Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[marting]

You are assuming the tests are very accurate. They are not.

It appears false negatives are all too frequent. It's rather unnerving that numbers of people can show symptoms, test negative, but later test positive.

Suggests a generally higher R0 but lower fatality rate as lots of people that infected won't have been treated and may not even show symptoms.

It's going to be a race between trying to restrict the infection growth in the hopes of some treatments or vaccine while the percentages infected are low. It's almost certain to wreak havoc on countries with minimal health services. People are going to have to get used to avoiding crowds and washing their hands. Often.

Haven't seen any indication false positives are a problem. Not much comfort there.

 

[marting]

I was talking about masks for the lay public.

I'm an occupational infectious disease practitioner. Why did you post what the WHO says about health care workers using masks?

Because that's what the WHO link I posted was referring to and their advice was in regard to those.

https://www.who.int/publications-de...of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

 

[quadraginta]

<snip>

Haven't seen any indication false positives are a problem. Not much comfort there.

Would that even show up under pressure circumstances? It seems like it would need either more than one kind of test to check against, or multiple tests at the same time to compare. If someone tested positive, was quarantined for a while, and then tested negative it would just look like they got better, wouldn't it?

 

[marting]

Would that even show up under pressure circumstances? It seems like it would need either more than one kind of test to check against, or multiple tests at the same time to compare. If someone tested positive, was quarantined for a while, and then tested negative it would just look like they got better, wouldn't it?

False positives would most likely be from contamination where somehow actual virus from a source not the patient got amplified by the PCR process. Another possibility is that the components they amplify happen to be in another but different virus that is out there. No indication of that.

AFAIK, they don't yet have an antibody test that would still show a positive after recovery. PCR tests would revert to negative but that would not be a false negative. PCR tests can't be used to determine what portion of the population has recovered but hadn't previously tested positive.

 

[rjh01]

<snip>
Meanwhile, expect this graph to go completely exponential from here on:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina
<snip>

There is a tab called logarithmic. Click it and you will see that since Feb 1 it is already logarithmic. This means that the graph will say there will be about 10k cases outside China on around 13 March.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

False positives would most likely be from contamination where somehow actual virus from a source not the patient got amplified by the PCR process. Another possibility is that the components they amplify happen to be in another but different virus that is out there. No indication of that.

AFAIK, they don't yet have an antibody test that would still show a positive after recovery. PCR tests would revert to negative but that would not be a false negative. PCR tests can't be used to determine what portion of the population has recovered but hadn't previously tested positive.

And upon what are you basing all this wisdom on?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Re Japan: Japan says 23 passengers mistakenly left virus ship before testing

Around 100 more passengers have been allowed to disembark from the coronavirus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship over the weekend as Japan's health minister apologised after 23 others were allowed to leave without being properly tested.

The news came as a Japanese woman who left the ship on Wednesday [19 Feb 2020] tested positive for the virus after returning home to Tochigi Prefecture, Kyodo news agency reported, citing the prefectural government. She is the 1st person to have tested positive for the virus among the group of approximately 970 passengers who disembarked earlier this week, it said.

The 100 passengers who left on Saturday [22 Feb 2020] had been in close contact with infected people on board, local media said. They included the last group of Japanese passengers to leave the ship, while some foreign passengers were still waiting on board for their governments to send chartered aircraft. They will be quarantined for 2 weeks near Tokyo, officials said.

An official apology
At a news conference on Saturday [22 Feb 2020], Health Minister Katsunobu Kato apologised for 23 passengers having been allowed to leave the ship without undergoing all the required tests. "We deeply regret that our operational mistake caused the situation," Kato said, adding that the passengers would be tested again.

With the latest disembarkation, a 14-day quarantine is expected to start for more than 1000 crew still on board. Many of them were not placed in isolation as they were needed to keep the ship running, preparing food and delivering meals to cabins. Critics have charged that they were inadvertently spreading the virus throughout the ship, which has seen more than 600 cases of the potentially deadly COVID-19 disease.

 

[The Atheist]

And economic pressure in China will see people returning to work tomorrow, so expect to see the declining China numbers reverse themselves very shortly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/scared-china-workers-halt-firms-return-to-business

 

[Planigale]

Given the deaths in Iran (8 confirmed) infection is probably fairly widespread, so we can assume it will spread across from there to Iraq and Syria, and in particular into the refugee camps. Asylum seekers may well carry it across to Turkey and Greece. We might also expect spread through to Pakistan. The problem is that asylum seekers will avoid border checks, so will be high risk for spreading infection, whilst enhanced border checks might be able to at least detect people with fever.

