The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[trustbutverify]

We should also keep in mind that NATO has a lot of other effective weapons in its arsenal, that would be devastating to the Russian offensive, without having to resort to nukes.

We could be using F-35s and B-2s to quietly bomb Russian supply lines and troop formations with plausible deniability, and this invasion would be over right now.

No doubt. Without the threat of a nuclear option, this "special operation" would have been over before it ever really got started. Which is exactly why Putin has begun moving his Queen out of the back rank.

 

[blutoski]

Estonia does have a relatively high population of ethnic russians, 25% at a quick check. Better than the 17% in the Ukraine.

I actually considered the Baltic states a higher priority invasion target, on account of Kaliningrad Oblast is geographically discontiguous with the rest of Russia.

 

[Jimbo07]

We could be using F-35s and B-2s to quietly bomb Russian supply lines and troop formations with plausible deniability,

Could we? Apparently F-35s have already been flying without radar reflectors in Eastern Europe! That said, what would be the cover for stealth strikes? Wouldn't that be considered a first strike? In fact, isn't that the point?

 

[Ryokan]

In some good news (and time will tell if it's actually implemented) but Russia and the Ukraine have agreed in their talks to designate safe evacuation routes for civilians fleeing the effected areas.

Russians did the same in Syria.

Didn't work out so well for the civilians.

 

[lobosrul5]

Could we? Apparently F-35s have already been flying without radar reflectors in Eastern Europe! That said, what would be the cover for stealth strikes? Wouldn't that be considered a first strike? In fact, isn't that the point?

High altitude strike from a B-2 or F-35 with ground painted targets*. At night no one will hear or see them so if they are invisible to radar then we can claim it wasn't us and Russia has no way to prove it. Assuming they don't have some unknown capability of tracking our stealth planes, which is very unlikely IMO.

*FYI I don't mean literally painted, I mean a laser targeting system

 

[blutoski]

This is the thing, everyone is dealing with this crisis by asking "What will Putin do?" without considering that the rest of the Russian public are not clones of Putin. If the Russian economy collapses, and it will, then sooner or later the people at the bottom AND the top will want it fixed, and if the West stands firm on keeping its sanctions up they will realise that the only way to do so is to stop the war.

I remain unconvinced for two reasons.

1. misinformation/disinformation: there needs to be a critical mass of people who actually believe Putin is responsible as opposed to, "I'm so glad Putin is in command, it would be so much worse without him."

2. police state: one of the tricks Putin has been using for media is the threat of collateral damage to loved ones. This creates asymmetric leverage whereby a privileged armed elite can manage a hostile public with a 1:100 or higher ratio indefinitely.


Case study is North Korea, which I'd describe as a concentration camp with shrinking rations for the last 70 years. Mass starvation and massacres have not led to revolution. If anything, control might even be more consolidated today than a generation ago.

 

[azazal]

Could we? Apparently F-35s have already been flying without radar reflectors in Eastern Europe! That said, what would be the cover for stealth strikes? Wouldn't that be considered a first strike? In fact, isn't that the point?

Biden calls Zelensky and congratulates him on the attack Ukrainian Special Forces performed pulled off with close air helicopter and artillery support. They were able to destroy a large number of vehicles in the "40 mile convoy" After hanging up the phone, a slightly confused Zelensky is informed by his generals that the convey, and several others, are burning.

 

[theprestige]

'Nato not considering no-fly zone', says US ambassador'

Nato is not considering a no-fly zone to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine, the US ambassador to the bloc has said.

Stupid. Whether or not they're really considering it behind closed doors, the public message should absolutely be that they are considering it.

 

[llwyd]

Stupid. Whether or not they're really considering it behind closed doors, the public message should absolutely be that they are considering it.

Tbh, for Russia, saying that Nato is not considering a no-fly zone is pretty much just code for saying that they are considering it. The key element is simply mentioning it

 

[Jimbo07]

Biden calls Zelensky and congratulates him on the attack Ukrainian Special Forces performed pulled off with close air helicopter and artillery support. They were able to destroy a large number of vehicles in the "40 mile convoy" After hanging up the phone, a slightly confused Zelensky is informed by his generals that the convey, and several others, are burning.

