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Pandemic Panic Must Stop

Had to move a ton of posts for various rule 11, rule 12 and rule 0 breaches. I’ll go through the moved posts later on to determine if any suspensions are required. Going forward stop the personalised bickering, if you can’t post without breaching your Membership Agreement don’t post.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat
 
When one person claims the efficacy has dropped from, say, 90% to 80% in six months, and the next person claims that person is "wrong" because "reasons", and says its 88% to 69% in five months, the probability is that they are both wrong, or they could be both right, or even that the comparison is meaningless in any specific way. Why is this?

Its because a set of numbers like vaccine efficacy being reduced from X% to Y% in N months does not apply universally everywhere. Its really important to understand that the vaccine, the virus itself as it mutates, and the environment in which the infections are taking place are all variables in a very complex calculation, the results of which impact on the R0 of the disease, for that environment. It is pretty much meaningless to compare studies done by different people, using different subjects, and different vaccines in different environments.

The environment in which the transmissions is taking place is a very, very important part of the equation. In an environment of lockdown, there are less opportunities for the virus to spread, so there will be less infections and therefore less breakthrough cases, and the vaccine will appear to be more effective. Conversely, environments where you have a more mobile population with closer social contact among individuals will have higher transmission rates, therefore higher chances of breakthrough cases, and therefore the vaccination will look less effective.

Also, the transmissibility of the disease is influenced by the environment. In New Zealand the Delta variant is running at an R0 of about 1 (meaning one person infects one other) because we are in full lockdown and are managing to flatten the curve. In Sydney, the R0 is about 1.3, but in the UK and the US, they are running at about 3 to 4, and in other countries that are not running lockdowns at all it is as high as 6 to 7. Environment is key in getting on top of the situation.

Finally, the really, really important thing keep in mind is that the efficacy in prevention against infection might be reducing over time, but the protection against becoming seriously ill does not appear to be. There is as yet no evidence that when vaccinated people get breakthrough infections, they become more seriously ill the longer they have been vaccinated.

Sources.

https://www.timeout.com/sydney/news...to-follow-in-australias-delta-outbreak-081821

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/delta-vaccines-faqs.php

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466347/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahro...ng-against-the-delta-variant/?sh=2b24dfa71a6f
 
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The Atheist said:
Many words to cover up for the fact that you were proven wrong yet again. Vaccine efficacy is waning fast, and that's acknowledged by everyone with at least half a clue. And I didn't say PW was wrong because "reasons" I showed he was wrong because science exists. Here's some more.

Israel https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html

Back in July Pfizer announced a need for boosters due to waning efficacy.

CDC prior to the Zoe report.

Like I said, it's not even new news. I'm amused by you trying to defend it, though.

Important and irrelevant, given nobody mentioned it. Nice try at further deflection of being wrong. Well played.
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Is the lack of lasting vaccine protection why everyone is supposedly panicking? :confused:

I'm not sure how this fits with the OP.

I will say though that I'm fine with a short acting vaccine because it gets us further down the road toward a longer lasting immunity be it from breakthrough cases or better vaccines. And we shouldn't worry just yet that these vaccines won't last longer given more than a few of our vaccines like tetanus for example, need a 3 dose primer (4 or 5 if you start vaccinating people as infants) for it to then last 10 years.

Just like masks and social distancing got us through the pandemic without overwhelming hospitals and funeral homes (or it was supposed to had people cooperated), a vaccine that wears off quickly will get us further down the road.

A short acting or inadequate acting vaccine is not causing panic as far as I can see. If anything it is causing too many people to just say **** it and ignore anything that might prevent COVID.
 
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You don't seem to understand. Just because it is called "panic buying" in the press when the shelves are empty, it must mean that people are running screaming and flailing hysterically to the shop and back. By the same logic as sweetmeats must be meats, or sweetbread must be bread ;)

I mean the patio heater shortage last November got called "panic buying" by enough idiot journalists, even thought it was just some perfectly calm and planned purchases by people who wanted to meet their friends at home if they can't meet at the pub, given 1. the lockdown, and 2. the weather was chilling, because the Gulf Stream was just starting to seize up. Or just to sit in the garden themselves, if they're not going anywhere. Nobody was running around screaming and pulling their hair. Nobody was stocking 50 patio heaters for the inevitable breakdown of human civilization. Just some social people sat and thought calmly about what they can do given the new circumstances, and reached the "so let's sit in the garden near a patio heater then" conclusion. Just too many had that same idea at the same time, and the supply side of the equation didn't expect it.
 
