2020 Presidential Election

[TragicMonkey]

But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.

 

[JoeMorgue]

But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.

That's my fear. That the Democrat votes are largely all already in and the numbers are doing to stay steady for the next 7 days and then on Election Day we get a wave on in person Republican voting on actual election day.'

//Standard I hope I'm wrong, I'll be totally psyched if I'm wrong, we don't have to have the "Justify your exact level optimism/pessimism" discussion caveat.//

 

[The Don]

I like FiveThirtyEight's snake model; right now it says that all Biden really needs is Pennsylvania to get to 270 EC votes, and they're projecting him to win it by 5+ percentage points. If Texas is even truly competitive, it means that a lot of red dominoes have fallen and Biden is taking some or all of Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio.

Let's assume that their model is reasonably accurate and takes into account "shy" supporters of President Trump - those people who won't say they're going to vote for him, and maybe intend to vote for Joe Biden, but when push comes to shove they find themselves voting the GOP ticket because that's what they do - that's still a range between 2%-8% when the error bars are taken into account.

Around 6 million votes were cast in Pennsylvania last time around, so it could require as few as 120,000 Democratic votes to be thrown out if we're looking at the lower end of the range. The Republicans have firm control of the state legislature so I can easily envisage that happening.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Yes, one of the big problems with the US is that they actually have too much democracy, and they insist on doing it all on the same day.

In Canada, The Federal Election is just that - Federal, and nothing but. One vote, for your local MP, that represents the party you support.

Provincial and city or municipality level elections aren't held on the same day, and usually, not even in the same year, as the Federal elections. Plus, we don't have this bizarre notion that things like dogcatchers and medical examiners should be elected positions. We hire professionals for stuff like that.

I wouldn't so much call it too much democracy as democracy in all the wrong places. For example national and state level elections aren't democratic in nature. But then you have elections for positions and jobs which should in no way be put to the public (like local judges, sherrifs, civil service positions &c) and which should be based on merit decided either by a defined employment process or by a group of independent experts.

Pennsylvania Ballot “mistakes” made, in my opinion, on purpose by the Democrat Governor, puts Republicans, in particular @SeanParnellUSA, at great risk. Corrupt politics in Pennsylvania must be investigated immediately. By the way, Philadelphia is out of control. @TheJusticeDept

Does Parnell really fellate that well?

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Well, there's good and bad news, for Pence. The good news is that if Pence gets the 'rona, his God will send an angel to heal him! The bad news is that the angel will be female, and Pence will refuse to be in a room with her, and thus not get cured.

Silly rabbit monkey, angels are "male."

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!

 

[Andy_Ross]

trump Tweets

Thank you! #MAGA

The New York Post endorses President Donald J. Trump for re-election
We can return to the explosive job creation, rising wages and general prosperity we had before the pandemic. We can have economic freedom and opportunity, and resist cancel culture and censorship. We
nypost.com

 

[timhau]

Let's assume that their model is reasonably accurate and takes into account "shy" supporters of President Trump

I'm sure they take them into account to the degree needed, since there is no evidence they ever existed.

 

[MRC_Hans]

I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?

This is truly strange for me. Where I am you just DON'T ask that of people, except if you are some exit poll person, but then you would show credentials of some kind.

Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.

Hans

 

[Trebuchet]

Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!

He's back to "it's their new hoax" from March.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

This is truly strange for me. Where I am you just DON'T ask that of people, except if you are some exit poll person, but then you would show credentials of some kind.

Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.

Hans

Actually it was a close vote and I got stopped by people canvassing the area making sure people got to the polls. Was supporters for a left wing candidate in a local election. I voted for him but he lost anyway

 

[SezMe]

But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.

I don't think so. Early votes are not counted until election day. What you're seeing now are the results of late polls. I doubt very much polling will be done in the last week; why bother.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I don't think so. Early votes are not counted until election day.

That depends entirely on the state. Florida for instance has already been counting votes for a week while Pennsylvania can't even so much as pretty much make eye contact with the stacks of ballots until election day.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/9262...ts-be-counted-see-states-processing-timelines

 

[SezMe]

Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.

Same as USA - well, the parts I inhabit. But it's generally true. Asking how someone voted is a no-no.

 

[dudalb]

My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.

"I'm a Brother , a Brother, a Brother am I
Or so it appeals to the casual eye
TV wants blacks, but it does not want them real;
so Oreos like us get a hell of a deal"

Anybody else remember The Brothers Brothers from "In Living Color?'

Not as popular as Homey the Clown and Fire Marshall Bill but still pretty funny,and a biting comment on how TV treats BLacks.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

He's back to "it's their new hoax" from March.

The "hoax" just seems to have infected Pence and five people in his circle .

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Trump Tweets

We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election. COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!
Three BIG Rallies today. Heading to Pennsylvania. I have plenty to say about the dishonesty of the Media and Sleepy Joe. A terrible coverup is happening in our Country!!!

We are winning big on the voting numbers. Get out and Vote. Bigger than 2016!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

How dare the news media report on the growing disaster.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump just now in PA on the potential of winner declared after Nov 3: "We'll end up in the Supreme Court..they want to drag it out..we are in lots of court having to do with this & having to do with many states, about 5..we're not going to let this election be taken away from us"

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.

You really should get out more.

 

[Mumbles]

In most jurisdictions, poll watchers aren't allowed to interact with the voter. I'm sure that in all jurisdictions, no one at the polling place is allowed to ask you that question. Exit pollsters can ask you that after you've left the polling place, but in the polling place, it's a secret ballot.

Yep. That's part of the training that poll watchers typically receive. It's usually a couple of people just to be sure nothing weird is happening with the judges and other volunteers.

In MD, the setup is typically one person to check you in, a second person to walk you over to a particular booth (was electronic here for, like 1-2 elections, we're back to paper ballots now), and a third to scan in the vote (by card when it was electronic, now using a Scantron-esque contraption).Each one is only allowed particular interactions, and nobody can ask who or what you're voting for.

And these are at actually voting locations - the "poll watchers" in this case wouldn't actually watch any polls, just people calling help hotlines, showing up to register to vote, and so forth. It's basically his goons looking to intimidate the workers.