Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 24

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Safe-Keeper said:
Trump's rating is inexplicably climbing again, it's all the way up to 41.9% now according to 538. I know it probably means absolutely nothing that his ratings go up or down by a single percentage point, and so I probably shouldn't obsess over his ratings as much as I do, but what can one do.
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I took a look at the stats of other Presidents, and what I noticed is that as they get closer to the end of their term their approval starts to rise if they are suffering in the approval department. It happened to W in 2004 and 2008, Bush I had a rise about this time despite a serious crash in 1992, Obama started to rise out of being below 50% about this time in 2012. Presidents that were popular (Reagan, Clinton) late in their term seem to have this effect as well but it is harder to notice.

There are other factors that don't make this concrete, W's approval was rising earlier in 2004 than most others, while Obama's seem to have kicked in a bit later.

But there does seem to be some effect that makes people approve of a sitting President late in their term. Maybe circling the wagons or sympathy for someone having taken almost 4 years of knocks. Trump's (so far) approval boost seems to be pretty small compared to the rises other term ending Presidents received.
 
I see Trump cannot stop cheating people.

Trump claimed the resorts — Trump International Golf Links Aberdeen and Trump Turnberry, both in Scotland, and Trump Doonbeg in Ireland — brought in a total of about $179 million in revenue on U.S. documents where he is supposed to list his personal income. Records in the United Kingdom and Ireland indicate the resorts‘ revenues were millions of dollars less — about $152 million — and show they actually lost $77 million after accounting for expenses.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/08/11/trump-golf-resorts-scrutiny-393223
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This is the president of the United States. The man cannot play anything straight.
 
Segnosaur said:
At the risk of being overly optimistic...

The nut bags (tea partiers, evangelicals, Qanon) are allowed into the mainstream because Republican dirty tactics (voter suppression, foreign interference, etc) have allowed them to maintain power.

As voter demographics shift (e.g. minorities making up a higher portion of the population, more acceptance of LGBTQ rights, etc) those dirty tactics will no longer be enough to cling to power. The republican party will be forced to marginalize the nutcases and appeal to a wider voter base if they ever hope to regain power.
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I think that was more like what I was trying to say above.

I suspect the smarter brains at the top of the GOP will keep these Q-nuts on board only as useful idiots for the numbers, and as expendable shields if needs be. Meanwhile, they will do what they are told. And that could well be "Stay at home by the phone; talk to nobody; vote like we tell you".
 
Norman Alexander said:
I suspect the smarter brains at the top of the GOP will keep these Q-nuts on board only as useful idiots for the numbers, and as expendable shields if needs be. Meanwhile, they will do what they are told.
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I'm sure they thought the exact same about one Donald J. Trump about 4 and a half years or so back.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I'm sure they thought the exact same about one Donald J. Trump about 4 and a half years or so back.
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True. I didn't say it was a winning strategy. Just that it will be THE operative strategy for the Q-nuts.

A better approach for the GOP would be to ensure these head-cases get nowhere near even a sniff of getting into Congress as GOP candidates. Instead, pick nice, warm, lovable, aw-shucks folks with brains who can have the game-plan explained to them without blabbing it out loud and getting it wrong.
 
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Stacyhs said:
This could be real put out by Trump supporters or Russian bots. Either way, there are people out there stupid enough to believe it but they're already Trumpers anyway.
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In the text, American is not capitalized. President and Presidency are capitalized.

Has anyone checked if DJT wrote this.
 
The Don said:
<snip of The Don' reasoning>
I see no reason for the GOP to even consider fundamentally changing track and try to appeal to anyone other than their current and new core for 20+ years which means that it's unlikely to actually happen in the 30-40 years I'm likely to be around.
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Or it could be that people such as the Republicans who run the Lincoln Project hold sway. They're moderate - at least compared to the current nutcases - and obviously have a ton of money. If this November is a blood bath, then maybe saner heads will prevail, with that faction of the GOP winning out over the extremists. I think even a guy like Moscow Mitch would prefer not to have his party infested with crazy people. I suspect there are a lot of similar views in the Republican Party. They're big supporters now for their survival but as soon as Trump is gone, I think a *LOT* of GOPers will be happy to see him gone.