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HansMustermann said:
You don't seem to understand. Just because it is called "panic buying" in the press when the shelves are empty, it must mean that people are running screaming and flailing hysterically to the shop and back. By the same logic as sweetmeats must be meats, or sweetbread must be bread ;)

I mean the patio heater shortage last November got called "panic buying" by enough idiot journalists, even thought it was just some perfectly calm and planned purchases by people who wanted to meet their friends at home if they can't meet at the pub, given 1. the lockdown, and 2. the weather was chilling, because the Gulf Stream was just starting to seize up. Or just to sit in the garden themselves, if they're not going anywhere. Nobody was running around screaming and pulling their hair. Nobody was stocking 50 patio heaters for the inevitable breakdown of human civilization. Just some social people sat and thought calmly about what they can do given the new circumstances, and reached the "so let's sit in the garden near a patio heater then" conclusion. Just too many had that same idea at the same time, and the supply side of the equation didn't expect it.
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Reminds me of how most of the famous toilet paper "panic buying" and "hoarding" in the U.S. in 2020 turned out to be people buying more toilet paper that was packaged and distributed for home use, because they were using more of it, because they were spending more time at home. At the same time, toilet paper packaged and distributed for commercial use (e.g. in businesses, schools, and restaurants) was piling up in warehouses.
 
Well, some did start buying extra when the shortages did hit. (Which didn't help alleviate the shortages.) But yeah, it was "panic" at the shortages (and even then imagine me doing some conspicuous Dr Evil style air quotes around "panic"), rather than at Corona itself. A shortage which in turn, as you say, was caused more by a failure in the distribution chain to adapt in time.
 
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Myriad said:
Reminds me of how most of the famous toilet paper "panic buying" and "hoarding" in the U.S. in 2020 turned out to be people buying more toilet paper that was packaged and distributed for home use, because they were using more of it, because they were spending more time at home. At the same time, toilet paper packaged and distributed for commercial use (e.g. in businesses, schools, and restaurants) was piling up in warehouses.
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:dl:

So some people assumed that the shortages were due to "panic" buying!

Well, as the saying goes, "Assumption is the mother of all ****-ups!"
.
.
.
 
smartcooky said:
I can't speak to the Covid situation, but I can tell you what many of them will do

"Panic" by boarding up the windows and doors of their homes.

"Panic" by leaving town and heading to somewhere safer where the storm won't hit or will be less severe.

"Panic" by making sure they have plenty of fuel for their generators, and that all their devices are fully charged.

"Panic" by making sure their storm cellars are well stocked (most people will have "pre-emptively panicked" by having their storm cellars fully stocked all the time).

Of course, to most people, these are just normal, commonsense precautions in preparation for a time of danger, but for some, this is part of their "panic list" .;)
.
.
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And Ida is worse then predicted. It's lsow moving and is already shocking the experts by how long the 130 MPH plus winds are lasting. And massive amounts of rainfall. Some flooding in New Orleans from the sheer amount of rain falling.
Better to "Panic " a little and take precuations rather then be complacent.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Is the lack of lasting vaccine protection why everyone is supposedly panicking? :confused:

I'm not sure how this fits with the OP.

I will say though that I'm fine with a short acting vaccine because it gets us further down the road toward a longer lasting immunity be it from breakthrough cases or better vaccines. And we shouldn't worry just yet that these vaccines won't last longer given more than a few of our vaccines like tetanus for example, need a 3 dose primer (4 or 5 if you start vaccinating people as infants) for it to then last 10 years.

Just like masks and social distancing got us through the pandemic without overwhelming hospitals and funeral homes (or it was supposed to had people cooperated), a vaccine that wears off quickly will get us further down the road.

A short acting or inadequate acting vaccine is not causing panic as far as I can see. If anything it is causing too many people to just say **** it and ignore anything that might prevent COVID.
Click to expand...

