Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[portlandatheist]

Here's a great resource, made by a highschool student from Mercer Island (near Seattle)
story:
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/high-...-serve-leading-place-coronavirus-information/
actual website:
https://ncov2019.live/data

 

[arthwollipot]

A few random things:

Māori tribe restricts hongi greeting over coronavirus

Coronavirus: Australian newspaper prints extra pages to help out in toilet paper shortage

Cleaning up: the best 20-second songs to wash your hands to

 

[angrysoba]

Only if they are afraid of quality free advertising. I mean the film Contagion is one of the most searched for films this day on all the streaming services. It is relevant therefore people are interested.

Maybe they might be worried about their reputation if they appear to be cashing in on it. I mean, if Matt Damon rush-released Contagion II: Corona Quarantine, people might think he was being a little unscrupulous.

That said, I wonder if Gwyneth Paltrow will release a new corona-repellent vagina mask as this season’s hot item!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Many shipping boxes are the box from the manufacturer. These can be cardboard with a glossy paper cover or large label. Think of a flat-screen TV box, or slow cooker box or whatever. That glossy paper might be like a hard surface when it comes to viruses.

Yes of course. I hoped that would be obvious but it's worth mentioning I guess.

 

[alfaniner]

Maybe they might be worried about their reputation if they appear to be cashing in on it. I mean, if Matt Damon rush-released Contagion II: Corona Quarantine, people might think he was being a little unscrupulous.

That said, I wonder if Gwyneth Paltrow will release a new corona-repellent vagina mask as this season’s hot item!

Considering her character dies five minutes into the movie I can't see that as a strong selling point...

 

[xjx388]

Do you have any good reason for thinking this?

ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2

That link cites the current evidence for this first appearing in humans in November 2019.

I’m just trying to think it through.

If it appeared in humans in November 2019, that means it spread in China at least somewhat before anyone knew what it was. Which means, given the travel to and from China, it could have spread all over the world. Ergo, it was likely out of control before they really implemented containment measures in very late December, early January. Which fits with the evidence of people unconnected with China or known cases testing positive “in the wild.”

If most people only get bad colds, it wouldn’t be a cause for anyone to suspect anything weird until, basically, now. They would go about their business as we all do when we have a cold, spreading it more.

Thus, if we could test every person who had a cold right now, I’d be willing to bet that a good chunk would test positive.

 

[curious cat]

No, Everclear is 190 proof grain alcohol sold as a liquor. Other than ethanol toxicity, it's perfectly safe to drink and has no added flavor.

Think of it as vodka on steroids, except that it's not made from potatoes.

I was talking about Methylated Spirits, about which the question I was answering was (I believe).

 

[Meadmaker]

Can you post a link to the page on the WHO site? I couldn't find that information, but probably looked in the wrong place.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

It says, more accurately, that it can't survive long on objects, such as letters or packages. I inferred that it was the material, because elsewhere it said it could survive up to nine days on some surfaces.

My wife pointed out that the thing inside the package might be made out of plastic or some more virus friendly material.


My wife isn't much of an optimist.

 

[quadraginta]

Mutation? Bah! That would be Evolution! Mike Pence KNOWS evolution is a commie hoax!
The US epicenter if 40 miles southeast of me. I hope it just stays there.

It didn't. It made it to North Carolina.

 

[The Atheist]

The PHD Lab cheerily tells us how many specimens they can test now. No one mentions, good luck finding a doctor to do the test.

We have plenty of test kits and heaps of medical staff to do the tests; they're just not bothering.

There was a superb case yesterday of a young bloke who asked to be tested but was denied because neither he nor any of his family had been overseas.

He had the classical symptoms, at a time when no respiratory viruses are going around, and works in the tourist industry, where he has lots of contact with Chinese and Korean tourists.

Ergo, it was likely out of control before they really implemented containment measures in very late December, early January. Which fits with the evidence of people unconnected with China or known cases testing positive “in the wild.”

If most people only get bad colds, it wouldn’t be a cause for anyone to suspect anything weird until, basically, now. They would go about their business as we all do when we have a cold, spreading it more.

Thus, if we could test every person who had a cold right now, I’d be willing to bet that a good chunk would test positive.

Could be right.

We know from other pandemics that serious cases are noticed first, and by the time China discovered the pneumonia outbreak and started looking at it, it might have spread all over the place. They're about to start serological testing in China, so that may answer some questions.

 

[Trebuchet]

It didn't. It made it to North Carolina.

Well, that's the right direction.
Meanwhile, we are being asked not to lick the envelopes when we mail our primary election ballots.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I’m just trying to think it through.

If it appeared in humans in November 2019, that means it spread in China at least somewhat before anyone knew what it was. Which means, given the travel to and from China, it could have spread all over the world. Ergo, it was likely out of control before they really implemented containment measures in very late December, early January. Which fits with the evidence of people unconnected with China or known cases testing positive “in the wild.”

All that speculation. Did it dawn on you to actually look at the epidemiological research into the beginning of this pandemic?

If most people only get bad colds, it wouldn’t be a cause for anyone to suspect anything weird until, basically, now. They would go about their business as we all do when we have a cold, spreading it more.

Thus, if we could test every person who had a cold right now, I’d be willing to bet that a good chunk would test positive.

