The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[arthwollipot]

I suspect the oligarchs would be much more willing to put pressure on Putin to end the war if they knew the sanctions would be lifted and they could retrieve their yachts, etc. Knowing they are permanent losses gives them little incentive when it comes to ending the war.

I just watched this clip from a recent Late Show, with Russia expert and presidential adviser Fiona Hill.



One of the points she makes is that it's not the oligarchs on yachts off Monaco who keep Putin in power, it's the inner circle of powerful people who are firmly grounded in Russia and head the security services, the military, etc.

 

[JihadJane]

Well, I think the net losses to their economy and standing in the world will far outweigh any gains in Ukraine - which likely will not be pacified in the foreseeable future even if Russia should eventually occupy most of the country.

China will forgive them. Russia is pivoting towards a Eurasian alliance. China and Russia are also investing heavily in Africa. Russia can market its products elsewhere if the economically declining West doesn't want them (or is refused them...).

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I see Moldova and Georgia have applied to the EU

Both have disputed border areas under de facto Russian control. I think the process of joining the EU would at least involve some bothersome details person getting around to asking which bit exactly wants to join the EU.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Hopefully this will be a wakeup call for neoliberals who thought enriching tyrannical regimes by trading with them would result in them becoming open democracies with free press.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Hopefully this will be a wakeup call for neoliberals who thought enriching tyrannical regimes by trading with them would result in them becoming open democracies with free press.

The End Of History was 30 years ago. I think anyone who was going to wake up has done so.

 

[BillC]

Oops, RT uses the I-word, a slip-up for sure:

Russia ordered its troops into Ukraine last week, describing the invasion as aimed at “demilitarizing” and “denazifying” the government in Kiev

https://www.rt.com/russia/551194-nuclear-plant-fire-extinguished/

 

[Oystein]

By the way, what would you (and other members) think about the idea of NATO sending a military force in Western Ukraine (for example), where there are currently no Russian troops, so this could be done peacefully and legally after a request by the legal authorities of Ukraine (i.e. president Zelensky and his government) ?

Such a force might include some warplanes, some Patriot surface-to-air missile systems for protection against potential enemy planes and so on.

Do you think this could send a strong signal to Putin, and help preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine (without triggering a big war) ?

I am pessimistic about such ideas.

First of all, the course of action would not, in any way, shape or form, "preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine", and I have grave difficulties to believe that you actually mean this. Isn't it glaringly obvious that the Russians will not retreat entirely? Is it not totally obvious that this would encourage Putin to stay indefinitely? As things stand now, perhaps Putin's goal is a) regime change, b) territorial gains in and between Donbas and Crimea c) then retreat and enjoy a weak Ukraine. If NATO moves into Western Ukraine, Russia will definitely stay in all of the East, at least up to the Dnjepr.

Then I think it would be a strategical mistake to go into Ukraine. Putin made that strategical mistake, we should not mirror it.
Once we move in, we become active part of a quagmire and a humanitarian catastrophe that gets worse and worse. It would have the potential of triggering a counter-insurgency of ethnic Russians in Western Ukraine. It will seriously challenge the determination and the support of the European populations if and when war drags on. Re-taking cities like Kyiv will be as ugly as the original taking by Putin is.

NATO could perhaps justify this formally by invoking article 4 of its Charter:

(https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm)
and claim that the Baltic states (for example) are concerned.

Chapter 4 does not talk about the integrity of non-member states.
NATO countries are already consulting among themselves. You could view this as Ch.4 already invoked, or as not needed now.

 

[Oystein]

This is edging from Chamberlain into Quisling territory. Victim-blaming, abuse enablement... Maybe you should start going around to battered women's shelters, give some lectures on how to not make your husband hit you.

Nonsense.
This is tactical and/or strategic.
I am not blaming anyone. That's a strawman.

 

[Oystein]

Could you just give me the part where he lights Putin up for war crimes? I mean, he does spare a few seconds to at least that, right?

No. Why? What would that change?

 

[timhau]

I just watched this clip from a recent Late Show, with Russia expert and presidential adviser Fiona Hill.



One of the points she makes is that it's not the oligarchs on yachts off Monaco who keep Putin in power, it's the inner circle of powerful people who are firmly grounded in Russia and head the security services, the military, etc.

Given that the entire country is a thoroughly corrupt thieves' paradise for whoever is in power... How loyal are these people? What if buying them off becomes cheaper than what Putin is doing to the riches of the oligarchs?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Putin has warned those opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine "not to exacerbate the situation" by imposing more restrictions on his country.
"We have no ill intentions against our neighbours"
"I think everyone must think about how to normalise relations, co-operate normally and develop relations normally,"
All action taken by the Russian military so far has been made "exclusively in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation".

