2020 Presidential Election

[Mader Levap]

Here's a scientifically proven equation:

"write-over" = "write-once-only" + $$$$$$$$

No need for that. You ever heard about writing over paper ballot? No, actual shenanigans are elsewhere. Besides, system like "write-once-only" assumes it would simply cost too much to overwrite sufficient amount of results to affect election.

Just do electronic equivalent of ballot stuffing. Though if done right, it would require like gazilion years to forge cryptographic signs for all those votes.

After a few demographic type questions were answered the lady calling finally got to the meat of the matter and reason for the call. When asked which party I was planning to support in the upcoming election I replied "The Democrats and specifically Joe Biden" I went on to say "Everyone in this household will vote for Biden" and sure enough that seemed to end the survey questions. Curiously a few days later I received a fund raiser call from Amy McGrath's campaign. (She's a Democrat candidate running for Senate against Mitch McConnell here in KY.) This lady was very nice too and we talked for about an hour. Yet even though I assured her I had already made the maximum allowed private campaign contribution, I neglected to inform her it went to Mitch McConnell.

You are making it up. Plothole in your story is marked in yellow.

Now just so you know in reality I'd rather eat a live slug than vote for Biden and I'll be voting for Donald Trump as well. But the folks that call me probably have it written down somewhere that they found another vote for their side.........This is likely not an isolated incident.

You seem to not be aware statisticians are dealing with that kind of noise all the time. Someone also would wonder how much impact actually these kind of outliers have.

This is likely not an isolated incident.

Somehow I very, very doubt there is gigantic mass of Trump supporters lying in polls about their preferences. Nice insinuation though.

I will say for you what you actually wanted to say in that tall tale. "Polls are lying because I don't like what they say REEEE". Well, someone is lying here for sure.

 

[Armitage72]

Another reason to get out and vote: Trump says he may leave the country if he loses.


More likely, we can replace "leave the country" with "flee to a country without an extradition treaty to avoid prosecution".

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I'm sure Putin would welcome keeping a former US President around as a pet.

 

[Trebuchet]

The best case scenario for Russia is for Trump to lose and then contest the results.

And that is looking extremely likely. Contesting the results is a certainty if he loses. And he'll even complain about them if he wins, just as in 2016.

 

[slyjoe]

And that is looking extremely likely. Contesting the results is a certainty if he loses. And he'll even complain about them if he wins, just as in 2016.

Didn't he already put Rudy in charge of contesting the election via the courts?

 

[Meadmaker]

Interesting post. I must say it is very well thought out. But relying on the double digit polls may be a bit of a problem. There's a fly in the ointment of polling. I also received a call and was asked to participate in a telephonic poll. Since I'm retired I have plenty of time to talk with pollsters and telemarketers, fundraisers etc. Most people find these kinds of calls annoying but I enjoy them. After a few demographic type questions were answered the lady calling finally got to the meat of the matter and reason for the call. When asked which party I was planning to support in the upcoming election I replied "The Democrats and specifically Joe Biden" I went on to say "Everyone in this household will vote for Biden" and sure enough that seemed to end the survey questions. Curiously a few days later I received a fund raiser call from Amy McGrath's campaign. (She's a Democrat candidate running for Senate against Mitch McConnell here in KY.) This lady was very nice too and we talked for about an hour. Yet even though I assured her I had already made the maximum allowed private campaign contribution, I neglected to inform her it went to Mitch McConnell.

Now just so you know in reality I'd rather eat a live slug than vote for Biden and I'll be voting for Donald Trump as well. But the folks that call me probably have it written down somewhere that they found another vote for their side.........This is likely not an isolated incident.

You are absolutely right. People lie to pollsters. People refuse to talk to pollsters, and again, the willingness to talk to a pollster or tell the truth to a pollster is not equal among Democrats and Republicans. This was a major element in 2016 polls that showed Clinton with a huge lead over Trump. Sometimes they called it the "shy Trump voter", people afraid to admit they were voting for Trump because Hillary supporters were so adamantly against Trump, but there were other reasons as well, and everything that made people not talk to poll takers or lie to them has only gotten worse in the last four years.

