2020 Presidential Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

One of my main concerns is what Putin has up his sleeve. I just don't beleive Vlad the Impaler is going to let his stooge in the White House go down without trying something.

That Giuliani nonsense was pretty low hanging fruit.

They are targeting Hispanics with all sorts of misinformation aimed at getting them to stay home, that there's no difference between Biden and Trump. It's a rerun of the 2016 game plan micro-targeting blacks.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I diagree. I question if 16 years old are mature enough to be intelligent voters. At times I think lowering the age to 18 was a mistake for the same reason.

Then 18 yr olds shouldn't be sent to war.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There are always plenty of volunteers to operate polling stations in the UK and we have a lot of them, one for around every 1000 voters.

When I was a kid, my parents had a polling station in our living room.

 

[SezMe]

Internal polling is polling conducted by the campaign itself, as opposed to the private companies that are published for public consumption.

Not necessarily. "Internal" polls could be conducted by an outside firm under a proprietary contract.

 

[xjx388]

That Giuliani nonsense was pretty low hanging fruit.

They are targeting Hispanics with all sorts of misinformation aimed at getting them to stay home, that there's no difference between Biden and Trump. It's a rerun of the 2016 game plan micro-targeting blacks.

I’m interested in what you’ve seen targeting Hispanics. I am Hispanic and I’m pretty active in social media. I have seen nothing that would encourage me to stay home.

 

[SezMe]

....
They can't have pollsters camped out by mailboxes asking people, "Hey, is that a ballot?"

They could certainly stand next to ballot drop off locations in order to develop an exit poll of sorts. Of course, that would also be a biased sample.

 

[acbytesla]

They could certainly stand next to ballot drop off locations in order to develop an exit poll of sorts. Of course, that would also be a biased sample.

Why would it be a biased sample?

 

[SezMe]

Biden looks like he's topped out in all the swing states. His increases that started when Trump got sick seemed to have stopped and stayed static. He's hovering around 4.1-4.5 in Florida and staying within half a percent in all the other swing states. That's probably just the top of the market for Democrats in those states. The way he's staying static though probably means that there just aren't undecided voters anymore.

It also suggests those who have made up their mind are not changing as Nov. 3 approaches.

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Voter ID is also a "solution" for which there is little evidence of a problem - but where the side effects are several orders of magnitude worse.

In order to prevent, possibly, one or two illegal votes being cast (and there's little evidence of even that or that Voter ID would prevent it), hundreds of thousands of people are deprived of their legitimate right to vote.

I'm not sure where you are but here in the US I don't know anyone under the age of 16 that does not have an ID. Everyone has an ID unless they avoid getting one for some reason? Driver's license, Official ID etc.

An ID is required to buy cigarettes or alcohol. Perhaps we should toss those requirements as well so we don't deprive hundreds of thousands of people from obtaining cigarettes and beer?

 

[SezMe]

I wonder about fundamental difference between voting by computer and voting on paper. Making "write-once-only" data storage would be certainly good first step.

But I guess there is value in inherently slower nature of paper ballot.

Here's a scientifically proven equation:

"write-over" = "write-once-only" + $$$$$$$$

 

[acbytesla]

I'm not sure where you are but here in the US I don't know anyone under the age of 16 that does not have an ID. Everyone has an ID unless they avoid getting one for some reason? Driver's license, Official ID etc.

An ID is required to buy cigarettes or alcohol. Perhaps we should toss those requirements as well so we don't deprive hundreds of thousands of people from obtaining cigarettes and beer?

Come with me Chris. I can show you hundreds of people without ID. You live inside a bubble.

 

[SezMe]

Wait. It isn't?

Obviously, the "first act of voting" isn't, but the voting thing was drilled into our heads over and over again, from grade school through high school. Only a few people could actually vote, especially in the fall general elections, but I would say that the concept of democracy and the obligation to vote were things that were front and center of our Civics curriculum. Surely that hasn't changed, has it?


(We called it "Civics" class in Illinois. Other places called it "Government" class.)

I went to high school in Danville, Illinois. We didn't have a civics class - even as an elective - and I certainly didn't get any info about voting there. We did, however, have a school-wide assembly to teach us how to use this new-fangled thing called "dialing".

