Pandemic Panic Must Stop

[Skeptic Ginger]

I see this as an effective strategy to drive Rt below 0 and get it down to insignificance. But I don't think this works as well if it's endemic and it continues to circulate month after month, year after year, infecting those whose immunity has waned. If it's endemic, almost everyone is going to get exposed to it. Delta may even have an R0 > 1 amongst vaccinated. The vaccine people should be working overtime to test boosters on folks over 50 and get data on efficacy. Delta should shorten the time and numbers needed.

Vaccines have brought it from a pretty dangerous virus to more in line with a bad flu.

Flu is more dangerous than a lot of people think, but I digress.

If you look at the examples we have, schools have been identified as a source that amplifies respiratory infections.

This is how I explain it, over simplified of course: You got a couple kids sick over summer. They go to class and now they infect the other kids. Those kids go home and infect their parents who go to work and infect their coworkers who don't have kids in school. So every fall respiratory infections spread in the whole community.

As for the benefit when the viruses are endemic, that's true for influenza. Now we have all those grandparents who don't get the most robust result from influenza vaccine. Kids do. So by vaccinating kids we protect the elderly who the vaccine doesn't work as well for.

As for the role kids are going to play in the transmission of COVID, we don't really know. It hasn't happened yet that they have a vaccine. It hasn't happened yet that schools are all open. But if we look at influenza there are some parallels. The COVID vaccine doesn't work as well in the elderly and schools are likely to amplify the number of cases.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be working on those boosters. We should also be working on bringing as many of those vaccine resisters around as we can. I think we'll find the core of the COVID antivaxxers is smaller than it might currently appear.

But why can't we do all 3 of those things at once?

When the vaccine first became available, I, like a lot of people, was frustrated trying to find a dose. My son drove 5 hours to another town to get a dose. Trebochet couldn't get one in his county because they kept the minimum age higher than in other counties.

But by the time my son needed his second dose it was available locally. Now you can easily get a vaccine appointment here. So we have enough vaccine and enough places to get it and enough people to give the vaccine.

I think we can do all three of those things here. I can't speak for other countries. But I think there are plenty of reasons to see vaccinating kids as key to interrupting ongoing transmission.

And that's without even getting to the issue these schools can't open with everyone quarantined after exposures.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

To clarify about Trump being pro-vaccine:

"“But I recommend — take the vaccines,” he said. “I did it, it’s good.”

A small chorus of boos followed that endorsement."

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/na...0210822-7izrqjsqd5h65mfsz5kycdqrza-story.html

Are people panicking when they extrapolate "a small chorus" to "many"?

No.

First, no one is panicking.

Second, Dump made one comment at one rally. He's been pushed to say something by people reminding him he should take credit for the vaccine. That's all that matters to him, his own ego. But he isn't exactly out there promoting the vaccine. He hasn't made any ads or public service announcements.

You might be giving him too much credit. The proof will be if anything with these antivaxxers changes. I don't expect much to come of his one comment in one rally.

 

[Orphia Nay]

No.

First, no one is panicking.

Second, Dump made one comment at one rally. He's been pushed to say something by people reminding him he should take credit for the vaccine. That's all that matters to him, his own ego. But he isn't exactly out there promoting the vaccine. He hasn't made any ads or public service announcements.

You might be giving him too much credit. The proof will be if anything with these antivaxxers changes. I don't expect much to come of his one comment in one rally.

I'm not giving him any credit. I'm giving a majority of Republicans credit, going by the stats and the crowd.

Don't change the subject to him or his ego.

I was talking about the small number in opposition to his pro-vaccine statement.

 

[smartcooky]

I'm not saying we shouldn't be working on those boosters. We should also be working on bringing as many of those vaccine resisters around as we can. I think we'll find the core of the COVID antivaxxers is smaller than it might currently appear.

As I said in another thread, we're dealing with two different groups

The first group are the core anti-vax extremists and are against ALL vacciantion. They are the traditional morons, people like RFK Jr, Ty Bollinger, Erin Elizabeth and Naomi Wolf; the fringe minority of ignorant fools. Their motivation is largely anti-establishment, and anti-government, and they exist across the whole political spectrum from far right to far left. These people and their followers will be almost impossible to turn.