That last sentence has validity, the bulk of infections right now in the US aren't being detected.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

We have plenty of test kits and heaps of medical staff to do the tests; they're just not bothering.

There was a superb case yesterday of a young bloke who asked to be tested but was denied because neither he nor any of his family had been overseas.

He had the classical symptoms, at a time when no respiratory viruses are going around, and works in the tourist industry, where he has lots of contact with Chinese and Korean tourists.

Where is it all these "staff" work"?

Do you know the test involves bronchoalveolar lavage?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/guidelines-clinical-specimens.html

I. Respiratory Specimens
A. Lower respiratory tract
Bronchoalveolar lavage, tracheal aspirateCollect 2-3 mL into a sterile, leak-proof, screw-cap sputum collection cup or sterile dry container. Refrigerate specimen at 2-8°C and ship overnight to CDC on ice pack.

Sputum
Have the patient rinse the mouth with water and then expectorate deep cough sputum directly into a sterile, leak-proof, screw-cap sputum collection cup or sterile dry container. Refrigerate specimen at 2-8°C and ship overnight to CDC on ice pack.

B. Upper respiratory tract
Nasopharyngeal swab AND oropharyngeal swab (NP/OP swab)
Use only synthetic fiber swabs with plastic shafts. Do not use calcium alginate swabs or swabs with wooden shafts, as they may contain substances that inactivate some viruses and inhibit PCR testing. Place swabs immediately into sterile tubes containing 2-3 ml of viral transport media. NP and OP specimens should be kept in separate vials. Refrigerate specimen at 2-8°C and ship overnight to CDC on ice pack.

Nasopharyngeal swab: Insert a swab into the nostril parallel to the palate. Leave the swab in place for a few seconds to absorb secretions.
Oropharyngeal swab (e.g., throat swab): Swab the posterior pharynx, avoiding the tongue.

Nasopharyngeal wash/aspirate or nasal aspirate
Collect 2-3 mL into a sterile, leak-proof, screw-cap sputum collection cup or sterile dry container. Refrigerate specimen at 2-8°C and ship overnight to CDC on ice pack.

You have plenty of staff trained to do those procedures?

Your example is a commonly reported experience, BTW.

Could be right.

We know from other pandemics that serious cases are noticed first, and by the time China discovered the pneumonia outbreak and started looking at it, it might have spread all over the place. They're about to start serological testing in China, so that may answer some questions.

He's not right and they've been doing genome testing. Yes serological testing might turn up a surprise or two, but this has not been circulating in the human population for years. It's not like HIV.

It is thought maybe the live animal market wasn't where the first cases occurred. Beyond that however, it hasn't been circulating.

 

[The Atheist]

You have plenty of staff trained to do those procedures?

The Ministry reckons so, and I'd be inclined to agree with them. NZ's health system has its issues, but not being world-class isn't one of them.

He's not right and they've been doing genome testing. Yes serological testing might turn up a surprise or two, but this has not been circulating in the human population for years. It's not like HIV.

I'd already disagreed that it had been circulating for years, but as it's showing right now, it can travel a long way in short periods, and given the propensity for cases with minimal symptoms, I'd be surprised if it hasn't been in communities for longer than we think.
_______________________

Meanwhile, the WHO, while still not declaring it a pandemic, looks determined to scare the crap out of everyone, claiming it has a fatality rate of 3.4%.

I'm going to say right now that's a load of bollocks.

3.4% of proven cases, sure, but pretty well every viral and epidemic expert I've seen has stated there are at least ten times more cases that haven't been tested. SK is showing that up, as do all the countries - like USA - where community transmission has happened completely under the radar.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

There may be a good number of undiagnosed deaths, too. Old person dies of respiratory problems? Nothing unusual about that. They ought to test every death that looks even vaguely suspicious, but they don't AFAIK.

 

[xjx388]

All that speculation. Did it dawn on you to actually look at the epidemiological research into the beginning of this pandemic?

I’m a layperson trying to make some sense of all this. Epidemiology bores me; that’s why I manage medical clinics instead of doing the doctoring. Since you are an expert, you could just tell me what I’m missing. Where is my reasoning off?

And let me be clear, I’m not saying it has been circulating for years. More like a couple months before it was finally detected.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
I'd already disagreed that it had been circulating for years, but as it's showing right now, it can travel a long way in short periods, and given the propensity for cases with minimal symptoms, I'd be surprised if it hasn't been in communities for longer than we think....

It's definitely been circulating here including missed deaths that are now being recognized.

 

[Planigale]

WHO briefing
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Key messages;

Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Locally our NHS service has now included Sars CoV 2 (the cause of covid 19) in the routine respiratory virus screen along with flu A, B and RSV. So all swabs / gargles sent for patients with a viral RTI will be tested regardless of exposure history. (There are other viruses I know, there is an extended screen that is done if relevant.)

 

[Puppycow]

So a bit of good news and bad news I guess.
"COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza" (good news)
"COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza" (bad news)

Plus nobody has immunity.

 

[dann]

56 cases in Norway, 15 in Denmark, one of those in the Faroe Islands.
Most Scandinavian cases so far have been traced back to Italy where many people go skiing in February.