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Should Ukraine give up?

Hercules56 said:
I think Ukraine could live with letting go of Crimea, Donbass, and NATO membership.
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"... and anything else Russia decides they shouldn't have at any point in the future, whenever they feel like it, for no good reason."

But what will Russia give in return? Will they commit to respect Ukraine's territory? Will they commit to never again invade?
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Why would Russia give anything or commit to the even the mere possibility that they might commit to anything if they get everything they want?
 
Jack by the hedge said:
They could even agree to neutral 3rd party inspectors regularly checking they're not Nazis.
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I think nowadays it's too easy to find "nazis" under every bed, and too hard to find truly neutral inspectors.

Inspectors: "Well there's been some improvement, but there's still a few Azovs out there. And we did see distressing signs of racist sentiment in several cities."

Putin: "Told you so. Buckle up, we're going back in."
 
Hercules56 said:
Will they commit to never again invade?
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Russia already committed not to invade Ukraine. Four or five weeks ago. You know, a week or two before they actually invaded Ukraine.

Let's just say that Russia earned itself some trust issues.

Any Russian commitments would need to be physical. Severe troop reductions with 100km of the border, inspections of military facilities to ensure compliance with that. That sort of thing.

Words mean nothing when they come from the Russian government.
 
crescent said:
Let's just say that Russia earned itself some trust issues.
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This is important to remember.

I wouldn't lend the Russian government 20 bucks right now, no matter how much they promised to pay me back next week. I certainly wouldn't trust them with the lives of the Ukrainian people after certain conditions are met.
 
crescent said:
Russia already committed not to invade Ukraine. Four or five weeks ago. You know, a week or two before they actually invaded Ukraine.

Let's just say that Russia earned itself some trust issues.

Any Russian commitments would need to be physical. Severe troop reductions with 100km of the border, inspections of military facilities to ensure compliance with that. That sort of thing.

Words mean nothing when they come from the Russian government.
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Indeed, Russia would need to commit to a military-free zone within 100 miles of the Ukraine border. That's the only way Ukraine could ever feel a bit of safety.
 
Hercules56 said:
Indeed, Russia would need to commit to a military-free zone within 100 miles of the Ukraine border. That's the only way Ukraine could ever feel a bit of safety.
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"Got it, a Russian military free zone that starts 100 miles INSIDE the Ukraine Border." - Putin.
 
Hercules56 said:
I think Ukraine could live with letting go of Crimea, Donbass, and NATO membership.

But what will Russia give in return? Will they commit to respect Ukraine's territory? Will they commit to never again invade?
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Russia commited to respect Ukraine's territory in exchange for Ukraine giving up it's soviet nuclear weapons and allowing a single russian naval base on the Crimea.

That went very well too.
 
Hercules56 said:
There are reports in the Jerusalem Post that Russia and Ukraine are negotiating a path to peace, and its a hard one.

-Ukraine will have to give up Donbass region.

-Pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO.

-Military of Ukraine must be reduced in size.


Zelensky knows that he has tons of support. Financial, sanctions and weapons. But no country will defend Ukraine. They will have to do all the fighting.

The word is if Ukraine rejects this offer, Russia will go full Bear and crush Ukraine, quick and painful.

If Zelensky says no, he will look like a massive Ukrainian patriot. But possibly a dead one or be President of a non-existent nation.

If Zelensky says yes, he may look like a coward to some, but a pragmatic realist to others. NATO will not save Ukraine, maybe its not worth losing the nation in the name of pride and honor. I dont know.


https://www.jpost.com/international...ussia+and+Ukraine?&utm_campaign=March+9,+2022
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What does 'Full Bear' consist of?

What will they do that that they aren't doing now?

Would you give up?
 
I don't much credence in the JP's report since no one else is reproting it, but the big problem is how the hell can Ukraine trust Russia not to tear up the deal and invade again, six months from now, a ls Hitler invading Czechslovakia 6 months after Munich?
 
Hercules56 said:
Indeed, Russia would need to commit to a military-free zone within 100 miles of the Ukraine border. That's the only way Ukraine could ever feel a bit of safety.
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Have any idea how fast a modern military can cover 100 Miles unoppposed?
 
carlosy said:
What kind of trouble do you actually have?

I think 99% of the trouble is on the ukrainian people. Should they fight to their pretty certain death so that you could be spared some trouble? Aren't we outsourcing the fight to the ukrainians? Let them fight russia with our weapons, so that we don't have to do it ourselves?

I know it is a loaded point of view. But, I think there is a point to it.
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We have a new Putin supporter, I see.
 
dudalb said:
Have any idea how fast a modern military can cover 100 Miles unoppposed?
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Wikipedia says the top speed of the T-90 is 37 mph, and the top speed of the T-80 is 50 mph. So I have some idea how fast the Russian military might be able to cover that distance unopposed:

Note that is all pure SWAG.

* Assume the T-72/T-90 is the predominant tank in the Russian army, and therefore the limiting factor on overall speed of the advance.

* Assume that the tanks can't actually sprint at top speed for 100 miles. Rather, they have to move in convoy, stop to refuel, conserve their treads, stay with their supporting elements, do a bit of maneuvering along the route, etc.

* SWAG it out to, the whole business would probably move at about half the top speed of the tanks, or about 18 mph.

* Preliminary conclusion: About five and a half hours.

* Corollary: Some smaller, "elite" units would likely sprint ahead, covering the last few miles quickly to launch surprise attacks on defenders who aren't expecting contact for another couple of hours yet. Then they would promptly stall out and entrench while they waited for their reinforcements and supplies to catch up.

* Corollary: If they're really ballsy, and truly unopposed, they might even infiltrate light infantry by air much earlier, reinforcing these shortly thereafter by sprinting to them with some elite units, and then the rest of the invasion force catches up sometime later.

* Final SWAG: Somewhere between 3 and 6 hours from first contact to full engagement.
 
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