You have a better chance of turning members of the second, much larger group. These are the gullible idiots who hang on Trump's every word, blindly and gleefully eating up the poison being shoved down their throats by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham and Alex Jones. This group's motivation is entirely political, and they are near exclusively on the political right to far right. They are really only against the Covid-19 vaccine, and only because their tribal mouthpieces tell them to be. Its all about their "freedumbs" and "triggering the Libz"; this is more important to them that their own lives or the lives of their families.
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[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm not giving him any credit. I'm giving a majority of Republicans credit, going by the stats and the crowd.

Don't change the subject to him or his ego.

I was talking about the small number in opposition to his pro-vaccine statement.

Hard to say how many people that voice vote boo included.

I'm not trying to change any subject. You have a different view of the GOP anti COVID vaxxer crowd we are dealing with here than I do. It's completely politicized and it's a mess. Dump is hardly helping with like I said, one comment at one rally.

It might be the news is making it look like the GOP contribution to the problem is overrated. But the GOP has shrunk so that the core of who is still in the party are pro-Dump, anti-reality folks. Perhaps ex-Republicans are who you are referring to.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

As I said in another thread, we're dealing with two different groups

The first group are the core anti-vax extremists and are against ALL vacciantion. They are the traditional morons, people like RFK Jr, Ty Bollinger, Erin Elizabeth and Naomi Wolf; the fringe minority of ignorant fools. Their motivation is largely anti-establishment, and anti-government, and they exist across the whole political spectrum from far right to far left. These people and their followers will be almost impossible to turn.

You have a better chance of turning members of the second, much larger group. These are the gullible idiots who hang on Trump's every word, blindly and gleefully eating up the poison being shoved down their throats by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham and Alex Jones. Their motivation is entirely political, and they are near exclusively on the political right to far right. They are really only against the Covid-19 vaccine, and only because their tribal mouthpieces tell them to be. Its all about their "freedumbs" and "triggering the Libz"; this is more important to them that their own lives or the lives of their families.
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Yep. I agree.

 

[lionking]

Whose opinion?

The OP

 

[lionking]

Sure I do, but it seems you don't, so I've taken a screenshot for you:

[qimg]http://charman.co.nz/icuoz.PNG[/qimg]



Best you go have a talk to the Australian Government Department of Health, then. They're the one saying it.

And how many kids are in ICU right now from car crashes, falls, and other issues?

An apology is warranted thanks.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...-covid19/a5230141-508b-4916-8832-8b92cf4e42f9

A baby at the Royal Children's Hospital aged under three weeks has tested positive to coronavirus as four cases have emerged in a cluster at the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU).

 

[smartcooky]

An apology is warranted thanks.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...-covid19/a5230141-508b-4916-8832-8b92cf4e42f9

You'll never get one.

(wait for the strawman accusation/ lame excuse)

The suggestion that there were no children in ICU with Covid was never going to be a winner... it would only have been a matter of time before it happened anyway, and this one you posted was back in July

 

[angrysoba]

"I'm concerned about..."
"PANICKING ARE YOU?"
"No, I said I am concerned, and that I think we should...?"
"PANIC BUY?!?!?"
"No, we should implement..."
"PANIC MEASURES?"
"No. We need to take the virus seriously, ..."
"YOU MEAN WE SHOULD PANIC!!11?!??!eleventy???1?1"

 

[d4m10n]

Of course it's possible to a weight fears too heavily when doing cost/benefit calcs, but if we're going to talk about those, we have to be quite specific.

The constant state of panic being encouraged by media and scaredy-cats.

Most of what I've been seeing in the media is encouragement to get vaccinated and take other reasonable measures.

Perhaps there are good examples of panicmongering in mainstream media, but I've not seen them.

ETA: I've seen plenty of panicmongering from the anti-vax side, though.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Going down to my local war memorial and asking what all the whining is about, the death toll wasn't that bad.

