2020 United States presidential election - Conspiracy theories, alleged fraud, etc

[Matthew Ellard]

Aaaww, I appreciate your heartfelt concern. No worry..

But Bubba, you have lost your memory. You forgot Fox News, contributor Gen. McInerney was a Fox News contributor, although every article says that.

You also keep posting the same debunked claims again and again and again.

You then imagined Sidney Powell said something she didn't and claimed you were in contact with her.

What other delusions are you suffering from?

 

[Bubba]

Aaaww, I appreciate your heartfelt concern. No worry.

Sid and I are old friends. We used to date. She spends the night with me when whatshisface is out of town.

Dont worry about me and covid. I got the secret vaccine those White House press room attendants got months ago.
If you never heard, they were setting up chairs near a hot mic. One said to the other something like "We dont have to worry about covid cuz we are vaccinated"

True story. It was posted on one of those sites y'all avoid. I might go look for the video, if it isnt gone by now. It coulda been faked, but these days, ya never know.

Here it is.

Not quite as I mis-remembered....it was reporters, not attendants, but it looks like the same footage I recall.

Hot mic caught White House reporter John Roberts talking about coronavirus death rates and joking that all they have all been vaccinated around here.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/n...tches-WH-reporter-saying-weve-vaccinated.html

 

[Resume]

But Bubba, you have lost your memory. You forgot Fox News, contributor Gen. McInerney was a Fox News contributor, although every article says that.

You also keep posting the same debunked claims again and again and again.

You then imagined Sidney Powell said something she didn't and claimed you were in contact with her.

What other delusions are you suffering from?

For Bubba.

 

[Matthew Ellard]

Jury is still out on that too. .

Pssst Bubba. There hasn't been any juries. You are having another strong delusion again.

 

[Resume]

Pssst Bubba. There hasn't been any juries. You are having another strong delusion again.

For Bubba.

 

[Resume]

Here it is.

Not quite as I mis-remembered....it was reporters, not attendants, but it looks like the same footage I recall.

So you admit you are so gullible that you intepret jokes as conspiracies?

Good on you.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

So much evidence, and Trump's lawyers can't prove anything of it in Court.
What a bunch of losers.

 

[Resume]

So much evidence, and Trump's lawyers can't prove anything of it in Court.
What a bunch of losers.

Q is a weak stick.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Please Help! How does one determine whether this is true or not??

This guy Aaron J Carpenter claims to be a Marysville, OH city councilman.





If this item is on the level, you'll naturally want to spread the word far and wide.


https://twitter.com/aaronjcarpenter/status/1335634648798523395

The Ware County Election Supervisor says that no one has gotten ahold of any of the county's voting machines, so it was impossible for anyone to have tested one of the machines.

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1334937485030404101

If this item is on the level, you'll naturally want to spread the word far and wide.

 

[Matthew Ellard]

Sid and I are old friends. We used to date. .

Soooooooo...... you used to date Sidney Powell. She can't spell or provide any basic evidence. You can't spell or provide any basic evidence.

You are both Q-Anon followers who keep losing arguments..

Are you sure you two aren't related but dated anyway?

 

[Resume]

Soooooooo...... you used to date Sidney Powell. She can't spell or provide any basic evidence. You can't spell or provide any basic evidence.

You are both Q-Anon followers who keep losing arguments..

Are you sure you two aren't related but dated anyway?

For Bubba.

 

[jsfisher]

You said "the claim may be dismissed as completely bogus."

Yes. Yes, I did.

How is that knowable??

I never alleged it was, this or anything else. Based on the evidence available, though, "bogus" is the correct conclusion."

Maybe Carpenter is nuts, maybe not.

"Nuts" is the odds-on favorite.

Why not file it as an unsubstantiated claim', and wait for more info before concluding??

Why not file "aliens from Alpha Centauri rigged the election" as an unsubstantiated claim? There is enough existing evidence about how the election was run, and enough lack of evidence about things like aliens, that somethings just deserve to be dismissed out of hand. Aaron Carpenter is not the exception.