It is unclear what is happening in Italy, but it seems unlikely Italy will be able to contain the infection, so we may see some checks introduced at European borders.

 

[Planigale]

Some what worrying coronaviruses may be a serious infection in pregnancy. Both in terms of severe maternal illness and poor pregnancy outcomes.
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/194

 

[Dr.Sid]

Italy now has 132 cases. They had none 3 days back. They will overtake Japan tomorrow like this (not counting the Diamond Princess).

South Korea is at 602, they had one 5 days back.

 

[angrysoba]

Italy now has 132 cases. They had none 3 days back. They will overtake Japan tomorrow like this (not counting the Diamond Princess).

South Korea is at 602, they had one 5 days back.

Apparently this year, because flu has been particularly bad in the US, the CDC is investigating the possibility that some of those with flu-like symptoms may in fact have COVID-19:

Health officials say that this is a particularly bad year for an extended influenza season since flu symptoms and some of the symptoms of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, are the same (fever, cough, shortness of breath), according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Last week, the CDC said it will begin testing individuals with influenza-like-illness (ILI) for COVID-19 at public health labs in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, and New York City. The CDC hopes to extend the initiative nationally.

“This is an extra layer of our response that will help us detect if and when this virus is spreading in the community,” Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the CDC’s Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters last Friday. “All of our efforts are now to prevent the sustained spread of the virus in our community, but we need to be prepared for the possibility that it will spread.”

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hai-types/cdc-seeks-test-some-flu-symptoms-covid-19

 

[alfaniner]

Back when I was working for a Major Mining and Manufacturing company, I remember the effect on the warehouses for both the people that worked there and the computer people that had to manage the systems. This was during one of the other airborne virus outbreaks, and the call for company-created masks skyrocketed and we had to scramble to account for extra personnel to handle all aspects of the supply chain.

 

[The Atheist]

Italy now has 132 cases. They had none 3 days back. They will overtake Japan tomorrow like this (not counting the Diamond Princess).

South Korea is at 602, they had one 5 days back.

Yeah, I think we can safely the cat is out of the bag now.

Gives a slightly more sinister meaning to the term "going viral".

Expect outbreaks near you, wherever the hell you are.

I'll be watching market opening this morning very carefully, although I think the red ink should be visible from a fair way away.

 

[The Atheist]

I saw a theory about kids & covid I found interesting.

We know the MMR vaccine confers other immune benefits, and since most babies are immunised, they have some conferred protection against covid that wears off over the years.

This, it's suggested is why the severity rates get worse as people are further from MMR vaccine or diseases, and also why women are less affected, with many women getting booster MMR during or before pregnancy.

Totally speculation - and I can't find the link again after my main PC died overnight - but sounds plausible.

Given the choice of spending a few useless dollars getting a vaccine I don't need against the chances of it helping, I'll be giving it a shot.

 

[carlosy]

BTW, do we know how long people are infectious with mild symptoms? Could they be infectious even after the symptoms are gone?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I saw a theory about kids & covid I found interesting.

We know the MMR vaccine confers other immune benefits, and since most babies are immunised, they have some conferred protection against covid that wears off over the years.

This, it's suggested is why the severity rates get worse as people are further from MMR vaccine or diseases, and also why women are less affected, with many women getting booster MMR during or before pregnancy.

Totally speculation - and I can't find the link again after my main PC died overnight - but sounds plausible.

Given the choice of spending a few useless dollars getting a vaccine I don't need against the chances of it helping, I'll be giving it a shot.

Got any evidence?

Show that the two viruses are genetically similar, for example.

 

[dann]

It is not unusual that women are less affected by infections than men. According to this article, men tend to be more vulnerable to infections, whereas women are more likely to develop autoimmune diseases: Man flu is real, but women get more autoimmune diseases and allergies (The Conversation, Aug. 6, 2017)

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

BTW, do we know how long people are infectious with mild symptoms? Could they be infectious even after the symptoms are gone?

Couple weeks. People are being tested before being released from quarantine.

 

[carlosy]

Coronavirus incubation period could be 27 days, shows data

The incubation period of the novel coronavirus could be as long as 27 days, noted Reuters citing reports from Chinese provincial government.

In Hubei province, which is hard-hit by the coronavirus epidemic, an infected 70-year-old man did not exhibit symptoms until 27 days later.

On 24 January, the man had close contact with his infected sister, said Hubei government website. He had a fever on 20 February and received test confirmation the next day.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-incubation-period-27-days/