The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Skeptic Ginger]

But not if they take southern Ukraine

A consolation prize to save face?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, they seem to be trying to avoid a fight. There's genuine fear of nuclear escalation, but I bet a land war wouldn't be too popular for Biden domestically, either!

The public here did like the air war on Iraq and Kuwait, especially all the videos showing precision hits.

 

[dasmiller]

Yes, they seem to be trying to avoid a fight. There's genuine fear of nuclear escalation, but I bet a land war wouldn't be too popular for Biden domestically, either!

Never get involved in a land war in Asia . . .


(Yes, I know, Ukraine is technically "eastern Europe," but so many of the classic examples of bad Asian land wars are actually in eastern Europe)

 

[Stacyhs]

Question is if the Russians there want to become part of Russia.

If they do, they can always move to Russia.

 

[dudalb]

Anybody else getting the sick feeling that the shelling of the Nuclear Power PLant was deliberate as an act of terror? Yes, I think the Puint is that crazy.
Military experts are saying shelling it makes no sense, if you want to cut off it;s power simply cut the transmissison lines.

 

[Aridas]

No matter what happens, there's a long period of "sucks" ahead for Ukraine.

Even if they managed to win right now and Russia just left, there would fairly certainly be a long period of "sucks," just not quite as bad a period.

Gibberish. Try again when you are sober.

I'd be tempted to ask who are the conspirators... but there are only inane answers to that question, so bah to that.

 

[timhau]

There has been fighting near the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant - apparently the largest nuke plant in Europe.

Now there's a fire, flames and smoke are visible.

Three words: Russian precision strikes.

 

[dudalb]

Three words: Russian precision strikes.

Good joke, but I am afraid it might have been a Russian Predision Strike.....

 

[Aridas]

Three words: Russian precision strikes.

By the sound of it, the Ukrainians are safely shutting the power plant down... which will also likely mean that a lot more Ukrainian civilians will have to endure winter temperatures directly.

I'm tempted to say that bombing nuclear power plants is a hair away from outright declaring nuclear war, either way. As dudalb pointed out, any more... strategic action involving power just requires cutting off the plant, either way.

To poke at a couple other things of tangential note...

As has been noted, RT's America branch is pretty much shutting down... but it's worth noting that its functions are supposedly not completely shutting down.

Both Reuters and The New York Times are now reporting that RT will instead be bringing its programs to Rumble, a video site favored by the American far-right, neo-Nazis, and other groups unwilling to abide by anti-racism and anti-violence-promotion rules on the other sites.

Rumble is also rumored to be the engine that will power Donald Trump's alleged new Trump-focused far-right social media site—if the site actually comes to fruition and is not the transparent financial scam many observers suspect it to be.

Elsewhere, Sean Hannity's former Fox News producer was arrested for dodging sanctions to benefit Russia.

And.... Carlson looks like he's back to trying to defend Putin. Oh no! What if Putin gets replaced with someone even worse?!? Just gotta let Putin stay in power.

 

[arthwollipot]

The fire has been contained, no radiation has leaked, all fighting in the area has stopped.

 

[EvilBiker]

Oh yeah, it's true, rubber don't like sunshine. My drag racing buddies have sheets they put over the expensive rear tires to protect them from overt UV exposure when not in use.

To add, it looks like the Russians went cheap:

Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design.

So they paid 1400 Yen for tyres worth $800 to $1900 each, depending on load rating.

The thread is interesting - random tyre expert pops in with great analysis.

 

[jimbob]

Putin can't afford to lose face here. I mean really, really can't. Not domestically, and not internationally. A man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.

Indeed it would literally be fatal to him.

He's committed. Now he might be able to try spinning it as just getting the initial stated aims of the Eastern Republics but he had most of that at the start, so those who matter would know it was a failure.

 

[dudalb]

Russians have taken the Nuclear Power Plant.
Which means they are in charge.
Given theri history with nuclear safety, that does not give one confidence.

 

[Klimax]

Oh yea, the self interest is obvious, but hey, at least it's actually motivating her. If we can strangle the finances of enough oligarchs the economy will collapse even faster. Quite honestly I'd keep crushing their economy into the ground even after they remove Putin and start asking if maybe they can have their money back now?

And repeat Versailles mistake? You need a carrot beside a stick.

The best time would have been when Russia had its own traffic jam for miles on the road into Ukraine. The whole thing could have been rendered ineffective with a few hits at the front and a few more at the back.

Had? They still have. Only it is now 64km long...

But not if they take southern Ukraine

Might be bit hard to prosecute yet another was when your supply line there is under constant attacks...

 

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by MarkCorrigan View Post
Oh yea, the self interest is obvious, but hey, at least it's actually motivating her. If we can strangle the finances of enough oligarchs the economy will collapse even faster. Quite honestly I'd keep crushing their economy into the ground even after they remove Putin and start asking if maybe they can have their money back now?

And repeat Versailles mistake? You need a carrot beside a stick.

I suspect the oligarchs would be much more willing to put pressure on Putin to end the war if they knew the sanctions would be lifted and they could retrieve their yachts, etc. Knowing they are permanent losses gives them little incentive when it comes to ending the war.

 

[Mikemcc]

BNO News says the firefighters are now working at Zaporizhzhya and the radiation levels are normal.

Any incident at Zaporizhzhya would be along the lines of Fukushima, not Chernobyl.

BBC are reporting that all but one of the reactors have been shut down by the on-site engineers and suggests that it may a method to shutdown the power supplies in Ukraine.

Laws of Armed Conflict actually forbid attacking targets like these, but Russia (and the US for that matter) haven't signed up to them.

 

[llwyd]

Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. It's unlikely that these gains will be reversed, no matter what else happens. It's always going to be at least a partial victory for Russia. A victory that positions them for more aggression in the future. Just as the separation of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea helped position Russia for this offensive.

So I'm reluctant to gloat so much about Russia "losing" the war.

Well, I think the net losses to their economy and standing in the world will far outweigh any gains in Ukraine - which likely will not be pacified in the foreseeable future even if Russia should eventually occupy most of the country.

 

[Mikemcc]

Anybody else getting the sick feeling that the shelling of the Nuclear Power PLant was deliberate as an act of terror? Yes, I think the Puint is that crazy.
Military experts are saying shelling it makes no sense, if you want to cut off it;s power simply cut the transmissison lines.

By provoking a shutdown it's relatively easy to restart afterwards (whenever that will be...), blowing the transmission lines would require a lot more work to restart.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I'm really not sure. The Oligarch's wealth was and is dependent on Putin. And Putin is a Machiavellian leader. Putin can not afford to lose this hand. He's all in. He will be looking for the cracks in his armor. He will deal brutally with dissent just as he always have.

Why has an image of Putin doing Austin Powers' Judo chops just popped into my head?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Putin can't afford to lose face here. I mean really, really can't. Not domestically, and not internationally. A man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.

He's failing spectacularly.

Never underestimate the power of loss aversion on Putin's "friends" and the Russian public.

He is just a man.