Meanwhile, Meadmaker indicated the news would have reported it. Maybe they are working on verifying it. Maybe they already did.

Maybe they are all checking the Alpha Centauri lead and don't have time for Aaron.

Maybe....

 

[dudalb]

So much evidence, and Trump's lawyers can't prove anything of it in Court.
What a bunch of losers.

They must have gone to the one law school where a course in Evidence is not required for graduation...

 

[trustbutverify]

Its nothing, really. Just a sideshow.



- Forbes

REJECTED.

Anything else?

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Does Benford's Law work for "election data"? There are certain sets of data pulled from elections where Benford's Law could apply. The number of votes received in a precinct is not one of them. Benford's law for the first digit would not work. Benford's law for the second digit would not work. There isn't any controversy. There isn't any doubt. There isn't any serious debate.

I think Benford's Law can be used in this type of case. Because that is exactly what I did when I started reading about this.

But you have to apply it correctly. In looking at precinct data, what you get is a Benford curve combined with a bell curve. You have to adjust the Benford curve based on the number of possible magnitudes and then overlay the bell curve with appropriate weight.

I did this. Unfortunately I did not save it because there has just been too much. I have had way to many election-relate files going on and I ditched everything.

I had taken one of the counties where it was claimed Benford proved election fraud. I overlaid an adjusted Benford curve and an expected bell curve based on poll predictions. Well, sort of. The math is a bit beyond my ability, but I could approximate it with algorithms. Then I compared that to the actual numbers.

The results were uncanny.

This was a heavily Democratic county, so the poll predictions were about 65% Biden to 35% Trump. The average county size was a little under 1,000 with ranges from about 300 to 1,700.

For Trump, that would mean basically never going over 1,000. And some in single, double, and triple digits. So it should be mostly a Benford curve. But the curve of the actual count would be at about 300, which would mean for leading digits an overlaid bell curve going from 1 to 4 with a peak at 3. That means a prediction of a Benford curve that is accentuated higher in the lower numbers with an odd bump at 3. And that is exactly what is was.

For Biden, he could get over 1,000 in a number of precincts resulting in a higher number of leading digits of 1, but no other numbers. Very little chance of single or even double digits. So, not much of a Benford curve. Mostly 3 digit numbers peaking around 6 to match the projected vote count. But some Benford. With a bump at one for the over 1,000 votes. And that is exactly what it was. A bell curve peaking at 6, but a bit lower on high numbers and a bit higher on the lower numbers due to the overlay of the Benford curve, and a big number for the the ones because of the over-1000 possibility.

It is really creepy. I had no idea you could do things like this. But you have to do it correctly and not just apply a single basic formula. But when done right, it is spooky how it can match a certain curve in ways that you would not expect.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Benford's law is ill suited for voting data, because there are not many orders of magnitude involved.
as DA showed, you can make it work, but that can be seen as defeating the purpose of being a rough-and-ready tool to spot irregularities.

 

[Meadmaker]

For Trump, that would mean basically never going over 1,000. And some in single, double, and triple digits. So it should be mostly a Benford curve. But the curve of the actual count would be at about 300, which would mean for leading digits an overlaid bell curve going from 1 to 4 with a peak at 3. That means a prediction of a Benford curve that is accentuated higher in the lower numbers with an odd bump at 3. And that is exactly what is was.

I would love to see the data, because I don't think there is any reason at all to get a Benford curve, and the idea of a Benford curve but with an odd bump at three because it was overlaid with a Gaussian curve that goes from one to 4 with a peak of 3, doesn't sound very much like a Benford curve at all. Why would one overlay a Benford curve with anything.

In the published examples, what I usually saw was lots of 1s, and not as many twos, and not a bunch of anything else. When drawn on a graph, that looks kind of like a Benford curve, but it isn't, because the spacing of 6,7,8,9, etc matters even if they are small. Somehow they would claim that since the one spot was much bigger than 2, and 2 was bigger than 3, and 3 was bigger than all the rest, that means Benford. However, it doesn't mean that at all..