Also, we may have to take into consideration, the curve of this diminishing efficacy...

curve-shapes.jpg


...is it going to be;

(A) Linear decay, diminishing to zero at a predictable point in the near future?
(B) Geometric or exponential decay with decreasing form, staying relatively high and then quickly falling off quickly to zero?
(C) Geometric or exponential decay to 0, falling quickly and slowly tailing off to zero?
(D) Geometric or exponential decay to n, falling quickly and slowly tailing off to some unknown non-zero level?

The problem is, we don't yet have enough information (not enough points on the curve in terms of efficacy %, and not enough time has expired) to determine anything for certain with regards to long term efficacy - just because it has fallen off from X% to Y% over period T does not tell us anything about what might happen long term.

Additionally, as I posted earlier, even the fact that efficacy in protection against becoming infected might be fading, there is as yet no evidence that vaccine protection against becoming seriously ill is fading. When vaccinated people get breakthrough infections, there does not appear to be any evidence that they become more seriously ill the greater the amount of time has passed since they became fully vaccinated.

ETA:
There is another thing to consider as well. Vaccine efficacy is influenced by level of exposure, i.e. the amount of virus the subject has been exposed to. Put a non-infected vaccinated subject in a small room with 20 others, only one of which is infected and contagious, the chances of the vaccine failing to protect the subject is much lower that if you put the subject in the same room in which all 20 are infected and contagious, i.e. the higher level of exposure the subject is exposed to, the lower the efficacy of the vaccinated subject's protection. This is why flattening the curve and getting vaccinated are so important. Doing so lowers everyone's potential level of exposure.
 
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HansMustermann said:
Well, some did start buying extra when the shortages did hit. ....
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I did. Mind you this was at the beginning when we had no idea what to expect.

I stocked up on TP because a friend in another forum described her experience living in Hong Kong and that was on the advice list. I bought some canned food but I should have had it anyway in the earthquake stockpile.

When they said there might be drug shortages because the ingredient supply chain might be disrupted, I bought my two most important meds that there were no subs for. I can do that because I order pharmaceuticals for my business.

I also bought N95 masks that I later traded for some expired N95 masks and gave the new ones to the local hospital. I bought syringes which are for this year's flu vaccinations because there was a concern those might be in short supply. And I got a case of hand sanitizer, again because I use it in my job.

I think that was it as far as stockpiling went.
 
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I didn't stock up on anything. TP was usually low in the store, but there was always enough. Sometimes stores ran out of original flavor ramen. I don't know, I must have got lucky and I just couldn't be bothered to panic
 
Jim_MDP said:
I don't know man... have you seen those right wingers at rallies? The anti-mask/vaxers at school board meetings?
Damn... a lot of those folk have lost it. [emoji3525]
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Given this definition of panic that was posted elsewhere in the thread:

a sudden overwhelming fear, with or without cause, that produces hysterical or irrational behavior, and that often spreads quickly through a group of persons or animals.

I think you have hit the proverbial nail on its head.
 
Jim_MDP said:
I don't know man... have you seen those right wingers at rallies? The anti-mask/vaxers at school board meetings?
Damn... a lot of those folk have lost it. [emoji3525]
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What is the image you are tryng to display. It keeps coming up as a broken image link in every one of your posts
 
smartcooky said:
What is the image you are tryng to display. It keeps coming up as a broken image link in every one of your posts
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What?
I'm not linking/embedding any image (haven't used my gallery in months in fact).
I'll fix it if you can help me see what "it" is.
Thanks


Edit... do you mean the frowny emoji at the end? It may be a TapaCrap set that isn't playing well with others. Just a guess.
 
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Jim_MDP said:
What?
I'm not linking/embedding any image (haven't used my gallery in months in fact).
I'll fix it if you can help me see what "it" is.
Thanks


Edit... do you mean the frowny emoji at the end? It may be a TapaCrap set that isn't playing well with others. Just a guess.
Click to expand...
Post.png
 
smartcooky said:
[qimg]https://www.dropbox.com/s/gck7d3infw1xpr4/Post.png?raw=1[/qimg]
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Right... that's a frown emoji from the default Tapa set. (eta... I'm conflating emoji and emoticon, again. Sorry)
I'll try to just go back to doing it by hand, mostly...

:)


On the flip side... there's a few common bbcodes that Tapa doesn't render. Hilite among the most common. I just handcode b and /b for bold instead.
 
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