 

[turingtest]

I'm not sure where you are but here in the US I don't know anyone under the age of 16 that does not have an ID. Everyone has an ID unless they avoid getting one for some reason? Driver's license, Official ID etc.

An ID is required to buy cigarettes or alcohol. Perhaps we should toss those requirements as well so we don't deprive hundreds of thousands of people from obtaining cigarettes and beer?

Of all the stupid arguments for voter ID, this one may be the stupidest. Here's a hint- go back and re-read The Don's post, paying especial attention to the very first thing he said in it. Then ask yourself- if there were no ID (for age) requirements to buy alcohol/tobacco, would there be a problem requiring a solution? I don't know about you, but I sure as hell tried to buy beer before I turned 18 (which was the legal age for beer at the time); the only "bad" side effect is that teenagers with cars have a harder time getting drunk. And then ask yourself (since it's your analogy, after all) if you have any evidence of a similar, prevalent problem that needs the same solution with voting.

 

[SezMe]

Why would it be a biased sample?

Because it would collect votes only from the geographic area where it is sited. I think that is generally a good assumption. Of course, if one were located at a stop light on a freeway on- or off-ramp, that would not be a good assumption.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Russia is certain to flood social media with tales of massive voter fraud.

 

[acbytesla]

Because it would collect votes only from the geographic area where it is sited. I think that is generally a good assumption. Of course, if one were located at a stop light on a freeway on- or off-ramp, that would not be a good assumption.

You're right. If you only went to one drop box and surveyed a specific segment of society.

But you can target voters according to where they actually live as opposed to simply the location of the drop box. I worked for a pollster during college. We asked questions at the beginning to ensure we had a representative sample. Probably the first question you might ask is where does the voter live? And then you would only count say 5 in one precinct and 3 in another and so on.

 

[jrhowell]

Russia is certain to flood social media with tales of massive voter fraud.

The best case scenario for Russia is for Trump to lose and then contest the results.

 

[Segnosaur]

I'm not sure where you are but here in the US I don't know anyone under the age of 16 that does not have an ID. Everyone has an ID unless they avoid getting one for some reason? Driver's license, Official ID etc.

The fact that you don't know anyone without an ID is more a factor of who you have been associating.

For example, there are a lot of older low income (minorities) who do not have a government ID that could be used for voting...
- Many older people were born at home.... so no birth certificate (which is often needed to get other forms of ID.)
- Low income means they cannot travel, so no passport
- No vehicle, so no driver's license

Even if the government can provide an ID for free, the person may have to take time off work to go to whatever government office, which if you are on an hourly wage, you may find detrimental financially. (Not to mention the fact that even a 'free' photo ID may require supporting documents, such as a birth certificate, which may not be available.)

Compounding the problem is that it is a greater problem for some demographic groups than others. Supposedly 8% of U.S. citizens of voting age lack photo ID, whereas 25% of african American voters do.

See: ACLU

An ID is required to buy cigarettes or alcohol. Perhaps we should toss those requirements as well so we don't deprive hundreds of thousands of people from obtaining cigarettes and beer?

Ummm... first of all, not everybody smokes or drinks.

Secondly, not everyone needs photo ID to buy cigarettes or alcohol, you only need it if you LOOK close to the age of majority. If you are a senior citizen going to buy wine at the local shop, I doubt you will need to provide ID.

 

[Meadmaker]

Why would it be a biased sample?

Because how people vote, in person on election day, using a ballot drop box, voting by mail, or voting early in person, are not uniform across Democrats and Republicans. That's what will make this so challenging this year. Since all this polling and prediction began, the vast majority of people voted in person on election day. Now, there are lots of ways to vote, but partisans are not equally likely to vote in one way. More Democrats are voting early by various means, so if you ask those people, your poll skews Democratic. If you wait until election day, your poll skews Republican.

The professionals will be making models to try and figure out just how many of each type of voter they ought to ask in order to get the right sample, but that shows just how difficult it is. The "poll" is as good as the pollsters' estimates.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

The best case scenario for Russia is for Trump to lose and then contest the results.

Second best.
Trump would be a lame duck president.