The Trump Presidency: Sweet/Sweat 16

Status
Not open for further replies.
Captain_Swoop said:
....And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!
Click to expand...



Okay, let's pretend for a moment that this comment is, in any way, actually related to reality.

If it's true that when Trump "wins", the "deal" will become "MUCH TOUGHER", in fact, so MUCH TOUGHER that "China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone", why the **** would China ever agree to such a deal? How would this "deal" be, in any way, an improvement over just full-on economic war? I'm willing to bet lots of money that the citizens of China are far more willing and able to take economic pain that the citizens of the US.
 
Horatius said:
Okay, let's pretend for a moment that this comment is, in any way, actually related to reality.

If it's true that when Trump "wins", the "deal" will become "MUCH TOUGHER", in fact, so MUCH TOUGHER that "China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone", why the **** would China ever agree to such a deal? How would this "deal" be, in any way, an improvement over just full-on economic war? I'm willing to bet lots of money that the citizens of China are far more willing and able to take economic pain that the citizens of the US.
Click to expand...

China doesn't really have the opportunity to change their leadership every few years either. So there's always that. Chinese leadership doesn't fear getting voted out if their people pay a bit more.
 
plague311 said:
China doesn't really have the opportunity to change their leadership every few years either. So there's always that. Chinese leadership doesn't fear getting voted out if their people pay a bit more.
Click to expand...

Party institutions, however, are pumping out a lot of hawkish commentary.

The U.S. is insisting on some tariffs remaining in order to "keep China committed to delivering any concessions made." This is an absolutely untenable position given the mood of the party, described as "a subversive historical error” in an article from People's Daily, a party publication. While Trump is talking about how good things are going, as long as that chip is still on the table, the next move is going to be more retaliatory tariffs on Dec. 15th.

ETA: Trump clearly has no understanding at all of how to do business in the east. You can't dance around proclaiming how you just screwed the other person over, they will feel they have to 'save face' and demonstrate their independence and strength.
 
Last edited:
Horatius said:
Okay, let's pretend for a moment that this comment is, in any way, actually related to reality.

If it's true that when Trump "wins", the "deal" will become "MUCH TOUGHER", in fact, so MUCH TOUGHER that "China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone", why the **** would China ever agree to such a deal? How would this "deal" be, in any way, an improvement over just full-on economic war? I'm willing to bet lots of money that the citizens of China are far more willing and able to take economic pain that the citizens of the US.
Click to expand...


Also let's say those supply chains "crumble", what and whom do those chains supply? Amongst others, U.S. companies, their factories in China and the products customers of those companies purchase. Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.
 
Last edited:
The Man said:
Also let's say those supply chains "crumble", what and whom do those chains supply? Amongst others, U.S. companies, their factories in China and the products customers of those companies purchase. Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.
Click to expand...


I assumed he was talking about when he "hereby ordered" all US companies to stop dealing with China. Once US companies pull out of China and stop selling them supplies, only China will be hurt. Of course, that requires companies to obey his "order".
 
Armitage72 said:
I assumed he was talking about when he "hereby ordered" all US companies to stop dealing with China. Once US companies pull out of China and stop selling them supplies, only China will be hurt. Of course, that requires companies to obey his "order".
Click to expand...

Huh ? :confused:

If US companies sell to China then they will be hurt if they can no longer do so. That hurts the company, their employees, reduces tax receipts and makes the trade deficit worse.

If US companies buy from China then unless they can source items of the same quality for the same price elsewhere then they will be damaged.

I guess the US will inflict damage on China but it will be in the same way that someone who has just received a hearty kick in the manparts has hurt his assailant's foot.
 
The Don said:
If US companies sell to China then they will be hurt if they can no longer do so. That hurts the company, their employees, reduces tax receipts and makes the trade deficit worse.

If US companies buy from China then unless they can source items of the same quality for the same price elsewhere then they will be damaged.
Click to expand...


He ordered companies to find alternatives to dealing with China, so he presumably believes that they can just stop selling to China and sell to other new customers instead, and immediately start getting material from new suppliers outside of China.
It is well established that he doesn't know how actual businesses function.
 
The Don said:
Huh ? :confused:

If US companies sell to China then they will be hurt if they can no longer do so. That hurts the company, their employees, reduces tax receipts and makes the trade deficit worse.

If US companies buy from China then unless they can source items of the same quality for the same price elsewhere then they will be damaged.

I guess the US will inflict damage on China but it will be in the same way that someone who has just received a hearty kick in the manparts has hurt his assailant's foot.
Click to expand...

This. Trading with China is really tedious, for a number of reasons (red tape, culture, quality, and others). Nobody would dream of doing it if they could not make good money on it. I assure you NOBODY buy goods or production services from China if they could get it even nearly as cheap locally. If they have to take it home, there will be costs. In fact, since lots of Chinese production is as subcontractors, there will be merchandize US manufacturers must simply stop making.

