Pandemic Panic Must Stop

[The Atheist]

Yes. It looks very much as if this version is a lot more likely to kill young people than the earlier versions, but some people prefer to bury their heads in the sand and pretend its not happening.

There's a universe of difference between ignoring something and saying it's overblown panic. Yes, the virus kills kids! OMFG!1!!!

But very, very few of them, and I'd bet almost exclusively those with serious pre-existing conditions.

Ironically, the panicked people are ignoring the potentially lifelong harm done by kids missing months of schoolwork. Or, in the case of Victoria, almost a year's worth of schoolwork, and for what? They've ended up with the worst of both worlds - 200+ days of economic and educational harm and it's completely failed to stop the virus.

Yay for Dan Andrews, the Covid hero!

 

[smartcooky]

I didn't ignore it, I highlighted it.

Without the pre-existing conditions, they almost certainly wouldn't be in ICU.

And if they were not infected with Covid, they wouldn't be in ICU either!

Without knowing what that capacity is, it's a meaningless statement.

As you say, NZ and SC are about the same population.

NZ has around 80 PICU beds in the entire country.

Wrong. We have ONE PICU unit in the whole country.

https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/intensive-care-in-new-zealand-time-for-a-national-network

"In New Zealand, there are approximately 4.6 critical care beds per 100,000 population. These are distributed throughout 29 ICUs/HDUs (adult and mixed), one PICU."

Its at Starship Hospital and it has 22 beds

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/starship-hospital-to-expand-childrens-icu/UYODD4QU4EUMD2CMBXLEOKFDFI/

I'd expect SC has two or three times as many, and if we're generous and say 5 times as many ever, that's all of 400 kids.

NZ has 358 ICU beds total (4.6 per 100,000)

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/ventilators_and_icu_capacity_11_may_2020.pdf

SC has 1,459 [18 per 100,000]

https://www.kff.org/other/state-ind...0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}

Like I keep saying, panicking over numbers...

Question for you and Lionking - that he keeps failing to answer, so I'll give you a shot as well:

What number of children is ok to be in an ICU with Covid?

If it's zero, expect to stay at level 3 forever, because kids are all going to get it.



The numbers would scarier if they were actual numbers. Percentages hide a lot.

"The most", "X%%"

Some numbers would help with perspective.

https://www.wltx.com/article/news/h...sing/101-c944051a-afc4-4f70-97a6-22aaa37f88fb

"The week of June 10th, there were just 173 cases for 11-20-year-olds and as of last week [@ 1 September], that number has increased to 7,713."

Its now September 5 in the US, and the number will have climbed a lot. If I had to guess, looking at the data here which doesn't give specific data for children...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/south-carolina-covid-cases.html

I would say its over 9,000 now.

Those numbers won't bother you though. I'm sure you will be able to spin / handwave / fabricate justification for why you think the suffering of 9,000 kids and their families is insignificant
.
.

 

[marting]

I didn't ignore it, I highlighted it.

Without the pre-existing conditions, they almost certainly wouldn't be in ICU.



Without knowing what that capacity is, it's a meaningless statement.

As you say, NZ and SC are about the same population.

NZ has around 80 PICU beds in the entire country. I'd expect SC has two or three times as many, and if we're generous and say 5 times as many ever, that's all of 400 kids.

Like I keep saying, panicking over numbers...

Question for you and Lionking - that he keeps failing to answer, so I'll give you a shot as well:

What number of children is ok to be in an ICU with Covid?

If it's zero, expect to stay at level 3 forever, because kids are all going to get it.



The numbers would scarier if they were actual numbers. Percentages hide a lot.

"The most", "X%%"

Some numbers would help with perspective.

Apparently there are less than 40 pediatric ICU beds in all of South Carolina. And, as I posted earlier, nearly half of the ICU patients could have been vaccinated so were 12 y/o or older. Leaves less than 20 kids under 10 y/o.

Aug 26.
https://www.postandcourier.com/heal...cle_e2ba8ca2-04ff-11ec-8a67-db2231000dc9.html

Across South Carolina, more than 30 children are currently hospitalized with the coronavirus. Sarah Pack/MUSC
...
Nearly three dozen children across the state are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the collaborative’s data, and at least three pediatric patients are now ventilated.
...
Inside South Carolina’s four children’s hospitals, the pediatric intensive care units are running between 71 percent and 100 percent full. On Aug. 25, between the four facilities, 12 children were in holding patterns in the emergency departments. They all needed a hospital bed. None were available.

 

[Carlotta]

No, no, you don't understand! Those aren't children, they're numbers!

 

[JoeMorgue]

No, no, you don't understand! Those aren't children, they're numbers!

*Shakes you* STOP PANICKING!

(Insert the scene from Airplane! here)

 

[smartcooky]

No, no, you don't understand! Those aren't children, they're numbers!

Yep. To paraphrase what someone said earlier?

"Some of these children might die, but that is a risk I am prepared to take"

 

[smartcooky]

*Shakes you* STOP PANICKING!

(Insert the scene from Airplane! here)

Your wish is my command!

 

[The Atheist]

And if they were not infected with Covid, they wouldn't be in ICU either!

I notice you're avoiding the main point - how are you going to stop kids being infected? Close school forever?

Wrong. We have ONE PICU unit in the whole country.

I know, my daughter in law works at it.

Its at Starship Hospital and it has 22 beds

Yet had 38 kids in it during the RSV epidemic. It has surge capacity to around 80.

Thanks for highlighting something I've posted, though - the disgrace of Cindy and her minions allowing capacity to fall well below needs.

Those numbers won't bother you though. I'm sure you will be able to spin / handwave / fabricate justification for why you think the suffering of 9,000 kids and their families is insignificant

"Suffering" Jesus H Christ.

I repeat, how are you going to stop this hideous suffering? Are you going to put all children into isolation?

Oh look, someone with some numbers that actually mean something!

Apparently there are less than 40 pediatric ICU beds in all of South Carolina.

So, very similar to NZ. No doubt they also have surge capacity, so probably 100 beds available.

100 kids.

Out of a population of 1,000,000 children.

I make that a rate of one in every ten thousand children.

That is indeed the child apocalypse! (not aimed at you, marting, nor is the rest, but thanks for posting accurate data!)

I commend people to look at the description of "panic" again. Irrational response. And if there's anything less rational than destroying the education of 999,900 children to stop 100 going to hospital I'd be very hard pressed to find it.

And even then...

And, as I posted earlier, nearly half of the ICU patients could have been vaccinated so were 12 y/o or older. Leaves less than 20 kids under 10 y/o.

20 kids.

Out of 1,000,000.

It is tragic that any kid goes to hospital, and I will note that my youngest son spent two weeks in Starship three years ago, most of the time with three ingoing and three outgoing tubes, including a major operation that removed 30 cm of his small intestine I know exactly what it feels like to have a kid seriously ill.

It is a much greater tragedy to deprive all children of education to protect a minuscule percentage of them.

 

[mgidm86]

There's a universe of difference between ignoring something and saying it's overblown panic. Yes, the virus kills kids! OMFG!1!!!

But very, very few of them, and I'd bet almost exclusively those with serious pre-existing conditions.

Ironically, the panicked people are ignoring the potentially lifelong harm done by kids missing months of schoolwork. Or, in the case of Victoria, almost a year's worth of schoolwork, and for what? They've ended up with the worst of both worlds - 200+ days of economic and educational harm and it's completely failed to stop the virus.

Yay for Dan Andrews, the Covid hero!

Life long harm from missing school - that's quite a claim. All the over the top worry over kids missing some school makes me laugh. The real problem is that school is daycare and parents can't work.

Life long harm! Getting sick from Covid has caused life long harm in many children, but they didn't die so...shrug.

 

[The Atheist]

No, no, you don't understand! Those aren't children, they're numbers!

*Shakes you* STOP PANICKING!

Thanks for the terribly amusing responses.

Instead of posting highly non-pith-worthy, idiotic, comments, please help these other guys answer the question they've been assiduously avoiding:

What do you propose doing to stop the tragedy of 0.02% of children ending up in hospital with Covid?

 

[JoeMorgue]

What do you propose doing to stop the tragedy of 0.02% of children ending up in hospital with Covid?

I guess we let them die since anything else is "panicking."

*Cue the "I never said that, show me where I said that, that's a strawman" routine*

 

[The Atheist]

Life long harm from missing school - that's quite a claim. All the over the top worry over kids missing some school makes me laugh.

Yeah heck, mea culpa making such outlandish claims. Glad I gave you a laugh though.

Oh, wait - don't argue with me about it, I'll believe you, but you need to talk to: UNESCO

School closures carry high social and economic costs for people across communities. Their impact however is particularly severe for the most vulnerable and marginalized boys and girls and their families. The resulting disruptions exacerbate already existing disparities within the education system but also in other aspects of their lives.

Also from UNESCO,

The National Academy of Sciences in USA,

and the British Medical Journal, just for starters, because there appears to be a wealth of high-quality scientific research saying closing schools is negative.

