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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Bob001 said:
Maybe they should send a trooper to knock on her door? Any of us would be concerned if somebody we expect to be home wasn't answering the phone and wasn't calling us.
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Sounds like an alcoholic bender. Or something more permanent. I'm sure someone will check soon.
 
We should find out tomorrow morning on NV, as they said that they will report more Thursday morning. That would be the magic 270 if it goes for Biden.

WP is projecting that Biden is likely to lose GA, but projecting that he is more likely to win PA.

Nevada has a longer history of going Democratic, so it looks like there is a very good chance Biden will have 270 if reporting goes his way tomorrow, and he maybe will even have 290 if PA goes in his favor.
 
Nevada will be updating daily at 10 AM in the coming days. If I understand it correctly, they haven't recieved the contents of the drop boxes yet due to USPS slowdowns in delivering it, and they don't expect to recieve all of them for a least a few more days.
 
HoverBoarder said:
WP is projecting that Biden is likely to lose GA, but projecting that he is more likely to win PA.
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More likely than what? Than losing? Or more likely than it was before?

HoverBoarder said:
Nevada has a longer history of going Democratic, so it looks like there is a very good chance Biden will have 270 if reporting goes his way tomorrow, and he maybe will even have 290 if PA goes in his favor.
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If polls are broken so are projections IMO.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
You guys ask for proof that any sort of voter fraud happens on any kind of large scale. The problem is, by the very nature of the action and the very nature of the problem that is being pointed out, it is inherently very difficult to demonstrate it is occurring in any significant numbers.
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What the GOP has been doing is so clearly voter fraud on a mass scale, and it is way past time that some of the most egregious ones be put in jail for it.

Closing all of the polling locations in black areas, working to get hundreds of thousands of legal voters off the voter rolls, restricting ballot boxes to one per county whether there is 1.3 million people there or 13,000.

That's some Banana Republic stuff, and we should stop putting up with it, and start putting the perpetrators of that in jail.
 
carlosy said:
Pennylvania tossup?
Trump is leading by more than 10% while 76% have been counted. Yes, I know the Mails will likely turn for him, but 10% at 76%?

I don't see that as a tossup.
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Just to update on PA.

A few minutes ago another tranche of votes were reported in Philadelphia.
23202 ballots of which almost 20000 were for Biden.

As of right now Trump leads in PA by 5.4% with 84% of the votes counted.

tossup. maybe leaning Biden now given recent results in Michigan and Wisconsin.

CNN and AP have called Michigan for Biden, Fox has called Arizona for Biden and AP have called Wisconsin for Biden.

If all those calls are correct Biden now has 264 EC votes.

Oh and Biden will also likely scoop Nevada.
 
HoverBoarder said:
That's some Banana Republic stuff, and we should stop putting up with it, and start putting the perpetrators of that in jail.
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No. Prison. But the GOP are experts at finding technically legal ways to suppress voting.
 
Fox News, ABC News and NBC News have all called Michigan for Biden.

And Fox cut away from a trump presser to announce it, that'll annoy him...
 
Minoosh said:
If polls are broken so are projections IMO.
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Notsomuch.

Projections are based on *actual votes* not on what a respondent says when asked about voting intentions.

e.g. the demographics of the votes yet to be counted are known, and we know that previously counted votes of those types of demographics were x% red and y% blue in whatever region. So reliable inferences can be made about the likely way those votes will fall. Build in enough of a cushion and you can reliably project results based on partial vote counts.

So polls can be out of whack for all kinds of reasons that don't apply to projections.
 
Wow, enraged Trump fans trying to stop vote counting in MI earlier. Trump is suing to try to get them to stop counting in MI and PA.

https://twitter.com/PattersonNBC/status/1324086177885003778

#BREAKING: Large, animated crush of “stop the count” protestors trying to push their way into TCF hall in #Detroit where ballots are being counted.

They’re being blocked by guards at the door.

Pizza boxes are pushed against the window to obstruct view. It’s tense.
@NBCNews
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Skeptic Tank said:
You guys ask for proof that any sort of voter fraud happens on any kind of large scale. The problem is, by the very nature of the action and the very nature of the problem that is being pointed out, it is inherently very difficult to demonstrate it is occurring in any significant numbers. That's kind of the whole point. What's being pointed out is that the system is not secure in any way.
...
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Well, it took a while, but we finally got to see the admission of the core idiocy of the CT needed here. The fact that it's a CT that can't be proved would be the bug that would cause an actual skeptic to take pause; for the dedicated racist/CTist "skeptic," it's the feature necessary for the faith to take flight.
 
