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Cont: House Impeachment Inquiry - part 3

The hope remains that the continuing drips and drabs of the whole sordid affair continue to come out in books, candid video or recordings and that some of the slow-moving lawsuits and requests still moving forward will payoff before the election. For every leak or lead that surfaces there are reporters ready to follow this story and the truth will come out. It won't look good for anyone who refused to allow testimony or obtain documents at that point.

The dems never had the votes for removal but they played their best possible hand and they've positioned themselves to make some hay if the sun shines before election time.
 
Some big, unexpected thing is going to happen. A game changer. This is solely a hunch.

Not quite a deux ex machina but something in that neighborhood.

Trump is not going to come out of this smelling like a rose.
 
Plus, is it clear that the Democrats will be better able to unify behind their candidate better than 2016?
No guarantee. But, I think the Democrats will benefit from some left-leaning voters going to the polls in 2020 after they sat out in 2016 because they thought "how bad could it get". Well now they know just how bad Trump can get.

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If I'm a Trump supporter I'm, maybe not 'worried' about 2020, but I'm definitely concerned. In addition to what Craig4 pointed out, after losing the 2016 popular vote by 2.9 million votes, Donnie only gets in by virtue of the electoral college, winning two states by less than 200,000 votes. His margin is 200,000 voters out of the almost 137 million people who cast votes. That's beyond razor thin.

Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:
 
No guarantee. But, I think the Democrats will benefit from some left-leaning voters going to the polls in 2020 after they sat out in 2016 because they thought "how bad could it get". Well now they know just how bad Trump can get.

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I feel that too.
Motivating Dems, and leftish leaning Independants, is not something that needs to be worried about too much this time around. The Trumpsters have motivated us as much as it is possible to IMO.
 
If I'm a Trump supporter I'm, maybe not 'worried' about 2020, but I'm definitely concerned. In addition to what Craig4 pointed out, after losing the 2016 popular vote by 2.9 million votes, Donnie only gets in by virtue of the electoral college, winning two states by less than 200,000 votes. His margin is 200,000 voters out of the almost 137 million people who cast votes. That's beyond razor thin.

Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:
He cannot if the Dems run anyone who is even mildly acceptable to right leaning Independants in MI, PA, OH, and WI.

If we run someone who has self identified as "Socialist", we have a much tougher row to hoe.
 
Marco Rubio's mind-boggling statement on why he will vote against removing Trump from office:


https://medium.com/@SenatorMarcoRubio/my-statement-on-the-presidents-impeachment-trial-9669e82ccb43


The remedy for a president who abuses his office or commits illegal acts is to be removed from office by the voters, even if his abuse or illegality is designed to ensure that he isn't voted out of office??? If the president tries to go too far, he can be restrained by Congress, even though Congress is currently refusing to restrain Trump from doing what even Rubio admits is abuse of his office???

So his argument is that impeachment should never be used or is redundant?

51-49, no witnesses.

Sounds like something a mobster would say. :eek:

Time to take up arms against this tyrannical government.

You first.
 
Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:

That's the problem. Trump doesn't have supporters. He has people who make any excuses for him so they can keep watching the chaos he's making.

All other factors being equal, Trump will win if if people think the next 4 years will be as dramatic as the last, but the drama is, in a very real sense, the point.

A good chunk, perhaps the biggest chunk, of his base isn't voting for Trump. They are voting on 4 more years of "those sissy uppity latte sipping Dems with their fancy book learning who think they can tell me I'm wrong about stuff just because they know more then me" having steam coming out of their ears and being triggered.

The hope remains that the continuing drips and drabs of the whole sordid affair continue to come out in books, candid video or recordings and that some of the slow-moving lawsuits and requests still moving forward will payoff before the election.

If that was going to happen it would have happened by now. Trump's been a nonstop "Lookit at what he did now" machine since before the primaries and his approval numbers have stayed amazingly consistent. 40-45% of people love him (or love the idea of him) and 55-60% hate him. Nothing seems to be able to make that number move.

Yes the possibility is there, 2016 was a game of inches and 2020 isn't like a total lost cause or anything. And yes actually going to the voting booth and voting for Trump is a moment that we can't fully predict.

Hopefully in 2020 the Trumpers will think the joke is no longer funny.
 
If I'm a Trump supporter I'm, maybe not 'worried' about 2020, but I'm definitely concerned. In addition to what Craig4 pointed out, after losing the 2016 popular vote by 2.9 million votes, Donnie only gets in by virtue of the electoral college, winning two states by less than 200,000 votes. His margin is 200,000 voters out of the almost 137 million people who cast votes. That's beyond razor thin.

Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:

Exactly.

What I find interesting is all the prognosticators who predict a backlash against the Democrats because the Republicans suffered one from Clinton's impeachment. The public knew what that impeachment was about and they know what this impeachment is about.