Also, price increases for US manufacturers will not just hurt US consumers, it will hurt US export as well.

Hans
 
Last edited:
In another blow to Trump's economy and his version that he's "winning" the trade war:

A gauge of U.S. manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed the sector contracted in August, its first decline since 2016.

The ISM U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.1% in August, the lowest reading in more than three years. Any reading below 50% signals a contraction.

The report raised fears of a recession and hit the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 300 points, extending losses following the morning release from ISM.
Click to expand...

Hopefully at some point he'll start to realize he's doing more harm than good to the economy.
 
MRC_Hans said:
This. Trading with China is really tedious, for a number of reasons (red tape, culture, quality, and others). Nobody would dream of doing it if they could not make good money on it. I assure you NOBODY buy goods or production services from China if they could get it even nearly as cheap locally. If they have to take it home, there will be costs. In fact, since lots of Chinese production is as subcontractors, there will be merchandize US manufacturers must simply stop making.

Also, price increases for US manufacturers will not just hurt US consumers, it will hurt US export as well.

Hans
Click to expand...

I can just see trying to have every resistor, circuit board, bearing, and so forth not come from China even indirectly.(like the circuit board is assembled in mexico, but the board itself is made in china and so are half the components on it).

To anyone who knows manufacturing this is getting to be a serious headache.
 
I saw a good point made the other day - the recessions allow wealthy people to buy things up cheaply. I don't think Trump puts that level of thought in to it, but it might explain why the Republican party is okay with them.
 
Delphic Oracle said:
Party institutions, however, are pumping out a lot of hawkish commentary.

The U.S. is insisting on some tariffs remaining in order to "keep China committed to delivering any concessions made." This is an absolutely untenable position given the mood of the party, described as "a subversive historical error” in an article from People's Daily, a party publication. While Trump is talking about how good things are going, as long as that chip is still on the table, the next move is going to be more retaliatory tariffs on Dec. 15th.

ETA: Trump clearly has no understanding at all of how to do business in the east. You can't dance around proclaiming how you just screwed the other person over, they will feel they have to 'save face' and demonstrate their independence and strength.
Click to expand...
[

This.

This concept is taught on day one of Dealing with Asia 101.

You don’t even have to be a businessperson to know stuff like this. But somehow it is beyond the world’s foremost 4-D chess player.
 
Last edited:
The Norseman said:
He doesn't now, and never will, care one flying fig about the economy.
Click to expand...

I don't know if I entirely agree with this statement. The only things Trump has bragged about have been the economy and unemployment. The rumor was his entire 2020 POTUS run was going to be based on the economy. I agree that he generally doesn't care about anything, but I think he needs the economy to win and winning is something he does care about...a lot.
 
The Norseman said:
He doesn't now, and never will, care one flying fig about the economy.
Click to expand...

Only in as much as it affects his reelection.

And talk about ignorant, where does he think the magic money comes from when people are paid for the money they then lend out? Does he think the Federal Reserve can just give out free money to boost he reelection chances? ... Oh wait, of course he does.

I also wonder if he thinks all these tariffs are going to reduce the deficit?

If it did, it's just more taxes on the poor. Which sadly a whole bunch of Trump supporters will refuse to note it.
 
Last edited:
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

“Brazil will allow more American Ethanol to enter the country without Tariffs, a decision that Brazilian mills are celebrating. The seemingly counter-intuitive reaction stems from the tone of ongoing negotiations between the South American nation and the U.S. for a....

....Trade Agreement.” @business @ChuckGrassley @joniernst @debfisher @BenSasse Making great progress for our Farmers. Approved E-15, year round. Big additional list to be submitted and approved within two weeks. Will be even better for Ethanol, and we save our small refineries!
Click to expand...

Hmm, I think this might be "Trump" tweets. Maybe he's being held hostage and needs someone to rescue him, and this is his way of communicating it's not him? A bit like the morse code blinks in Viet Minh prisoner propaganda films.
 
The Don said:
Huh ? :confused:

If US companies sell to China then they will be hurt if they can no longer do so. That hurts the company, their employees, reduces tax receipts and makes the trade deficit worse.

If US companies buy from China then unless they can source items of the same quality for the same price elsewhere then they will be damaged.

I guess the US will inflict damage on China but it will be in the same way that someone who has just received a hearty kick in the manparts has hurt his assailant's foot.
Click to expand...

And of course, China has put tariffs on goods that have easy alternative sources, and which are in Trump's heartland, whilst the US has put tariffs on goods that are far harder to get from elsewhere, at least at a similar price.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom