Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[McHrozni]

Given that the majority of the Conservative party members are in favour of a no-deal Brexit then IMO the next leader of the party will try and force through a no-deal Brexit. It's likely that they will actively do this rather than just sitting on their hands and letting it happen by default.

Possible and likely, if UKIP/Brexit parties win big. If they underperform and LibDem et.al. win big instead, I wouldn't count on it at all. A No Deal Brexit is not the end of history, but having one with a dysfunctional government, bitterly divided Parliament and against the wishes of the electorate is a bridge too far, even for Ress-Mogg and his vermin. He'd resign citing health reasons, I think.

The fact that it's unlikely that the Conservatives would do well in a general election means it's unlikely that they will call one early. Better to limp along with a wafer thin majority and a supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP than be out of power altogether.

As you suggest, their hand could be forced by a no-confidence vote triggered by Labour, but that would be a bold call and could easily result in Tory rebels "unrebelling" and supporting the government in the no-confidence vote.

Suppose five more Tory MPs resign from the party and join the independent group. They offer you a choice: give us another Brexit referendum, or we'll join with the opposition and force a new general election. What would BJ or Ress-Mogg do? What could they do?

If Bremain parties win, I don't see this as too unlikely. Granted, they may lose big too. We'll see in a few days. Yay.

McHrozni

 

[Tolls]

I mean, I knew there were a lot of dim MPs in Westminster, and always have been...Ithe past couple of years have highlighted just how many of them are complete ****-wits.

 

[Ian Osborne]

And there really should be a GE following the appointment of the new leader, but of course there won't be because they know they would lose seats.

To whom? Labour is as weak and divided on Brexit as the Tories.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

To whom? Labour is as weak and divided on Brexit as the Tories.

To the Brexit Party for a start probably. And Lib Dem on the other side. Even if its only a handful the maths is so tight that they won't risk it.

I also will right now stake what remains of my reputation on the fact that NOTHING in the EU election will cause anyone to change their opinion on anything. They will merely read the tea-leaves to suit themselves.

Brexit Party do well - it just shows that the country wants out right now/it just shows that we need to do everything to prevent this minority railroading out of the EU

Brexit Party do badly - it just shows that the country has changed it mind/it just shows that people are disillusioned with the whole thing and want it over with/it just shows we need to get out before Brexit is stolen from us.

Lib Dem do well - it just shows that people are tired of the big two parties/it is just Remoaners trying to undo the WILL OF THE PEOPLE(TM)

And so on and so on. It's exactly the same in Scotland with independence. The SNP win an election and are told they have done badly and it just shows how nobody wants independence despite the largest section voting for it.

Politics has jumped the shark.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I mean, I knew there were a lot of dim MPs in Westminster, and always have been...Ithe past couple of years have highlighted just how many of them are complete ****-wits.

It's not just MPs. Its amazing how many people get by on bluster, over-confidence, and a posh accent.

 

[McHrozni]

To the Brexit Party for a start probably. And Lib Dem on the other side. Even if its only a handful the maths is so tight that they won't risk it.

I also will right now stake what remains of my reputation on the fact that NOTHING in the EU election will cause anyone to change their opinion on anything. They will merely read the tea-leaves to suit themselves.

Brexit Party do well - it just shows that the country wants out right now/it just shows that we need to do everything to prevent this minority railroading out of the EU

Brexit Party do badly - it just shows that the country has changed it mind/it just shows that people are disillusioned with the whole thing and want it over with/it just shows we need to get out before Brexit is stolen from us.

Lib Dem do well - it just shows that people are tired of the big two parties/it is just Remoaners trying to undo the WILL OF THE PEOPLE(TM)

And so on and so on. It's exactly the same in Scotland with independence. The SNP win an election and are told they have done badly and it just shows how nobody wants independence despite the largest section voting for it.

Politics has jumped the shark.

I have no doubt you're right in that those will be the talking points.

Not one of them points to any sort of policy that could win a credible majority however.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Possible and likely, if UKIP/Brexit parties win big. If they underperform and LibDem et.al. win big instead, I wouldn't count on it at all. A No Deal Brexit is not the end of history, but having one with a dysfunctional government, bitterly divided Parliament and against the wishes of the electorate is a bridge too far, even for Ress-Mogg and his vermin. He'd resign citing health reasons, I think.

