs) expense for a half dozen ships in the fleet, so $18,000, in a budget bursting with mandatory repairs, upgrades, and improvements.

"Are we required to upgrade these devices?"
"Not yet, not if we stay with the 1974 certificate."
"The ones we have still work, right? In case of emergency, they'll still bring help?"
"Yes, they're manual-only, but they still work and the crews are trained on them."
"And we already paid $X,000 to upgrade the holders, which are now up to regulation and will still hold these models, right?"
"Yes, we're fully compliant."
"Great!"

And with that conversation, the $18,000 fleet-wide EPIRB upgrade gets stricken as part of some hypothetical need to trim, say, $250,000 out of that year's upgrade budget. At this level of decision-making, it's an exorbitant expense for what is perceived as only a marginal increase in safety that's not required, but falls under "would be good to have someday, but not today."

The CEO of a shipping line will definitely be having dinner occasionally with the country's IMO representative. And a periodic topic of conversation will be the ongoing expense for keeping up with new regulations.

"See, Miko, it seems like we just get our ships up to standard, and the next year we have to refit everything we refit last year because of new regulation changes. We borrowed $3 million last year to accomplish the refit, and now we'll have to borrow another $3 million to do next year's refit before we even have time to earn enough fares to pay off the prior loan. We need to be able to operate at a reasonable level of safety for a time, not the bleeding edge all the time."

Grandfathering is an all-too-common balance between safety and economy. And you can't just write off economy. Engineering isn't about total reliability and total safety. It's about acceptable reliability and safety for the affordable price. If it costs $10,000 per person to cross the Baltic Sea, travel simply won't happen. It happens today at an affordable price because we accept that risk.

Now on the other hand, when we write accident reports we get to be sanctimonious. The JAIC is right to call the grandfather exemption foolish, because in hindsight it was foolish. A ship sank and many people died in part because of delays in distress response, including EPIRB operation. Investigative bodies have the privilege of identifying flaws and making recommendations regardless of cost. The very fact that we're writing an accident report means the risk-cost-benefit analysis was off-kilter in a way that matters to the traveling public.

Carriers ride the fine line because we want them to—right up to the point where the ship sinks or the plane crashes or the train derails. Then we wag our fingers at them and tell them to get back across the line. It's not that carriers are evil. We just don't know where that line is at any given moment, either as carriers or as designers and builders. When an accident happens, some of us are tasked with redrawing the line using 20/20 hindsight. And yes, we get to call out such things as complacency and laxity in regulation. But we get to invoke what the law calls res ipsa loquitur—"the thing speaks for itself." The fact that a plane is now a smoking crater, or a ship is now a reef, means that something went wrong that shouldn't have, and it needs to be found and fixed. After the fact, we get to be sanctimonious. Before it, economics is still a factor.

The bow visor and its constituent parts, together with heavy engineering maintenance is very different from fitting EPIRBS, which are mere accessories.

Your attempt to persuade us that the EPIRBS is a major restructure of an inherent part of the vessels structure is pure legerdemain.

You brag about being a master engineer, well, it is my turn to boast about being a 'master business strategist' (as per the blurb on the website :)) and I can tell you that the cost of putting up a couple of EPIRB brackets on a passenger ship to comply with the 1988 IMO edict is not material and if it was - say, it brought down the profit margin - then that margin would simply be passed on to the passenger in what they pay for their tickets. Given at today's cost of circa €600 per EPIRB, I can't see it would cause any great disruption at all, certainly not at the level of having to redesign an entire bow visor and recall all such vessels for refitting.
 
I don't think it was face saving at all. A company such as Werft-Meyer are rich enough to just pay out compensation without prejudice, but it didn't. It is perfectly entitled to dispute that the bow visor design was the cause of the accident, or that they were liable for it.

It is meet and proper for experts to challenge findings if they disagree with them. That is the whole point of an investigation.


'Face saving' would have been an payout with a NDA gag.

:rolleyes:
 

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