Analysis of bomb fragments show them to be Paveway IV, or JDAM, or something. Fragments are put on TV. Now what? Known operators are... limited.

ETA: fast-moving thread

Tbh, for Russia, saying that Nato is not considering a no-fly zone is pretty much just code for saying that they are considering it. The key element is simply mentioning it

It sure does feel like a lot of people are talking about not talking about it, doesn't it?

 

[theprestige]

Could we? Apparently F-35s have already been flying without radar reflectors in Eastern Europe! That said, what would be the cover for stealth strikes? Wouldn't that be considered a first strike? In fact, isn't that the point?

The stealth. The stealth would be the cover for the strikes. Russian convoys are getting hit. Is it Ukrainan special forces? Ukrainian artillery? Ukrainian air strikes? NATO air strikes? Hard to tell. Risky to escalate to a direct confrontation with NATO over your convoys getting hit by Could Be Anythings.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say about first strikes, though. At this point it's pretty much impossible for anyone to do a first strike on Russia, since Russia has already struck first.

Unless you're talking about something like NATO getting directly involved (by bombing Russian forces) before announcing they were getting directly involved.

I hope you're not conflating conventional strikes in a limited war with nuclear first strikes in a MAD engagement. That would be silly.

 

[Arcade22]

Putin says the invasi-- I mean the special military operation is going exactly as planned and they are meeting all of their timetables.

That makes it sound even worse than if he had just admitted that their initial attacks mostly failed.

 

[dudalb]

So you're basically complaining that reality is what it is?

Dave

SO we just all surrender to Putin now.
jAppeasement: worked so well in the 1930's.

 

[dudalb]

I'm saying Americans will turn on Biden for gas over 4 dollars before Russian will turn on Putin.

You have not seen how bad things are getting in Russia?

 

[lobosrul5]

Analysis of bomb fragments show them to be Paveway IV, or JDAM, or something. Fragments are put on TV. Now what? Known operators are... limited.

Well Paveway IV is operated by... Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the RAF (Fleet Air Arm in the future).... not the USAF. So the USA could say, wasn't us... when its a US company that makes them it wouldnt be believable but whatever.

 

[Vixen]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499410431726731271



Their shares have tanked before this (unsurprisingly)

News like this gives me hope.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Don't piss your pants just because Putin puts Russia’s strategic missile forces on "special alert", just ignore it like when they send their bombers around the British isles every now and then.

Don't bother wasting money on iodine tablets either...

The first paragraph makes sense. But given Russians are sitting on the Chernobyl melted core, one might consider the iodine if it is cheap.

 

[theprestige]

Analysis of bomb fragments show them to be Paveway IV, or JDAM, or something. Fragments are put on TV. Now what? Known operators are... limited.

This takes time to arrange. Time in which supplies are destroyed, troop formations are decimated, the advance is stalled, and the Ukrainians have a chance to regroup. And then what? Putin starts throwing nukes, willy-nilly? Or does he start thinking about modified victory conditions and the PR spin to sell them at home and abroad?

And here's the thing: Putin can put alleged fragments of NATO bombs on TV any time he wants. He doesn't need to wait for NATO to actually drop bombs. He can put fragments of NLAWs or Javelins on TV and claim they're NATO bombs.

Hell, he can just claim that the flood of anti-tank and anti-air weapons into Ukraine is already an unacceptable act of war, that demands escalation and direct military conflict with NATO. He could do that right now, if he wants.

But he doesn't want to do that. He doesn't actually want to escalate to a direct confrontation with NATO. He doesn't actually want to put NATO's supposed fear of his nukes to the test. And since we know he doesn't want to do that, stealth strikes give him plausible deniability, too.

 

[Jimbo07]

Well Paveway IV is operated by... Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the RAF (Fleet Air Arm in the future).... not the USAF.

That's just it. It would have to be UK. They have F-35Bs for delivery. Similar story with American bombs.

 

[dudalb]

Does anybody really think if Putin wins in the Ukraine he is not going to go after other coutnries very quickly.
Sooner or later he will go after the Baltic States which are NATO members.