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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

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Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Well, this is heartening, anyway:
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This is my position.
All the talk of large Tory majorities (or any, frankly) just leave me with the question "from where?".

They will be wiped out in Scotland (at least, all but).

They will lose seats to the Lib Dems.
Quite a few.

So where are the seats going to come from?
 
Nessie said:
I think he means no deal is off the table between now and an election, not forever off the table.
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There are only two possible ways to take "no deal" off the table forever.

1. Vote for a deal the EU is prepared to accept.
2. Give up Brexit completely and remain.

At the moment, Labour doesn't support either of those approaches without caveats. Their position, if I understand it correctly, is that Labour:

  • Should win a majority
  • Will then renegotiate the deal with the EU to make it softer
  • And will then have a referendum where they intend to advise voters to vote against the deal they've just negotiated and instead back remain
It doesn't seem a very logical position. I doubt whether they'll get a majority - something extraordinary would have to happen between now and December. Then, if Labour did win, the EU would have no incentive to renegotiate in good faith - the EU would want the deal on offer to be as bad as possible to maximize the chance of a remain vote. The public, or at least the small sample of people I've spoken to, seem confused by the policy, or when they do understand the policy fully, they are then contemptuous of it.
 
Tolls said:
This is my position.
All the talk of large Tory majorities (or any, frankly) just leave me with the question "from where?".

They will be wiped out in Scotland (at least, all but).

They will lose seats to the Lib Dems.
Quite a few.

So where are the seats going to come from?
Click to expand...

I think that tens of Labour MPs will lose their seats as Remain voters (like me) vote for (ultimately unsuccessful) LibDem or Green candidates leaving the Conservatives to pick up the seat. A few others will see Brexit-supporting working class voters switching their allegiance to the Conservatives.
 
ceptimus said:
Their position, if I understand it correctly, is that Labour:

  • Should win a majority
  • Will then renegotiate the deal with the EU to make it softer
  • And will then have a referendum where they intend to advise voters to vote against the deal they've just negotiated and instead back remain
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You don't understand correctly. The position, as laid out and voted for at their conference is to negotiate the best deal they can with the EU. Once that deal is in place they will then they will decide based on what the deal actually is whether or not to back it or remain at a second referendum.

I know it's an easy position to ridicule, but it's actually sensible. It's saying that they want to be informed as to what the various positions are before deciding which one of them they think is best.

It shows what our politics has come to that that seems like the crazy position, and making such an important decision based on zero information is considered the proper way to go about things.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Gives everybody an out, and allows them to pin the blame on the government.
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Won't wash. If the opposition try to bring in constitutional changes to the election that will take months to implement, the public will know that it's the opposition that have delayed things again - not the government.

The right way to change the voting franchise is to put your proposals in your manifesto, then win power and implement those proposals. Attempting to introduce changes by amendment at the last moment when time is already tight, is a transparent delaying tactic.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
You don't understand correctly. The position, as laid out and voted for at their conference is to negotiate the best deal they can with the EU. Once that deal is in place they will then they will decide based on what the deal actually is whether or not to back it or remain at a second referendum.
Click to expand...
A number of Labour luminaries - the Shadow Foreign Secretary, the Shadow Chancellor, and so on, have ALREADY, stated that they intend to back remain and not their own renegotiated deal. Corbyn is sitting on the fence, as usual.
 
Tolls said:
This is my position.
All the talk of large Tory majorities (or any, frankly) just leave me with the question "from where?".

They will be wiped out in Scotland (at least, all but).

They will lose seats to the Lib Dems.
Quite a few.

So where are the seats going to come from?
Click to expand...

Well, at the moment the Tories are way ahead of the polls. I'm not sure that anybody has done the per-constituency analysis to see whether that will really translate into a majority of seats, but it's certainly worrying. And, to be frank, most of the "oh, don't worry about it, it'll be fine" commentary I've seen has smacked of the same kind of false confidence as that of those who said the same about Trump becoming president.

This particular article is different, because it's an actual election expert who has done the sums. And it's worth pointing out that he doesn't go as far as to say that the Tories are unlikely to get a majority, just that it may be difficult.
 
ceptimus said:
A number of Labour luminaries - the Shadow Foreign Secretary, the Shadow Chancellor, and so on, have ALREADY, stated that they intend to back remain and not their own renegotiated deal. Corbyn is sitting on the fence, as usual.
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What some Labour politicians say is not the same thing as what the official position of the Labour party is. You were claiming to be presenting the latter. You were not.
 
ohms said:
Been seeing some comments by political commentators on Twitter that amendments to lower voting age and include EU nationals are unlikely to be selected as they are outside the scope of the bill, which is about election timing. We will see...
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I'd be staggered if they're selected and even more staggered if they then passed.
 
McHrozni said:
The way you kill an idea is to give it wings and let it fry on the Sun.

The results may be worse than the cure, but sometimes it's the only way.

McHrozni
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Which is pretty much what people were saying in 2016 when Trump was elected. Four years of Trump and everyone would see the light, yeah that's worked so well...
 
ohms said:
Looks like 16/17 yrs old and EU citizens not selected by the deputy speaker

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1189229600427171840



Tories may still pull the Bill if Dec 9th amendment passes.
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1189228590954627074

Here's the latest on the amendments on extending franchise:

Clerks advised they should not be selected. Lindsay Hoyle expected to accept their advice

BUT

They will almost certainly be tabled in the Lords tomorrow, where the Speaker does not select amendments...
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Ah the Lords, they haven't had a chance to stick their oar in lately and they may prove something of an obstacle.

As an aside I saw The Times had a headline on its front page about how Aspirin can combat depression, right next to a big picture of Boris...
 
Garrison said:
Ah the Lords, they haven't had a chance to stick their oar in lately and they may prove something of an obstacle.

As an aside I saw The Times had a headline on its front page about how Aspirin can combat depression, right next to a big picture of Boris...
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No mention of the extensive lies they paid him to tell?
 
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