I'm sorry I put more weight in that research than some random geezer on the internet. I'll change my ways immediately - ****, those scientists, pediatricians and child mental health experts are wankers.

The real problem is that school is daycare and parents can't work.

Is it? I didn't know that, so thanks. Funny how none of those papers, me, or anyone else mentioned it.

You're a legend mate, knowing all this cool stuff that nobody else on the planet is aware of.

Life long harm! Getting sick from Covid has caused life long harm in many children, but they didn't die so...shrug.

Yep, and even though 0.001% of them may die, we should use your superior knowledge and analysis to keep schools closed forever.

That bloody selfish 99.999%!

 

[The Atheist]

I guess we let them die since anything else is "panicking."

*Cue the "I never said that, show me where I said that, that's a strawman" routine*

Thanks for that.

I asked you a genuine question, and your response is all that needs be said - you don't even have a vague suggestion of what to do so resorted to type.

Extremely well played.

 

[smartcooky]

I notice you're avoiding the main point - how are you going to stop kids being infected? Close school forever?

Mask mandates for a start, then vaccinations when they become available for under 12 yos

I know, my daughter in law works at it.)

Evidence that this is true? (I remind you of your conversation with Norman Alexander!)

I repeat, how are you going to stop this hideous suffering? Are you going to put all children into isolation?

See my first comment above.

I commend people to look at the description of "panic" again. Irrational response. And if there's anything less rational than destroying the education of 999,900 children to stop 100 going to hospital I'd be very hard pressed to find it.

What an exaggeration, and load of utter horsecock? You're panicking about something that isn't a thing. No children are having their educations destroyed. Ever heard of "remote learning". Plenty of kids do remote or home schooling and they never spend a day of their lives in a classroom, yet they go on to live fruitful, enjoyable and full lives... must be a miracle

And even then...

20 kids.

Out of 1,000,000.

And your point is?

It is tragic that any kid goes to hospital, and I will note that my youngest son spent two weeks in Starship three years ago, most of the time with three ingoing and three outgoing tubes, including a major operation that removed 30 cm of his small intestine I know exactly what it feels like to have a kid seriously ill.

So do I, and that is why I would never wish it on any other parent, not even if it was only one in a million

That you have had that experience, and then take the position you do makes that position even more vile and disgusting that I thought.

It is a much greater tragedy to deprive all children of education to protect a minuscule percentage of them.

Education is more important than life itself.. got it!

 

[smartcooky]

What do you propose doing to stop the tragedy of 0.02% of children ending up in hospital with Covid?

Nice bait and switch fail

You keep bleating about percentages being meaningless, and demand that your adversaries come up with actual numbers, so we do come up with actual researched and sourced numbers, and you go right back to using percentage as a crutch.


You've moved the goalposts around so much they are back where they started!

 

[The Atheist]

Mask mandates for a start, then vaccinations when they become available for under 12 yos

So, sometime after Christmas. Schools stay closed until then, right?

What an exaggeration, and load of utter horsecock? You're panicking about something that isn't a thing.

Same as I said before - we have the unresearched, unverified, personal opinion of some random bloke on the internet against an enormous body of meticulously researched evidence by scientists and pediatricians across the world.

You clearly didn't look at the links.

Education is more important than life itself.. got it!

Do you even read, bro?

We're talking about 20 kids in ICU against 999,980 not in ICU. You obviously don't even begin to understand the greatest good.

You have no clue, and no answers, which is why you continue to avoid the question.

What is an acceptable level of harm from Covid in children?

The crickets are deafening.

Nice bait and switch fail

Except it's nothing of the kind. I repeat, do you even read?

You keep bleating about percentages being meaningless, and demand that your adversaries come up with actual numbers, so we do come up with actual researched and sourced numbers, and you go right back to using percentage as a crutch.

Utter bollocks, the numbers you came up with were nonsense, which is why I thanked Marting for producing actual data.

And I've taken pains to use both percentages and actual numbers, but your inability to read missed that point too. If you had 50% (0.5, 1/2) of a clue you wouldn't even have gone there, but anything other than answer the simple question.

Your responses are increasingly pathetic and desperate.

Here, I'll try again:

What is an acceptable level of harm from Covid in children?

You've moved the goalposts around so much they are back where they started!

Alas, posting nonsense does not make it true.

I haven't moved position at all, which is that education of the overwhelming, almost total, majority, is more important than saving the very tiny number of children who will get sick and/or die.