Craig4 said:
That's the ball game.
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I'm a Cubs fan. I never say the ball game is over until the W flag is flying.

But it's looking good.



And, to continue the metaphor, I think this one is going to the instant replay officials, except the "instant" part will take a few weeks.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
You guys ask for proof that any sort of voter fraud happens on any kind of large scale. [...]
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So howabout posting some proof if that is what you are claiming, instead of paragraphs of racist verbiage.

Large scale voter fraud falls in the extraordinary claims category so we're going to need really good evidence.
 
dirtywick said:
If he only gets 57% of the mail ins he’d be underperforming there relative to the mail in results in other states.
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I get what you're saying, but I'm not sure it's reasonable to assume that the distribution of D vs R voters for mail is the same in all states. I think it depends on how easy & prevalent mail-in has been in that state in the past. For example, WA is almost all mail ballot, and has been for ages. So I wouldn't expect that the distribution of mail-ins as yet uncounted would be materially different than what's already been counted.

At this point, I don't know enough about the voter distribution in each area to make any bets on it.
 
Minoosh said:
Sounds like an alcoholic bender. Or something more permanent. I'm sure someone will check soon.
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Or nervous breakdown.

Do people still use that term?

What if.......she lost the ballots and doesn't want to admit it? Things sort of like that have happened. In both of the really close recounts I have followed (Florida 2000 and Al Franken's senate race) missing ballots have been discovered after reports have been made for precints. In Florida, someone left a box in the basement of a church used for a polling place. It was found the next day by a church member. In Minnesota, an election worker left the polling place with six envelopes, but only turned in five of them to be counted. He discovered the last envelope in the trunk of his car.

I heard two different Republicans on the radio today talking about the envelope thing as an example of voter fraud and how Democrats magically find however many ballots they need to make the difference in a close election, but, as you might expect, that's hogwash. I followed it closely, and it was very obvious that it was just a simple mistake. There was a perfectly adequate paper trail to be confident those were, indeed, the missing ballots, and no reason to believe they had been altered.

Anyway, I do hope she's ok, and I would certainly expect that they would be sending troopers to her home to find out what's wrong.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
You guys ask for proof that any sort of voter fraud happens on any kind of large scale. The problem is, by the very nature of the action and the very nature of the problem that is being pointed out, it is inherently very difficult to demonstrate it is occurring in any significant numbers. That's kind of the whole point. What's being pointed out is that the system is not secure in any way.
.....
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Secure against what? Can you point to one case of somebody going to the polls and being told "Oh, this says you already voted?" Voter fraud is a felony. Can you point to one person who has risked prison to impersonate another voter? But it's clear that these some of these voter ID laws -- a relatively new development -- have made it harder for some people to vote. Some states have required a current picture ID at the same time they have closed DMV offices to make it harder to get one. If your ID expired the day before the election, you can't use it, even though it's all you would need to get a new ID. You really haven't looked at the issue.

A majority of states have some voter ID requirement. But only seven have imposed strict current government ID laws. That's what suppresses the vote.
Millions of Americans Lack ID. 11% of U.S. citizens – or more than 21 million Americans – do not have government-issued photo identification.1
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https://www.aclu.org/other/oppose-voter-id-legislation-fact-sheet

Note that most states with a voter ID requirement accept a variety of IDs, and if you don't have one you can usually attest -- under penalty of perjury -- that you are who you say. That sounds more reasonable.
https://www.vote.org/voter-id-laws/

And by the way, a Social Security card or a credit card can't be used as ID.
 
Minoosh said:
More likely than what? Than losing? Or more likely than it was before?

If polls are broken so are projections IMO.
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The projections are now based on how many votes have been counted and where they came from. Probably much more valid.
 
turingtest said:
Well, it took a while, but we finally got to see the admission of the core idiocy of the CT needed here. The fact that it's a CT that can't be proved would be the bug that would cause an actual skeptic to take pause; for the dedicated racist/CTist "skeptic," it's the feature necessary for the faith to take flight.
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Yeah, if you can't find evidence that just proves that the conspiracy is super-clever.
 
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