 

[Meadmaker]

What they would then like to do is challenge the results in the courts using this evidence to have millions of absentee, early and minority district ballots thrown out. They'll be able to do this in states with GOP stacked courts and GOP legislatures. They won't be able to do it in states without but that's also OK, they can they scream about how unfair that is AND claim that those states must have even greater levels of election fraud than that found in friendly states.

I'm no longer so worried about President Trump winning the election. I do have significant concerns about the election result standing. If it's close IMO then the GOP will be able to nudge it in their favour (and remember, if papers are excluded that also swings down-ballot races their way). If it's a Biden landslide then they'll have to bludgeon it in their favour.

(Emphasis added)

I agree except for the highlighted.

I don't think American politics is so far gone that a blatant attempt to throw out ballots will succeed. I may be naive, but I think that's where most people will draw the line.

What will happen is that they will attempt to use the flimsiest of excuses to disqualify ballots that do not conform absolutely to the letter of the law. (Signature mismatches and the like) However, I think even those methods have their limits.

I think if it is clear and obvious that the election ought to, by rights, go to Biden, a GOP judge won't go along with a blatant attempt at stealing it. A nudge, maybe, but no more than that.

And if I'm wrong, the country is lost.



However, the above is based on the idea of a Biden victory. I am not confident that is assured. If I were to place a bet, I would place it on Biden, but I wouldn't give long odds.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There's an argument to be said for that, too.

You probably remember that was the argument for giving 18-20 yr olds the right to vote in this country.

 

[acbytesla]

Let's imagine a scenario. I'll use numbers that would make me happy, but are within the possible results that I've been reading.

Donald Trump is incredibly effective at getting out the vote - for Biden. People flock to the polls in record numbers to vote against Trump. Imagine 150 million votes. I've seen that number projected, so it's not ridiculous. When all the votes are counted, Biden wins by 55% to 45%. 10 points. Actually on the low side of current polls, some of which project up to a 17 point lead.

And why are people motivated to vote against Trump, much more than in 2016? Covid 19. But, that means the people who hate him are more likely to vote by absentee ballot or some other means than interacting with lots of people on election day. Let's imagine that 45% of Democrats vote before election day. 22% or Republicans vote before election day. That would be 52 million total votes before election day. We already have over 20 million early votes, so 50 million before November 3 seems realistic.

On election day, the remaining voters show up at the polls. There are 45.4 million Democrats voting on election day, and 52.7 million Republicans. If you base your exit poll solely on people leaving the polling place, you would get 46.4% for Biden, 53.7% for Trump. If the networks base projections on those numbers, they would have Trump declared the winner early in the evening, only to discover that the real numbers were lopsided the other way. (And Trump would declare massive vote fraud, because roundoff error and the wrong guy won.)

Suppose, instead, that you knew there would be a problem, so you did exit polls of early voters as well. Since you don't know how to do it, you will select 1000 early voters, and 1000 election day voters. You would find that among early voters, 710 voted for Biden, and 290 for Trump. On election day, 463 for Biden, and 537 for Trump. Adding everything up, 1173 for Biden, or 58%. (Again, inconsistent rounding. Close enough) So, Biden is significantly overestimated, because election day and early ballots are give equal weight.

To actually get it right, you would have to have a good estimate of how many will vote early versus on election day, and be confident that you managed to sample them correctly. It's a huge problem for an estimator.

States where one team clearly wins will still be easy to call, but there will be a lot more uncertainty in the polling, and counting the ballots will be slower, so the swing states will be harder to estimate, and so will take a long time.

My personal hope is that Texas and Georgia are difficult to call, and we'll have to wait until Wednesday to find out if it's an electoral victory, or an electoral landslide.