For Biden, he could get over 1,000 in a number of precincts resulting in a higher number of leading digits of 1, but no other numbers. Very little chance of single or even double digits. So, not much of a Benford curve. Mostly 3 digit numbers peaking around 6 to match the projected vote count. But some Benford. With a bump at one for the over 1,000 votes. And that is exactly what it was. A bell curve peaking at 6, but a bit lower on high numbers and a bit higher on the lower numbers due to the overlay of the Benford curve, and a big number for the the ones because of the over-1000 possibility.

That doesn't sound very much like a Benford curve at all. It sounds like a bell curve peaking around six, which is what one would expect for precinct distributions, but with 1 given an extra boost because the things on one tail of the bell curve were added to things on the other tail of the bell curve.

What does it mean to have "some Benford"?

 

[smartcooky]

A RETIRED general can call for dancing girls and plastic pink flamingos at his military tribunals all he wants, but he has no power over anyone or any military unit to make it happen.

Another nutcase making wild claims it seems.

A judge explained in detail why sworn affidavit evidence is worthless in court.
Any attorney, other than teem crackenn lawyers, would know that one or a million of them are all of equal value.

Unless recycling paper is your business.

Not to even mention that POTUS has no constitutional power to unilaterally declare Martial Law. The Posse Comitatus Act, passed in 1878, by President Rutherford B. Hayes restricts the use of U.S. active duty military troops on American soil

Even if he tried, the military would give him the middle finger unless he had the support of both Houses of Congress.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I would love to see the data, because I don't think there is any reason at all to get a Benford curve, and the idea of a Benford curve but with an odd bump at three because it was overlaid with a Gaussian curve that goes from one to 4 with a peak of 3, doesn't sound very much like a Benford curve at all. Why would one overlay a Benford curve with anything.

The reason is because a Benford curve only applies to certain data sets. If a data set doesn't meet the conditions where Benford is applicable, it does not apply.

But Benford can apply in certain data sets where it is somewhat applicable. When you plot the first digits where a bell curve controls the first digit and Beford only applies somewhat, you get an overlay of the two curves.

For example, if you have only potential values of 100 to 900 with an expected average of 500, you get a bell curve in a Benford analysis. But, if you expand that range to include double digit numbers, and single digit numbers and maybe four digit numbers...then the Benford curve starts taking affect. It bends that bell curve, to a greater or lesser degree, depending on how much Benford applies based on the possibilities of magnitude.

The issue is that you have to determine the of the influence of Benford. If you have a system that has a bell curve within a magnitude, then Benford has no effect.

If you have that same bell curve and expand possibilities beyond that magnitude, then Benford starts having an effect. The degree of that effect is determined by the possibilities of expansion beyond that magnitude.

You have a bell curve. But more magnitudes, more Benford alters that bell curve. And the more possibilities of data within magnitudes, the more Benford influences the curve.

You get both. A bell curve. And a Benford curve. They get overlaid.

They have different significances. The bell curve may be dominate. Or the Benford curve may be dominate.

And the dominance can change for each number. That is why in my calculation, Trump mostly followed a Benford curve, except bent higher on lower numbers and had a weird bump at three. And Biden had mostly a bell curve but was bent higher at lower numbers and was way up on one.

 

[Craig4]

Please Help! How does one determine whether this is true or not??

This guy Aaron J Carpenter claims to be a Marysville, OH city councilman.





If this item is on the level, you'll naturally want to spread the word far and wide.


https://twitter.com/aaronjcarpenter/status/1335634648798523395

Well, the first indication it's not true is the person this Carpenter is a Trump supporter, meaning he likely lacks the intelligence to understand what he's looking at. It's well established that his kind have an intelligence deficit. Then, on the off chance he does get the details right, being a Trump supporter means he lacks integrity so he is probably lying about it. Their kind are also well known for being dishonest. Trump supporters are just a lesser class of person.