The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[dudalb]

I think the calculation is that Putin will take the major cities, then face a guerilla war that will make afhgansitan look mild in comparasion, while the systematic destruction of the Russian economy through sanctions and boycotts and embargos goes on.

 

[Jimbo07]

But he doesn't want to do that. He doesn't actually want to escalate to a direct confrontation with NATO. He doesn't actually want to put NATO's supposed fear of his nukes to the test. And since we know he doesn't want to do that, stealth strikes give him plausible deniability, too.

So this is kind of what I've been driving at, and I don't have the tools to disagree with you. Is there some sort of conventional angle, which doesn't lead to escalation?

The current line is that Putin just might, you're thinking he just might not. Everyone's trying to get into his head!

 

[dudalb]

New PUtin speech full of outrageous lies.

 

[JoeMorgue]

You have not seen how bad things are getting in Russia?

You're the one who thinks we've been going to have a civil war any day now for about 4 years now. Spare me.

 

[Jimbo07]

Does anybody really think if Putin wins in the Ukraine he is not going to go after other coutnries very quickly.
Sooner or later he will go after the Baltic States which are NATO members.

The whole point of publicly reinforcing the Eastern flank is to try to dissuade him from that miscalculation. Ukraine is yours (assuming you can take it), Latvia isn't.

 

[dudalb]

I actually considered the Baltic states a higher priority invasion target, on account of Kaliningrad Oblast is geographically discontiguous with the rest of Russia.

The Baltic States are NATO members.
Putin attacks them, WW3 starts for sure.

 

[llwyd]

I think the calculation is that Putin will take the major cities, then face a guerilla war that will make afhgansitan look mild in comparasion, while the systematic destruction of the Russian economy through sanctions and boycotts and embargos goes on.

But first there is the actual taking of the major cities, with highly unmotivated and reluctant forces many of whom really detest this attack against a fellow Slavic nation - and which most likely includes destroying these cities to rubble, so inspiring a fierce Ukranian hatred and guerilla resistance. Congratulations, mein Führer, you have struck gold!

 

[Vixen]

I am acquainted with a Russian woman who lives here in the U.S. We take a class together. She seems nice.

Last night one of our classmates asked her about the situation, how her family is doing and what they think about it. The Russian woman didn't seem to much want to talk about it (and the classmate, who also seems very nice) didn't push.

What she mentioned was that they (her relatives still in Russia) didn't seem to know much about the war, but were very conscious of the sanctions and the interest rate hike. She said they didn't really know what to do or to expect, but "they're just waiting" for something to happen. They don't know what that might be, but just expect that something will happen to move things forward.

I didn't say anything, but there are rumors that Russia will declare martial law in the next day or so. That would be a thing.

The Russians in the know are leaving the country en masse. As there are no air flights, they are having to do it by train, coach and car. There are four VR trains a day running from St Petersburg to Helsinki and they are all fully booked. Normal ticket price is €160 for Finnish/EU or Russian passport holders only. However, you can buy a ticket under the counter for €7,000. The train stops at Helsinki Vantaa airport on the way, from whence Russians are getting their connections to Germany and elsewhere.


When military law is called, no male of conscript age will be allowed to leave, is the word on the ground.

 

[blutoski]

The Baltic States are NATO members.
Putin attacks them, WW3 starts for sure.

Yes, I think the plan would be a longer game. Regime change to client state first, then withdraw from NATO.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's a poor non answer. All you did was repeat the low credibility statement that I have already made and avoided answering the question about "harm" altogether.

The Russians may well be infiltrating other media sources to spread disinformation but RT is exactly what it appears to be - a mouthpiece for the Russian government and everybody knows it. Trying to prevent people from viewing it because they might be influenced by it is nanny statism at its worst.

Everyone knows Fox News is full of falsehoods but the fans buy it hook, line and sinker. It's one of the reasons this country is so split. Or at a minimum it promotes and amplifies the divide and with it a lot of nonsensical CTs.

You seem to have missed the pro-Russian minority in the US and elsewhere that Fox News feeds.

How is RT not doing that?

 

[lobosrul5]

You're the one who thinks we've been going to have a civil war any day now for about 4 years now. Spare me.

