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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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sackett said:
#Doubt. You say the FSB is stupid, blind, clumsy, crude? Goddammit, they're a bunch of cops! They're supposed to be like that! It makes 'em more dangerous, not less!

You don't know the first thing about running a dictatorship.
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There is more than an element of truth in that.

Running an autocracy, the capricious nature of such figures in authority (all the way up) is a feature. Just as domestic abusers have similar unpredictable triggers.

The abused population is not sure what will set them off or where the lines is. And that is intended.
 
Stout said:
Is it just me or the Russians actually getting worse at propaganda? Why on Earth would they include that statement about the son in law? It should read The Kremlin believes...

Luckily, the good commenters of Twitter have made that correction for them.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw&t=2256s (link as it's 37 minutes into the talk - in Finnish with English subtitles)

37:36 Russian Truth: The Significance of Language and Concepts, Especially for Lie and Truth
41:05 Examples of the frontiers of lie and truth in a Russian narrative
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I have linked to this 2018 lecture by a retired Finnish intelligence Colonel, but it is very relevant.

Especially about the plausibility of the lies.
 
Relevant in explaining the hows and whys of how the Russian government media lies to the outside world but not really helpful in explaining how the Russian government/media lies to their own people. All the media needed to do in this case was label Elena Belova a Ukrainian agent or spy, but maybe there's a mass belief in the power of hypnosis in Russia, like in B movies and Lenta is hoping to get some mileage out of that.

Interesting emoji use at the start of the Lenta tweet, it's almost like they don't believe their own bullsh story. Lenta has had problems with government censorship in the recent past, probably at the hands of the guy who's car got burnt so it's understandable how they'd hold their noses and write a headline like that while experiencing massive amounts of cringe.

ETA: I should change that word "headline" to "opening sentence" because I couldn't find this as a story on Lenta.ru
 
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Looks like the Russians have decided to give newest equipment to their green troops in the 3rd Army Corps.

Without proper training or discipline given the reports from Russia itself.
 
I saw that, too, but I wonder whether the new equipment for training might not just be for show/morale building, and they will end up with T-62s, etc, when they actually go into combat.
 
So... as of this morning, I suppose I have to say that the counteroffensive is on. It's hit CNN rolling, which is pretty conservative in its reporting. For example, I don't buy Twitter info until it makes it to the majors/fact checking. That said, so far, the only confirmation is from the Ukrainian point of view.
 
Jimbo07 said:
So... as of this morning, I suppose I have to say that the counteroffensive is on. It's hit CNN rolling, which is pretty conservative in its reporting. For example, I don't buy Twitter info until it makes it to the majors/fact checking. That said, so far, the only confirmation is from the Ukrainian point of view.
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I recall a month or two ago, the Zelensky Administration making claims that they'd be able to drive Russia out of Ukraine and end the war by the end of the year. Yeah, yeah, "over by Christmas", I know. But if that's been the plan they're working to, then the timing for this counteroffensive is about right. Maybe a little early, but getting it done before winter sets in has obvious appeal.

If.

And if this counteroffensive is part of that plan, that Ukraine has been working to for months, that tells us subtle things about the impotence of the Russian forces. Over the past couple months, they've been unable to change the situation enough to derail or delay those plans. They've been unable to make the necessary breakthroughs, bring in the necessary reinforcements, or otherwise redirect the flow of battle away from Ukraine's scheduled counteroffensive.

If.

Anyway, we'll see.
 
theprestige said:
And if this counteroffensive is part of that plan, that Ukraine has been working to for months, that tells us subtle things about the impotence of the Russian forces. Over the past couple months, they've been unable to change the situation enough to derail or delay those plans. They've been unable to make the necessary breakthroughs, bring in the necessary reinforcements, or otherwise redirect the flow of battle away from Ukraine's scheduled counteroffensive.
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The bolded is the part the US is citing.
 
theprestige said:
I'm not sure I follow. The US is citing Russian failure to bring in the needed reinforcements, in support of what claim?
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In support of the launch of the counteroffensive

The counteroffensive comes as Russia's war in Ukraine has passed its six-month mark, with US assessments indicating that Russia has been able to deploy fewer units to the frontlines than initially thought, according to a senior US official. - CNN rolling
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There was talk that Russia was reinforcing in the south. Also, all sides on this forum have discussed the feasibility (or lack thereof) of Puting constantly feeding more troops into the meat grinder. Apparently, they weren't so successful. We'll see, I guess.
 
SpitfireIX said:
I saw that, too, but I wonder whether the new equipment for training might not just be for show/morale building, and they will end up with T-62s, etc, when they actually go into combat.
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I wonder if the FSB is not already mobilizing Machine Gun Teams to set up behind the attacking waves of the new troops to "encourage" them.
 
Childlike Empress said:
The latest on the Dugina case (it is solved so thoroughly you couldn't even imagine if you hadn't the information related by me):

https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/der-aktuelle-stand-der-ermittlungen-zum-mord-an-darja-dugina/

Again, use a proper translation software to translate this German-language article containing a translation of what Russian TV claims is "the state of research".
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Cool. Now tell us more about the Russian war in Ukraine. How's that going for them?
 
I'm cautiously optimistic. The capture of all Russian forces on the west side of the Dnieper River would be even more humiliating than the retreat from Kiev. If Ukraine can get to the river and cut off resupply or retreat, it's just a matter of time.
 
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