That said, I will admit there is no small dose of wishful thinking behind that view. I actually *want* a principled, moderate conservative party in the USA if for no other reason to keep the Dems from going off the rails.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
Bob001 said:
What are the odds that Trump will dump Pence and bring on Nikki Haley or any other woman who will run with him? There must be somebody. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't put it past him either.
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Zero. He'd come off looking desperate.
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When has that ever bothered him?

He does it a few times a week on his best days.

The frequency does seem to be increasing, though.
 
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The Don said:
<snip>

To remain in power at a national level (there are states where they will continue to hold power indefinitely), they will have to increasingly appeal to fringes, many of whom don't currently vote. As I said upthread they started the process with the Evangelicals, then the Tea Party and now the Trumpists. QAnon is the next example of low hanging fruit and eventually they'll need to appeal directly to white supremacists.

<snip>
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Each successive group has had an increasing overlap with the one before. And the earlier ones seem to be able to hold their noses and accept the new allies.

This time I think the overlap is almost total (and the white supremacists have been included all along), and the nose pinching almost abandoned. I don't see it as all that significant an addition.

The only thing that has changed is that ... as difficult as it is to imagine to be possible ... the Repugnicans have become even more blatant and unabashed about admitting their bigotry and showing their desperation..

I hope that is enough to disgust and energize the voters who stayed home in the past out of apathy.
 
Bob001 said:
varwoche said:
The first platform, MySpace, would dominate. Or some other new entity trying to better MySpace. Or the Winklevoss brothers would have obtained different funding. Let's not imagine that Zuckerberg actually invented this stuff.
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Sure. There would have been something, probably more than one thing. But they likely wouldn't have been run quite with Z.'s single-minded ruthlessness. We might also ask where we'd be with more effective (or just some) anti-trust enforcement.
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Why do you think that? It takes a pretty ruthless sort of person to helm a company from nothing to the heights that Zuckerberg has managed. What make you believe it likely that anyone else would be less ruthless. I suspect the odds are just as good that they would be worse.
 
Bob001 said:
What are the odds that Trump will dump Pence and bring on Nikki Haley or any other woman who will run with him? There must be somebody. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't put it past him either.
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Beelzebuddy said:
Zero. He'd come off looking desperate.
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Zero, but not because he’d look desperate. Trump cannot conceive of the idea that he would appear desperate, so he would not fear it.

The chances are zero because of his attitudes toward women.
 
Norman Alexander said:
True. I didn't say it was a winning strategy. Just that it will be THE operative strategy for the Q-nuts.

A better approach for the GOP would be to ensure these head-cases get nowhere near even a sniff of getting into Congress as GOP candidates. Instead, pick nice, warm, lovable, aw-shucks folks with brains who can have the game-plan explained to them without blabbing it out loud and getting it wrong.
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The thing is that the person who wins the primary reflects the view if that local party. Unless the local party is willing to cede control for candidate selection to the state or national party, they're going to select candidates like this - who will go on to win if the district is safe enough.

The "big brains" aren't in control any more (that's also true for the Democrats who are selecting more radical candidates in districts where they reflect the views of the local party) if you want their votes then "the loonies" are going to get some candidates.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Trump's rating is inexplicably climbing again, it's all the way up to 41.9% now according to 538. I know it probably means absolutely nothing that his ratings go up or down by a single percentage point, and so I probably shouldn't obsess over his ratings as much as I do, but what can one do.
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For what it's worth, IIRC, the effects of negative media coverage on ratings, as a general matter, tends to nigh evaporate over the course of a couple weeks, as a point of reference.
 
The Don said:
The thing is that the person who wins the primary reflects the view if that local party.
.....
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I don't know if that's true. Pretty much anybody can run in a primary, even for President. Prominent Republicans apparently spoke against the Qanon woman. Maybe the local party should find a way to be more restrictive.
 
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