Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[3point14]

The Times fired Johnson for lying, it was the Telegraph that saw that happen and decided it was what they wanted in a Europe correspondent.

Fair point, I stand corrected.

 

[lomiller]

There are only two possible ways to take "no deal" off the table forever.

1. Vote for a deal the EU is prepared to accept.
2. Give up Brexit completely and remain.

3. Revoke article 50 and resubmit it again where there is a deal on the table that actually has popular support. IOW do what the Brexit campaign promised in the first place.

This will end up as #2 because no such deal is possible, but that's another issue.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Fair point, I stand corrected.

That's okay, I'm always glad to have the opportunity to remind people that our serial adulterer Prime Minister has been fired for lying twice.

 

[dudalb]

Amazed that Labor has agreed to this.
If Labor suffers a defeat, I hope that is the end of Corbyn as Party Leader, since it will be definent proof that he is just plain incompetent.

 

[SezMe]

Darat is suggesting that the SNP would support the Conservatives' request for a general election if the Conservatives would in turn allow the SNP a second independence referendum.

Under the UK governing system, does a party like SNP need Conservative permission to hold a national referendum?

 

[SezMe]

Jeremy Corbyn, his inner circle, Momentum and the unions have been drinking their own Kool Aid. IMO they are deluded and are going to lose, very badly.

I hope you'll still have patience with all the questions. What/Who is that?

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

I hope you'll still have patience with all the questions. What/Who is that?

Momentum is a grassroots organization supporting Corbyn and Labour Party. It is like a left Tea Party.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Under the UK governing system, does a party like SNP need Conservative permission to hold a national referendum?

Theoretically, they could have one on their own (and some advocate for that), but reasonably speaking (and the position of the SNP leadership), if they want it to be taken as legally binding they need a section 30 order from Westminster. May denied it in 2017.

 

[McHrozni]

Momentum is a grassroots organization supporting Corbyn and Labour Party. It is like a left Tea Party.

You aren't kidding. These guys are so far out they opposed fighting ISIS, because it wouldn't increase British national security.

Momentum called for its membership to lobby Labour MPs "to support Corbyn, not Cameron, over Syria" on Twitter, linking to the Stop the War Coalition's Don't Bomb Syria campaign which opposed the Conservative government's proposal to extend its bombing sorties against Daesh (also known as ISIS) from Daesh-held territory in Iraq to also cover Daesh-held territory in Syria

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

3. Revoke article 50 and resubmit it again where there is a deal on the table that actually has popular support. IOW do what the Brexit campaign promised in the first place.

This will end up as #2 because no such deal is possible, but that's another issue.

Revocation of article 50 must be done in good faith. UK explicitly can't revoke A50 with hopes of getting a better deal. It doesn't matter that no such deal is possible, UK can't even attempt it.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Amazed that Labor has agreed to this.

He genuinely thinks that his Brexit-supporting, left wing (re-nationalisation and forcing business owners to transfer ownership of their business to the workers) agenda is going to prove popular.

I think he has grossly misread the situation (a usual) and that ardent Labour Brexiteers in a handful of Northern constituencies will switch to Conservatives/Brexit and moderate Labour supporters like myself will find ourselves unable to vote Labour.

He thinks that because he didn't lose badly to Theresa May that he'll be able to beat Boris Johnson. IMO that is a bad miscalculation, the BoJo character is very popular and that alone will be enough to get the Conservatives across the line. Add on a selection of "loony left" policies that, even if they are actually in the public good can be easily misrepresented by the press and it's a recipe for disaster IMO.

If Labor suffers a defeat, I hope that is the end of Corbyn as Party Leader, since it will be definent proof that he is just plain incompetent.

Scant comfort when we'll have at least 5 years of a Conservative government desperately signing up to any trade deal no matter how bad, dismantling the NHS, stripping workers of their rights and abandoning any pretence at protecting the environment.

 

[The Don]

Momentum is a grassroots organization supporting Corbyn and Labour Party. It is like a left Tea Party.

Exactly, and it's Militant v2.0. Militant almost destroyed the Labour Party as an electable party in the 1980s. It was a lot of heavy lifting to turn the party around in the 90's, but it seems that Labour's self destructive tendencies are just baked in.

