2020 Presidential Election

[Regnad Kcin]

"I'm just saying when I went to bed last night there were 8 Klondike Bars still in the freezer and this morning there were only 7 and I'm pretty sure Nancy Pelosi ate one of my Klondike Bars also I left my favorite shirt over the back of the chair and it's not there anymore..."

*Gasp!*

Shirtgate!

 

[Regnad Kcin]

538 dropped Trump down to a 16 in 100 scenarios chance.

Still too high!

 

[JoeMorgue]

Still too high!

Again we went through this in 2016 where half the Liberal Population of this board spent the bulk of their time screaming at 538 for being too "bullish" on Trump.

They are right to temper their expectations.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Again we went through this in 2016 where half the Liberal Population of this board spent the bulk of their time screaming at 538 for being too "bullish" on Trump.

They are right to temper their expectations.

I don't think they mean FiveThirtyEight is wrong, just that Trump doesn't deserve even those 16%.
(Correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[dudalb]

ooooof.

That combined with 4 million people already having cast a vote does not bode well for Trump.

Im the breakdown oif the pools the bad news for Trump is the Independents/Swing voters are moving heavily in Biden's lelection. And they will decide this vote.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I don't think they mean FiveThirtyEight is wrong, just that Trump doesn't deserve even those 16%.
(Correct me if I'm wrong)

~40 to ~45% of the United States Voting Population is still going to walk into a booth and go "Yep Donald Trump, that guy, he should be President."

16% if just fine as a predictive model.

 

[Stacyhs]

I'm just waiting for the "SPIDERS! DEMOCRAT SPIDERS ARE EATING THE FLESH UNDER MY SKIN!!' PELOSI IS THE CAUSE OF THE SPIDERS! #PelosiSpiders #Democratspiders" Tweet.

Trump Tweets

Thank you Heather!
Quote Tweet

Heather @hrenee80 I would wade though a sea of COVID infested water to vote for President Trump on November 3rd.

Or, you could just go have lunch with Donald in the WH today. Be sure to shake his hand. Vigorously. Several times.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

ooooof.

That combined with 4 million people already having cast a vote does not bode well for Trump.

Also of note on the same page:

The Trump re-election campaign has slashed television ad spending in key Midwest states, BuzzFeed News reports. President Trump has been absent from local airwaves in Iowa and Ohio, and the campaign has reportedly given up at least $2 million worth of reservations in Michigan and Wisconsin since early September, while also reducing its projected fall TV budget in Minnesota by $5 million.

Because all of those states are so important to the upcoming presidential election, Ohio-based Republican ad maker Nicholas Everhart told BuzzFeed "there's no reason why [Trump] would not be wanting to be on the air in those states, particularly Ohio,"

 

[Safe-Keeper]

~40 to ~45% of the United States Voting Population is still going to walk into a booth and go "Yep Donald Trump, that guy, he should be President."

16% if just fine as a predictive model.

Yes, I know there are that many in reality and that 16% is accurate. I'm saying there shouldn't be, and it shouldn't be .

 

[Andy_Ross]

One piece of news from that deeply bizarre proof of life video Trump just posted is that he’s now moved the goalposts for a vaccine to after the election.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

FiveThirtyEight: 15/84. I don't know how accurate the map representation on top of the page is, but either way it shows only three example outcomes with a Trump victory now. And yes, of course Trump could respond to this by just flipping the table and declaring victory. But barring some major disaster for Biden, this looks bigly promising.

It's a strange situation for sure. The 70+ and obese president sick with a respiratory disease along with much of his inner circle, the incumbent's campaign apparently running out of money, cutting TV ads strongly and badly... it'll be interesting to see how the Trump administration stumbles through the next weeks. Or for that matter, how many of them will perish.

It's also almost uncanny how Trump's fanatic support might be wavering a little, judging by the number of Republicans who don't approve of his recent Covid handling. I don't think they're about to drop him, but I've mostly seen near-fanatical support for him, no matter what he did and said. Come to think of it, the way all the Trump supporters on this forum no longer seem to identify as such, instead going "no, I totally do not support or care about Trump, I don't even like him, I just like to spend all my time here defending him" is new, too, I think. Usually they have just disappeared for a while when things got ugly, like after the midterms.

 

[Craig4]

Still too high!

Biden jumped ahead over a full point today in Florida and made gains in Arizona. That McSally person's poor showing last night in the Senatorial debate probably won't help her or Trump. The fates of both are linked. McSally also said she was sickened by Trump's remarks about McCain. That's too little too late for Kelly supporters and will likely turn off her Trumptrash supporters.

 

[Craig4]

Trump Tweets

Thank you Heather!
Quote Tweet

Heather
@hrenee80
I would wade though a sea of COVID infested water to vote for President Trump on November 3rd.

I hope she lives in a swing state.

 

[varwoche]

Still too high!

Their algorithm, as best I understand, takes into account how many days until election day, and the historical likelihood things will change. I do not think it takes into account that a candidate is free falling and stark raving mad.

 

[Craig4]

Also of note on the same page:

I'm curious where that money goes, if anywhere. If it goes to shore up Texas and to reverse losses in Florida, Trump is probably doomed. Trump has no electoral map without Florida but winning Florida isn't enough. He would still need Ohio and Pennsylvania to be competitive. A loss of Texas (which I think is possible but not likely) would mean it's all over no matter what else happened.

It could just be that Trump is out of money. He's been self dealing so much to his own properties and his staff have been funneling money to themselves so, there may not be enough left to run the campaign.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Or, you could just go have lunch with Donald in the WH today. Be sure to shake his hand. Vigorously. Several times.

This lady needs to understand that Trump is ensuring that she does have to wade through a sea of Covid.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

Biden supports Cory Booker’s Bill that will force low income housing in the Suburbs, which will lower property values and bring crime to your neighborhoods. If Dems win, GOODBYE SUBURBS!

 

[Trebuchet]

ooooof.

That combined with 4 million people already having cast a vote does not bode well for Trump.

SCROTUS will throw all those votes out.

 

[Andy_Ross]

e A King Tweeted
@BerniceKing
I find President Trump’s use of my father’s image in his political ad beyond insulting and not reflective of #MLK’s commitment to creating the #BelovedCommunity. My father should not be used in ways strongly misaligned with his vision and values, @realDonaldTrump.

My father was working for an America with leaders who have answered the call to conscience and compassionate action. He said, “We need leaders not in love with money but in love with justice. Not in love with publicity but in love with humanity...”

“...Leaders who can subject their particular egos to the pressing urgencies of the great cause of freedom…a time like this demands great leaders.”

 

[Andy_Ross]

CNN

In an unprecedented move, the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine has condemned the Trump administration for its response to the Covid-19 pandemic — and calling for the current US leadership to be voted out of office