The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[trustbutverify]

Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU. If Putin invades Poland (for example) NATO WILL respond. That's the whole point. We aren't getting involved in Ukraine because we don't have any reason to do so legally. Russia invades NATO? Goodbye Russian army.

ETA: the point is not "We won't do anything because nukes!" the point is "We won't deliberately antagonise this nutcase if we don't have to because nukes".

Legally yes. But it will, in the end, come down to brinkmanship. Putin has already indicated he's willing to play that game.

 

[tyr_13]

This is the thing, everyone is dealing with this crisis by asking "What will Putin do?" without considering that the rest of the Russian public are not clones of Putin. If the Russian economy collapses, and it will, then sooner or later the people at the bottom AND the top will want it fixed, and if the West stands firm on keeping its sanctions up they will realise that the only way to do so is to stop the war.

This is also true of Russian military officers though. Leaving aside the economic situation which has far less precedent, Putin may be livid that Ukraine didn't just roll over but that doesn't mean that his military thought it was the only possible outcome.

They started in a way that showed they were trying to minimize causalities, and that includes the infrastructure of Ukraine for the previously made 'rape, loot, then burn' point. But that's not worked and the captured plans from the Russians shows their time table was taking Kyiv in something like a fortnight. This means they're not even that far behind their plans. More than this, it appears they tried to take some cities (robbed some banks and electronics stores while they were there, who wants to take two trips downtown in a week?), it didn't work, but far from being driven out they pulled out.

Then they encircled the cities. The step up in rocket and conventional artillery echos, heck is a direct copy of, old Soviet encirclement of population centers. This will escalate to more bombings if their air power holds.

The logistics might well be a true **** show, but maybe less of one than it initially seems because they are operating just beyond their normal max ranges. They've taken more airports now and their big convoy lines seem to be working as one would expect. If they switch to not operating outside their normal max, we could see the food/fuel issues seriously reduce. I hope this isn't the case and their logistics actually worsen due to the sanctions and other problems (inefficient corruption seeming being the primary factor).

Putin might be behaving irrationally but that doesn't mean the actions on the ground are irrational in the same way, if at all. Sending in poorly equipped and trained troops isn't outside the realm of rational possibly tactics, even if one can argue it isn't optimal. The Russian military just doesn't care about those casualties in the same way we would.

 

[trustbutverify]

We nuke him back. Pretty sure even if the Russian stockpile IS all operational, which it won't be, and does have adequate launch capabilities, which I doubt, Russia will lose it's capability pretty ******* quickly.

No one can win in a nuclear war, but Russia will lose worse.

I'm sure you've read about the projected outcome for life on Earth of a full nuclear exchange this massive.

 

[crescent]

Here's a new misinfo try:

Claims that the abandoned vehicles with the Russian Z or V marks are actually abandoned Ukrainian vehicles, and the Z or V marks were just put there by the Russians because they're going to use them now.

https://twitter.com/urbanhaiti/status/1499443068352843788

The video does appear to show Russian soldiers (white arm bands) with the vehicles, but it looks more like they are trying to salvage some of their own vehicles that broke down or ran out of gas. Got one hooked up to tow, another with a smoking engine.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Countries they invade, force into their new empire, and take their resources from.

Didn't work for the Germans or Italians did it?

 

[Hevneren]

What is an "RT Agoniste" and who is using superlatives such as "disastrous effect"?

That’s not a superlative. «Disastrousest» would have been one, if it were a word.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[theprestige]

Ukraine doesn't need to outlast the Russian military, it just needs to outlast the Russian economy.

Even now, though Russia's economy has legs. It could still drag this out for a very long time. Even an old bear is still a bear. I wouldn't want to hang my survival on the premise that I just need to outlast its stamina. I'd much rather outlast its sucking chest wound.

 

[crescent]

I am acquainted with a Russian woman who lives here in the U.S. We take a class together. She seems nice.

Last night one of our classmates asked her about the situation, how her family is doing and what they think about it. The Russian woman didn't seem to much want to talk about it (and the classmate, who also seems very nice) didn't push.

What she mentioned was that they (her relatives still in Russia) didn't seem to know much about the war, but were very conscious of the sanctions and the interest rate hike. She said they didn't really know what to do or to expect, but "they're just waiting" for something to happen. They don't know what that might be, but just expect that something will happen to move things forward.

I didn't say anything, but there are rumors that Russia will declare martial law in the next day or so. That would be a thing.