Why would he need to resign ? He would still have the overwhelming support of the people in the Conservative party even if the rest of the country is swinging towards Remain. To remain Prime Minister, you just have to remain leader of the largest party in the governing coalition.

Suppose five more Tory MPs resign from the party and join the independent group. They offer you a choice: give us another Brexit referendum, or we'll join with the opposition and force a new general election. What would BJ or Ress-Mogg do? What could they do?

If Bremain parties win, I don't see this as too unlikely. Granted, they may lose big too. We'll see in a few days. Yay.

McHrozni

I would guess that they would go with the election in the hope and expectation that electoral mathematics, Labour Party unpopularity and political inertia means that they gain seats despite losing support.

The initial premise is also a challenging one. I think that all Tories who might jump ship have already done so. I also think that it's unlikely that they would join the Independent group because without major party support it's highly likely that they would lose their seat in the subsequent election.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I have no doubt you're right in that those will be the talking points.

Not one of them points to any sort of policy that could win a credible majority however.

McHrozni

Those who want to leave without a deal don't need a credible majority. They just need to wait.

 

[Information Analyst]

Christ, we're ******.

The unscrupulous have conned the credulous and it's going to be a disaster.

I can't see any way that this ends well.

I am genuinely terrified for the future of my country.

I've just had a stab at trying to rebase the figures to specific Regions - not pretty. I still think it'll be a even split, but between Remain/Labour on one side, and Tory/No Deal on the other.

 

[Information Analyst]

There are also stories about postal votes to British nationals in the EU not arriving on time.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190522/br...ote-in-european-elections-over-voting-mishaps

It's not entirely surprising, the electoral comission was working on a tight schedule for a complex election they didn't prepare or budget for. Still, the response of EU is poignant: there is a significant democratic deficit in the UK.

A friend who works in graphic design with a company that does work for one of the London Boroughs said everything went into meltdown, because with all the uncertainly they (the Borough) were holding off printing the ballot papers until they knew they absolutely had to. I guess the fear was that they would get pilloried for the wasted cost if the elections had not gone ahead.

The whole thing seems rather shambolic.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

I have doubts about your judgment of the guy.

McHrozni

Ha, me too. Well he's definitely intelligent (very) in a technical, IT way and he's one of the nicest people I've ever met...but he is a trifle naive, which is what I put this down to.

The worrying thing is I've heard loads of remainers saying they'd vote leave now (not because they agree with it but 'because we lost and it's only fair') but I've yet to hear any of the leavers I know switch the other way, just become more committed to leaving.

We're buggered as a country. It won't be immediate but just a ramping up of our already existing decline... and the type of people who voted leave will still blame someone else.

 

[Garrison]

And the good news is May is stepping down on June 7th, the bad news is any of her likely replacements....

 

[IanS]

Given that the majority of the Conservative party members are in favour of a no-deal Brexit then IMO the next leader of the party will try and force through a no-deal Brexit. It's likely that they will actively do this rather than just sitting on their hands and letting it happen by default.

I don't think the majority of the Conservative party do want a No Deal Brexit. I don't recall seeing that in all the various votes that the MP's had a couple of months back.

As far as I recall from all that past voting - unless something dramatic changes, then there is very little chance of MP's as a whole (i.e. a majority in the HoC) voting for a No Deal exit from the EU.

Even in the Conservative party, even Jacob R-Mogg and his ultra right wing group would actually prefer a deal rather than no deal, though they would be quite happy with No Deal if they can't get the EU to give the UK a seemingly impossible deal which is exactly to the liking of Mogg's Tory right-wing group.

IOW – if it comes down to UK MP's voting to choose between No Deal and something like a second referendum or a new General Election, than afaik (on the basis of all we've seen so far) the No Deal option would be soundly rejected.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't think the majority of the Conservative party do want a No Deal Brexit. I don't recall seeing that in all the various votes that the MP's had a couple of months back.

As far as I recall from all that past voting - unless something dramatic changes, then there is very little chance of MP's as a whole (i.e. a majority in the HoC) voting for a No Deal exit from the EU.

