2020 Presidential Election

[DevilsAdvocate]

Totally ripping off The Beatles
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1322281472561192966?s=21

There is a difference between being famous and being popular. Jack the Ripper and Jeffrey Dahmer were famous.

There was a thread on here a while back on who the most famous person in the world would be. I recall Jackie Chan was up there. And some Bollywood actor I never heard of.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Attendance has been limited to 250 people, and not his paying cronies, either. The PDJT's gotta be so pissed about that, thinking what an "incredible" waste of time that trip will be. I laugh on him. Ha, ha!

I am replaying just to say: Cool ghosty avatar.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I am replaying just to say: Cool ghosty avatar.

I second that. Really creative and well done.

 

[Lurch]

He's the Executive of the Federal Government. He has no authority over the state governments, their policies, their infrastructure.

Again, the United States is not a system of central government divided into administrative regions. It's a union of regional governments with central management of collective interests.

The problems with Flint's water supply fall squarely on the shoulders of the government of Michigan. The President has no power there.

A president that can roll into any state, push aside its elected government, and impose his own policies by federal fiat would be exactly the kind of central government dictatorship we don't want. And way worse than whatever "dictatorship" Trump has actually indulged in.

What does the Prez and Fed do in other emergencies, like hurricanes, for instance? Is a long-standing crisis involving potable water for a whole community not worthy of Federal assistance in the same way damage from a storm is?

How about riots within just a few square blocks of a city, where Trump itches to throw in Federal 'assistance'? He's keen to 'help' there by a busting a few heads and snatching people off the street, but not to provide drinkable water to thousands.

 

[Lurch]

Trump

"Omar. Omar is our secret weapon ... she doesn't love our country, you know? I don't like people that don't love our country."

"There will be no heating in the winter, no air conditioning in the summer, and no electricity"

A cartoon that 'speaks.' Cartoonish jibberish from the erstwhile "Leader of the Free World." Free, alright. Free from sanity.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

I was thinking about this the other day, and your driving example is sort of what I had in mind. Specifically, the adoption of the national 55mph speed limit in the 70s and 80s.



The Federal government didn't have the authority to impose such a limit nationally, but they did have the power to say, "Hey, you can set whatever speed limits you want, but if it's not 55, we'll cut off all Federal funding for highways in your state."



Why couldn't they do the same with voting? "Sure, you can have whatever backward-assed system you want, but if it's not the Model System we just published, we'll cut off all Federal funding for your state."



Any GOP run states that complain will be met with the "We aren't bailing out failing states" line they always like to use.

In the days of earmarking, that would work. Now everything goes out as block grants to states. They do ostensibly have to spend it on the goals defined. So the savvy ones plug their donors into bloated contracts to do "studies" that go on forever and then point at it and say "this is another example of federal government waste!"

 

[The Atheist]

It's probably pretty much over now. That said, they won't announce any results until the polls close in that State.

That's why it's important to get the online party going early - there's not going to be a huge delay before states can give a high percentage of votes.

Join in here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=347621

 

[acbytesla]

That's why it's important to get the online party going early - there's not going to be a huge delay before states can give a high percentage of votes.

Join in here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=347621

Sounds good. But we don't know how each State manages how they count. I think there are states that have already started. At the same time I have read about counties in Pennsylvania that won't begin to count until the afternoon Tuesday. Still States like Texas should have 90 percent of their votes counted 1 minute after the polls close.

 

[Craig4]

That's why it's important to get the online party going early - there's not going to be a huge delay before states can give a high percentage of votes.

Join in here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=347621

For our non-US members, the first results will start coming in around the early morning Zulu hours about 0130. Nobody freak out when the early results favor Trump. The smaller, rural precincts always go to the Republican and they report first. The larger suburban and urban precincts tend to favor Democrats and report their results last.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

For our non-US members, the first results will start coming in around the early morning Zulu hours about 0130. Nobody freak out when the early results favor Trump. The smaller, rural precincts always go to the Republican and they report first. The larger suburban and urban precincts tend to favor Democrats and report their results last.

I will be out freaking until noon, January 20th.*



*Even with a Trump defeat.

 

[acbytesla]

For our non-US members, the first results will start coming in around the early morning Zulu hours about 0130. Nobody freak out when the early results favor Trump. The smaller, rural precincts always go to the Republican and they report first. The larger suburban and urban precincts tend to favor Democrats and report their results last.

Although you may be right, I don't believe you can compare this year to years in the past. How they report may be radically different.

 

[The Atheist]

The smaller, rural precincts always go to the Republican and they report first. The larger suburban and urban precincts tend to favor Democrats and report their results last.

That won't matter this year, because the wide majority of states will count early votes prior to the booths closing, and with the huge early vote, significant percentages will come in straight away.

Here's a handy chart of what happens by state: https://apnews.com/article/how-does-early-voting-work-explained-cdeb4636adb2cbbe2be36d6441c7603e

I believe the idea that the result won't be known on the night is bollocks - Biden will have a huge lead with the vast majority of votes counted and nothing will change.

Whether Trump accepts it on the night is another thing, but even that thicko POS won't be able to deny he's been crushed.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

He probably misheard 'Michelin man'

“He has a name, you know.”*


*Credit to “Life of Brian”!

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Apparently there's a poll that shows the orange ghoul ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

I took off the day of the election and the following day. At the time, I was hedging on being inconsolable (and/or giving consolation to my mixed-race partner).

Then it seemed more like time to just hear clear(er) results.

Now I don't think I took off enough time.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

So Biden just reached a 90% chance of winning at FiveThirtyEight just now. Orange Führer slips to 10%.

Fingers crossed.

 

[alfaniner]

I am replaying just to say: Cool ghosty avatar.

I second that. Really creative and well done.

Thanks! That's one thing I like about my little blue alien guy -- endlessly customizable. I was going to slow down the frame rate but it's only for a day or so, so I can live with it.

 

[theprestige]

So Biden just reached a 90% chance of winning at FiveThirtyEight just now. Orange Führer slips to 10%.

Fingers crossed.

That percentage seems implausibly high. The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. This seems like predicting a number of close elections will break Biden's way.

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

 

[acbytesla]

That percentage seems implausibly high. The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. This seems like predicting a number of close elections will break Biden's way.

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

I don't think its evenly divided at all. Even if Trump wins electorally by virtue of tiny majorities in certain swing states I'll bet you that Trump will lose the popular vote by 5 to 8 million votes.

 

[Dr.Sid]

That percentage seems implausibly high. The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. This seems like predicting a number of close elections will break Biden's way.

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

It's not just a guess, it's system. Sure, it can still be pretty bad system, but it's certainly more than wishful thinking.
Also 10% seems like good chance. But would you want to get diseases with 10% mortality rate ? I don't think so.