 

[jimbob]

Here's a new misinfo try:

Claims that the abandoned vehicles with the Russian Z or V marks are actually abandoned Ukrainian vehicles, and the Z or V marks were just put there by the Russians because they're going to use them now.

https://twitter.com/urbanhaiti/status/1499443068352843788

The video does appear to show Russian soldiers (white arm bands) with the vehicles, but it looks more like they are trying to salvage some of their own vehicles that broke down or ran out of gas. Got one hooked up to tow, another with a smoking engine.

Well, that's a nice account

 

[theprestige]

There are two alternatives: proceed on the assumption that Putin is posturing and he won't initiate a nuclear attack (in which case NATO can throw his invasion force out of Ukraine in a matter of days, if not hours) -or- threaten to preemptively fire nukes at Russia if the invasion continues, and mean it.

We should also keep in mind that NATO has a lot of other effective weapons in its arsenal, that would be devastating to the Russian offensive, without having to resort to nukes.

We could be using F-35s and B-2s to quietly bomb Russian supply lines and troop formations with plausible deniability, and this invasion would be over right now.

 

[theprestige]

Legally yes. But it will, in the end, come down to brinkmanship. Putin has already indicated he's willing to play that game.

Saying you're willing to play at brinkmanship is the most basic initial step of playing at brinkmanship.

 

[theprestige]

Here's a new misinfo try:

Claims that the abandoned vehicles with the Russian Z or V marks are actually abandoned Ukrainian vehicles, and the Z or V marks were just put there by the Russians because they're going to use them now.

https://twitter.com/urbanhaiti/status/1499443068352843788

The video does appear to show Russian soldiers (white arm bands) with the vehicles, but it looks more like they are trying to salvage some of their own vehicles that broke down or ran out of gas. Got one hooked up to tow, another with a smoking engine.

I always wondered how effective invasion markings really are, after the first few hours.

I can see in WW2 both sides appreciating the invasion stripes, since both sides had a vested interest in identifying enemy targets and avoiding friendly fire.

 

[JoeMorgue]

In some good news (and time will tell if it's actually implemented) but Russia and the Ukraine have agreed in their talks to designate safe evacuation routes for civilians fleeing the effected areas.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Here's a new misinfo try:

Claims that the abandoned vehicles with the Russian Z or V marks are actually abandoned Ukrainian vehicles, and the Z or V marks were just put there by the Russians because they're going to use them now.

https://twitter.com/urbanhaiti/status/1499443068352843788

The video does appear to show Russian soldiers (white arm bands) with the vehicles, but it looks more like they are trying to salvage some of their own vehicles that broke down or ran out of gas. Got one hooked up to tow, another with a smoking engine.

This Twitter account is keeping track of all the vehicles filmed and photographed

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

 

[Drewbot]

This may be the reason for the problems the Russians are facing.

1. Poor maintenance / no maintenance on wheeled transport/missle vehicles.
2. Inability to leave the road to go around obstacles.
3. No replacement tires

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499164245250002944.html

 

[JoeMorgue]

"War is hard when the other side wars back" - A surprisingly hard to learn lesson in military history.

 

[Andy_Ross]

All Western mercenaries who arrive in Ukraine will not have rights to the status of a prisoner of war — the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

 

[jimbob]

This Twitter account is keeping track of all the vehicles filmed and photographed

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons This is the account I think

 

[Andy_Ross]

'Nato not considering no-fly zone', says US ambassador'

Nato is not considering a no-fly zone to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine, the US ambassador to the bloc has said.

Speaking to BBC News, Julianne Smith said: "We do not believe at this point that NATO needs to be party to this conflict.

"[We are] providing a tremendous amount of both lethal assistance and humanitarian assistance."

Nato has faced calls to introduce a no-fly zone to stop Russia using its jets to support its forces on the ground, but many have raised concerns that the move would escalate the conflict.

Smith did reiterate that Nato was not willing to compromise on its policy of having an "open door" to prospective members in Europe.

"That question rests with the aspirant countries... and with the Nato allies. Russia has no veto power whatsoever over that," she said.

"We’re going to begin conversations about longer term posture changes that the alliance may need to take in the weeks and months ahead.

"Nato is doing the opposite of what Russia wants."

She also criticised Russia's decision to put its nuclear forces on high alert.

"We do not like Russia talking about any sort of escalation… as it relates to their nuclear posture," she said.

"We find this rhetoric to be extremely dangerous and it increases the risk of miscalculation. We’re interested right now in seeing Russia leave Ukraine, call for a ceasefire, and de-escalate this situation.”

 

[Andy_Ross]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons This is the account I think

Yes, I forgot to add the llink. I edited the post. thanks