Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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xjx388 said:
I can see a time, not too long from now, when we realize that this bug had actually been in the population for a good bit of time before it became big news. That people had actually had it, thought it was just a bad cold and moved on with their lives after a few days.

Yesterday was especially busy for us. A lot of upper respiratory stuff came through, coughing, fever, etc. We, obviously, don't test for Covid-19. A lot of those patients did test positive for flu or strep, but a lot did not. I'd wager that if we (and every other doctor's office) sent a swab of every patient with flu-like symptoms to a capable lab, that we would actually catch some people that had Covid-19. IOW, I'd bet it's already long been circulating among us and we thought it was just another bad cold.

We do a respiratory panel for patients with persistent URIs that checks dna/rna for multiple pathogens. There are a few coronaviruses on that list and patients freak out when they see it. One day, this one's going to be on the list too.
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It hit me this morning that this isn't going to be a matter of isolating for a couple weeks until it blows over. C19 is basically gonna be part of the flu-like landscape forever, now.
 
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RecoveringYuppy said:
Do you have any good reason for thinking this?
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My reason for thinking this is that it's reported as being:

a) extremely contagious

b) mostly indistinguishable from a bad case of the flu

So I'd expect it to spread fast, and for most of the people who caught it to have recovered without prompting a closer look by healthcare providers, passing it on along the way.

This is also consistent with my hypothesis that the real problem in China isn't the virulence of C19, but the fact that China has built a developing nation shell around a failed state interior, and this outbreak just happened to hit them right in the nuts.
 
Roboramma said:
In my apartment building people who don't live there aren't even allowed in to the building.

Delivery is left on the street (about 100meters from the lobby, at the gate where cars can enter).

At least that's how it was a week ago. I decided to take a holiday and am in Thailand now. Wasn't enjoying being locked up in doors all the time, and I couldn't work anyway. It's nice here.
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Point being, this is unlikely to cause a problem for someone undergoing self-quarantine.
 
theprestige said:
Enh.

I happen to share his opinion, and felt like giving my own reasons.

If you have something personal going on with xjx, though, I'll leave you to it. Sorry to intrude.
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I'm afraid I don't see how your reasons explain why you'd think this virus appeared in humans before Nov 2019. They do make sense if you thought I was questioning your post which appeared immediately ahead of mine but I don't have any reason to disagree with what you said there. I think what you said there is undoubtedly correct.
 
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Minoosh said:
Everclear is almost pure grain alcohol. I'm not familiar with methylated spirits. Wouldn't it hurt like hell to put it on a wound?
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Not any more than a medical alcohol. I am not sure about the exact composition of that stuff, but as an educated guess - almost pure ethylalcohol with a small percentage of some bittering agents to spoil the taste and MAYBE (I strongly suspect it is not actually true in most countries) some methylacohol to make it poison if digested.
 
curious cat said:
Not any more than a medical alcohol. I am not sure about the exact composition of that stuff, but as an educated guess - almost pure ethylalcohol with a small percentage of some bittering agents to spoil the taste and MAYBE (I strongly suspect it is not actually true in most countries) some methylacohol to make it poison if digested.
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No, Everclear is 190 proof grain alcohol sold as a liquor. Other than ethanol toxicity, it's perfectly safe to drink and has no added flavor.

Think of it as vodka on steroids, except that it's not made from potatoes.
 
Belz... said:
Considering the reason, one wonders if they'll move ALL the movies. :rolleyes:
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I have to wonder if MGM decided to beat the rush by moving the film to November.
Ironically, the world premiere of the film was going to take place in April in Beijing....
 
Toilet paper's one and only Australian manufacturing hub also sees a run on the shelves

The townsfolk of the one place in Australia that makes toilet paper are still worried about running out, despite being metres from the mill that makes the stuff.



Australians have been stockpiling everyday items like toilet paper in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

And in Millicent, on South Australia's Limestone Coast, locals have also succumbed to the toilet paper panic.

The town is home to the country's only production facility, owned by multinational Kimberley-Clark (KCA).

Midway through last year, the company announced the closure of its Ingleburn Mill in Sydney as part of a global restructuring program.

While some production moved to KCA facilities in Asia, local production of Kleenex, VIVA, and Kimberley-Clark Professional products remains at the Millicent mill.

In response to the demand of toilet paper in recent days, the mill has ramped up its 24-hour production.
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Genetic analysis does not support the claim it has been circulating before the current outbreak.

Epidemiology does not support the claim it has been circulating before the current outbreak.
 
 
dudalb said:
I think that new TV Miniseries of Stephan King's "The Stand" scheduled to be aired this fall, might be indefinently postponed...….

BTW quite a few people have nicknamed the virus "Captain Trips".
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Only if they are afraid of quality free advertising. I mean the film Contagion is one of the most searched for films this day on all the streaming services. It is relevant therefore people are interested.
 
theprestige said:
This is also consistent with my hypothesis that the real problem in China isn't the virulence of C19, but the fact that China has built a developing nation shell around a failed state interior, and this outbreak just happened to hit them right in the nuts.
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Doesn't fit the evidence, either.

Italy & Iran are both showing fatality rates of 3%, and they're both pretty well where China was towards the end of January, in number of deaths, but China was showing about half that rate.

The numbers are skewed in the early stages by the incubation delay, which is quite long. Give it a week before declaring China a failure. I think they've done the world a large favour in slowing the spread. Whether or not the rest of the world acts on it, we're about to find out, with wild spread in over 50 countries.
 
Yee-haa!

NZ's third Covid-19 case has been found, the parent of a child at a middle school in Auckland.

There are three schools within 1 km of our house. My kids go to the primary school and the senior school, and the middle school in question is the one that goes with those two, right next door to the senior college.

Like USA, I strongly suspect it's been here for weeks without anyone noticing.
 
Minoosh said:
I went to the store and got bunch of canned food but forgot hand sanitizer. In a pinch I'm pretty sure vodka would do the trick.
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It's hard on the skin. The sanitizers generally have glycerin and other skin lotions to counteract the drying effect of the alcohol.
 
The Atheist said:
From The Atlantic on numbers: https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...any-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

Fits exactly the scenario we've been discussing, and emphasises the value of SK's data.
_____________________________

And your daily covid-19 humour, this time from Lourdes: https://www.indcatholicnews.com/news/39051
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I can attest to undercounting first hand. They have not tested a fraction of the people here in King County.

The PHD Lab cheerily tells us how many specimens they can test now. No one mentions, good luck finding a doctor to do the test.

There's a lot of confusion on whether they've tested those patients in the Care Center. There are reports they have but I swear that is reporters assuming so because why wouldn't they have tested these people. Ask the family members hanging out around the center and they all tell a different story. No reporters have asked, who did the tests?

We'll find out in a couple weeks when they actually start testing the sick people in this community.
 
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