That impeachment was a sham and so was this one. But in both cases, it was the Republicans that made them shams. People know that and if they don't, they will.

If Trump and the GOP wins it won't be because of the impeachment, it will be because of other reasons.

Everyone focuses on Trump's insane supporters who ignore every lie and every outrageous thing he does. We're stunned by it. We forget that Trump couldn't afford to lose a single point in 2 states or that the Democrats gain a single point. Trump is a galvanizing political candidate. For every exuberant supporter there is someone, Republicans even will vote to throw this bum out.

How many Democrats stayed home 3 years ago because we believed Hillary's victory was a done deal? Do we think people will repeat this?

I can't say I'm optimistic of Trump's defeat come November. But I'm also not pessimistic.
 
Let's pretend that he were impeached... would he then be able to run for the 2020 election?

I don't want this guy for president any way but I'm curious about how that works.
Even if Trump were convicted and removed from office, it would be up to the Senate to include banning him from holding the office again.
This would be a question put to the Senate at the time of Removal. They would have the option to also include a Ban for life, so merely being removed would not prevent re-election, but the Senate could add that stipulation to the Removal.
Unless criminal (Felony) charges are brought against him and he's convicted of those charges, yes he could run again. But I'm sure Pence would pardon him. but that is a short time frame between now and November. Or the Senate could ban him from ever running again.

From the Constitution:

"Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; . . . ."

I always thought that this meant that the judgment would be removal from office and disqualification from any other office, ever. But a close reading of "shall not extend further" seems to allow removal but not disqualification, or both. I haven't seen anything that discusses previous precedence about this.

Anyway, he won't be convicted, so it's moot.



For now.
 
I think that the Democrats played this poorly. I’ve said that all along.

While I agree that withholding military aid for a Biden investigation was bad, and against the law, it was far from the best charge to base impeachment upon. It was too easily muddied by the alleged Biden/Burisma/corruption connection.

This is silly. The only way the Biden/Burisma/"corruption connection" convinced people is if they were willfully ignorant. People make up their minds first, and then find a rationale later. There are Foxbots who actually believe that Trump was impeached for doing what Biden got away with: The then-VP threatened that aid would be withheld if Ukraine did not fire a corrupt prosecutor. This can fairly be described as a quid pro quo. This can fairly be described as a pressure campaign against Ukrainian leadership. It's ridiculous to believe that this occurred at the behest of Biden's crackhead son.
 
Ginsburg holding out for a few more months and miracle in either the Presidential or Senatorial races in 2020 are our last hope pretty much.
While our election financing is a mess, the short term emergency clamors for donating as much money as you can to those Senate races that have some chance of flipping Repub to Dem, as well as those that might flip Dem to Repub (er, that is, donate the money to the Dems in both cases).
 
If I'm a Trump supporter I'm, maybe not 'worried' about 2020, but I'm definitely concerned. In addition to what Craig4 pointed out, after losing the 2016 popular vote by 2.9 million votes, Donnie only gets in by virtue of the electoral college, winning two states by less than 200,000 votes. His margin is 200,000 voters out of the almost 137 million people who cast votes. That's beyond razor thin.

Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:
If I may, that is a misleading statistical comparison. The margin should be measured by 200,000 votes out of all those cast in that state, not the 137 million who cast votes nationwide.
 
Point taken. But there were 137 million votes cast nationwide and Trump won the electoral college by virtue of 200,000 of those votes in two states. That's cutting it pretty close.
 
From the Constitution:

"Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; . . . ."

I always thought that this meant that the judgment would be removal from office and disqualification from any other office, ever. But a close reading of "shall not extend further" seems to allow removal but not disqualification, or both. I haven't seen anything that discusses previous precedence about this.

Anyway, he won't be convicted, so it's moot.



For now.

It DEFINITELY allows disqualification from holding any Federal office. But the Senate must vote 1 to convict and 2 the additional measure of disqualification. It may not extend or enforce any other penalties.
 
Point taken. But there were 137 million votes cast nationwide and Trump won the electoral college by virtue of 200,000 of those votes in two states. That's cutting it pretty close.

I don't think Trump has a chance in hell in winning nationally, but I do worry about Trump repeating his victory because of the state by state numbers.

I'm tempted to move to Wisconsin just so I can vote against Trump there. The problem is I use to live in Wisconsin.
 
I got into a rare political discussion yesterday. It's rare, because people have become so afraid of discussing politics in the Trump era that it has become even more taboo than it was a decade ago. I haven't heard a single opinion voiced about impeaching the president outside of media (social included). People just don't talk about it anymore.

There were a handful of adults, and one teenager, involved in the discussion. That's probably why it started in the first place. The teenager asked a question about how the electoral college worked, and who had elected Trump. (She had the impression the people had elected Hilary, but that the electoral college stepped in and voted for Trump. Well, uh,...…….kind of a little bit, but......this girl is an honor student at one of our fine institutes of public education.)