 

[d4m10n]

Going down to my local war memorial and asking what all the whining is about, the death toll wasn't that bad.

Bring your own Ouija.

 

[The Atheist]

It is currently August 24.

And I can only use what's reported when it's reported.

Panic doesn't aid the response to the pandemic. And the stress created under these conditions can itself be a detriment to health. But panic will be an unavoidable consequence of any mass crisis.

Ah, someone gets it.

And we should be easing the panic, rather than encouraging it.

Gotta say, I'm very pleased with the responses so far - nothing illustrates my point better than people panicking in a thread about panicking.

I'm gonna highlight this next bit:
________________________________

Covid is with us forever.

It will not be stamped out. It will infect everyone at some stage.

Hopefully, vaccines will continue to protect people from the worst symptoms of the disease.

As the "new normal"* will include Covid as an endemic disease, we should chill and accept it and in the immortal words of Douglas Adams Don't Panic.

*hate the term, but relevant, so I'm using it.
__________________________________

 

[dudalb]

Nor would I. You already have a high percentage of morons (mostly, but not exclusively Republicans) who say they will never get vaccinated against Covid.

Bingo.

 

[ponderingturtle]

When does it stop being a pandemic and is just endemic?

 

[JoeMorgue]

"Panic doesn't help!" isn't valid criticism if nobody is actually panicking and you're just classifying "not pretending it doesn't exist" as panicking.

Wearing a mask isn't panicking. Getting the vaccine isn't panicking. Washing your hands isn't panicking. Practicing social distancing isn't panicking.

And getting upset at people who don't do those things and are making the problem worse isn't being "over emotional."

Being furious at anti-vaxxers isn't being "overly emotional," it's being minimally observant and human.

Simply being scared that we're living in the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu is not "being overly emotional" or "panicking."

What exactly are people doing in response to the pandemic that isn't those things that constitutes "panicking?"

Putting effort into projecting a detached edgelord "Nothing bothers me" glibness persona isn't "not panicking." it's just being a jerk. It doesn't make you better than the people who are bothered by things.

You're not better than us because you think people dying for no reason isn't something to get worked up about.

 

[The Atheist]

That was to the end of July. The numbers are different now. I am not permitted to reveal them though.

"I know the truth but can't reveal it.

Sorry mate, I didn't realise we had James Bond in the thread.

Classic.

Want to guess how many are kids? And how many of those in ICU now?

I'm sorry, Mr Bond, that information is confidential and I can't tell you.

You forgot kids with life-threatening diseases and cancer-sufferers, among others. Some of all of those have COVID. They are not mutually exclusive conditions.

Read the bolded part I just posted, and I'll note it here for you as well:

They're all going to get it at some stage.

I hate to break it to you, but children die every bloody day, and most of them for most idiotic reasons. We had one two days ago run over and killed in his driveway. Children die.

None of those measures are cost effective. There are better approaches.

Ah, so money is more important than lives.

Finally!

There were 1900 kids hospitalized and 358 died, pay attention. This is the number of infections in kids (link in the other thread):

You seem to be getting confused. I was the one who noted the number of deaths, and how that 358 is fewer than are murdered by their parents, infinitely fewer than die of being killed in car crashes, and a tenth of kids killed by gunfire.

368 is not a scary number, it's a very. very small number.

Let's do some actual maths here to display the size of the imbalance that is causing panic reactions by so many people.

368 American children. In a population of 73 million kids.

That is 0.0005% of them.

What you and other panickin' Petes want to do is make the other 99.9995% of children screw up their education for one single death out of every 200,000 kids.

But I hate kids...

I can't for the life of me understand what you think we are doing that indicates panic.

Happy to unpack that for you.

Pretty simple description from Dictionary.com that I don't believe anyone would disagree with.

n a sudden overwhelming fear, with or without cause, that produces hysterical or irrational behavior, and that often spreads quickly through a group of persons or animals.

Irrational. Note that word.

I see asking (using USA as an example) 76,999,632 kids to do enormous harm to themselves to protect 362 is highly bloody irrational.

Death and harm in whom?

