The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

Where, exactly, would Russian salvation come from?

Countries they invade, force into their new empire, and take their resources from.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

The only way I can see Russia not utterly collapsing after this without having to seriously back down is if the West decides to go soft to stop the people of Russia suffering. I hope they won't do that. Sure, it's horrible that an economic collapse would hurt the Russian people, most of whom don't seem to want this war and certainly didn't ask for it, but at the same time they DID vote this lunatic in. It is, at least tangentially, their fault.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Countries they invade, force into their new empire, and take their resources from.

Besides Ukraine, where would they be, exactly?

Moldova and Georgia are about the only countries that wouldn't be an attack on NATO or the EU or both and they're both pretty poor. The only reason Ukraine is worth the effort is the agriculture.

Even if they did, who exactly would buy the resources from Russia? It's no good holding on to things if no one will buy them from you.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Okay. I mean... Russia's gonna win though. We're kind of all on the same page with that aren't we?

A "Win" and "Lookit how hard we fought and didn't compromise our values" moral high ground loss are not the same thing.

The Ukraine got a few more days at best. We all know that right?

I was genuinely expecting Russia to curbstomp Ukraine. I think most people were, including Russia. Now I'm not so sure Russia can even win, at least not without shifting to a full war mobilization. They probably can drown Kyiv with conscripts eventually, but this is already the costliest conflict they've had in the last twenty years.

But here's the thing: Ukraine isn't NATO. It's not EU. Putin's invasion doesn't trigger any of the defense pacts that would otherwise justify direct involvement. As much as they might like to help more directly, no one can without pulling everyone in their pacts with them, and then that's nuclear war, yadda yadda, your future's safe with vault-tec.

Okay but even then what happens? Russia finally gives up in a week, 10 days, whatever when the economic action become too much to bear and... then what?

The fact that they illegally invaded a country and killed, no matter who numbers you believe right now, will turn out to be a lot of people get addressed... how?

"Russian finally has to stop invading Ukraine" isn't a win if the the invading they did has no downside for them.

Complain about that to the UN, which is only an international peacekeeping force when one of the major powers doesn't need to wave its dick around. Maybe they'll start a committee to investigate a strongly worded - oops, nope Russia just vetoed it already. And China. And the US.

Huh. Turns out pretty much everyone likes to keep their options open when it comes to randomly invading third-world nations.

 

[dasmiller]

Okay but even then what happens? Russia finally gives up in a week, 10 days, whatever when the economic action become too much to bear and... then what?

The fact that they illegally invaded a country and killed, no matter who numbers you believe right now, will turn out to be a lot of people get addressed... how?

"Russian finally has to stop invading Ukraine" isn't a win if the the invading they did has no downside for them.

Simply losing the invasion has huge downsides for them.* First, there's the substantial loss of men and materiel. Second, and IMO worse, there's the loss of respect. Russia won't be able to use military intimidation for a long, long time. And since that's been the source of a lot of their influence, it doesn't leave them with much.

Economically, I believe that while a lot of the sanctions would be rolled back, others wouldn't, so there will be lasting economic damage. Compounding that, there will be long-term damage to their export markets. Who's going to be keen on buying Russian military equipment after seeing how it performed in Ukraine? Sure, a lot of their problems are due to logistics, training, etc, but that still doesn't make the hardware look good. And after that OneWeb debacle, who's going to feel comfortable buying launch services from Russia? Who's going to want ANY long-term relationship with a Russian company now? No, their export market won't completely disappear, but it'll shrink quite a bit, and stay shrunk.

If this invasion simply fails, I think that future historians will point to it as a turning point for this iteration of Russia.

*ETA: I don't want to imply that I think the invasion will ultimately fail. While the war has gone much better for Ukraine than I would have expected, and I think it has become conceivable that Ukraine might even prevail, I still think the smart bet would still be on Russia to "win" the invasion. Longer term, I think it looks pretty bleak for Russia either way.

 

[JoeMorgue]

How does the NATO/EU/Similar thing get us around the "Putin has nukes and is just crazy enough to use them" brick wall where the discussion has been ending so far?

Like we too scared to look Putin in the eye to protect a country 44 million innocent people but suddenly WILL when he invades.... Luxembourg or whatever because they're in NATO?

I mean... maybe I'm not saying treaties don't mean anything but that, from my perspective, is maybe a little less to count on than other people are thinking.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Russia won't be able to use military intimidation for a long, long time. And since that's been the source of a lot of their influence, it doesn't leave them with much.

Again that hits the same "But they have nukes" problem that the current situation stops at.

 

[theprestige]

Countries they invade, force into their new empire, and take their resources from.