 

[smartcooky]

What is an acceptable level of harm from Covid in children?
What is an acceptable level of harm from Covid in children?

NONE!

There is NO level of harm to children that is acceptable to me. There may be a level of harm I might have to tolerate, but that doesn't mean I have to accept it!

NOTE: If you decide to answer DO NOT SNIP OUT THE SECOND SENTENCE ABOVE. It qualifies the first sentence. If you snip it out, then you are being dishonest.

 

[smartcooky]

So, sometime after Christmas. Schools stay closed until then, right?

Is there a shortage of masks that would have us waiting until Christmas?

Also, you ignored this bit...

"Ever heard of "remote learning". Plenty of kids do remote or home schooling and they never spend a day of their lives in a classroom, yet they go on to live fruitful, enjoyable and full lives."

This is a fact you cannot ignore. You've got your evidence and links, I have mine

https://parents.education.govt.nz/primary-school/schooling-in-nz/home-education/

https://www.businessinsider.com/rea...test-way-to-teach-kids-today-2018-1?r=AU&IR=T

"Research suggests homeschooled children tend to do better on standardized tests, stick around longer in college, and do better once they're enrolled. A 2009 study showed that the proportion of homeschoolers who graduated from college was about 67%, while among public school* students it was 59%."

Most of this research finds that being homeschooled does not harm children's development of social skills, as measured in these studies. In fact, some research finds that homeschooled children score more highly than children who attend school on measurements of socialization.​

*Note for British readers: in NZ a public school actually is what those in teh UK would call a State School. What is know as a Public School in the UK (Eton, Harrow, Winchester etc) are called Private Schools in NZ.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/101066521/how-many-new-zealand-children-are-homeschooled

"Just over 6000 Kiwi kids were taught at home last year [2017]. These students belong to 3022 families, and the average age of homeschoolers was 12."​

And its on the rise, becoming ever more popular...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/433114/record-jump-in-home-schooling-enrolments

"The jump to a total of 7192 children followed several years in which home education has been rising by about 200 per annum. But home educators told RNZ they expected a much bigger jump following the national lockdown, which forced 800,000 school children to learn from home."

"The Covid-19 pandemic has driven the biggest-ever increase in home-schooling enrolments, with 619 more children learning from home in July this year than at the same time last year."​

None of this is your "pandemic panic", what it is, is plain ordinary Kiwi commonsense!!!

I haven't moved position at all, which is that education of the overwhelming, almost total, majority, is more important than saving the very tiny number of children who will get sick and/or die.

Then I find your position morally repugnant!

 

[rdwight]

NONE!

There is NO level of harm to children that is acceptable to me. There may be a level of harm I might have to tolerate, but that doesn't mean I have to accept it!

The truth is, as parents, the acceptable level is - hopefully not our kids. No level of harm is impossible. One of my kids has been in the hospital for the flu twice. I still send him to school. Even though there are terrible parents that knowingly send their kids to school sick. Every. Single. Year.

It sucks, and I love my kids. But there is no safe place for them, and they are at risk all the time. Whether it's being in the car, or playing at the park, parents accept certain risks. We hope and try our best so that we aren't the outlier, but much like the risks associating with vaccination, we take the chance. To put it all in perspective, there has been a total of 2 deaths in the 5-17 age range in my entire state during this pandemic in regards to covid. That probably makes the rate at worst 1 death/100k cases. Maybe that is not acceptable, but where exactly should the cut off be if it requires kids to miss out on regular life?

 

[smartcooky]

The truth is, as parents, the acceptable level is - hopefully not our kids. No level of harm is impossible. One of my kids has been in the hospital for the flu twice. I still send him to school. Even though there are terrible parents that knowingly send their kids to school sick. Every. Single. Year.

It sucks, and I love my kids. But there is no safe place for them, and they are at risk all the time. Whether it's being in the car, or playing at the park, parents accept certain risks. We hope and try our best so that we aren't the outlier, but much like the risks associating with vaccination, we take the chance. To put it all in perspective, there has been a total of 2 deaths in the 5-17 age range in my entire state during this pandemic in regards to covid. That probably makes the rate at worst 1 death/100k cases. Maybe that is not acceptable, but where exactly should the cut off be if it requires kids to miss out on regular life?

I didn't not say no level harm was a possibility - I said no level of harm is acceptable. The difference is a lot more than semantics.

Yeah, hopefully not my kids, but some people are selfish, they are singularly incapable of empathising for anyone else's situation but their own. Oh sure they make all the right noises and say all the right things, but deep down they actually don't give a rat's arse!