Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[dann]

The virus isn't that dangerous outside the 80+ or already-sick groups, but the sheer numbers will mean health systems will be overwhelmed.

That depends on what you mean when you say not that dangerous:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
80+ years old: 14.8%
70-79 years old: 8.0%
60-69 years old: 3.6%
50-59 years old: 1.3%
(...)
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX:
Male: 2.8%
Female: 1.7%
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths (Worldometer, Feb. 22, 2020)

You are right about pre-existing conditions being very important, but even as a relatively healthy male in the 60-69 age group, I'd still prefer not to get it:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
no pre-existing conditions: 0.9%

The Chinese whistle-blower doctor was 34!

 

[angrysoba]

How is India exempt from these customs?

If Chinese workers can start an outbreak in Iran, why is India exempt?



It was the officials in Japan that supported the false claims by the officials on the Diamond Princess that new cases weren't being transmitted aboard the ship. Someone pressured that Japanese infectious disease expert to retract his video.

Now they are stuck, admit they were wrong or let the passengers out and claim they are disease free.

It's an incredibly ignorant short-sighted POV.

Yes, but it’s not only on the Diamond Princess. On the chartered flights back from China, people were not mandatorily quarantined. Some of the passengers refused and ended up going straight home on public transport.

 

[Myriad]

I've had a nagging allergy-related cough for months. I'd be worried about it, but it really is just phlegm in the back of my throat. My lungs are fine.

But, the cough might soon develop the further side effect of making me unwelcome in public. I should probably get a prescription for a steroid inhaler before that happens.

 

[quadraginta]

Has anyone seen stats on Diamond Princess infections in two person cabins v single person cabins? When one person gets sick how often does the second person get sick and how delayed is it?

I have a feeling it will be a long time, if ever, before we see serious, comprehensive stats, not to mention details about what happened on the Diamond Princess.

And by "if ever" I mean that there are probably more than a few wealthy and powerful interests who would prefer that that entire chapter of this event gets lost (buried?) in the background noise of the follow-up reviews.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

From the WHO's document on medical masks:
https://www.who.int/publications-de...of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

Stating:
A medical mask is not required, as no evidence is
available on its usefulness to protect non-sick persons.
However, masks might be worn in some countries
according to local cultural habits

However, they equivocate elsewhere in the same document. They recommend masks be worn by infected people as well as personnel while in the same room.

Yes, they are concerned shortages from panic buying will prevent availability where needed hence the statement that a medical mask is not required (unless in a room caring for an infected person). But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

I know what the WHO says.

Read my posts on how masks can be partially effective.

The WHO has to preach to the lowest common denominator. You can't explain how masks might help because it's too complicated for those lowest common denominators.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, but it’s not only on the Diamond Princess. On the chartered flights back from China, people were not mandatorily quarantined. Some of the passengers refused and ended up going straight home on public transport.

Oh I know that. Double wammy. Sadly you are going to see an explosion of cases in Japan.

“When supper time came the old cook came on deck /Saying ‘Fellows it’s too rough to feed ya’ /At 7 p.m. a main hatchway caved in /He said, ‘Fellas it's been good to know ya.”

**

Sorry, it just came to mind. I really don't think it's that bad.


**Lightfoot changed the lyrics BTW, apparently it wasn't a hatch that caved in.

 

[sphenisc]

Sweden has had one case, identified on 31 January which is still not resolved. Is there any info on distribution of recovery times?

 

[pipelineaudio]

So for the ones they flew back to the USA, did they quarantine them after? What about all the passengers who didnt know they were in a death coffin? Will they be quarantined too?

Or neither of them?

 

[Roboramma]

How is India exempt from these customs?

If Chinese workers can start an outbreak in Iran, why is India exempt?

It's certainly not. I'm just thinking that, because of the new year, it's possible there has been less travel between China and India than some are expecting. There's certainly some probability of spread to India, just as there was for Iran (I would guess that it's probably higher for India than Iran, and Iran just got unlucky).

My comments explain why we'd expect Singapore to see more cases than India (which is the case), and were not meant to suggest that India is safe. But if one takes the position that because it has shown up in various countries outside of China, you'd expect to see it in India, and thus it's absence is surprising, my comments offer a reason for optimism that it may be the case that it just hasn't shown up there yet.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

So for the ones they flew back to the USA, did they quarantine them after? What about all the passengers who didnt know they were in a death coffin? Will they be quarantined too?

Or neither of them?

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...ll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-21/

Eighteen of the over 300 Americans evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship were infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, according to Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. All of the Americans evacuated from the ship are nearly halfway through a two-week quarantine since returning to the U.S. late Sunday night.

I believe they are tested at regular intervals watching for infection.

Only three of the Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have tested positive for the disease, Messonnier said; one was discharged from a San Diego hospital this week after being declared fully recovered. Hundreds of Americans who were evacuated from Wuhan have completed their quarantine and pose no health threat, she said....

People in California who have recently returned from visiting China are being asked to stay home for the rest of the month to help stop the spread of the new coronavirus, CBS Los Angeles reports. The California Department of Public Health said Friday that 7,600 people have been urged to self-quarantine: stay home, monitor their health and limit interaction with other people.

It's hard to keep track.

I'm going to venture a guess there will be leaks in this plan.

 

[Dr.Sid]

People without symptoms, who tested negative, did infect people next day. 2 weeks seem not to be enough either. Basically to have effective quarantine, you should the people on single rooms for 3 weeks. Nobody is doing that.

 

[pipelineaudio]

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...ll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-21/


I believe they are tested at regular intervals watching for infection.

Did that include the people who were on the plane with them? The ones who didnt know about it until they were already on

 

[The Atheist]

That depends on what you mean when you say not that dangerous:

As in "Not Captain Trips".

No question it's still dangerous - at least several times worse than influenza for harm, but it's neither SARS nor MERS, thankfully.

You are right about pre-existing conditions being very important, but even as a relatively healthy male in the 60-69 age group, I'd still prefer not to get it:

Ditto on all that here!

But I'm much more concerned about

My M-I-L: 84 yo with type II diabetes.
My F-I-L: 85 with existing heart condition.
My best mate: 57 and undergoing six months of chemo.

The Chinese whistle-blower doctor was 34!

Yep, it's going to randomly kill some fit young people too. At least there have been no serious child cases, which is bloody good news.

 

[The Atheist]

Using maths again, I've been working back from the 2-3% death or critical cases to see where it's all at. The Diamond Princess is an excellent case study, because everyone got tested, so the numbers should be good.

S Korea fits the scenario and they've probably found most of the cases from that cluster. Japan, Singapore & HK also fit close to that pattern, so it should be a good way to estimate cases.

On that scale, Italy would be showing 400 cases right now, and they're only at 79, so expect a swift increase in their data.

The markets are going to open a long way down tomorrow is my guess.

 

[The Atheist]

I'm going to venture a guess there will be leaks in this plan.

Like a giant colander is my guess.

The big question is, what are other countries going to do when there's an outbreak.

If they let it go, the health systems will be overwhelmed in no time.

If they shut down cities, the economic costs will be horrendous.

Interesting times.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Did that include the people who were on the plane with them? The ones who didnt know about it until they were already on

Yes, absolutely.

It's people arriving from Wuhan that are being allowed to sit it out at home.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Using maths again, I've been working back from the 2-3% death or critical cases to see where it's all at. The Diamond Princess is an excellent case study, because everyone got tested, so the numbers should be good.

S Korea fits the scenario and they've probably found most of the cases from that cluster. Japan, Singapore & HK also fit close to that pattern, so it should be a good way to estimate cases.

On that scale, Italy would be showing 400 cases right now, and they're only at 79, so expect a swift increase in their data.

The markets are going to open a long way down tomorrow is my guess.

You are assuming the tests are very accurate. They are not.

 

[marting]

I know what the WHO says.

Read my posts on how masks can be partially effective.

The WHO has to preach to the lowest common denominator. You can't explain how masks might help because it's too complicated for those lowest common denominators.

The WHO document is for health care professionals and people working with infected peeps. I wouldn't characterize that as the "Lowest Common Denominator" but I take your point. They are downplaying it to mitigate shortages where masks are critical.

Your comments re mask effectiveness are, I think quite reasonable.

Masks together with proper hand washing, etc. would be prudent. At this point, particularly after the explosion of cases on the Diamond Princess, I'm not sanguine that the virus only spreads in air via droplets where masks are effective. But it seems likely that is at least frequently the case. Hence masks probably offer some protection.

 

[The Atheist]

You are assuming the tests are very accurate. They are not.

Nope, I'm working back from dead and serious/critical cases, which I'd expect to be fairly close to correct.
__________________________________

Meanwhile, expect this graph to go completely exponential from here on:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

I think my prediction of more than tripling this week will be very, very light by next Sunday.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The WHO document is for health care professionals and people working with infected peeps. I wouldn't characterize that as the "Lowest Common Denominator" but I take your point. They are downplaying it to mitigate shortages where masks are critical.

Your comments re mask effectiveness are, I think quite reasonable.

Masks together with proper hand washing, etc. would be prudent. At this point, particularly after the explosion of cases on the Diamond Princess, I'm not sanguine that the virus only spreads in air via droplets where masks are effective. But it seems likely that is at least frequently the case. Hence masks probably offer some protection.

I was talking about masks for the lay public.

I'm an occupational infectious disease practitioner. Why did you post what the WHO says about health care workers using masks?