Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Nessie]

And why no deal is the only possible way out of this.

No deal is not a way out. It just pushes negotiations into a whole world of unknowns with the UK out of the EU.

Whilst in the EU, business, travellers and residents know what the rules are and negotiations can continue with less effect on them.

 

[Ian Osborne]

unless there's going to be a new version of pigs in blankets post-Brexit - maybe turnips wrapped in cabbage - lack of culinary experience may not be the only issue.

As a vegetarian, I fully intend to give this a try.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Oh I agree, they won't work together - they will do their best to frustrate each other's Brexit plans but equally neither will do anything to prevent Brexit - including making moves to ensure that a no-deal is no longer the default.

I think no-deal is only a part of the Conservative subset of possible Brexits - possibly the majority choice among them - and has nothing to do with the Labour subset, so Labour will fight to the death to prevent it even more than if it were just any other Conservative policy. The big worry is that, if they actually fight to the death, specifically of the Labour party, who will replace them, and what will that party's stance be?

Dave

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

More than some people have, or want to apply. From personal experience I can say 60 pigs in blankets is quite a faff.

Then again Greggs has been stockpiling ingredients including sausage meat so unless there's going to be a new version of pigs in blankets post-Brexit - maybe turnips wrapped in cabbage - lack of culinary experience may not be the only issue.

Wait.... I've lived in the UK for a bit. Gregg's sausage rolls contain meat?
Could have fooled me.

 

[The Don]

Wait.... I've lived in the UK for a bit. Gregg's sausage rolls contain meat?
Could have fooled me.

Yes they do, maybe not a specific part of a named animal, but they're certainly not vegetarian

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1188824161193529349

NEW: I'm told that Labour's shadow cabinet:
- agreed to ABSTAIN on election vote under FTPA tonight
- recognise a single line bill is likely to PASS anyway with Tory/ SNP/ LD support
- believe Labour MPs "aren't in a good place" on GE and will refuse to vote for it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1188822382829592576

No chance of Labour changing its vote today, as its MPs are all on a 1 line whip and wouldn't get to London in time. But I hear Shadow Cabinet is now giving serious thought to backing a general election tomorrow. Source: "We're pretty snookered".

So it's looking like the 9th, and like the Tories will probably gain a majority.

 

[The Don]

I think no-deal is only a part of the Conservative subset of possible Brexits - possibly the majority choice among them - and has nothing to do with the Labour subset, so Labour will fight to the death to prevent it even more than if it were just any other Conservative policy. The big worry is that, if they actually fight to the death, specifically of the Labour party, who will replace them, and what will that party's stance be?

Dave

Under Labour, a no deal Brexit would still be the default outcome because the only alternative outcome, no Brexit, isn't acceptable to them.

It's the default outcome I fear because sooner or later the EU will refuse to allow yet another extension.

 

[ceptimus]

No deal Brexit is the legal default. BoJo does not have to "push anything through", he simply has to stall long enough that the default happens. Parliament is not having that. This is not rocket magic.

Yeah but everyone already knows that no deal Brexit is "off the table" until at least January 31st now, which is after either of the proposed election dates.

There's no way to "take it off the table" permanently, other than by accepting a deal or abandoning Brexit entirely. Labour don't currently support doing those things either, so it's very hard to understand their position right now.

If Labour just said, "We don't want an election at the moment because we don't think we'd do very well in it." then at least they'd score some points for being honest.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1188831701654482945

THREAD: 1/10 Dispatches has found that secret meetings have taken place between senior civil servants and representatives of US pharmaceutical firms where the price the NHS pays for its drugs has been discussed.

Read the entire thread - it's scary stuff. Especially in combination with what the thread doesn't say, but will be in the programme: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1188826105135927298

Important #Dispatches tonight, showing just how serious the threat to the #NHS from a US trade deal is. According to the programme, the cost to the NHS of more expensive drugs would be £27bn, wiping out Johnson's #Brexit "bonus".

 

[The Don]

There's no such thing as a "Brexit bonus", Brexit is all cost.

The Brexit bonus is like claiming your "savings" are the difference between your credit card limit and your current outstanding balance

 

[ceptimus]

Well of course if you agree to spend £27 billion extra on drugs then you're £27 billion worse off. But why would the UK ever agree to do such a thing? Looks like more project fear guff to me.

