• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Pandemic Panic Must Stop

... As for kids too young to get vaccinated, there's not much to be done. Closing schools and other NPIs just delays things but doesn't change the ultimate result absent Vaccine 2.0 or some yet to be discovered treatment. Rather the focus should be on testing vaccines on lower age groups and doing risk/benefit on them. This is not simple because it takes a really huge number to know as the risk level is so low anyway. But to some degree it can be assessed by collecting and reviewing the extensive data on kids 12-13 then dropping the age in increments given a good benefit/risk profile.
One goal of vaccinating kids under age 12 is to slow the case numbers down so hospitals can handle them. Another is to prevent having to shut the schools down again which apparently is already happening. And another is to prevent kids in schools from amplifying the infection numbers as is a known problem with influenza vaccine.

You vaccinate kids to prevent the spread of infection to others in whom the vaccine has been less effective. Examples in my other post were pertussis, varicella (chicken pox) and influenza. And now that I think about it another argument for making varicella vaccine a routine childhood vaccine was to save the tremendous cost of lost work time adults have staying home to care for kids with chicken pox.
 
That was to the end of July. The numbers are different now. I am not permitted to reveal them though. Just to show how different, your numbers show 5600-odd cases 1-Jan to 1-Aug. NSW alone has been reporting 600+ new cases per day for a couple of weeks now - it's been in the news, remember? That's over 6000 cases since the start of August. Want to guess how many are kids? And how many of those in ICU now?


FEDERAL Health Department, not state Health Departments. They are a bunch of bureaucratic bean-counters. They don't run hospitals.

You forgot kids with life-threatening diseases and cancer-sufferers, among others. Some of all of those have COVID. They are not mutually exclusive conditions. And paediatric ICU is not unlimited. Under this government, we are scraping to fund hospital facilities generally and paediatric facilities in particular. Gladys used to be our state health minister and she knows this. COVID patients add to the burden on an already stretched ICU capability. So when they are full, we do...what? Which kids do we deny access to ICU first? Toss a coin?

You really are sounding more and more like Bolsanaro. It's just a "little flu", no need to panic. Don't be that guy.


As usual, someone here is wrong... but they will never admit it, they will just double down on wrong

https://www.abc.net.au/radionationa...ks-of-the-delta-variant-for-children/13510302
"Parents are getting worried about what they're reading and hearing about the Delta variant in children.The increased rates of infection are extraordinary - 10-15 times higher than last year in adolescents and younger children.
Yet in Australia so far the rate of childhood and adolescent hospitalisation is low at around 2%.
But overseas there are worrying stories emerging, especially from the Southern United States of a massive surge in delta cases due to low rates of vaccination and mask wearing and a flow through to paediatric intensive care units, some of which are full."
But hey, 984 dead in Australia, 630,000 dead in the US, 4.4 million dead world wide... nothing to panic about. :rolleyes:
 
I guess the big question is: where is the dividing line between a reasonable/rational reaction to the situation (such as mask mandates) and a panic reaction.

True, that's a small number of hospitalized given the total population. But...
- There are also probably thousands of kids who are extremely ill who haven't been hospitalized, and might suffer symptoms of 'long covid' for months.
- At least part of the reason the numbers are so low is that some people ARE taking the risks seriously (by engaging in social distancing, wearing masks, etc.)


There are also people who need to have a hospital bed for other medical emergencies, but cannot get one because they are log-jammed with Covid cases.
 
Where did you get that (vague) figure?




Note the purple bars!





Covid-19%20Vacc%20demographics.png



The part I find most concerning is the age groups of those who say they will never be vaccinated. If this holds, then as the population ages and old farts like me die off, the vaccinated rate will drop off.
 
Last edited:
Strained hospitals should refuse to treat unvaccinated covidiots. Just lock them up in a parking lot or tent or wherever, and wait.

(Not entirely serious, but tempted in that direction... maybe even actually serious in cases where it's simply either the covidiot or another patient with any other problem but that one)
 
Last edited:
Note the purple bars!





[qimg]https://www.dropbox.com/s/5bkjx6pzxuqogna/Covid-19%20Vacc%20demographics.png?raw=1[/qimg]


The part I find most concerning is the age groups of those who say they will never be vaccinated. If this holds, then as the population ages and old farts like me die off, the vaccinated rate will drop off.

That seems to be polling parents asking them about vaccinating their teens.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/08/11/teen-covid-vaccines-parent-attitudes-survey/

Not quite what I was asking.

Now Trump has gone public supporting vaccines, the rate might improve.
 
That seems to be polling parents asking them about vaccinating their teens.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/08/11/teen-covid-vaccines-parent-attitudes-survey/

Not quite what I was asking.


You think parents are going to vax themselves but never their kids, or vice versa?


Now Trump has gone public supporting vaccines, the rate might improve.


I sure hope so, but it not a bet I would take


Judging by the way he was booed in Alabama, its going to fall on deaf ears. Those morons will, of course, justify that to themselves by claiming "He was only saying that to get the Libruls and RINOs off his back, he didn't really mean it"
 
Last edited:
Orphia Nay

Here is something more definitive. Its a month old, but will still hold true

https://apnews.com/article/joe-bide...rus-pandemic-36ea18ee3a3397da7edd5b8249f0e477

"Among American adults who have not yet received a vaccine, 35% say they probably will not, and 45% say they definitely will not, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Just 3% say they definitely will get the shots, though another 16% say they probably will."


