The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[theprestige]

Awesome.

But we here at ISF generally don't believe in the afterlife, so there's no way to enjoy the outcome. It sounds bad.

And yet weirdly still believe that human life is sacred, and that humanity deserves to persist indefinitely because reasons. Like it's somehow morally superior to appease evil, than to die fighting against it.

Ukranians don't need a nuclear war to suffer a genocide. They're standing up and fighting anyway. We say we stand with Ukraine, but do we really? They're willing to take a bomb in the face rather than back down. We're willing to let them do it. We're willing to help them do it. But we're not willing to take the same stand and fight the same fight.

Even from the comfort of our American living rooms, we could be willing to take a bomb in the face, for Ukraine. But we're not. Where Zelensky is full of hope and defiance and courage, ultimately we're full of crap.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

The US just had a crazy guy as president for four years, who literally wanted to try nuking a hurricane to halt its invasion of the coast. Every so often there would be a news special interviewing someone in the nuke chain, and the journalist would ask, very intently, "let's say Trump orders you to nuke McDonald's because it stops serving breakfast at 11am. You wouldn't actually do it? You can refuse a crazy order, right?" and whoever was being interviewed would very carefully describe the process of following a lawful order whether or not it made sense to them at the time.

We can hope that there's a cooler head somewhere in the chain of command willing to mutiny, but the way it's set up in the US, Trump could have woken up yelling "we need to nuke the Russians" and missiles would have been flying before anyone managed to work out he just wanted his blini microwaved.

That's what they have to say in the MAD game.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

That's what they have to say in the MAD game.

Two weeks ago I'd have said "well of course Russia has to say it will invade Ukraine, that doesn't mean they'll do it." And then they did it.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Two weeks ago I'd have said "well of course Russia has to say it will invade Ukraine, that doesn't mean they'll do it." And then they did it.

Again, there's a difference between "Our leader is telling us to launch a military attack into this country to liberate it!" and "Our leader says push this button that will kill us all". The first is an easy sell, especially to a populace like Russia and even then it's still not going down well. The latter? Really?

 

[jimbob]

Kazakhstan? Azerbaijan? Uzbekistan? The Asian side of the old Soviet Union?


I have no idea if Putin/Russia has designs on those places, but I can't imagine they wouldn't.

That's the thing. A lot of Putin's clients are going to see what he's doing and how he's doing. They must be thinking about increasing their independence from him.

 

[Armitage72]

Moscow has arrested children for bringing peace signs to the Ukraine embassy.

And with that, they have lost the war. At least the moral argument. They are done.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/02/1083...VV9VgwwPWeuBx49kXcKZ3t1Y22uZcmqv8wp7J3JrxjJzo

Also elderly women. This article has some of the same text as the one you posted with some additional material added.

A 77-year-old artist and activist, Yelena Osipova, was also marched away by a group of police while she protested against the war in St Petersburg.
Video caption: "Russian pensioner 'who survived siege of Leningrad' arrested for protest against Ukraine war"

Now that I check, her arrest seems to be getting a fair amount of media attention.

 

[Mike!]

That has happened. USS Hary S. Truman is on station, flying air policing missions.

NATO Carrier groups facing Russians



That's Article 5. Ukraine? No. Lithuania? Yes. That's NATO membership.

F35s in Lithuania

Interestingly named after the only man who ever actually used atomic weapons against an enemy.

 

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499410431726731271

#BREAKING Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for halt to Ukraine war

Their shares have tanked before this (unsurprisingly)

 

[MarkCorrigan]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499410431726731271



Their shares have tanked before this (unsurprisingly)

This is the thing, everyone is dealing with this crisis by asking "What will Putin do?" without considering that the rest of the Russian public are not clones of Putin. If the Russian economy collapses, and it will, then sooner or later the people at the bottom AND the top will want it fixed, and if the West stands firm on keeping its sanctions up they will realise that the only way to do so is to stop the war.

 

[jimbob]

This is the thing, everyone is dealing with this crisis by asking "What will Putin do?" without considering that the rest of the Russian public are not clones of Putin. If the Russian economy collapses, and it will, then sooner or later the people at the bottom AND the top will want it fixed, and if the West stands firm on keeping its sanctions up they will realise that the only way to do so is to stop the war.

Yup. As I said before - one needs money to prosecute a war. In the end, one of the reasons commonly accepted for the French Revolution is the economic impact of France trying to finance multiple wars with Britain in the 18th Century, but with the French crown being liable to default on its debts, which pushed its cost of borrowing up and made it more costly.

 

[Galaxie]

Video below purported to be Russian soldiers complaining about food and being used as cannon fodder. (Scroll down for translation.)

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1499361692261756945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This rare video was filmed by a (non-captured) Russian soldier complaining about losses and harsh conditions.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Ukraine doesn't need to outlast the Russian military, it just needs to outlast the Russian economy.

 

[Jimbo07]

This is the thing, everyone is dealing with this crisis by asking "What will Putin do?" without considering that the rest of the Russian public are not clones of Putin.

No. People are considering both. What will Putin do to Ukraine, and what will Putin do to his people? Can Putin eventually gain the upper hand in Ukraine? Can he then help quiet dissent at home while things normalize? If he can thread the needle, and average Russians don't tear the regime down, then he's crazy like a fox!

If not, he's just crazy...

 

[MarkCorrigan]

The point is things won't "normalise" because the Russian economy will be wiped out. It's already circling the drain, with their finance sector on the verge of total collapse and the rouble's value cratering.

Again, my point wasn't that no one is thinking what Putin will do to his people, but that they don't seem to be asking what his people will do to him when they realise their country is bankrupt.

 

[Jimbo07]

Again, my point wasn't that no one is thinking what Putin will do to his people, but that they don't seem to be asking what his people will do to him when they realise their country is bankrupt.

I guess it depends how well he can sell the message, "It's the evil Wests's fault! See? I told you those evil Europeans hate us"

 

[Meadmaker]

He didn't expect there to be any real resistance, that's why. He went in expecting to roll over the Ukrainian military in less than a week and install a puppet government.

Unfortunately that hasn't happened. Russia is making really slow progress in the places it's making any at all, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the Russian military cannot take and hold Ukraine.

Normally this would be the point at which someone who isn't in Putin's spot would think "Oh ****, I need to stop this now so I can trade again". However Putin is not in the same position that, for example, Joe Biden or even Trump would be. Putin's entire schtick is being a Strong Man^TM. A Strong Man^TM that uses military might to get what he wants and bullies The West into letting him do what he wants. He can't back out at all because if he does he loses his entire image in one go and looks weak. It's bad enough when a leader in a Western Democracy looks weak, but for a Strong Man^TM dictator? It's suicide, possibly literally.

So now Putin can't back down or he will look weak to his people, both the average Josef on the street and the people who actually matter, the Oligarchs and the military leaders. So he keeps pushing forwards instead, and as a consequence begins to look weaker and weaker and weaker...

Putin can't go forwards or he'll end up humiliating the Russian military, but he absolutely CANNOT go backwards because he will look weak.

He's basically damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, only if he doesn't (keep going) he's even more damned.

All true. And very depressing.

The future holds empty beds, full graves, and piles of rubble. And eventually, someone will "win".

 

[jimbob]

He didn't expect there to be any real resistance, that's why. He went in expecting to roll over the Ukrainian military in less than a week and install a puppet government.

Unfortunately that hasn't happened. Russia is making really slow progress in the places it's making any at all, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the Russian military cannot take and hold Ukraine.

Normally this would be the point at which someone who isn't in Putin's spot would think "Oh ****, I need to stop this now so I can trade again". However Putin is not in the same position that, for example, Joe Biden or even Trump would be. Putin's entire schtick is being a Strong Man^TM. A Strong Man^TM that uses military might to get what he wants and bullies The West into letting him do what he wants. He can't back out at all because if he does he loses his entire image in one go and looks weak. It's bad enough when a leader in a Western Democracy looks weak, but for a Strong Man^TM dictator? It's suicide, possibly literally.
So now Putin can't back down or he will look weak to his people, both the average Josef on the street and the people who actually matter, the Oligarchs and the military leaders. So he keeps pushing forwards instead, and as a consequence begins to look weaker and weaker and weaker...

Putin can't go forwards or he'll end up humiliating the Russian military, but he absolutely CANNOT go backwards because he will look weak.

He's basically damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, only if he doesn't (keep going) he's even more damned.

The highlighted is why I think Putin has about a 75% chance of not being deposed as a result of this.

But the 25% because there are cracks starting to show. In the people who matter.

A strongman needs to show that he's master of the situation.

 

[trustbutverify]

Seriously as I'm not trying to be as much of a downer as I'm surely coming across as.

It just bugs me on a base level that we all seem to get that stripped to its most fundamental level and with all the details sanded off Putin's goal was to show the west he would do whatever he wants and nobody can stop him and the narrative everyone jumped onboard with almost immediately was.... "Putin can do whatever he wants and nobody can stop him."

There are two alternatives: proceed on the assumption that Putin is posturing and he won't initiate a nuclear attack (in which case NATO can throw his invasion force out of Ukraine in a matter of days, if not hours) -or- threaten to preemptively fire nukes at Russia if the invasion continues, and mean it.

 

[erwinl]

I guess it depends how well he can sell the message, "It's the evil Wests's fault! See? I told you those evil Europeans hate us"

I’m wondering about that.
A few day ago I saw some interviews of ordinary Russian people and while they mostly lukewarm supported this endeavour, or were indifferent to it, they also were very clear that they absolutely expected the government to honour its obligations in paying things like pensions and such.

That tells me a few things. All in all its not totally unpopular over there (while also noting that these were the only ones shown by the reporters), that it was clear by those same citizens it was Putin that had instigated the action.
And that when the financial hits makes the government unable to pay for what it has to, the mood might very well turn sour real quick.

 

[Andy_Ross]

BBC Rolling

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his "special military operation" - otherwise known as Russia's invasion of Ukraine - is "going according to plan".

His claim comes despite many analysts suggesting the invasion has not gone to plan.

In a televised speech, he accused Ukrainian forces of taking "thousands of foreign citizens hostage" and using civilians as "human shields" - he provided no evidence for these claims.

He added that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people" and said he would "destroy this 'anti-Russia' created by the West".