 

[The Don]

Well of course if you agree to spend £27 billion extra on drugs then you're £27 billion worse off. But why would the UK ever agree to do such a thing? Looks like more project fear guff to me.

The UK would agree to it if these were the prerequisites for obtaining a trade deal with the US - and indications so far are that they would be.

Of course the UK could attempt to reject or renegotiate those terms but in view of the balance of power between the two parties in those negotiations - good luck with that.

 

[ceptimus]

Even under our current stupid and incompetent politicians, I don't see why the UK would sign up for a trade deal that makes it worse off than not having a trade deal. So, assuming for the sake of argument that the £27 billion extra on drugs is true, what are the compensating reductions in costs that are greater than £27 billion?

 

[Dave Rogers]

Even under our current stupid and incompetent politicians, I don't see why the UK would sign up for a trade deal that makes it worse off than not having a trade deal.

Have you heard of this thing called "Brexit" that seems really popular at the moment?

Dave

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Even under our current stupid and incompetent politicians, I don't see why the UK would sign up for a trade deal that makes it worse off than not having a trade deal. So, assuming for the sake of argument that the £27 billion extra on drugs is true, what are the compensating reductions in costs that are greater than £27 billion?

Because Brexit isn't about benefiting the UK. Have you really not twigged that yet?

 

[The Don]

Even under our current stupid and incompetent politicians, I don't see why the UK would sign up for a trade deal that makes it worse off than not having a trade deal. So, assuming for the sake of argument that the £27 billion extra on drugs is true, what are the compensating reductions in costs that are greater than £27 billion?

I think you fail to understand. £27bn is relatively small change in the wider context of UK/US trade arrangements so that could be the cost of getting that deal.

Of course the deal would be substantially worse than the deal that we have as a result of our EU membership but that's because the EU and US are peers economically whereas the UK alone is very much the junior partner in negotiations.

edited to add.....

It's like when I started my own business, I paid a couple of hundred pounds a year for corporate membership of Accor's rewards programme. I was out of pocket, but I did get 10% discount on hotel rooms so it was a better deal for me.

That discount paled in to insignificance next to the one that one of my multinational clients got for free but it's the best that I could get.

That's where the UK is now, paying for bronze membership of the US's rewards programme rather than qualifying automatically for platinum membership as now.

 

[wobs]

An excellent post on a Facebook group (48%) yesterday:

The problem with the PM and parliament is all of the PMs making. And its happened with every Conservative PM this century.

Cameron asked parliament to agree an advisory referendum on EU and they supported that request. After the bill was passed he told voters that he would go beyond "Advisory" and do whatever the outcome was. Even though this was expressly not approved by parliament. When the referendum results came out he reneged on that promise to deliver and immediately resigned. He also had done no planning based on alternative outcomes.

May asked parliament to agree her being given the authority to invoke Art 50. They did, but she once again did no planning and immediately invoked Article 50 with no discussion of what sort of Brexit parliament would agree. She then went on to waste 2 years without involving parliament to come up with a deal acceptable to EU parliament, but not her own. She then resigned.

Johnson who once voted for the May deal and then voted against the May deal in order to force her resignation did no planning or involvement of parliament before saying that he would "do or die" by Oct 31st. Note that in the poem dedicated to the Charge of the Light Brigade the phrase used was "do and die". Whilst at DUP 2018 conference he said no British Prime Minister would put a border down the Irish Sea, he then proposed a deal that would put a border down the Irish Sea. He did this without the pre-consent of parliament, so no surprise when they agreed it should go to second phase so that it could be scrutinised correctly rather than the meagre 3 days that Johnson tried to rush it through.

So, all the fault is with the Prime Ministers. In our system of government parliament is supreme. If PMs wish to follow their own fantasies and stoke up the aspirations of a whimsical minority of the people against their interests as expressed through the peoples representation in parliament then they have themselves to blame.

It is the Prime Minister and his bumbling clowns as ministers who are setting themselves against our democracy and the people.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Bloomberg report that the commemorative 50p coins are going to be melted down rather than being issued.

Another win for Brexit.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Bloomberg report that the commemorative 50p coins are going to be melted down rather than being issued.

Another win for Brexit.

Boris has taken his passion for wasting money and turned it into performance art.

 

[ceptimus]

After Brexit, in order to better represent their true value, 50p coins should be replaced by small thin aluminium discs, stamped merely with the words "**** all"