I'm responding to the thread along the lines that the US is going to revolt and turn on Ukraine over $4 gas... yours is just the last quote.

We aren't. Mainstream dems were already pretty pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin before... with a few exceptions. The right wing-o-sphere changed their tune overnight. I think maybe some posters here really have no day to to day dealing with Trumpers and would never ever tune their TV to Fox News. I do. If anything the GOP at large has become more hawkish than the dems; the about face that right wing pundits have done on the subject is enough to cause whiplash (do I believe its genuine and the likes of Tucker have really had a change of heart? no, he saw which way prevailing opinion went). My dad... no longer supports Trump, never thought I'd see the day. Anyways, I don't believe higher gas prices are even a little bit close to enough to sway the US public much on this issue.

 

[theprestige]

Does anybody really think if Putin wins in the Ukraine he is not going to go after other coutnries very quickly.
Sooner or later he will go after the Baltic States which are NATO members.

Especially if he's convinced that NATO is terrified to actually confront him, because nukes.

 

[llwyd]

The Russians in the know are leaving the country en masse. As there are no air flights, they are having to do it by train, coach and car. There are four VR trains a day running from St Petersburg to Helsinki and they are all fully booked. Normal ticket price is €160 for Finnish/EU or Russian passport holders only. However, you can buy a ticket under the counter for €7,000. The train stops at Helsinki Vantaa airport on the way, from whence Russians are getting their connections to Germany and elsewhere.


When military law is called, no male of conscript age will be allowed to leave, is the word on the ground.

Yeah, remarkable scenes... Russia is SO winning this war.

 

[Vixen]

Estonia does have a relatively high population of ethnic russians, 25% at a quick check. Better than the 17% in the Ukraine.

Estonia has 320,000 ethnic Russians in a population of 1.3m. The vast majority live near the Russian border on the North East and East, such as Narva, Harju and Ida-Viru.

Here's some useless information for you: the Swedish word for Estonia is Estland and the Estonian name is Eesti. The Finns call it Viro, and that is because it still uses the old world for Viru, see above, before it became the larger area that we know it as today.

The red bits on the wiki map are were the Estonian ethnic Russians live. IMV, should Putin get nasty with Estonia, perhaps just let him have the red bits, to save bloodshed and get thus get rid of the Russians in one go.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Russia has announced it will stop selling rockets to the US.

In other news apparently Russia sells us rockets.

 

[theprestige]

So this is kind of what I've been driving at, and I don't have the tools to disagree with you. Is there some sort of conventional angle, which doesn't lead to escalation?

The current line is that Putin just might, you're thinking he just might not. Everyone's trying to get into his head!

Escalation is a continuum. It doesn't go straight from nothing to MAD.

I think there's still a few more turns of the screw, before it gets that far. Our reluctance to give the screw another quarter-turn or two is costing Ukrainian lives.

We're sending anti-tank weapons and other support into Ukraine, and Putin hasn't escalated. How far will he escalate if we start quietly bombing his forces in Ukraine? How far will he escalate if we close Ukrainian air space to Russian flights? How far will he escalate if we put NATO troops in Ukraine between Poland and Kiev, and dare him to try to surround the city?

He says he'll destroy the world if NATO makes a move. But NATO is already making moves, and Putin's nukes are still in their silos. So I think there's a bit of room left, to add a little more stick to the carrot.

 

[Mike!]

Russia has announced it will stop selling rockets to the US.

In other news apparently Russia sells us rockets.

Dang it! And I was just going to order one too.

 

[lobosrul5]

Russia has announced it will stop selling rockets to the US.

In other news apparently Russia sells us rockets.

A) Thank god for SpaceX so we can send astronauts to space from here again.
B) Elon's gonna profit from this big time, oh well. Better him than Putin by a country mile.

 

[Jimbo07]

Russia has announced it will stop selling rockets to the US.

In other news apparently Russia sells us rockets.

Have for a long time. Spacex makes ULA look bad.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Proxy war is proxy war. NATO and Russia in actual war with each other, that's something different.

It's more like a white Christian nation vs Russia is something different.