Steve
Penultimate Amazing


Nearly everything that poster claims has been debunked upthread.
There are people who respond to Stephen Bustin's debunking, however, but I cannot fight fires on all fronts. I will make a new post and restrict my argument to that.
Why has the Covid death rate fallen per infection, amongst those who have been vaccinated but not others?
There are none so blind as they who will not see.I cannot see a further response from Blue Mountain or anyone else in response to my response stating that the claim that the "cluster" of 44 patients which led to the suspicion of a "novel" virus...
This is at least the seventh time Petra has posted this specific nonsense. Many have explained why Petra's allegation of "unscientific" is not only unscientific, but surpassingly witless....were tested for all known causes has no foundation but if it's there please let me know:
1. STEP ONE - SUSPICION OF A "NOVEL" VIRUS
The grounds for suspicion of a "novel" virus based on a "cluster" of 44 patients with pneumonia of "unknown origin" is unscientific.
44 patients in a highly-polluted city in the country of China which has over 2,000,000 cases of pneumonia per year doesn't make a cluster unless a specific cause can be determined. As pneumonia has many different causes and no further information is provided for why it is specified that the pneumonia is of "unknown origin", the grounds given are unscientific.
This is at least the sixth time you have asked that question after ignoring at least that many clear answers to your question. Ignoring clear answers is not consistent with your claim that you are "all ears".So how do you refute the claim that the suspicion of a "novel" various based on 44 cases of pneumonia of "unknown origin" in the highly-polluted city of Wuhan is unscientific?
I only want people to agree on a clear fact but if you can show how it isn't a clear fact, I'm all ears.
I myself have already answered your question three times:
Here is my fourth reply:The sentence I highlighted is objectively and indisputably untrue. I myself have replied to that at least twice (see quotations below), and others have replied as well. Petra doesn't like those replies, but to say no one has even replied is either (1) a lie or (2) symptomatic of losing all touch with reality.
Here is the relevant portion of my first reply to that:
Not to mention almost 400 million subsequent cases and more than 5 million deaths.
Here is the relevant portion of my second reply:
Here's what I did say when you asked that same question earlier:
Not to mention almost 400 million subsequent cases and more than 5 million deaths.
If you had paid attention and responded honestly, I would not have had to repeat that.
I didn't think it was necessary to point out that "the association between pneumonia and the novel virus" has never been lost.
Petra is still asking the same thing while claiming no one has even replied to it. Here, therefore, is my third reply:
Not to mention almost 400 million subsequent cases and more than 5 million deaths.
If you had paid attention and responded honestly, I would not have had to repeat that.
I didn't think it was necessary to point out that "the association between pneumonia and the novel virus" has never been lost.
I note also that Petra's obviously false claim that no one has replied to Petra's statement reflects poorly on Petra's credibility.
Not to mention almost 400 million subsequent cases and more than 5 million deaths.
If you had paid attention and responded honestly, I would not have had to repeat that.
I didn't think it was necessary to point out that "the association between pneumonia and the novel virus" has never been lost.
I note also that Petra's obviously false claim that no one has replied to Petra's statement reflects poorly on Petra's credibility.
In particular, Petra is lying when Petra claims to be open-minded, "all ears", even as Petra pretends no one has answered Petra's question.
There are none so blind as they who will not see.
This is at least the seventh time Petra has posted this specific nonsense. Many have explained why Petra's allegation of "unscientific" is not only unscientific, but surpassingly witless.
As shown in the spoiler, I myself have responded to this specific nonsense four times.
Here is my fifth response:
Not to mention almost 400 million subsequent cases and more than 5 million deaths.
If you had paid attention and responded honestly, I would not have had to repeat that.
I didn't think it was necessary to point out that "the association between pneumonia and the novel virus" has never been lost.
I note also that Petra's obviously false claim that no one has replied to Petra's statement reflects poorly on Petra's credibility.
