Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[The Atheist]

Since the dosage of quinine required to be effective against malaria equates to about 67 litres of tonic water per day, I suspect that may be a rather ineffective strategy.

Dave

Who gives a crap about malaria? Malaria isn't a virus.

I figure aiming for 10l a day should be plenty.

Another interesting look at the data:

China is stabilizing at around 80k cases. They have almost 1400 million citizens. That's 5.7 cases per 100k.

Given the immense lockdown, I don't think we can read much into that. South Korea is the place for real data.

Italy is actually closing on it with 2502 cases per 60 million. That's 4.2 per 100k.

I'm quite certain Italy is well short on actual case numbers.

But the champion is South Korea with 5621 cases per 51 million people. That's 11 per 100k. With no decline in sight.

Still, in South Korea it's mostly about how much more they are testing comparing to anyone else at the moment.

Bingo!

A very rich country, with huge resources, a compliant population - outside of the loony church - an excellent health system and the ability to test vast numbers means that their numbers are the ones most likely to show the facts of the outbreak. They will be picking up a lot of the mild and asymptomatic cases that get missed elsewhere.

The encouraging thing about SK right now is the very low number of severe cases they're showing - only 0.5%, but it's early in the picture for them.

I went to the store and got bunch of canned food but forgot hand sanitizer. In a pinch I'm pretty sure vodka would do the trick.

No, but Bacardi 151 would work, although you might have to soak your hands in it. At 75% alcohol it's still safe to drink afterwards.

 

[The Atheist]

From The Atlantic on numbers: https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...any-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

Fits exactly the scenario we've been discussing, and emphasises the value of SK's data.
_____________________________

And your daily covid-19 humour, this time from Lourdes: https://www.indcatholicnews.com/news/39051

 

[Checkmite]

If that second person dies he should be charged with manslaughter.

Wonder if there is a path to civil or criminal liability here? This is an unusual case in that there is a lot of work being done to track the spread of the disease. It may be possible to identify reckless actors with a pretty high level of certainty, especially in these early days where the number of cases is low.

I am assuming that this would be a firing offense for any kind of medical organization.

It's an interesting question, one I was also thinking of when I first read the article.

I know that for example individuals have been arrested for having unprotected sex without informing their partner that they know they are HIV-positive. But I don't know the details or disposition of any of those cases.

 

[The Atheist]

This piece speaks to China's numbers and their lack of reliability:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...astically-but-doubt-remains?srnd=premium-asia

There’s some evidence of that: Chinese media outlet Caixin reported that Heilongjiang province in northern China had 104 asymptomatic infections which it did not add to its total of 480 confirmed cases on Feb. 25.

China does not release the number of asymptomatic infections in its daily nationwide tally, underscoring the uncertainty which remains over whether the outbreak is truly contained at its heart.

 

[dudalb]

What Goldfinger, Dr. No, Ernst Stavro Blofeld, and all of Spectre could not do the Corona Virus has done:defeated James Bond. Sony is moving "No Time To Die", the last Craig Bond movie, from early May to November.

 

[Trebuchet]

I went to the store and got bunch of canned food but forgot hand sanitizer. In a pinch I'm pretty sure vodka would do the trick.

You can't buy it here, every store is out. Vodka is apt to be only 40% alcohol. You need to use Everclear.

 

[marting]

From The Atlantic on numbers: https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...any-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

Fits exactly the scenario we've been discussing, and emphasises the value of SK's data.

Beats China. There they test but if you're asymptomatic it doesn't count. OTOH, they had changed their methodology to include severely sick patients that hadn't been yet tested due to testing shortages.

Here in the USA they didn't test for community spread. Even for severe cases. Move along. Nothing to see here.

Even now the latest WHO situation report as of 10AM CET, March 4, lists 6 deaths* total in the USA. I guess that only includes deaths confirmed by a CDC test rather than just the "presumptive test" done by hospitals which have to send it off to the CDC for verification. One would think by the time patients have died the CDC would have confirmation but apparently not.

* WHO only reports cases reported to them officially by the country.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Way upthread it was said by posters that shipped packages would not be dangerous. Are all bets off on that now?

Those hard surfaces are also non-porous like metal. Cardboard is not the same.

However, I an being cautious with the plastic envelope windows in the mail and the plastic tape and non porous labels on packages.

But keep in mind, the number of people that package and mail contact is few. A lot of that mail is sorted mechanically.

Then I just use my hand sanitizer inside my house after handling a lot of things that could be contaminated from the groceries to the bags they came in (when I don't have enough of my own bags).

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I read today on the WHO site that the type of surface matters. Apparently cardboard and paper aren't virus-friendly. It doesn't match my intuition, but that's what they said.

