I don't think Putin will ever stop pumping more resources in to Ukraine. The war won't stop until he's removed from power.
I agree, but IMO there's no way for him to be removed from power. His inner and outer circle have been purged of any kind of dissent so there's no-one close enough to the levers of power to remove him from power - and that includes by assassination.
Therefore the war will continue.
They are shifting more aircraft over to Ukraine. Troops stationed in the far east are being shipped west for "exercises". Belarus has sent troops into Ukraine even as Mussolini claims he's not entering the war. Putin is just adding more and more resources into this, doubling down again and again.
I agree, and he will continue to do it until Ukraine is conquered. I admit that I was wrong, I thought he just wanted a puppet in Ukraine but it seems that only conquest will satisfy him.
I don't know what will happen, but I think this could drag on - for years. He might try to split Ukraine up into manageable sections. If he can get rid of Zelenski he might be able to get a Ukrainian government that will negotiate - but any negotiated end to the war that is anywhere close to what Putin wants would be rejected by Ukrainian citizens who would just overthrow that government and pick up where they left off. He might try to cleave off a larger hunk of Eastern Ukraine, but that leaves the rest of the country furious and allied with NATO and motivated to run an insurgency in the occupied area - so I don't think Putin will for that.
I now have little doubt that Russia will occupy Ukraine, all of it, and I fear that the collapse of Ukrainian resistance will be quick once it starts. Morale will improve for the Russian forces and as they link up and encircle the Ukrainian defenders then I fear that the end will be quick, and bloody.
Whether or not there will be an insurgency will depend on whether Ukrainians want to be subjected to reprisal attacks. I can envisage any attack on the occupying forces, or the Ukrainian puppet regime resulting in hundreds of "Nazis" being summarily executed.
Ukraine is putting up a vastly better fight that anyone expected. But I'm sadly convinced that this will get worse, much worse, before it gets better.
I agree 100%
Putin can't back out now. He can't win, but he can't stop trying. He's in this for life.
This is where I disagree. I think that Putin can achieve a military victory in Ukraine and as long as he, and/or the puppet regime he installs, are sufficiently brutal in extinguishing any opposition, the problems will remain in the hands of the puppet regime and Putin gets what he wants:
- The bits of Ukraine he wants
- A buffer state
- Water for Crimea
- Access to any and all gas and oil in Ukraine
- A huge boost to his reputation at home
ETA: At this point, I think it won't be more than a week before Syrian and Hezbollah and maybe even Hamas fighters start appearing in Ukraine. If the Russian soldiers are too culturally aligned with Ukrainians to kill Ukrainians, Putin will find others who are not so squeamish.
Could be, but they may also be quite busy at home.