In particular, Petra is lying when Petra claims to be open-minded, "all ears", even as Petra pretends no one has answered Petra's question.
Petra now says Petra "cannot see" responses. Like the village idiot who began to cry "dragon!" after villagers learned to ignore his cries of "wolf!", Petra has modified her unscientific challenge by adding still more nonsense in bold. That bolded addition is naught but distraction from her fundamental problem: Petra "cannot see" relevant responses because Petra does not want to see relevant responses.
Perhaps if you have trouble fighting fires on all fronts you should start only one at a time.
You're so right and that's why I shall doggedly from now on stick to my step-by-step approach starting with the unscientificness of the suspicion of a "novel" virus.
If the forum membership ever gets around to discussing trolls and troll-like behaviour, I'd include a criterium that posting content from and links to known pseudo-science, quackery, and conspiracy theory sites in support of one's position—after being given a warning by a mod—be an actionable offense. In my opinion, such posters aren't here to learn; they're here to clutter up the discussion and spam their misguided foolishness.
Nearly everything that poster claims has been debunked upthread.
Suspicion often proves to be unfounded. The initial suspicion of a novel virus was an example of what scientifically literate people refer to as a conjecture or tentative hypothesis, something to be investigated further. Such suspicions/conjectures/hypotheses often turn out to be wrong. This particular suspicion/conjecture/hypothesis turned out to be correct, as is evident from the millions of subsequent deaths (not just cases) you dismiss as irrelevant, along with mountains of other evidence you dismiss because you prefer to believe crackpot conspiracy theories.All I'm asking is for a refutation of the claim that the grounds given for suspicion of a "novel" virus are unscientific. Millions of subsequent cases has zero to do with the suspicion arrived at initially. Why, initially, before anything else happened would there be a suspicion of a "novel" virus based on 44 cases of pneumonia? Why are these 44 cases being called a "cluster" of "unknown origin" with no further information about those cases when pneumonia is a very common illness in China, especially in a highly-polluted city such as Wuhan.
People who are genuinely interested to learn about the early days of this pandemic and how the causative virus came to be identified might want to read the rest of that paper. (ETA: Although the paper's author is associated with an Australian university, it looks to me as though the author might not be a native speaker of English, which might explain some of the prose I have quoted.)Zaheer Allam said:[size=+1]Day 29—December 29, 2019[/size]
As hospitals continued to receive more patients with unknown “pneumonia-like symptoms,” fear of the outbreak is already spreading, especially among the social media (WeChat) use within China, more so Wuhan (Secon, 2020). Li et al. (2020) explained that during the period beginning December 1, 2019, the recurrence of the words “SARS” and “shortness of breath” in the social media started to increase, and by December 29, it had peaked. Meanwhile, in the hospitals, doctors were observed to concede that there might be a new virus of unknown etymology in Wuhan, presenting symptoms of acute respiratory syndrome. The reporting is affirmed by availability of the first four cases officially confirmed. All the four cases were linked to the Huanan (Southern China) Seafood Wholesale Market, which has been highly linked to have been the source of the virus. While only four cases had been pointed, by this date, Bryner (2020) reports that already, over 180 people in Wuhan had been infected, but since doctors had not earmarked them as suspected cases noting that there were no suspicion of this “unknown” disease. The 180 cases were only identified after doctors cross-verified records. The suspicion after reporting the four cases was that they were not suffering from SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which was still in surveillance since it broke in 2003. With the possibility of an unknown outbreak, at this time, the concern was to establish the transmissibility, severity, and other issues that may be related to this new virus (Adhikari et al., 2020).
