Only if 12% is approximately zero
AUIU those forecasts do not take into account any Republican efforts to change the results of the election after the fact.
They can only do that in closely contested races. And yes for all intents and purposes 12% is approximately zero.
Yes he has a very enthusiastic core, and they seem to comprise 40% of the US electorate if his poll numbers an approval numbers are anything to go by.
No. His enthusiastic core is a subset (and I'd venture a pretty small subset) of the 40ish% of republican voters. See groups like the Lincoln Project (LP)(mostly Republicans who cannot stand Trump).
Reading places like Twitter and Reddit I have seen many posts from republicans who claim they voted early and voted Biden "first time ever voting Democrat" - there were vanishingly few of those posts in 2016 that I recall.
There are also an unknown number of people who may not have any love for President Trump but would rather die in a ditch than vote Democrat. Whether these people stay at home or hold their noses and vote for President Trump may be crucial to this election, particularly in swing states.
True, but there are also a fair number of Republicans voting for Biden (see the former RNC chair and LP for reasons as to why that is happening) we don't know how many of those there are - they probably cancel out. Also people are WAY more motivated to vote this time around. In 2016 people were suggesting this was the best ever time to vote 3rd party because Clinton was a shoe in. Today that's not happening.
It's almost unthinkable that President Trump will win the popular vote but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he may win the electoral college.
It's not out of the realms of possibility. It is so close in practical terms that we can say it's basically zero.
For Trump to win he has to crush Biden in the debate, he has to have some big news on the COVID front that shows him to be doing a great job, Biden has to make the most legendary of gaffes... it's just not likely.
Trumps "October Surprise" effort is backfiring, his debates to date have been abysmal, his rallies are losing him votes. He's cooked.
Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016
this isn't 2016.
the polls were really swingy back then. Trump was an unknown outsider and was riding the mystique of being a "great businessman" off the back of the Apprentice. He offered people simple solutions to complex problems. So lots of people signed on with that.
Now 4 years later he has a record to be judged on.
Has he saved coal mining jobs? Has he helped manufacturing jobs? Has he helped Joe public improve their lot?
No, no and no. His simple solutions were a con and enough of the people he conned last time around have seen enough to vote him out.
That's the biggest difference this time around.
Yes he'll always have his base, the monster raving teapot wingnuts who buy into QAnon or whatever crackpot theories are all the rage. He'll get the votes of the very fine racists, the Proud Boys et al. But that's not enough.
538 have the Democrats at a 70% chance to win the presidency the house AND the senate.
That was crazy talk a year ago.
The GOP are going down in flaming flames and they can't Gerrymander or claim voting fraud or otherwise steal this one, the numbers for Biden are too big.
Hell I think there's a decent chance Texas will flip blue...