Why not?

Think about it. A porous surface absorbs liquid the virus is in. Then as it's dry, less is transferred to your hands.

 

[WhatRoughBeast]

Two strains of the killer coronavirus are spreading around the world – and 70% of infected patients have caught the more aggressive and contagious type, study claims

Wouldn't you expect that of the more aggressive and contagious type?

 

[Belz...]

What Goldfinger, Dr. No, Ernst Stavro Blofeld, and all of Spectre could not do the Corona Virus has done:defeated James Bond. Sony is moving "No Time To Die", the last Craig Bond movie, from early May to November.

Considering the reason, one wonders if they'll move ALL the movies.

 

[William Parcher]

Those hard surfaces are also non-porous like metal. Cardboard is not the same.

Many shipping boxes are the box from the manufacturer. These can be cardboard with a glossy paper cover or large label. Think of a flat-screen TV box, or slow cooker box or whatever. That glossy paper might be like a hard surface when it comes to viruses.

 

[rjh01]

I think it highly unlikely that the virus can accidentally be sent via the post internationally. If it can be there would be heaps of cases wherever China sends manufactured goods, such as Australia.

On the other hand the disease could be so rare that none of the people involved in the packaging of these goods actually had the virus as per Skeptic Ginger's post above. If this is the case then this virus is going to be not much worse than a bad flu season.

 

[William Parcher]

I think it highly unlikely that the virus can accidentally be sent via the post internationally.

Think domestic post and shipping too.

 

[KAJ]

I read today on the WHO site that the type of surface matters. Apparently cardboard and paper aren't virus-friendly. It doesn't match my intuition, but that's what they said.

Can you post a link to the page on the WHO site? I couldn't find that information, but probably looked in the wrong place.

 

[xjx388]

I can see a time, not too long from now, when we realize that this bug had actually been in the population for a good bit of time before it became big news. That people had actually had it, thought it was just a bad cold and moved on with their lives after a few days.

Yesterday was especially busy for us. A lot of upper respiratory stuff came through, coughing, fever, etc. We, obviously, don't test for Covid-19. A lot of those patients did test positive for flu or strep, but a lot did not. I'd wager that if we (and every other doctor's office) sent a swab of every patient with flu-like symptoms to a capable lab, that we would actually catch some people that had Covid-19. IOW, I'd bet it's already long been circulating among us and we thought it was just another bad cold.

We do a respiratory panel for patients with persistent URIs that checks dna/rna for multiple pathogens. There are a few coronaviruses on that list and patients freak out when they see it. One day, this one's going to be on the list too.

 

[curious cat]

I went to the store and got bunch of canned food but forgot hand sanitizer. In a pinch I'm pretty sure vodka would do the trick.

Apparently an alcohol sanitizer should contain at least 60% of alcohol - I am sure you do can get it in Moscow, but hardly anywhere else.
What's wrong with methylated spirits? I have been using this stuff even on open wounds and never had any problems. Probably not too healthy to drink, not to mention the taste, but I don't believe the stuff contains enough methyl to harm you by absorption through the skin.

 

[Minoosh]

You can't buy it here, every store is out. Vodka is apt to be only 40% alcohol. You need to use Everclear.

They actually stock that at CVS! I wonder if cops would be understanding of you're caught with an open container in a car.

Yep, they were out at Walgreens as well, but there were plenty of big bottles of rubbing alcohol, which is legal to carry around and would probably to the trick.
Ignore the frowny face, I create them by mistake and can't get rid of them.

 

[The Atheist]

Here in the USA they didn't test for community spread. Even for severe cases. Move along. Nothing to see here

Just keep all your attention on SK.

I see they're about to start some really mass testing to try to stem the outbreak. They are so far ahead of everyone else here, and I hope others are watching, because I can see a lot of countries headed their way very shortly in case load.

It'll be bloody interesting to see where their case load goes in 2-3 days' time.

I can see a time, not too long from now, when we realize that this bug had actually been in the population for a good bit of time before it became big news.

Doesn't fit the evidence.

The disease hasn't been sen in humans before.
They've tracked the outbreak and narrowed down patient Zero to a specific time and place.

Sorry, but that one won't work.

 

[Minoosh]

Apparently an alcohol sanitizer should contain at least 60% of alcohol - I am sure you do can get it in Moscow, but hardly anywhere else.
What's wrong with methylated spirits? I have been using this stuff even on open wounds and never had any problems. Probably not too healthy to drink, not to mention the taste, but I don't believe the stuff contains enough methyl to harm you by absorption through the skin.

Everclear is almost pure grain alcohol. I'm not familiar with methylated spirits. Wouldn't it hurt like hell to put it on a wound?