As few kids as possible, and that means I am in favor of vaccinating children as soon as we can. And BTW, the direct damage to kids was only one aspect of the reason to vaccinate kids. I listed others in my reply to you.

Don't be dodging the question.

How many dead children would you consider a good outcome?

I suspect it was to avoid addressing this discussion in the other thread, 'I know, I'll just start another discussion in another sub-forum.'

The hell.

I started it here because - as I have been proven correct - it's a somewhat controversial topic and I don't like the medicine thread being about anything other than the science.

This is clearly a social issue.

 

[JoeMorgue]

"You can't map your emotions to my satisfaction on a flowchart of purely mathematical risk/reward graphs."

The person upset that his wife died, the person upset his wife and daughter died, the person upset at the Killing Fields, and the person upset that all organic life is going to end in the eventual heat death of the universe are not having a "Who's being upset the most efficiently?" contest, lest of all one for your benefit.

 

[The Atheist]

Well it hasn't worked has it. He's getting torn a new one here too.

Your dreams aren't being fulfilled, sorry.

What you're seeing is the perfect iteration of what I'm saying - there are people here panicking. I could list them for you, but that's not allowed.

They do matter, that is why we have huge amounts of money and effort spent on trying to solve those other problems rather than people just throwing up their hands and saying, "Meh, 50 dead kids is fine. We're all good here."

Did not understand the OP, but do tell me what number of kids you think is an acceptable death total for Covid, and how panic responses help the fight.

The thing is that it doesn't have to be endemic.

Wow, do tell!

We already have James Bond in the thread, and now we're joined by Nostradamus!

A Red Letter Day indeed.

In what way will Covid not become endemic?

No.

First, no one is panicking.

Really?

If you go all the way back to the start, I wasn't convinced that it was anything but a Kiwi problem, and a degree of panic here is to be expected when nobody had even thought about Covid for 6 months. Covid was something that happened overseas, like BLM marches, or Premier Football.

Irrational response to a known threat.

I'm seeing plenty of irrational behaviour here.

And I would call the response of NZ and Australian media right now as full-steam-panic mode. Strangely enough the one person down this end of the world who's got it right is on my "three most detested people" list, Scott Morrison.

An apology is warranted thanks.

Don't be absurd - I quoted the official numbers given by your government, but I will thank you, because you've unintentionally given me some info I wouldn't have noticed, and you've also given a perfect example of what I mean by irrational response.

This is gold:

A baby at the Royal Children's Hospital aged under three weeks has tested positive to coronavirus as four cases have emerged in a cluster at the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU).

The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) confirmed today two parents, one patient and a healthcare worker had been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the NICU at the hospital.

Hey, I'll give you 6 points for effort, but if you read that carefully, the babies were already in the NICU when they caught it. Geddit? They caught it while there from a parent. They aren't there because of Covid.

Classic.

Do let me know if any of them die of Covid, because I'm picking they won't, even though you couldn't get a much more vulnerable human than a baby in an NICU.

Most of what I've been seeing in the media is encouragement to get vaccinated and take other reasonable measures.

Perhaps there are good examples of panicmongering in mainstream media, but I've not seen them.

You might well be right - America & UK might have moved beyond the panic stage. Outside of the crazy people, things are looking much like UK.

Putting effort into projecting a detached edgelord "Nothing bothers me" glibness persona isn't "not panicking." it's just being a jerk. It doesn't make you better than the people who are bothered by things.

You're not better than us because you think people dying for no reason isn't something to get worked up about.

No, I'm better than you because I read and understand posts before answering, so as not make an idiot of myself.

I've made it abundantly clear that I'm talking about panic response, and you go off on a completely typical nonsense rant against some strawman you wish were participating in the thread. Your posts have nothing to do with what I'm saying.

I must add "edgelord" to my vocabulary - I'd thought people might mistake its meaning, but the regularity you cast it about makes it seem kinda cool.

Thanks for that - at least one thing came out of your irrelevant and ill-consider response.

We now have James Bond, Nostradamus and The Edgelord.

(is it ok if I capitalise the "The" as well? I've always liked that look)