Like Ukraine is a pinata Putin can hit with a stick until the economic prosperity falls out?

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU. If Putin invades Poland (for example) NATO WILL respond. That's the whole point. We aren't getting involved in Ukraine because we don't have any reason to do so legally. Russia invades NATO? Goodbye Russian army.

ETA: the point is not "We won't do anything because nukes!" the point is "We won't deliberately antagonise this nutcase if we don't have to because nukes".

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Like we too scared to look Putin in the eye to protect a country 44 million innocent people but suddenly WILL when he invades.... Luxembourg or whatever because they're in NATO?

Yes. That's literally what NATO is for.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU. If Putin invades Poland (for example) NATO WILL respond. That's the whole point. We aren't getting involved in Ukraine because we don't have any reason to do so legally. Russia invades NATO? Goodbye Russian army.

And then Putin nukes us, the end.

 

[Meadmaker]

I find myself very depressed looking at the headlines.


I cheer that the Ukranian forces have held off the attackers. I admire the bravery and determination. I want them to win.
.
However, I listen to the various experts talking about supply problems and the failure of Russian troops, and low morale, and that sort of thing, and how that will lead to battlefield losses for them, and prevent them from immediately seizing their objectives.

But they all say that, in the end, Russia will prevail militarily. The Ukranian forces simply don't have the power to do more than slow them down.

Worse yet, suppose the experts are wrong. The Ukranians dig deep, and win. Now what? Ukraine has thousands of dead, certainly tens of thousands if it gets that far, and quite likely hundreds of thousands, and big piles of rubble. Congratulations. You won.

The only thing I can see that might be a bright spot, the rainbow that might appear after the hurricane, is that it is at least possible that the Russians will fail, and fail so badly that Putin is dragged out of office (and to a lamppost for all I care), and not replaced by someone as bad or worse. It could happen, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn't be putting my money down on that outcome.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

And then Putin nukes us, the end.

We nuke him back. Pretty sure even if the Russian stockpile IS all operational, which it won't be, and does have adequate launch capabilities, which I doubt, Russia will lose it's capability pretty ******* quickly.

No one can win in a nuclear war, but Russia will lose worse.

 

[Meadmaker]

Besides Ukraine, where would they be, exactly?

Moldova and Georgia are about the only countries that wouldn't be an attack on NATO or the EU or both and they're both pretty poor.

Kazakhstan? Azerbaijan? Uzbekistan? The Asian side of the old Soviet Union?


I have no idea if Putin/Russia has designs on those places, but I can't imagine they wouldn't.

 

[JoeMorgue]

And again I want to stress I'm not just trying to reflexively nay-say.

I hope I'm wrong. But this is more and more another one of those cases where we've given the irrational side all the volition and our hope for the future is them just deciding to start being rational at some arbitrary point down the road and those always make me nervous.

"Well maybe when they have nothing left to lose they'll decide then to stop making things worse" is a bad goal to shoot for.

 

[JoeMorgue]

We nuke him back. Pretty sure even if the Russian stockpile IS all operational, which it won't be, and does have adequate launch capabilities, which I doubt, Russia will lose it's capability pretty ******* quickly.

No one can win in a nuclear war, but Russia will lose worse.

That would be the "The End" part, ys.

 

[Meadmaker]

We nuke him back. Pretty sure even if the Russian stockpile IS all operational, which it won't be, and does have adequate launch capabilities, which I doubt, Russia will lose it's capability pretty ******* quickly.

No one can win in a nuclear war, but Russia will lose worse.

Awesome.

But we here at ISF generally don't believe in the afterlife, so there's no way to enjoy the outcome. It sounds bad.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Again, the experts all seem to be operating under the idea that the image of the Russian military that Russia has cultivated is actually true, or near enough so. This utter failure is showing that it isn't. The Russian military is hopelessly, woefully weak. If they can be stopped in their tracks by Ukraine then the only thing they have that is in any way scary is nukes.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

And then Putin nukes us, the end.

After four years of Trump it would almost be a relief to have a Ruski hit the button first.

Worse yet, suppose the experts are wrong. The Ukranians dig deep, and win. Now what? Ukraine has thousands of dead, certainly tens of thousands if it gets that far, and quite likely hundreds of thousands, and big piles of rubble. Congratulations. You won.

They get admitted into the EU, which helps them rebuild. Possibly with restitution from Russia in return for lifting sanctions.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Kazakhstan? Azerbaijan? Uzbekistan? The Asian side of the old Soviet Union?


I have no idea if Putin/Russia has designs on those places, but I can't imagine they wouldn't.

All dirt poor without much to shout about in terms of resources. How exactly would that prop up the Russian economy?