2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Captain_Swoop said:
Home delivery would be allowed.
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That's a cool coincidence - I was just about to come and post on that very subject, because I finally bashed through a brick wall and made some progress just now.

I've been trying to set up a Covid-19 response team for exactly the situation that's happening in Italy.

Their existing systems for delivering goods to people won't cope, and nor would ours. I've proposed to our health ministry that they should work with me to have teams of people - police checked and drug tested - ready to take on deliveries of food and most importantly, pharmaceuticals, to people either cut off by quarantine, or self-isolating through not wanting to get it; the elderly, cancer patients and the like.

I'm trying to get ahead of the game, because everyone other than SK seems to be in reactive mode, and that's what caused the mess Italy's now experiencing.

It seems a no-brainer to me, costs the health services nothing, and will be a lifesaver for people who can't get their medicines, baby formula or other essentials.
 
Marcus said:
I agree with of all of these statements. The consequences from coronavirus are already far reaching, the artists and musicians I know, including myself, are in trouble, and anyone with a retirement account with a stock component has seen the numbers decline drastically. The biggest problem is the panic though.


For the numbers of deaths in the US to rival those of the flu, it would have to get much worse than it is in China.
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And as far as the collaterial damage to the economy goes, it's not so much how bad the virus is, but how bad people think it is.
Frankly, in the US I think that we have a POTUS who is totally blowing the response and seems unable to calm things down is not helping the panic much.
 
Marcus said:
I agree with of all of these statements. The consequences from coronavirus are already far reaching, the artists and musicians I know, including myself, are in trouble, and anyone with a retirement account with a stock component has seen the numbers decline drastically. The biggest problem is the panic though.
For the numbers of deaths in the US to rival those of the flu, it would have to get much worse than it is in China.
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Biggest problem for who? Think that was the biggest problem for patients, staff and family members of Life Care Center in Kirkland?

Think that's the biggest problem for Evergreen Medical Center? How about Kirkland police and fire and Woodinville fire?

How about Bellevue police and fire. They don't have anyone in quarantine yet but they are going on calls.
 
Problem is we need a POTUS who can calm things down, and Trump whole MO is just the opposite..create hysteria that he can exploit for his political purposes.
 
Sherkeu said:
Oh, for sure we have a lot more cases (in fact, I have the symptoms right now so who knows?). Haven't tested hardly anyone! :mad:
However, if it were spreading here like the places with public transport and cold weather did, we'd have our hospitals slammed with cases by now. But we don't.
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Check back in 2 weeks.

Hope you don't have a fever 101F or higher.
 
The Atheist said:
That's a cool coincidence - I was just about to come and post on that very subject, because I finally bashed through a brick wall and made some progress just now.

I've been trying to set up a Covid-19 response team for exactly the situation that's happening in Italy.

Their existing systems for delivering goods to people won't cope, and nor would ours. I've proposed to our health ministry that they should work with me to have teams of people - police checked and drug tested - ready to take on deliveries of food and most importantly, pharmaceuticals, to people either cut off by quarantine, or self-isolating through not wanting to get it; the elderly, cancer patients and the like.

I'm trying to get ahead of the game, because everyone other than SK seems to be in reactive mode, and that's what caused the mess Italy's now experiencing.

It seems a no-brainer to me, costs the health services nothing, and will be a lifesaver for people who can't get their medicines, baby formula or other essentials.
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Video: Food/medicine delivery in Wuhan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAsTMl3txyQ
 
Marcus said:
I don't deny that less restrictive measures would mean more deaths. It's a matter of perspective, though. In the same way that making cars illegal would eliminate highway deaths, locking down the country every winter would cut down on those hundreds of thousands of flu deaths.


Coronavirus is different because it's new and very newsworthy (and facebook worthy). A panic has been inspired that is out of proportion with the danger.
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Yeah, Trump and the GOP would love you to believe that.

They won't be able to say that for long.

How long did it take cases to explode in Italy?
 
JeanTate said:
:confused:

In the US, it's been many years since such deaths exceeded 200k, right?

Maybe even not since the 1918 Spanish Flu?
Right. In the US, 61k flu deaths in the 2017-2018 flu season. Sorry about that, worldwide flu deaths range from 291k to646k
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What, may I ask, do you see "the danger" to be, to day?
The largest danger os to the economy
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How does that perspective of yours, today, compare with what it was a month ago? three months ago?
I'd say it is a bit more relaxed now. China is around 3k deaths and they are coming out of it, the dire predictions didn't come true.
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What's your view on the kind of travel bans etc which the US, Australia (and more) put in place, ~a month ago?
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Specific travel bans to infected places seem reasonable to me. The more general bans (cower in your house and don't go anywhere) don't.
 
