Cont: Transwomen are not women - part XI

[Paul2]

I believe at the time the post mortem was done there were no eggs in their single ovary, but there was some suggestion that they may have ovulated at some point in the past. That individual definitely had sperm, as they fathered offspring as a male.

 

[Paul2]

I dunno, take that up with someone who has claimed that these kinds of scenarios are impossible.

Lemme put it this way: do you agree that the valid objection to using anecdotes to establish some causal connection (usually phrased as "anecdotes are not data") is not a valid objection to using anecdotes to merely demonstrate that some phenomenon has happened (to a great or small extent)?

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Lemme put it this way: do you agree that the valid objection to using anecdotes to establish some causal connection (usually phrased as "anecdotes are not data") is not a valid objection to using anecdotes to merely demonstrate that some phenomenon has happened (to a great or small extent)?

Sure, anecdotes show that something is possible.

I'm not aware of anyone here making the claim that a trans person will never engage in bad behavior in a bathroom. Trans people are people, not God's perfect angels, these anecdotes are only useful in battling strawmen.

 

[Paul2]

Sure, anecdotes show that something is possible. . . .

Great, thanks for the clarity.

 

[Paul2]

Sure, anecdotes show that something is possible.

Take a look at this quote with highlighting that you added:

. . . . And you're still wrong. The focus on transwomen invading female spaces is because, as I already pointed out, male sexual predators exploit that opportunity. Female sexual predators don't. That makes a HUGE difference, and accounts for the difference in attention between these two issues. And again, you're still dancing around the issue of safety. You're pretending it doesn't exist, but it absolutely does. Plus, as already mentioned, this thread isn't about trans men.

Where you see more attention to trans-identifying females than males is the issue of childhood transition, and the spike in girls identifying as trans. But there's another thread for that already, so let's not pursue it further here.

Here's the immediate responses:

I trust you have very compelling data to show this is true. Surely it is easy to demonstrate this considering that trans inclusion has been policy/law in places for years now.

This claim - in highlight above - is not a causal claim, it's a claim that something happens, that "male sexual predators exploit this opportunity." And, yet,

You have been given many examples already. Stop playing games.

I've seen anecdotes. What that's phrase skeptics say about anecdotes again?

That is an example of criticizing anecdotes used to merely establish that something happens with a critique of anecdotes when used for showing a causal relationship.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Take a look at this quote with highlighting that you added:
Here's the immediate responses:

This claim - in highlight above - is not a causal claim, it's a claim that something happens, that "male sexual predators exploit this opportunity." And, yet,


That is an example of criticizing anecdotes used to merely establish that something happens with a critique of anecdotes when used for showing a causal relationship.

Don't be intentionally obtuse. Talking about males "exploiting opportunity" strongly implies that these policies lead to an increase in risk. I am merely asking anyone to demonstrate that, rather than imply a causal relationship and run away when directly asked about evidence of such.

Take our school bathroom example again. What does two students fighting in a bathroom prove? Cis girls scrap in the bathroom all the time, but somehow citing an example involving a trans student doing so proves... something?

 

[Ziggurat]

Don't be intentionally obtuse. Talking about males "exploiting opportunity" strongly implies that these policies lead to an increase in risk. I am merely asking anyone to demonstrate that, rather than imply a causal relationship and run away when directly asked about evidence of such.

You seem to not want to do anything about an obvious risk until after it's been statistically proven to do harm, even though the statistics are impossible to get because the people who implemented those policies don't want to know those statistics. The last thing politicians want is proof that their policies backfired.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

You seem to not want to do anything about an obvious risk until after it's been statistically proven to do harm, even though the statistics are impossible to get because the people who implemented those policies don't want to know those statistics. The last thing politicians want is proof that their policies backfired.

Ah yes, the international conspiracy to hide the truth about trans people, how could I have forgotten.

 

[Ziggurat]

Ah yes, the international conspiracy to hide the truth about trans people, how could I have forgotten.

It's not a conspiracy, it's merely perverse incentives. A failure to act doesn't require coordination, or even a deliberate plan. That's the default mode of government, BTW. Rarely do politicians insist on measuring the outcomes of their policies. And nobody is doing that now. You won't find any evidence that there's been no spike in problems as a result of these changes either, for the same reason.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

It's not a conspiracy, it's merely perverse incentives. A failure to act doesn't require coordination, or even a deliberate plan. That's the default mode of government, BTW. Rarely do politicians insist on measuring the outcomes of their policies. And nobody is doing that now. You won't find any evidence that there's been no spike in problems as a result of these changes either, for the same reason.

Gender Identity Nondiscrimination Laws in Public Accommodations: a Review of Evidence Regarding Safety and Privacy in Public Restrooms, Locker Rooms, and Changing Rooms

This study provides evidence that fears of increased safety and privacy violations as a result of nondiscrimination laws are not empirically grounded.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13178-018-0335-z

 

[Emily's Cat]

Don't be intentionally obtuse. Talking about males "exploiting opportunity" strongly implies that these policies lead to an increase in risk. I am merely asking anyone to demonstrate that, rather than imply a causal relationship and run away when directly asked about evidence of such.