 

[McHrozni]

He genuinely thinks that his Brexit-supporting, left wing (re-nationalisation and forcing business owners to transfer ownership of their business to the workers) agenda is going to prove popular.

Thanks to FPTP it doesn't even need to be popular. It just needs to be less unpopular than the radical rightist narrative of the Tories in enough constituencies to give Labour a majority.

Plus you really should swap the verb "to think" with "to believe" or something of that nature. There is no pattern consistent with thought involved in forming those positions.

McHrozni

 

[Pixel42]

I've started looking at retirement villages in Ireland.

 

[The Don]

The "Brexit Bonus" is actually -£70bn a year

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU, a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found.

It concluded that GDP would be 3.5% lower in 10 years' time under the deal.

The independent forecaster's outlook is one of the first assessments of how the economy will fare under the new deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50219036

That puts the net contributions to the EU in some kind of context. Because it's an impact on the size of the economy, that figure will only grow over time.

Boris Johnson's deal is slightly worse than Theresa May's deal from an economic perspective:

The report also found the proposed free trade deal with the EU was slightly worse for the economy than Theresa May's deal of last year.

Then again, the Brexit process has already cost the UK economy several times the cost of EU membership

According to NIESR, the effects of Brexit on the UK economy are already being felt.

"The economy is estimated to be 2.5% smaller now than it would otherwise have been as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote," it said.

With UK GDP at £2.11tr, that puts the annual cost of Brexit at £50bn, the £70bn will be on top of that which means by 2030, the annual cost of Brexit will be £120bn.

 

[Nessie]

Under the UK governing system, does a party like SNP need Conservative permission to hold a national referendum?

It is not a party decision as you post suggests. The Scottish Parliament needs ratification from the Westminster Parliament for a referendum to be considered official, as in Westminster would accept the result.

 

[McHrozni]

With UK GDP at £2.11tr, that puts the annual cost of Brexit at £50bn, the £70bn will be on top of that which means by 2030, the annual cost of Brexit will be £120bn.

This should be put on the side of every bus in the UK and mentioned every time BJ appears at a press conference.

Brexit will cost us 2,264 million pounds a week. How do you intend to pay for the expense? Shouldn't we give that money to NHS instead?

It's a reasonable question to ask, surely. I mean, with an extra budget of that size the NHS can probably solve all it's outstanding issues and begin delivering patented designer drugs within a decade or two, generating even more revenue in the process.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Under the UK governing system, does a party like SNP need Conservative permission to hold a national referendum?

It doesn't need permission to hold the referendum but it needs agreement from the UK Government for it to mean anything to them.

There is a lot of talk of an 'illegal referendum' but any government can hold a referendum on any topic. The question is to what extent the result of that referendum would be recognised by others.

Of course, Scotland has the powers to declare independence anyway. As any people have. The question is the legitimacy of the process in the eyes of the people, the extent to which it will be recognised by others and the mess created getting there.

I don't think anyone wants to see a situation where its a messy divorce and Scotland/England relations are soured in perpetuity.

I think current SNP thinking is that while the Tories will bluster and bluster if the SNP returned pretty much 100% of Westminster Scottish MPs (as could be the case) then that will be taken seriously by the Government as a sign they need to hold the referendum. Of course, they won't hold a referendum that they think they might lose so it become a bit of a deadlock.

My own view is that they will have to at the very least run their own referendum in 2020 and even if it isn't the trigger for a UDI declaration (in the event of a YES win) then it will be more leverage for a confirmatory referendum later and possibly the start of discussions on independence with the government.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Exactly, and it's Militant v2.0. Militant almost destroyed the Labour Party as an electable party in the 1980s. It was a lot of heavy lifting to turn the party around in the 90's, but it seems that Labour's self destructive tendencies are just baked in.

You mean turn the party into the Tories in the 90s?

I think a lot of people just possibly think its better to have a party represent their ideas, even in opposition, than have a party get elected representing someone else's ideas?

 

[Nessie]

One of the reasons the Tories are likely to be the largest single party is the huge loss of Labour seats in Scotland to the SNP. Labour previously had about 50 guaranteed Scottish MPs.