Anyway, none of us were hyperpartisans, but the one thing that all of us 40-60 year olds agreed upon was that the world had become so much more partisan since our youth. I related that when I was in college, a friend of mine became the Democratic nominee for a congressional seat. We lived in a safe Republican district, and no real politician ran for it. In doing campaign research, we had a book where various special interest groups posted their approval ratings of incumbent Congressmen. e.g. Certain groups would track how their representatives voted on key votes, and give them a rating one way or another. One congressman might get a 60% from some farm group, or an 80& from the teachers' union, or a 0% from the NRA.

Today, such a book would be practically useless. Most congressmen would be scoring close to 100% or close to 0%, because practically every vote is very close to a straight party line vote.

I think that is the worst element of our political system today, and while partisanship has been present since the beginning, it really is worse now.

With respect to impeachment, I can guarantee you that there are Democrats in congress who don't think that Trump's actions warranted impeachment, and there are Republicans who think that they did. And yet, only a couple of Representatives crossed the line on the vote to impeach, and no Senators are expected to cross the lines when the vote is taken on Wednesday. Mitt Romney is being punished merely for crossing the line on a procedural vote.

It's a problem. Mitch and Nancy aren't supposed to have that kind of power, but they do. And when casting a vote for the senate or the house, voters are supposed to evaluate the people and their positions, not merely whether there's a D or an R after their name.

I don't have any solutions, but I really think it's a problem.
 
With respect to impeachment, I can guarantee you that there are Democrats in congress who don't think that Trump's actions warranted impeachment, and there are Republicans who think that they did.

I question this. When you take away partisanship, what argument is there for keeping Trump in office?
 
If I'm a Trump supporter I'm, maybe not 'worried' about 2020, but I'm definitely concerned. In addition to what Craig4 pointed out, after losing the 2016 popular vote by 2.9 million votes, Donnie only gets in by virtue of the electoral college, winning two states by less than 200,000 votes. His margin is 200,000 voters out of the almost 137 million people who cast votes. That's beyond razor thin.

Can he do it again? Has he gained in popularity? If I'm a Trump supporter my answer would be: I don't know. :confused:

If the Democrats don't do a better job exposing his false claims of accomplishments he might.

For example: TRUMP REIGNITES CLAIM MEXICO WILL BE PAYING FOR HIS BORDER WALL: 'SOON YOU WILL FIND OUT'
 
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I got into a rare political discussion yesterday. It's rare, because people have become so afraid of discussing politics in the Trump era that it has become even more taboo than it was a decade ago. I haven't heard a single opinion voiced about impeaching the president outside of media (social included). People just don't talk about it anymore.

There were a handful of adults, and one teenager, involved in the discussion. That's probably why it started in the first place. The teenager asked a question about how the electoral college worked, and who had elected Trump. (She had the impression the people had elected Hilary, but that the electoral college stepped in and voted for Trump. Well, uh,...…….kind of a little bit, but......this girl is an honor student at one of our fine institutes of public education.)

Anyway, none of us were hyperpartisans, but the one thing that all of us 40-60 year olds agreed upon was that the world had become so much more partisan since our youth. I related that when I was in college, a friend of mine became the Democratic nominee for a congressional seat. We lived in a safe Republican district, and no real politician ran for it. In doing campaign research, we had a book where various special interest groups posted their approval ratings of incumbent Congressmen. e.g. Certain groups would track how their representatives voted on key votes, and give them a rating one way or another. One congressman might get a 60% from some farm group, or an 80& from the teachers' union, or a 0% from the NRA.

Today, such a book would be practically useless. Most congressmen would be scoring close to 100% or close to 0%, because practically every vote is very close to a straight party line vote.

I think that is the worst element of our political system today, and while partisanship has been present since the beginning, it really is worse now.

With respect to impeachment, I can guarantee you that there are Democrats in congress who don't think that Trump's actions warranted impeachment, and there are Republicans who think that they did. And yet, only a couple of Representatives crossed the line on the vote to impeach, and no Senators are expected to cross the lines when the vote is taken on Wednesday. Mitt Romney is being punished merely for crossing the line on a procedural vote.

It's a problem. Mitch and Nancy aren't supposed to have that kind of power, but they do. And when casting a vote for the senate or the house, voters are supposed to evaluate the people and their positions, not merely whether there's a D or an R after their name.

I don't have any solutions, but I really think it's a problem.

How did things come to this state? Can it be fixed? I was a teenager during the first Clinton term, and that's when I first became aware of politics. In the era of Rush Limbaugh's first blush of fame. Things were already pretty grim for nonpartisanship then, and that was the early 90s.
 

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