Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Information Analyst]

As the cancel brexit petition tops 4 million, the lady who started it has been receiving death threats and has closed her social media down.

Death threats - and one actual murder - definitely seem to be more of a Leave thing.

 

[Garrison]

Death threats - and one actual murder - definitely seem to be more of a Leave thing.

Well after all they are defending the will of the people from those millions of whiners who keep pointing Brexit is unworkable.

 

[quadraginta]

Unless parliament does something, we crash out with no deal on March 29th.

If parliament passes suitable legislation then we'll accept the EU's extension and leave with Theresa May's deal in place in 29 May or, if there is no vote or if the vote fails, we have until 12 April to go back to the EU with a plan.

The default is still a no-deal on the 29th March.

It's a bit more complicated than that. If Parliament does nothing then we would technically still be in the EU as per the non-legislative act the EU published yesterday but domestically it would be a huge mess. Passing the statutory instrument through both houses should be a formality but, with Brexit, you never know what might happen next.

The more I read about all this the more confused I become. I've been following these threads since they started. I've gotten a Guardian feed into my email every day for years now, and for quite a while I've been getting their special Brexit feed.

I feel like I'm deeper in the weeds all the time.

I give up.

I guess I'm just gonna have to wait until you guys are all the way out or all the way in. It's the only way I'll be able to figure this out.

It isn't even all that much fun to watch any more. Kinda painful, actually.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Of course they're not, but neither are the living costs. Having worked in various countries, more often than not you will find that doing a similar job in other countries gives you roughly the same standard of living.

True, but when the comparative value of the wages between the countries are sufficiently different it becomes more attractive to short term workers from the country with the lower value currency to build up a nest egg to take back. Doing a poorly paid job and living in low cost shared accommodation for a period of time you decide in order to return with money that will have more spending power when you get back home is a more attractive proposition than being in that position perminantly. Not that it is the fault of the EU that in this country you can work full time and not have the necessary means to afford decent accommodation and have a secure and reasonable standard of living. When people complain that it "isn't worth" the unemployed taking a job, the problem is not necessarily that benefits are too generous.

 

[ponderingturtle]

I thought it was a joke...

Uri Geller writes bizarre letter to Theresa May vowing to 'stop you telepathically from leading Britain into Brexit'

Well this seems more sensible and achievable than the major brexit goals.

 

[SusanB-M1]

Before turning off the radio yesterday evening, I listened to an interview with some Editor of The Times, Ken Shipman or something, talking about the just about inevitable resignation of Theresa May. Sounded much more like a drag-her-down whatever she does, heavy dose of misogyny to me.

Of course she has made mistakes, but at present, I think the idea of a whole change of PMs is idiotic.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Changing horses midstream seems to be SOP nowadays.

 

[SezMe]

It would be less bad than a no deal a week from now. Even if people still died, it would be proven who the executioner was. That too is worth a lot, come next election.

McHrozni

Small consolation for those who did the dying.

 

[Nessie]

No one could have negotiated a "good deal" with the EU.

1 - there is no consensus in Parliament as to what is a good deal
2 - there is no one in Parliament would could have out negotiated the EU.

 

[jeremyp]

Then what is the evidence based method skeptics should use to determine if they should support a second referendum?

You could ask a sample of people carefully selected to represent the demographics as closely as possible whether they think Britain should leave the EU or not. If a significant majority say not, there’s your reason for the third* referendum.

*yes, we have already had two.

 

[Nessie]

I never got how the EU supposedly ruled over is and how we will get lots of power back by leaving.

The political group that has the most influence over my life is the local council. What they do and decide affects all the local infrastructure and what I can and cannot do in my day to day life.

Second comes the Scottish parliament which I can think of as having had 3 major impacts, there is no toll on a bridge I go over a lot, there is no prescription charges and I pay different tax.

Then comes Westminster, which primarily affects me in terms of the legal system, which affects me but only if I took up stealing, murdering and speeding.

Then comes the EU and its impact on me is....?

 

[jeremyp]

No one could have negotiated a "good deal" with the EU.

1 - there is no consensus in Parliament as to what is a good deal
2 - there is no one in Parliament would could have out negotiated the EU.

I think point 1 is false. There is secretly a consensus - or a majority at least, for Remain. The problem is that the stupid referendum has cowed MPs into accepting something they don’t want because they might lose their jobs otherwise.

Point 2 is very true. There is absolutely no way that the EU was ever going to let Britain have a deal that was better than what we have now as a member. They cannot possibly be sending the message to other countries “hey, you’ll be better off if you leave”. No Deal is bad for the EU, but it’s not as bad as any deal that says you are better off not in the EU. For some reason, that point seems to have eluded the numbskulls negotiating for Britain.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I never got how the EU supposedly ruled over is and how we will get lots of power back by leaving.

The political group that has the most influence over my life is the local council. What they do and decide affects all the local infrastructure and what I can and cannot do in my day to day life.

Second comes the Scottish parliament which I can think of as having had 3 major impacts, there is no toll on a bridge I go over a lot, there is no prescription charges and I pay different tax.

Then comes Westminster, which primarily affects me in terms of the legal system, which affects me but only if I took up stealing, murdering and speeding.

Then comes the EU and its impact on me is....?

