2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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LondonJohn said:
...the gigantic difference in scale of the problem posed by COVID-19 when compared with seasonal flu.
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Actually, we don’t really know the mortality rate of COVID 19 but it is sure to be higher than flu.

The other important things are that we don’t know the lifecycle of this disease. Will it have a season, like flu, or will it continue on through summer and winter, in both hemispheres and the tropics? I think we don’t yet know.

And of course, no vaccines or immunity yet.
 
dudalb said:
NBA just announced it is suspending the season after Rudy Golbert, the player whose illness caused the cancellation of the OKC/Utah game tonight, tested positive for the virus.
That is two celebs in one evening, one the big three American Sports leagues basically shuting down, and an horrid speech from Trump which I suspect even a lot of Republicans in private were appalled by.
The panic is going to be off the scales tomorrow.
And I don't even want to think what the markets are agoing to do.
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A player for Juventus in Italy also tested positive for the virus.
 
quadraginta said:
Sure, but is it effective action ... or panic?
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A NBA player got sick on the court just before a game started early this evening, and tested positive for the virus.
I am glad the NBA is erring on the side of caution in this situation..
 
angrysoba said:
A player for Juventus in Italy also tested positive for the virus.
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problems with sports teams is they travel around a lot, and no telling which area players might have infected.
Last game to be played is about five miles from me, as the Sacramento Kings play the New Orleans Pelicans.
 
LondonJohn said:
This ought to illustrate how COVID-19 appears to be spreading far more easily than seasonal flu, with huge consequential effects.
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Mate, you maybe should have had a wee look at the thread first - all that has long since been posted multiple times.
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Meanwhile, Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive while in Australia.

I'd be interested to know how long they've been there.
 
dudalb said:
A NBA player got sick on the court just before a game started early this evening, and tested positive for the virus.
I am glad the NBA is erring on the side of caution in this situation..
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$8.6 billion off GDP in one hit. Assuming baseball goes the same way, that will be another 10.
 
The Atheist said:
Mate, you maybe should have had a wee look at the thread first - all that has long since been posted multiple times.
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Ermmmmm

Well, firstly, I didn't really have the time or inclination to read all 20 pages of this continuation thread, and all of the thread preceding it. Though I did read about the last 3 pages of this continuation thread first.

And secondly, people were making arguments over the past couple of pages questioning why we should be taking such extreme action over COVID-19, and with specific reference to seasonal flu as a comparator. And nobody (it appeared to me) had made any cogent argument to rebut that and to explain precisely why COVID-19 is such a different animal from seasonal flu.

If what I posted had been posted some time back in this or the preceding thread, you could.... always just have scrolled on past. But thanks for taking the time and trouble to point this out to me, and for your kind advice to "take a wee look at the thread first". Much appreciated, mate.
 
angrysoba said:
Actually, we don’t really know the mortality rate of COVID 19 but it is sure to be higher than flu.
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I know - and I heavily caveated the numbers accordingly. Stats and estimates are changing almost daily. And total-population mortality rates for COVID-19 are centering in on 2.5%-3.5%, which is why I used that range.

But I was primarily intending to show the key differences between COVID-19 and seasonal flu (in order to address arguments suggesting we ought perhaps to be more worried about seasonal flu, and/or that we are overreacting to COVID-19), and even though the COVID-19 stats are unreliable, they are (as you say) most definitely worse than those of seasonal flu. And in particular, the difference in R0 stats (again, allowing for current unreliability of COVID-19 figures) mean that COVID-19 almost certainly spreads exponentially more quickly than seasonal flu.




The other important things are that we don’t know the lifecycle of this disease. Will it have a season, like flu, or will it continue on through summer and winter, in both hemispheres and the tropics? I think we don’t yet know.
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True - though it's likely that COVID-19 will have at least some element of seasonality, perhaps in mortality terms more than transmission terms.




And of course, no vaccines or immunity yet.
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Nope.
 
angrysoba said:
Actually, we don’t really know the mortality rate of COVID 19 but it is sure to be higher than flu.
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I'm still not convinced. The way it's spreading still me suspicious the actual rate of infection could be a huge factor higher than we're seeing.

When I was looking back through the thread earlier, I was again reminded of this comment from Imperial College, London, dated 23 January 2020:

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.
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As far as I'm aware, that point has yet to be disproven.

If you multiple the cases by 50, things start to look a bit more rational.

angrysoba said:
The other important things are that we don’t know the lifecycle of this disease. Will it have a season, like flu, or will it continue on through summer and winter, in both hemispheres and the tropics? I think we don’t yet know.
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I'm beginning to become convinced it's a cold weather disease. It's going nuts in Europe, where temperatures average below 10 deg C. The states with by far the highest numbers are cold ones in USA - the fairly large numbers in the temperate states of Ca and Fl are probably just weight of numbers.

Compare the numbers in Europe and the big number states in USA with Australia, NZ, South Africa, Indonesia and other warm countries. Spain might be the anomaly.

Maybe I'm talking from hope and it's about to be unleashed on warmer climes?

angrysoba said:
And of course, no vaccines or immunity yet.
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No, but treatments are potentially possible.
 
The TV series "Riverdale" has suspended production after a "team member" was exposed to someone who tested positive for the virus.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Check back in 2 weeks.

Hope you don't have a fever 101F or higher.
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My daughter started with a high fever (104) which resolved, but mine has been in the 99's for a week with a mild dry cough. Hers had a runny nose and mine does not, so perhaps different things.

Normally, none of this would concern us at all, and I am still of the idea that our own individual risk is low. However, when something is going around and you KNOW it is there around you...somewhere, in some numbers, it makes you pause to think you could be the 'winner' of the latest covid-19 lottery.

I have not coughed once in the last 8 hours so I think I am done now. I guess I'll never know.
 
Sherkeu said:
My daughter started with a high fever (104) which resolved, but mine has been in the 99's for a week with a mild dry cough. Hers had a runny nose and mine does not, so perhaps different things.

Normally, none of this would concern us at all, and I am still of the idea that our own individual risk is low. However, when something is going around and you KNOW it is there around you...somewhere, in some numbers, it makes you pause to think you could be the 'winner' of the latest covid-19 lottery.

I have not coughed once in the last 8 hours so I think I am done now. I guess I'll never know.
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I hope that your family didn't win that lottery. But low probability events happen sometimes. A friend of ours won the statewide lottery years ago. It sometimes messes people up but while just a college student at the time, she was responsible, took the 20 year payout, and now owns a lot of real estate.
 
Sherkeu said:
I guess I'll never know.
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With your daughter having a higher temperature than you, it's less likely to be Covid-19, but there's enough weirdness around the virus that you won't know without a serological test.
 
Marcus said:
Specific travel bans to infected places seem reasonable to me. The more general bans (cower in your house and don't go anywhere) don't.
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You heard incompetrump tonight, right, banning all flights from Europe except the UK?

So if you are in France and you want to come here, simply fly to Canada first or take the tunnel to the UK as a departure point.
 
Marcus said:
Yes, Italy seems to have it bad, 827 deaths. So why don't we compare that to their flu deaths?

Read more: https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/03/11/how-many-people-die-annually-from-flu-in-italy/#ixzz6GQdDNCnr


My point is not that we shouldn't care about people dying, but that there is a big discrepancy between how we react to coronovirus and how we react to the flu. 68k deaths doesn't even make the news, but 827 is big news.
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You're still comparing an early pandemic to a mature one.
 
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