The date of the article is 24 July 2021, so if we look at the vaccination rate data on that date...
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

...we see that 1 dose was 56.8% and fully vaccinated was 49.2%
Taking the 56.8% figure (because its unlikely that people who got the first shot would not get the second) we see that 43.2% were unvaccinated on that date.

45% of 43.2% is 19.4% who say the definitely won't
35% of 43.2% is 15.1% who say the probably won't


I think you will struggle to reach that 70-80% level
 
Last edited:
We accept risk as a feature of life. We don't enforce cars to drive at 10 mph so nobody gets killed, we don't stop selling fatty foods that cause immense numbers of early deaths, and we don't cut down all the trees in case a kid falls out of it.

You are conflating societal risk with individual risk. As a society any risk of death from all of these things is unacceptable, and we continue to make advances towards lowering those risks to zero while considering the individual's right to choose to take a risk.

We are lowering speed limits, with 30km/k now being quite common in cities and 80km/h around the fringes of large cities. Further, we work on cars that are safer for both the occupants and those around them, with the ultimate goal being autonomous cars that will result in an "as close to 0 death toll as we can possibly get".

We are putting pressure on companies that provide foods full of fats and sugars to make their products more healthy. Look at how the McDonald's menu has changed in just the last few years, and who would have thought that BK would have not one, but two fake meat burgers on their menu?

You might also notice the extent to which the previous governments in NZ have worked towards making the country smoke-free to eliminate deaths from smoking-related diseases.

And just for a point of interest, we do tend to have methods to deal with trees that are a climbing hazard for kids.

We also provide free flu vaccinations for people that are vulnerable to the flu in an effort to stop flu deaths each year. Imagine what we could do on that front if people were willing to actually wear a mask when they had a cold or flu!

If you're saying the only number of acceptable deaths from Covid is zero, then please explain why other deaths don't matter as much.

They do matter, that is why we have huge amounts of money and effort spent on trying to solve those other problems rather than people just throwing up their hands and saying, "Meh, 50 dead kids is fine. We're all good here."
 
That seems to be polling parents asking them about vaccinating their teens.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/08/11/teen-covid-vaccines-parent-attitudes-survey/

Not quite what I was asking.

Now Trump has gone public supporting vaccines, the rate might improve.
Uninsured under 65 have teens? Health conditions, ages 50-64... no that isn't about parents of teens.

This has been all over the news here Orphia. It's not an obscure fact.

As for Dump, he said people should get vaccinated, the crowd booed and he added 'if you want to' or something like that. He's not out there promoting vaccinations.
 
You vaccinate kids to prevent the spread of infection to others in whom the vaccine has been less effective. Examples in my other post were pertussis, varicella (chicken pox) and influenza. And now that I think about it another argument for making varicella vaccine a routine childhood vaccine was to save the tremendous cost of lost work time adults have staying home to care for kids with chicken pox.

I see this as an effective strategy to drive Rt below 0 and get it down to insignificance. But I don't think this works as well if it's endemic and it continues to circulate month after month, year after year, infecting those whose immunity has waned. If it's endemic, almost everyone is going to get exposed to it. Delta may even have an R0 > 1 amongst vaccinated. The vaccine people should be working overtime to test boosters on folks over 50 and get data on efficacy. Delta should shorten the time and numbers needed.

Vaccines have brought it from a pretty dangerous virus to more in line with a bad flu.
 
I see this as an effective strategy to drive Rt below 0 and get it down to insignificance. But I don't think this works as well if it's endemic and it continues to circulate month after month, year after year, infecting those whose immunity has waned. If it's endemic, almost everyone is going to get exposed to it. Delta may even have an R0 > 1 amongst vaccinated. The vaccine people should be working overtime to test boosters on folks over 50 and get data on efficacy. Delta should shorten the time and numbers needed.

Vaccines have brought it from a pretty dangerous virus to more in line with a bad flu.
The thing is that it doesn't have to be endemic. It's only going that way because people have thrown their hands in the air and surrendered. Imagine if that had been our response to Smallpox.
 
I see this as an effective strategy to drive Rt below 0 and get it down to insignificance. But I don't think this works as well if it's endemic and it continues to circulate month after month, year after year, infecting those whose immunity has waned. If it's endemic, almost everyone is going to get exposed to it. Delta may even have an R0 > 1 amongst vaccinated. The vaccine people should be working overtime to test boosters on folks over 50 and get data on efficacy. Delta should shorten the time and numbers needed.

Vaccines have brought it from a pretty dangerous virus to more in line with a bad flu.


The fact is that vaccinated people are very unlikely to get seriously ill or die, so WITH VACCINATION, then yes, this really does become a virus under control.


However, the problem with morons is they see a headline that says 131 Vaccinated People Catch Covid and Die, and they go "OMG!! OMG!! There, see? It doesn't protect you!!!"

They say this because they are too ******* stupid and ignorant to look past the headline. If they did, they would see that this 131 people were only 0.003% of fully vaccinated people, and 0.8% of the breakthrough cases.
 

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom