Why Trump will be reelected

Possible that corona virus will wreck enough of world and U.S. economy prior to election that Trump has to try to deal with it and looks helpless?
 
calebprime said:
Possible that corona virus will wreck enough of world and U.S. economy prior to election that Trump has to try to deal with it and looks helpless?
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I think it more likely he'll take it as a reason to actually lock down the border, ports, and airports from international travel, making his rabid fans wet themselves.
 
Trebuchet said:
Why trump will be reelected
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While I do think Trump has a good shot at winning again, I think there are reasons to be optimistic... (the 'blue wave' in 2018 showing more voter engagement, Trump's inability to significantly increase his approval ratings, the very thin margin of victory he had last time), although I can understand the pessimism.
1. The Democratic Party. Around 90 years ago Will Rodgers said “I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” Still true.
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True, the Democratic primaries are turning out to be a dumpster fire, which seems to be coming down to 1 rich candidate who only became a few years ago, and another who only signs up as a Democrat when he wants to use them for his own political goals. But, the republican party is not that much better. Yes, they are largely supportive of Trump on the surface, but of those often say one thing in public and another in private.
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
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True... Trump does have a high approval rating among Republicans. But part of that is due to the fact that many people have left the party. (Granted, people have also left the Democrats, but not quite as many.)
5. Fox News. They have no shame and will lie about anything to help the Republican party.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
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True, these are problems. But, they were also problems in 2016, and Trump barely manage to win. The problems with fox news and russian interference may not improve, but they may not necessarily get any worse.

Plus, you also have Florida, which granted the right to vote to ex-felons. The Republicans attempted to neuter the law, but the courts smacked them down. Not sure how things will play out, but its possible that when its all played out, the ex-felons will be able to vote in November 2020, which greatly boosts the Democrat's chances to take Florida.
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea. Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
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Impeachment was a mixed bag... Yes, Trump's approval rating crept up afterwards (and he did use it as part of his fundraising). But, it also seems to have helped galvanize those who are opposed to him. (Remember, there were actual polls that showed a majority of people not only wanted Trump impeached, but actually removed from office too.)

There are 2 ways that impeachment may benefit the democrats:

- Even if it doesn't affect the presidential race, it may affect some of the senate races. I'm thinking of people like Susan Collins, who is struggling in the polls following her vote to confirm Drunky McRapeface.... voting against impeachment (especially with her famous "He learned a lesson... oops no he didn't") may cause her further problems at the polls.

- Trump's response to the impeachment (his efforts to "get revenge") may make some people turn against him.

The other thing to keep in mind that even if impeachment didn't help the democrats (or even hurts them), that doesn't mean that impeachment was the wrong thing to do... its possible that a failure to impeach may have ended up worse for the Democrats (since it might make them seem weak/ineffectual.)
8. Prejudice....
9. Gullibility...
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Again, I'm not suggesting these aren't problems... but as I mentioned before, they were a factor in 2016 too, and Trump barely won... I don't think the problems have necessarily gotten worse (simply because they were so bad before.)
 
Upchurch said:
11. Donald Trump has been president for three years, and nothing really bad has happened to me.
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FIFY.
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Yes, people are often concerned how things affect them personally.

That could harm Trump. While many people may not have been harmed by his president (i.e. they don't care about him locking kids in cages, or praising Neonazis because it doesn't affect them personally), some people have been harmed... manufacturing is in a recession, millions of people who used to have health care don't anymore. Trump may brag about the economy, but not everyone has benefited. Some of those people that were harmed were former Trump voters. They may not vote for him a second time.
 
Upchurch said:
I think it more likely he'll take it as a reason to actually lock down the border, ports, and airports from international travel, making his rabid fans wet themselves.
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The whole "Parasite" fuss is unimportant in itself, but shows that Xenophobia is a major part of his appeal.
Of course Trump doing what you say would probably send the US economy into a tailspin, but then Trump is good at convicing his followers to vote agains their own best ecnomic interests.
 
Segnosaur said:
That could harm Trump. While many people may not have been harmed by his president (i.e. they don't care about him locking kids in cages, or praising Neonazis because it doesn't affect them personally), some people have been harmed... manufacturing is in a recession, millions of people who used to have health care don't anymore. Trump may brag about the economy, but not everyone has benefited. Some of those people that were harmed were former Trump voters. They may not vote for him a second time.
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Like the woman in Florida last year who complained that the government shutdown was hurting her and her neighbors instead of "the people he needs to be hurting".

A prison employee in Florida who voted for President Trump argued that Trump is to blame for the current government shutdown.

“I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” Crystal Minton told The New York Times in an article published Monday. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.”
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I think we're up to...

12. From my sig: "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."

Which is different than gullibility. Gullibility is being fooled by Trump in the first place. Refusing to admit to being fooled and, thus, learning from one's mistake is the sunk-cost fallacy.


side note: this wikipedia page popped up as I was reminding myself of the name of the fallacy. Kind of an interesting read.
 
Upchurch said:
But that wouldn't be true. Who would it be better for?
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Are you better off now than you were four years ago?


If you can convince an awful lot of people that the answer is no, a Democrat has a chance of winning. It's a tough sell right now.
 
Former Goldman Sachs CEO and lifelong Democrat Lloyd Blankfein told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday that he could have an easier time voting to reelect President Donald Trump than for Sen. Bernie Sanders, should the latter secure the Democratic nomination for president.




Sanders replied: I welcome the hatred of the crooks who destroyed our economy.


:dl:
 
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There are good arguments both ways:

1. Unless something new and worse comes out soon, just about everything horrible thing you could throw at a President has come out:

-He is dangerously mentally ill!
-He has been accused of sexual assault!
-He worked with the Russians!
-He was impeached!

Not much has changed in support/approval.

2. That support/approval would be considered pretty frickin’ bad in any other President. There’s no way he should get re-elected.

Prediction is impossible in this strange new political world we inhabit.
 
I'm not going to make absolute statements because Trump, and I feel this is something we most all agree on, is not a factor put into an equation that makes getting the answer easier.

But I'm stealing myself for a Trump win in a few months because I think it's fairly likely. If you put a gun to my head and demanded odds I'd say at least 75%. I'll put the "Unless things change between now and November" modifier in there just for intellectual completeness, but feet to the fire I couldn't even make a guess as to what could happen between now and November that would make a difference. Outside chance of a major economic crisis, maybe that could really shift the numbers but it would have to come on quick to make a difference at this point.

My reasons?

- Everything said about why Trump won't get reelected was true the day before he got elected last time.
- He's had more time to cheat, rig things, and build up support behind the scenes.
- He's gonna be more desperate this time because he knows damn well if he loses there's a good chance he's looking at prison.
- All the Democrats plan are dependent on some invisible wave of non-detectable hypothetical voters just appearing at the polls, all from the Demographics least likely to vote.
- He's the best President ever in the sense that he has done what he was promised he would do and what he was elected to do then every other President in history combined. No President has lead the Executive Branch, commanded the Armed Forces, or represented the United States as well as Trump has trolled the Left. And make no mistake that is what he was elected to do. Trump won 2020 an hour into election night 2016 when the first video of a crying college liberal with pink hair and a "Gender is Fluid" t-shirt was broadcast on CNN.
- The Democrats are playing "3 Dimensional Chess, thinking 8 moves ahead" against someone who's playing "I flipped the board over half an hour ago and now I'm in the next room banging the Chess Competition Judge."
- The Democrats are playing Cause Purity elimination tests while the Republicans are fine having an serial adulterous man child who bangs porn stars and the Evangelicals on their side because they understand having more people on your team counts more then having a coherent philosophy.
- The Democrats just keep (rightfully) accusing Trump of things that they would be ashamed of and expect Trump to react like they would. "You're a racist, you're a sexist, you're homophobic, you're a hypocrite, you're xenophobic..." Yeah he already knows and doesn't care, those are features, not bugs.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
- He's the best President ever in the sense that he has done what he was promised he would do and what he was elected to do then every other President in history combined. No President has lead the Executive Branch, commanded the Armed Forces, or represented the United States as well as Trump has trolled the Left. And make no mistake that is what he was elected to do. They will elect him again if they think he can keep doing it and, spoiler, he can.
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applecorped said:
lol, we need more cheese here
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I rest my case.
 
Meadmaker said:
Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
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Better off how? I already pointed out that I've lost money to Trump's idiocy. Trump's FCC appointee, Ajit Pai, threatened my professional livelihood with the near-removal of network neutrality. I have several friends and family with children who are, so far, cancer survivors. Trump's continued efforts to remove pre-existing conditions protection would likely devastate their futures. And none of this includes the more general crap Trump has done to the country that I mentioned above.

So, no. I am not particularly better off than I was 4 years ago.
 
dudalb said:
Sadly we have a couple of the toxic variety here.
They seem to loath "Centrists" or "Moderates" (I have been insulted by them over this) not seeming to get that the Dems need the votes of the centrists and moderates to win in November.
I also think that Some Bernie Bros are a lot more radical then Bernie himself;I notice some advocate policies that are lot more extreme then anything that Sanders himself has advocated.
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loathing or criticism?

The latter is often interpreted as the former when it comes to those uppity progressives!
 
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