Take our school bathroom example again. What does two students fighting in a bathroom prove? Cis girls scrap in the bathroom all the time, but somehow citing an example involving a trans student doing so proves... something?

Male students have not historically scrapped with female students in the female bathroom.

Everytime this comes up you end up pretending like we're not talking about sexes, we're talking about gender identities. You keep acting like transgender identified males are completely indistinguishable from females.

So any time there's an objection to MALES causing problems in female single sex spaces, you end up twisting that around and saying something like "ciswomen look at naked chicks when they're in the shower, no big deal".

Your entire approach rests on the premise that transwomen are LITERAL "women" and that there's LITERALLY no distinction between a female and a male with womany-gender-feels.

 

[TomB]

What a misrepresentive analogy that is so far off the mark and trying to push the "protect women bla bla bla.." button so much.

A more apt analogy would be (going on farm):

A farm inhabited by chicken, foxes and raccoons that had a concept of inalienable animal rights for all had a barn. For decades chicken lived in one side of the barn, foxes among them while the raccoons were kicked out to the ditch. Now and then a raccoon tried to enter the barn only to get bitten by foxes and clucked at by chicken - until one day the raccoons had enough and raised their voice:
"The barn is for all animals, winged or furry"

This statement was met with ridicule and malice:
"We need to keep the chickens safe" said the foxes in unison. "There's no space for you" said the chickens. How it will end up is still in question.. Does the farm have inalienable animal rights for all or is it just talk without substance?

The farmer who has a farm occupied by chickens, foxes, and raccoons should not be worrying about barn occupancy.

Instead, he should be recruiting some gun-owners for vermin control as Nessie describes in one of the gun-control threads here.

Neither analogy is particularly good, for differing reasons.

 

[Paul2]

Don't be intentionally obtuse. Talking about males "exploiting opportunity" strongly implies that these policies lead to an increase in risk. I am merely asking anyone to demonstrate that, rather than imply a causal relationship and run away when directly asked about evidence of such.

Take our school bathroom example again. What does two students fighting in a bathroom prove? Cis girls scrap in the bathroom all the time, but somehow citing an example involving a trans student doing so proves... something?

You're way too quick to accuse me of being obtuse. I was just wrong; I worked through the logic of the interchange incorrectly. I retract my earlier accusation.

If I had been really smart, I would have done all that on purpose merely to create a need to apologize and help calm things down, to show that anyone (everyone) can be wrong about some detail, so everyone doesn't accuse others of the worst so quickly.

 

[Elaedith]

Here is the full talk by Kathleen Stock at the Oxford Union.



This is a tweet that shows a funny extract from it when the chair was asked to explain what is meant by gender.

 

[Ziggurat]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13178-018-0335-z

I should have said no good evidence. Yeah, there's some evidence. But it's crap.

I can't access the full text through your link, but I found it here:

https://escholarship.org/content/qt4rs4n6h0/qt4rs4n6h0_noSplash_8740e92d7f24b6c89dbd4bd4d27fbbcb.pdf

Look at table 3. For localities that passed gender inclusive policies, the reported crime rate went from 0 incidents per year before implementing those policies to 0.5 incidents per year after implementing those policies. And you expect to be able to say anything of value from such small numbers? At most that sets an upper limit on the size of any effect, but only in those areas, only for incidents that would be reported to police, and only over the short time interval after policy implementation.

That data is garbage.

 

[d4m10n]

That data is garbage.

Recycled garbage.

Have a look at the municipalities with clear GIPANDOs, before and after. Did qualifying criminal incidents go up or down?

Still looking forward to an answer to this one.

 

[smartcooky]

Look at table 3. For localities that passed gender inclusive policies, the reported crime rate went from 0 incidents per year before implementing those policies to 0.5 incidents per year after implementing those policies. And you expect to be able to say anything of value from such small numbers? At most that sets an upper limit on the size of any effect, but only in those areas, only for incidents that would be reported to police, and only over the short time interval after policy implementation.

That data is garbage.

Yup. A change from 0/100,000 to 0.5/100,000 is just noise.

 

[The Atheist]

You know what would be really neat? Quoting anyone in this thread claiming that the majority of transwomen do any of those things.

I didn't at any stage suggest anyone had.

Maybe you need to re-read it.

The vast majority of men don't do any of that. So by TRA accounts, you'd think that sex segregation under any circumstances would be unjustified. Yet they aren't calling for the abolishing of all sex segregation.

I have no interest in what TRA wants, or who they even are, and your suggestion is facile to say the least.

Other mammals seem to manage fine without sex segregation, and Jonathan Swift pointed out 300 years ago the stupidity of it all.

 

[Matthew Best]

Other mammals seem to manage fine without sex segregation, and Jonathan Swift pointed out 300 years ago the stupidity of it all.

How do you quantify "managing fine" here?

 

[Matthew Best]

Here is the full talk by Kathleen Stock at the Oxford Union.

Thanks for that link. The talk is interesting and, as usual, Doctor Stock talks a lot of sense and no bigotry at all. Also, Oxford students seem a bit more intelligent than Cambridge students somehow (that debate seems to have been chopped up into segments on YouTube now so I won't link to it). Listening on a computer speaker made it quite difficult for me to understand the third questioner - no doubt it was easier in person.