[size=+1]Day 31—December 31, 2019[/size]
The situation unfolded rapidly on this day. First, the Chinese officially reported to the WHO of the possibility of a new virus with symptoms of pneumonia, but of unknown etymology. The information to WHO officials based in China was that this disease had been detected in Wuhan, from the Hubei Province. By the time of this reporting, the ECDC supported that Wuhan Municipal Health Commission was already handling 27 pneumonia cases with 7 of those in critical conditions (ECDC, 2020b). While reporting, the officials did not have the information about how the disease was transmitted, and in some sources (WHO, 2020e), they have ruled out human-to-human infection. While that is the case, all patients with the said symptoms who had been received so far in hospitals in Wuhan were placed under quarantine, as work to establish and identify the type of the virus and its origin began (Safi, 2020).
What's unscientific here is that sentence of yours. In that sentence, you are (once again) saying you have made up your mind and, in your mind, all that remains is to get the rest of the world to agree with your foregone conclusion. That's pretty much the opposite of allowing actual evidence to guide you to a conclusion.I'm taking a step-by-step approach as the next thing done I think is also unscientific but I want to get agreement - or at least tacit agreement - that the suspicion of a "novel" virus presented to us is unscientific.
Your worthless opinion is noted, as is the unscientific nature of your attitude toward evidence.You have not debunked my claim.
In other words, all we've got to look forward to is you posting that WHO link over and over and over and over and over and over and over again, all the while insisting that no-one has responded to it, and showing yourself to be unwilling or unable to process new information, so that you can keep doggedly insisting on this one thing you thought of a year ago and won't ever let go of.
Oh goody. So glad you're here, Petra.![]()
Suspicion often proves to be unfounded. The initial suspicion of a novel virus was an example of what scientifically literate people refer to as a conjecture or tentative hypothesis, something to be investigated further. Such suspicions/conjectures/hypotheses often turn out to be wrong. This particular suspicion/conjecture/hypothesis turned out to be correct, as is evident from the millions of subsequent deaths (not just cases) you dismiss as irrelevant, along with mountains of other evidence you dismiss because you prefer to believe crackpot conspiracy theories.
As for why those 44 cases of pneumonia raised suspicion, here are a couple of paragraphs excerpted from a scholarly history of the pandemic's early days:
Day 29—December 29, 2019
As hospitals continued to receive more patients with unknown “pneumonia-like symptoms,” fear of the outbreak is already spreading, especially among the social media (WeChat) use within China, more so Wuhan (Secon, 2020). Li et al. (2020) explained that during the period beginning December 1, 2019, the recurrence of the words “SARS” and “shortness of breath” in the social media started to increase, and by December 29, it had peaked. Meanwhile, in the hospitals, doctors were observed to concede that there might be a new virus of unknown etymology in Wuhan, presenting symptoms of acute respiratory syndrome. The reporting is affirmed by availability of the first four cases officially confirmed. All the four cases were linked to the Huanan (Southern China) Seafood Wholesale Market, which has been highly linked to have been the source of the virus. While only four cases had been pointed, by this date, Bryner (2020) reports that already, over 180 people in Wuhan had been infected, but since doctors had not earmarked them as suspected cases noting that there were no suspicion of this “unknown” disease. The 180 cases were only identified after doctors cross-verified records. The suspicion after reporting the four cases was that they were not suffering from SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which was still in surveillance since it broke in 2003. With the possibility of an unknown outbreak, at this time, the concern was to establish the transmissibility, severity, and other issues that may be related to this new virus (Adhikari et al., 2020).
Day 31—December 31, 2019
The situation unfolded rapidly on this day. First, the Chinese officially reported to the WHO of the possibility of a new virus with symptoms of pneumonia, but of unknown etymology. The information to WHO officials based in China was that this disease had been detected in Wuhan, from the Hubei Province. By the time of this reporting, the ECDC supported that Wuhan Municipal Health Commission was already handling 27 pneumonia cases with 7 of those in critical conditions (ECDC, 2020b). While reporting, the officials did not have the information about how the disease was transmitted, and in some sources (WHO, 2020e), they have ruled out human-to-human infection. While that is the case, all patients with the said symptoms who had been received so far in hospitals in Wuhan were placed under quarantine, as work to establish and identify the type of the virus and its origin began (Safi, 2020).