Marcus said:
Specific travel bans to infected places seem reasonable to me. The more general bans (cower in your house and don't go anywhere) don't.
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A handful of small music clubs in Japan's western city of Osaka have emerged as a major transmission ground for the coronavirus, showing the difficulty of stemming the outbreak even as authorities have focused on reining in large gatherings.

Japan has closed schools, zoos and theme parks, and drastically scaled back public events since the outbreak. The annual spring sumo tournament is being held in Osaka without spectators, leaving public broadcaster NHK to televise bouts of wrestlers facing off in an eerily quiet stadium.

Despite those steps, and the government's urging telecommuting, there are signs that smaller crowds - including those at restaurants and tiny "live houses" where fans stand cheek by jowl to hear live music - are spreading the virus.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-music-idUSKBN20X0WU
 
The Atheist said:
You might like to compare the number of cases v deaths in Italy and South Korea.

Right now, the official numbers show:

Italy: total cases - 12, 462, deaths - 827. Total number tested - 73,154. Daily increase average past 7 days is well over 20%.

South Korea: total cases - 7,775, deaths - 60. Total number tested - 222,395. Daily increase per day for past four days has been no more than 3%.

Tell me which scenario you'd rather be a part of.

And maybe read this first: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/k7ex4a
/coronavirus-has-northern-italys-hospitals-on-the-brink-of-collapse
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Yes, Italy seems to have it bad, 827 deaths. So why don't we compare that to their flu deaths?
According to the study, 68 000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics in the winter months between 2013 and 2014, and 2016 and 2017 respectively.
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Read more: https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/03/11/how-many-people-die-annually-from-flu-in-italy/#ixzz6GQdDNCnr


My point is not that we shouldn't care about people dying, but that there is a big discrepancy between how we react to coronovirus and how we react to the flu. 68k deaths doesn't even make the news, but 827 is big news.
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Even if those numbers are close to true, do you have any idea what they did to stop slow the virus' spread? :rolleyes:
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They took drastic measures, and I'm sure their numbers are undereported. Still not enough to make this into the Andromeda Strain.
 
Marcus said:
Specific travel bans to infected places seem reasonable to me. The more general bans (cower in your house and don't go anywhere) don't.
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Travel bans to uninfected places (Do you know any?!) would be better at this point. That is probably the only way to help them stay uninfected.
 
dudalb said:
And as far as the collaterial damage to the economy goes, it's not so much how bad the virus is, but how bad people think it is.
Frankly, in the US I think that we have a POTUS who is totally blowing the response and seems unable to calm things down is not helping the panic much.
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That's what I have been saying, it's how bad people think it is.


As far as the political angle goes, I'm sure people would love to be able to blame Trump but it seems like a stretch.
 
Marcus said:
Yes, Italy seems to have it bad, 827 deaths. So why don't we compare that to their flu deaths?

Read more: https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/03/11/how-many-people-die-annually-from-flu-in-italy/#ixzz6GQdDNCnr


My point is not that we shouldn't care about people dying, but that there is a big discrepancy between how we react to coronovirus and how we react to the flu. 68k deaths doesn't even make the news, but 827 is big news.
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That is not 68,000 a year, by the way. The study that was referenced says that is accumulated over four years.
 
dann said:
Travel bans to uninfected places (Do you know any?!) would be better at this point. That is probably the only way to help them stay uninfected.
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If you mean places with zero cases, not many of those, but China, Italy, Iran and South Korea are the hotspots.


Here in Austin, for example, we have 1 confirmed case as far as I know. Most of the population would have preferred if the South by Southwest music festival was allowed to take place, perhaps preventing flights from the most afflicted countries. Yes, there would be some risk, but all of life is a risk reward calculation.
 
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Marcus said:
If you mean places with zero cases, not many of those, but China, Italy, Iran and South Korea are the hotspots.


Here in Austin, for example, we have 1 confirmed case as far as I know. Most of the population would have preferred if the South by Southwest music festival was allowed to take place, perhaps preventing flights from the most afflicted countries. Yes, there would be some risk, but all of life is a risk reward calculation.
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The problem with this thinking is that it is not a case of simply weighing up the risks and rewards to yourself, which you can easily do for yourself, but also the risks to other people who come into contact with those who get the reward of going to the music festival.
 
A friend of mine apparently weighed up the risks to sending his child to nursery with a fever and decided the rewards to him were worth the risk to others.

Just an example.
 
angrysoba said:
That is not 68,000 a year, by the way. The study that was referenced says that is accumulated over four years.
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The way I read it is 2 flu seasons, I thought that was clear from the quote I included. They said the winter months BETWEEN 2013-2014 and 2016-2017. They could have meant all four years though I suppose.
 
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