Teo things. Again one, you're making things too difficult. And two, your position is total speculation. Professional pollsters begin with a very good idea of who they need to sample simply by where people live. They know that in the last 3 Presidential elections how a precinct voted. They know if it broke 70/30 or 90/10. Whether you voted by mail or in person is pretty much irrelevant. As a pollster, I'm just trying to get say fifty voter responses in a precinct maybe evenly divided male/female and maybe say another demographic or two. It is never going to be perfect. I simply do not see how someone voted as skewing the result too much.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

SLEEPY JOE BIDEN IS PROPOSING THE BIGGEST TAX HIKE IN OUR COUNTRY’S HISTORY! CAN ANYBODY REALLY VOTE FOR THIS?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Retweeted

Melissa Tate
@TheRightMelissa
We are in the home stretch. Biden is getting Billions$ from Soros & others. President Trump relies on small donations from the grass roots for his campaign. He has put everything on the line for us so let’s make a final push & donate. We are winning!

 

[Andy_Ross]

Ronna McDaniel tweeted

@GOPChairwoman
Joe Biden promised on Day 1 to raise taxes on 82% of Americans...in the middle of an economic recovery.

We cannot afford Biden!

 

[Darat]

I'm sure Putin would welcome keeping a former US President around as a pet.

Doubt it, unlike some ex-presidents Trump has zero value out of office.

 

[Meadmaker]

Teo things. Again one, you're making things too difficult.

Actually, I'm oversimplifying.

However,

And two, your position is total speculation. Professional pollsters begin with a very good idea of who they need to sample simply by where people live. They know that in the last 3 Presidential elections how a precinct voted. They know if it broke 70/30 or 90/10. Whether you voted by mail or in person is pretty much irrelevant.

They do in fact know these things, and they use that information in their selections. By choosing people from specific precincts, they are using those mathematical models, but if the models are wrong, their results will be wrong.

We'll see on election night for sure.

 

[sackett]

Doubt it, unlike some ex-presidents Trump has zero value out of office.

Oh yeah? What if Putin threatened to send him back?

 

[Bob001]

....
Now just so you know in reality I'd rather eat a live slug than vote for Biden and I'll be voting for Donald Trump as well.
....

Perhaps you'd like to answer this columnist's question:

Why won’t Trump supporters admit they’ve been conned?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...nt-trump-supporters-admit-theyve-been-conned/

 

[Bob001]

Doubt it, unlike some ex-presidents Trump has zero value out of office.

He'll be busy fighting criminal and civil prosecutions at the state and federal level.

 

[Craig4]

Trump Retweeted

Melissa Tate
@TheRightMelissa
We are in the home stretch. Biden is getting Billions$ from Soros & others. President Trump relies on small donations from the grass roots for his campaign. He has put everything on the line for us so let’s make a final push & donate. We are winning!

Biden also got about $550 from me over the last few months. Unfortunately, I missed the live Star Trek web event that donors got invited to. But, if I get to watch Trump and his supporters get crushed and driven before me and listen to the lamentations of their women, that will be entertainment enough for me.

 

[acbytesla]

Actually, I'm oversimplifying.

However,

They do in fact know these things, and they use that information in their selections. By choosing people from specific precincts, they are using those mathematical models, but if the models are wrong, their results will be wrong.

We'll see on election night for sure.

I thought we were discussing exit polls?

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Perhaps you'd like to answer this columnist's question:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...nt-trump-supporters-admit-theyve-been-conned/

I'm unable to read the Wapo piece as I'm not a subscriber, and likely never will be.

However, from the title I can assume it's an opinion piece about why the US voter should feel as they have been conned by President Trump. The reply to this question is simple in my case, he's made good on every promise that concerned me in 2016. The wall is going up, I've seen it. We pulled out of the Iran deal. Taxes were lowered which has meant more money in my pocket. Drug prices, specifically insulin, are much lower than before, again more money in my pocket. We are now energy independent. My gasoline is less than $2.00 per gallon and I even filled up a few times this year at $0.99/gal. He's cleaning out the swamp in DC though it seems very deep and still needs more work. No new wars, and this was a biggie for me. But the most important reason I will vote for Trump again is because he's not a politician, he's a businessman. He has added money to my pocket and yours too if you're an American whether you like him or not. I ask myself the Reagan question when considering a President's performance: "Am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" The answer for me is "Yes definitely." How about you? Are you better off than you were?