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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

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Information Analyst said:
In light of the most recent poll (YouGov 19-21 May), here are my expectations for the seat allocations (in Remain to Hard Leave order):

Lib-Dems | 13
Green | 12
SNP | 2
Plaid Cymru | 2
Change UK | 6
Sinn Fein | 1
Labour | 10
Conservative | 7
DUP | 1
Brexit Ltd. | 14
UKIP | 5

Overall this would give the openly pro-Remain parties 36 seats, the No Dealers 20, leaving Labour and the Conservatives with the other 17.

The only Regions we can say for definite are:

LONDON |
Lib-Dems | 2 (Seats 2 & 6)
Green | 2 (Seats 4 & 8)
Labour | 2 (Seats 3 & 7)
Brexit Ltd. | 2 (Seats 1 & 5)

The second Green seat (#8) is on a knife-edge, with a sole Conservative seat being the alternative. Change UK and Lib-Dems would tie for a tenth place.

SCOTLAND |
SNP | 1 (Seats 1 & 3)
Lib-Dems | 1 (Seat 4)
Green | 1 (Seat 6)
Brexit Ltd. | 2 (Seats 2 & 5)

Both Labour and the Conservatives are a tie for seventh place, with the SNP on ninth. If the SNP did mange to take a third seat, it would be at the expense of the Greens.
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God I hope this is accurate.
 
Me?
I'm hoping the Brexit vote is high in the polls, as it was for UKIP 5 years ago.

37% is an alarming number of nutters...
 
Wudang said:
For those looking for good news:



Morrison's have Cardhu Gold reserve at £26 down from £42. You might need some.
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If you want even better news its £25 on Amazon. (See the benefit of not paying your taxes!)

Or £25 in Asda. Or Waitrose too.

We should just turn this thread into a malt whisky bargain thread as it would be much more useful
 
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Indeed it would.
I think I'm down to one bottle in the cupboard.
Brexit has been bad for my stocks...:(
 
Information Analyst said:
In light of the most recent poll (YouGov 19-21 May), here are my expectations for the seat allocations (in Remain to Hard Leave order):

Lib-Dems | 13
Green | 12
SNP | 2
Plaid Cymru | 2
Change UK | 6
Sinn Fein | 1
Labour | 10
Conservative | 7
DUP | 1
Brexit Ltd. | 14
UKIP | 5

Overall this would give the openly pro-Remain parties 36 seats, the No Dealers 20, leaving Labour and the Conservatives with the other 17.

The only Regions we can say for definite are:

LONDON |
Lib-Dems | 2 (Seats 2 & 6)
Green | 2 (Seats 4 & 8)
Labour | 2 (Seats 3 & 7)
Brexit Ltd. | 2 (Seats 1 & 5)

The second Green seat (#8) is on a knife-edge, with a sole Conservative seat being the alternative. Change UK and Lib-Dems would tie for a tenth place.

SCOTLAND |
SNP | 1 (Seats 1 & 3)
Lib-Dems | 1 (Seat 4)
Green | 1 (Seat 6)
Brexit Ltd. | 2 (Seats 2 & 5)

Both Labour and the Conservatives are a tie for seventh place, with the SNP on ninth. If the SNP did mange to take a third seat, it would be at the expense of the Greens.
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I keep seeing markedly different polling data for Scotland from different sources. Last I heard Green were trailing and out of the race. No way will Lab not get a seat surely?

It looks like there might be some switching of SNP votes to other remain parties to try to get them a fourth seat which may benefit Lib Dem

My updated prediction

SNP 3
Lab 1
Brexit 1
Lib Dem 1 (or possibly the Tories)
 
Tolls said:
Indeed it would.
I think I'm down to one bottle in the cupboard.
Brexit has been bad for my stocks...:(
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I have recently restocked my booze cupboards. Highland Park 12 is my go to when it's on offer at £25 as it is now. And I am trying this Aerstone stuff from Tesco at £20.

Of course I am also not supposed to be drinking at the minute so it may take me some time to work my way through my stock.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
God I hope this is accurate.
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Me too. I had to make a few tweaks because the YouGov data combines Wales and Northern Ireland with groups of English Regions, so on paper it underplays the likely number of Plaid Cymru and the NI party seats. It's also an effect of the way seats are allocated by party that Brexit Ltd./UKIP getting 40% of the vote only gets them around 26% of seats, whereas the openly-Remain parties get 48% of the seats on 39% of the vote. It's actually quite funny looking at Leavers creaming themselves on social media when they clearly don't understand how it works.

Although there has been much talk about it being better if Remain supporters were only voting for a single party, rather than three or four (depending on voting region), they would be a better match for Brexit Ltd., but the counting method works against that. In the case of Scotland, if everyone who intended to vote for the Lid-Dems, Greens, and Change UK instead voted SNP, giving them around 62%, they would get three seats, Brexit Ltd would get two, and the sixth would be either Labour or Conservative. In contrast, by having the Lib-Dems and Greens get a decent percentage, they each get a seat, while SNP gets two, to Brexit Ltd.'s two.
 
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Tolls said:
You really think BREXIT are only going to get 14 seats?
That seems rather low?
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No, it's a feature of how the D'Hondt system used to allocate the seats works.

This is how the 8 London seats would be allocated, based on the same total number of voters as in 2014:

PARTY | % | VOTES | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3
Conservative | 7 | 121,358 | 121,358 | 60,679 | 40,453
Labour | 20 | 346,738 | 346,738 | 173,369 | 115,579
Lib-Dems | 24 | 416,085 | 416,085 | 208,043 | 138,695
Green | 14 | 242,716 | 242,716 | 121,358 | 80,905
UKIP | 3 | 52,011 | 52,011 | 26,005 | 17,337
Brexit Ltd. | 26 | 450,759 | 450,759 | 225,380 | 150,253
Change UK | 4 | 69,348 | 69,348 | 34,674 | 23,116
Other | 3 | 52,011 | 52,011 | 26,005 | 17,337
TOTAL | | 1,751,026 | | |

Bold counts are seats, italics are the split eighth seat.

Even though Brexit Ltd. has more votes than the Lib-Dems, and much more than Labour, they all get two seats each. Meanwhile, the Greens on just over half of Brexit Ltd.'s votes gets one seat or possibly two.
 
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Information Analyst said:
No, it's a feature of how the D'Hondt system used to allocate the seats works.
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But the stats you linked to seem only divide Great Britain into 5 broad areas; there are 11 regions each with their own count.

I'll be very happy for you to be right but other projections I've seen appear to give the Faragists almost double the seats you predict.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
But the stats you linked to seem only divide Great Britain into 5 broad areas; there are 11 regions each with their own count.

I'll be very happy for you to be right but other projections I've seen appear to give the Faragists almost double the seats you predict.
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Yes, there are 11 regions, but the polling data is not being reported to that level.

Unfortunately, I have just discovered a rather embarrassing error in my calculations, so the allocation should actually be more like:

Lib-Dems | 15
Green | 10
SNP | 2
Plaid Cymru | 1
Change UK | 1
Sinn Fein | 1
Labour | 9
Conservative | 4
DUP | 1
Brexit Ltd. | 29
UKIP | 0

So basically a 30/30 split between Remain/No Deal, with Labour and the Conservative 13% in the middle. I would have a tendency to think, though, that the predicted Brexit percentage will not be achieved, so they'll get less seats, but we'll know for sure on Sunday.

Bah! The London and Scotland breakdowns above are unaffected.
 
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Information Analyst said:
Yes, there are 11 regions, but the polling data is not being reported to that level.

Unfortunately, I have just discovered a rather embarrassing error in my calculations, so the allocation should actually be more like:

Lib-Dems | 15
Green | 10
SNP | 2
Plaid Cymru | 1
Change UK | 1
Sinn Fein | 1
Labour | 9
Conservative | 4
DUP | 1
Brexit Ltd. | 29
UKIP | 0

So basically a 30/30 split between Remain/No Deal, with Labour and the Conservative 13% in the middle. I would have a tendency to think, though, that the predicted Brexit percentage will not be achieved, so they'll get less seats, but we'll know for sure on Sunday.

Bah! The London and Scotland breakdowns above are unaffected.
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Christ, we're ******.

The unscrupulous have conned the credulous and it's going to be a disaster.

I can't see any way that this ends well.


I am genuinely terrified for the future of my country.
 
catsmate said:
If the Westminster government refuses to allow a referendum then the Scots ignore this, hold one anyway and the SNP uses the Brexit mess and the attempt to stop the referendum to magnify the independence vote. Then the Scots declare the Union annulled. Unless the RUK government really wants Civil War II: This Time It's Nuclear (quite possible given the prevailing level of stupidity) there's not a lot for them to do. Especially given the likely EU support.
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I wonder what the Gaelic is for "When In the Course of Human Events"....
 
Information Analyst said:
Yes, there are 11 regions, but the polling data is not being reported to that level.

Unfortunately, I have just discovered a rather embarrassing error in my calculations, so the allocation should actually be more like:

Lib-Dems | 15
Green | 10
SNP | 2
Plaid Cymru | 1
Change UK | 1
Sinn Fein | 1
Labour | 9
Conservative | 4
DUP | 1
Brexit Ltd. | 29
UKIP | 0

So basically a 30/30 split between Remain/No Deal, with Labour and the Conservative 13% in the middle. I would have a tendency to think, though, that the predicted Brexit percentage will not be achieved, so they'll get less seats, but we'll know for sure on Sunday.

Bah! The London and Scotland breakdowns above are unaffected.
Click to expand...

That looks like a more realistic UKIP number now anyway!

Really can't see Green getting that many seats but we shall see soon enough.

I just came back from the polling station. Only had a Lib Dem guy outside and he made no effort to swing my vote so Greens got it.
 
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