Even in the Conservative party, even Jacob R-Mogg and his ultra right wing group would actually prefer a deal rather than no deal, though they would be quite happy with No Deal if they can't get the EU to give the UK a seemingly impossible deal which is exactly to the liking of Mogg's Tory right-wing group.

IOW – if it comes down to UK MP's voting to choose between No Deal and something like a second referendum or a new General Election, than afaik (on the basis of all we've seen so far) the No Deal option would be soundly rejected.

Everything has been soundly rejected so far. The only benefit that No Deal has is it is the one thing that doesn't require MPs to agree to it.

 

[The Don]

I don't think the majority of the Conservative party do want a No Deal Brexit. I don't recall seeing that in all the various votes that the MP's had a couple of months back.

There's plenty of polling evidence to show that the majority of Conservative Party members are in favour of a no-deal Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ers-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

As far as I recall from all that past voting - unless something dramatic changes, then there is very little chance of MP's as a whole (i.e. a majority in the HoC) voting for a No Deal exit from the EU.

It's true that until now no-deal hasn't had a lot of support from Conservative Party MPs - but until now Theresa Mays deal has been the official Conservative Party policy and as a result has had the support of party loyalists. If no-deal were to become the official Conservative Party policy then a different picture is likely to emerge IMO.

Even in the Conservative party, even Jacob R-Mogg and his ultra right wing group would actually prefer a deal rather than no deal, though they would be quite happy with No Deal if they can't get the EU to give the UK a seemingly impossible deal which is exactly to the liking of Mogg's Tory right-wing group.

I have yet to see evidence of that.

Recently Rees-Mogg said that he was willing to support Theresa May's deal (though he quickly backtracked on that) but only because he believed that the alternative was no-Brexit. I suppose he would be happy with an "all the benefits of EU membership without any of the obligations" deal but that's not really a deal.

IOW – if it comes down to UK MP's voting to choose between No Deal and something like a second referendum or a new General Election, than afaik (on the basis of all we've seen so far) the No Deal option would be soundly rejected.

It may be soundly rejected but no alternative seems capable of attracting majority support and as a consequence as the default, no-deal is still the most likely outcome.

 

[The Don]

Interesting feedback on Theresa May as a Prime Minister from the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg

“A terrible failure of a prime minister who basically had one job to do, and did not do it and has left the party… in a worse state than it was after the referendum”

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/sta.../www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48394091

I note that the concern was about the Conservative Party and not the country

 

[Lothian]

Interesting feedback on Theresa May as a Prime Minister from the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg


https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/sta.../www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48394091

I note that the concern was about the Conservative Party and not the country

May will go down in history as the second worst PM of the decade.

Third worst was Cameron who had a silly idea that would ruin the country.

May is the second worst for picking up that idea and trying really hard to ruin the country but not fully achieving it.

The worst is the next PM who I have no doubt will finish the job Cameron started and will fully ruin the country

 

[Tolls]

I note that the concern was about the Conservative Party and not the country

Let's be honest, that's no great surprise.
They really couldn't give a toss about the country.

 

[Tolls]

May will go down in history as the second worst PM of the decade.

Third worst was Cameron who had a silly idea that would ruin the country.

May is the second worst for picking up that idea and trying really hard to ruin the country but not fully achieving it.

The worst is the next PM who I have no doubt will finish the job Cameron started and will fully ruin the country

When this is all written about as history, when the various files start to become available, in 50 years time it'll be Cameron who gets the knife. May (and her successor) will be a footnote largely because this whole thing was pretty inevitable, simply down to the construction of the Tory party.

 

[IanS]

There's plenty of polling evidence to show that the majority of Conservative Party members are in favour of a no-deal Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ers-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

A quick look at that link shows it does not actually say that all . What is says is not about elected MP's, but just about the opinion of ordinary people who are paid-up members of the Conservative party, who say that they would prefer a No Deal rather than the deal Mrs May was presenting ... and that's a very different matter to a majority of elected Conservative MP's in the HoC actually wanting a No Deal exit. Though just in case anyone gets the wrong impression here (which at least one poster clearly did in a different current thread) – I'm almost the least likely person here to ever vote for Conservative policies/candidates/governments .