2020 Presidential Election

[ChrisBFRPKY]

The "hoax" just seems to have infected Pence and five people in his circle .

It seems Harris also has staff members infected with Covid. If the party running on Covid 19 can't protect their own staff how will they protect me?


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...ter-top-aide-tests-positive-covid-19-n1243518

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!

He's back to "it's their new hoax" from March.

*Reading comprehension*

 

[Mumbles]

*Reading comprehension*

Y'all hae been *really* insistent about what Dolt 45 *didn't* mean by "it's their new hoax". He didn't mean the virus was a hoax. He didn't mean the death rate was a hoax. He doesn't mean the media coverage is a hoax.

I'd ask what you thought he meant, but to be honest, I never really cared, and I'll just take the plain meaning, while assuming that just about everything he says that isn't white supremacist is a lie.

Yes, that includes the crap about how great he is, he's obviously a very insecure person.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

I finally figured out what Trump is doing with COVID 19 and the election. There was a book that came out that said that if you believe something hard enough it will happen. I forgot what it was called. That’s why faucci is a disaster for Trump because he is doubting in Trumps reality bending spell. That’s why he talks like that.

 

[Foggy of the Fogbow]

If he had a pair of ruby slippers I'm sure he could make his wishes come true.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Senator John Cornyn tweeted
@JohnCornyn
The Sec. of State is now reporting that 43.5% of, or 7,376,276, registered voters have voted early. In 2016, 8,969,226 individuals voted. We are 82% of the way to the total turnout in the 2016 General Election with five days of early voting and Election Day left!
@longhornderek

 

[Fast Eddie B]

There was a book that came out that said that if you believe something hard enough it will happen. I forgot what it was called.

The Secret?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?

There are exit pollsters. Could have been one of those. If it was a voter intimidator, they'd ask you before you voted.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.

They represent voter 'enthusiasm' so to speak. They represent a bit of rebellion against Trump's continual ranting about voter fraud and threatening mail in ballots.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's my fear. That the Democrat votes are largely all already in and the numbers are doing to stay steady for the next 7 days and then on Election Day we get a wave on in person Republican voting on actual election day.'

//Standard I hope I'm wrong, I'll be totally psyched if I'm wrong, we don't have to have the "Justify your exact level optimism/pessimism" discussion caveat.//

There are probably going to be very crowded polls on election day. That doesn't mean they are all going to be Trumpers.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Let's assume that their model is reasonably accurate and takes into account "shy" supporters of President Trump - those people who won't say they're going to vote for him, and maybe intend to vote for Joe Biden, but when push comes to shove they find themselves voting the GOP ticket because that's what they do - that's still a range between 2%-8% when the error bars are taken into account.

Around 6 million votes were cast in Pennsylvania last time around, so it could require as few as 120,000 Democratic votes to be thrown out if we're looking at the lower end of the range. The Republicans have firm control of the state legislature so I can easily envisage that happening.

And just how are these ballots going to be singled out?

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

The Secret?

No it came out more than three years ago. I knew a client and coworker who believed if you believed you were going to be rich then it would just happen.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Trump Tweets...

Pennsylvania Ballot “mistakes” made, in my opinion, on purpose by the Democrat Governor, puts Republicans, in particular @SeanParnellUSA, at great risk. Corrupt politics in Pennsylvania must be investigated immediately. By the way, Philadelphia is out of control. @TheJusticeDept

This could be a good sign, IMO, that Trump is looking at losing PA in internal campaign polls.

Regardless of all the pessimists in this thread, Trump cannot possibly get away with challenging the results of all the following states with the closest poll results:

From the Financial Times:

Texas
Florida
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Arizona
Iowa
Nevada
Maine 2nd District​

From the 538 snake:

Texas
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa
Maine 2nd
North Carolina
Florida
Arizona​

They are essentially the same except Nevada barely meets toss-up status by the Financial Times and 538 gives Biden a slightly larger lead.

Trump has to win all these states that have been tossups for months. Biden doesn't need any of them, even Florida.
That doesn't mean we don't all need to vote. The larger the divide the less likely it is that Trump can pull some stunt to get his 3 SCOTUS flunkies to reelect him. But even with that possibility the SCOTUS has recently shown deference to state voter laws. There is no federal standard.

They aren't ruling along party lines, they are ruling in support of established state law.

 

[Aridas]

How dare the news media report on the growing disaster.

Actually, let's take that thought a bit further.

COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!

Well, making virtually the entire pre-election right-wing propaganda strategy illegal would indeed be interesting - especially as they would be inflicting it on themselves. Because it's such an atrocious offense, let's make it retroactive, as well, and immediately charge Trump, Fox, and the rest of the GOP propaganda outlets. Pretty open and shut case.

Not that they actually care about law, though. Consequences, perhaps, sometimes.

I finally figured out what Trump is doing with COVID 19 and the election. There was a book that came out that said that if you believe something hard enough it will happen. I forgot what it was called. That’s why faucci is a disaster for Trump because he is doubting in Trumps reality bending spell. That’s why he talks like that.

The Secret?

The Secret is probably the most famous one along that line, but hardly the only. Of more direct relevance may be Mary Trump's book, which speaks about Donald's toxic positivity, which is along similar lines, but long predates the book The Secret.

No it came out more than three years ago. I knew a client and coworker who believed if you believed you were going to be rich then it would just happen.

On a quick check, the book The Secret came out in 2006.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't know if it's been posted before but, according to this site, registered Democrats account for 49.1% of early votes so far.

And the other half is about 25% GOP and 25% independent.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I note 538 is showing an improvement for Donald in the past couple of days.....

It's been going from 12% chance to 13% chance to 12% chance to 13% chance and so on for most of Oct. Right this minute it's back to 12%.

You can't put that much into something that remains within the margin of error.

 

[Trebuchet]

And just how are these ballots going to be singled out?

By the demographics of certain precincts. The more brown people in a precinct, the more the Republicans will challenge those particular votes.

 

[Aridas]

And just how are these ballots going to be singled out?

Note - I'm not going to specifically defend what you're poking at, but I think that your defense here is based on false premises.

They don't need to be singled out. The goal would be to reduce the vote totals for Democrats by 120,000 more than reductions in Republican votes, to use the numbers there arbitrarily. Such could be done by going after just about anything and anywhere that is more likely to be used by Democrats. Mail in voting, for this year specifically, for example, seems to be much more skewed towards being used by Democrats this year in most states, hence the Republican campaigning and legal attacks against it. That PA naked ballots thing was just one front in that political offensive, not even remotely based in principle.

Personally, though, I'm a bit more concerned about the scenario of the PA GOP trying to sabotage mail in voting counting, then using all the ballots that aren't counted because of their sabotage as an excuse to just appoint their choice of people to the Electoral College - as the Trump campaign has been in discussions with the PA GOP about.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I finally figured out what Trump is doing with COVID 19 and the election. There was a book that came out that said that if you believe something hard enough it will happen. I forgot what it was called. That’s why faucci is a disaster for Trump because he is doubting in Trumps reality bending spell. That’s why he talks like that.

The Secret. Edit: And yeah given the Trump family history with charlatans like charlatans like Dale Carnegie, I wouldn't be too surprised if he's a devotee of Rhonda Byrne

The Secret?

Great minds think alike.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

By the demographics of certain precincts. The more brown people in a precinct, the more the Republicans will challenge those particular votes.

That works if you are talking about limiting in-person polling places.

But by mail, are they going to single out postmark locations?

The GOP pulled it off back in the Gregoire governor's race here in WA by having Republicans challenge King County ballot signatures. Again, not something that is going to work in 8-9 toss-up states where someone would have to create an issue selectively in certain counties. And once again, Trump has to win all 8-9 states, Biden doesn't need any of those.