 

[Garrison]

From the BBC rolling coverage:

The UN Human Rights Council has overwhelmingly backed a resolution condemning the Russian invasion and setting up a commission to investigate alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Russia was left completely isolated, with only one other member state – Eritrea, voting against the resolution.

A commission of inquiry is the highest level of investigation the council can order – there is one for Syria, now there will be one over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The outcome of the vote - 32 in favour, 2 against, and 13 abstentions - is a humiliation for Moscow.

China, Cuba, or Venezuela can usually be relied upon to back Russia - this time they abstained.

But some states voting in favour of the resolution, which was put forward by Ukraine with the support of the UK and the US, expressed unease that its wording was one-sided.

I think the thing that is going to worry Russia there is how many of the usual suspects are reluctant to support them.

 

[Garrison]

Putin has warned those opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine "not to exacerbate the situation" by imposing more restrictions on his country.
"We have no ill intentions against our neighbours"
"I think everyone must think about how to normalise relations, co-operate normally and develop relations normally,"
All action taken by the Russian military so far has been made "exclusively in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation".

So I guess there was something shifty about that nuclear powerplant they shelled...

 

[Olmstead]

Putin has warned those opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine "not to exacerbate the situation" by imposing more restrictions on his country.
"We have no ill intentions against our neighbours"
"I think everyone must think about how to normalise relations, co-operate normally and develop relations normally,"
All action taken by the Russian military so far has been made "exclusively in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation".

Wow. He's actually almost asking for something instead of demanding it.

Russia really is going downhill fast.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Got to say, I don't know that much about Eritrea. Why are they continually supporting Moscow?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russian troops advancing on the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv have so far been stopped, a Ukrainian presidential adviser says, the local mayor said Russian troops were entering the city, which is a crucial port to the Black Sea.

 

[JihadJane]

Hopefully this will be a wakeup call for neoliberals who thought enriching tyrannical regimes by trading with them would result in the becoming open democracies with free press.

Maybe fomenting violent "revolution" and collaborating with neo-Nazis was a worse idea.

 

[Michel H]

I am pessimistic about such ideas.

First of all, the course of action would not, in any way, shape or form, "preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine", and I have grave difficulties to believe that you actually mean this. Isn't it glaringly obvious that the Russians will not retreat entirely? Is it not totally obvious that this would encourage Putin to stay indefinitely? As things stand now, perhaps Putin's goal is a) regime change, b) territorial gains in and between Donbas and Crimea c) then retreat and enjoy a weak Ukraine. If NATO moves into Western Ukraine, Russia will definitely stay in all of the East, at least up to the Dnjepr.

I said "help preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine".

I mean, if NATO protects the Western part of Ukraine, after an invitation by the legitimate authorities of this country, one may reasonably hope that Putin would no longer try to conquer the whole of Ukraine, with devastating consequences, in terms of destructions, millions of refugees and so on.

The great military power of the United States would then have a useful purpose, without firing a single shot or endangering a soldier, since there are no Russian troops where NATO would go.

This would of course have nothing to do with Putin's brutal conquest, war of agression, shelling of civilians and civilian infrastructure and so on, the Russian-speaking minority there (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#Current_usage_statistics) would have their rights maintained, they wouldn't be subject to persecution.

Without directly joining NATO (which, I think, would be too provocative with respect to the Russian president), Ukraine could sign a treaty of friendship and mutual assistance with NATO, which would imply a rapid deployment of NATO troops upon request by the Ukrainian government (in areas which are not occupied by the invader).

In the mean time, NATO could perhaps provide Ukraine with the requested warplanes (https://www.tbsnews.net/world/zelensky-tells-nato-send-us-planes-379504).

 

[jimbob]

Putin has warned those opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine "not to exacerbate the situation" by imposing more restrictions on his country.
"We have no ill intentions against our neighbours"
"I think everyone must think about how to normalise relations, co-operate normally and develop relations normally,"
All action taken by the Russian military so far has been made "exclusively in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation".

Anyone else reminded of 1066 and all That and their wave of short but justified wars?

First Zulu War - cause: The Zulus

Second Zulu War - cause: There had only been one Zulu War.

(IIRC)

 

[Jack by the hedge]

"We have no ill intentions against our neighbours"

* Except for the one who has forgotten its place and foolishly imagined it is a neighbouring independent nation, but whom we shall soon crush into remembering it's part of Russia.