I think you might have some of this backwards. While the more proximate authorities might have more touch points on your daily life the decisions that affect them and the power to change things largely reside in Westminster.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think point 1 is false. There is secretly a consensus - or a majority at least, for Remain. The problem is that the stupid referendum has cowed MPs into accepting something they don’t want because they might lose their jobs otherwise.

Point 2 is very true. There is absolutely no way that the EU was ever going to let Britain have a deal that was better than what we have now as a member. They cannot possibly be sending the message to other countries “hey, you’ll be better off if you leave”. No Deal is bad for the EU, but it’s not as bad as any deal that says you are better off not in the EU. For some reason, that point seems to have eluded the numbskulls negotiating for Britain.

I would actually put point 2 differently. Given that we are leaving the EU there are a very limited* number of solutions that are possible. It really wasn't a negotiation so much as it was a determination as to what the rules allowed the UK to do and which of those end points the UK wanted to select.

The fundamental mistake UK negotiators have appeared to make is in thinking that the EU could or would simply ignore its own rules in order to make a bespoke deal for the UK because... BMW.

*in actual fact, given the red lines of the UK and the Ireland situation the true number of possible solutions may be 0.

 

[jeremyp]

Then comes the EU and its impact on me is....?

Any goods you buy that come from the EU are cheaper because of the EU. You can travel abroad in the EU with minimal documentation. You need a passport at the border between the UK and the rest of the EU (except Ireland) but your drivers license and your car insurance are valid in the EU. Also, Your mobile phone operator cannot fleece you as it used to do when in other EU countries.

Your car is much safer than in the past because of EU standards. Food that you eat is safer because of EU safety standards.

Your employment rights are higher because of EU employment law. For example, most people cannot be made to work more than 48 hours per week because of the EU.

If you are a research scientist, you could be being funded by the EU science budget. If you work for an airline, your company benefits enormously from EU wide agreements on air travel.

You can be sure your Claret comes from Bordeaux, your Parma ham and your Stilton come from the correct regions.

If you want to live and work in Germany, France or even Romania, you can do so thanks to the EU.

There are down sides of course, you cannot drive your workers for 80 hours a week and you cannot call your dry cured ham that you make in a factory outside Rotherham “Parma ham”. Also, you can’t stop Romanians, Germans or French from coming here, taking jobs, paying taxes and improving the cultural diversity of the place.

It should be noted that, when I say “the EU”, as of now that includes the UK. All of the laws and regulations that lead to the things above were agreed in a decision making process in which the British government has huge influence. That influence will be going away in any scenario that is not Remain.

 

[jeremyp]

I would actually put point 2 differently. Given that we are leaving the EU there are a very limited* number of solutions that are possible. It really wasn't a negotiation so much as it was a determination as to what the rules allowed the UK to do and which of those end points the UK wanted to select.

The fundamental mistake UK negotiators have appeared to make is in thinking that the EU could or would simply ignore its own rules in order to make a bespoke deal for the UK because... BMW.

*in actual fact, given the red lines of the UK and the Ireland situation the true number of possible solutions may be 0.

Actually, the number of solutions is at least 1. No Deal is always possible because the red lines will mean nothing if we hit the deadline and we haven’t agreed a deal. I would say Remain is also always possible (up to deadline day) because I don’t think it is a given that we are leaving the EU. I admit the possibility of Remain is looking pretty remote at the moment, but it is a way out that satisfies all of the legal constraints, if not the political constraints.

As for your point about BMW sand EU rules, I agree. In conversations I have with Brexiteers, they often claim “the EU will do a deal with us because of BMW (it’s always BMW, not Volkswagen, or Peugeot or Fiat) and Prosecco. However, they ignore the EU’s past history which has often prioritized policy ahead of economics.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

No one could have negotiated a "good deal" with the EU.

1 - there is no consensus in Parliament as to what is a good deal
2 - there is no one in Parliament would could have out negotiated the EU.

3 - there is no deal that actually leaves the country better off than remaining.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1109558407844020226

Holy smokes. This is the best aerial footage yet.

Video embedded in tweet.

When I heard the figure of a million people there I saw sceptical. It's self-reported, for a start. But after seeing this footage I can believe it. That's a lot of people.

 

[Samson]

Actually, the number of solutions is at least 1. No Deal is always possible because the red lines will mean nothing if we hit the deadline and we haven’t agreed a deal. I would say Remain is also always possible (up to deadline day) because I don’t think it is a given that we are leaving the EU. I admit the possibility of Remain is looking pretty remote at the moment, but it is a way out that satisfies all of the legal constraints, if not the political constraints.

As for your point about BMW sand EU rules, I agree. In conversations I have with Brexiteers, they often claim “the EU will do a deal with us because of BMW (it’s always BMW, not Volkswagen, or Peugeot or Fiat) and Prosecco. However, they ignore the EU’s past history which has often prioritized policy ahead of economics.

Why is remain remote?
I may be a simpleton but what I understand is
1. Britain is part of the EU
2. A solid majority of currently registered voters like it that way.

I never believed there would be Brexit, and still don't just looking on from down under.

 

[KDLarsen]

No one could have negotiated a "good deal" with the EU.

1 - there is no consensus in Parliament as to what is a good deal
2 - there is no one in Parliament would could have out negotiated the EU.

I don't know about that, but in any case, May pretty much kneecapped the negotiations right from the start, by imposing the red lines she had unilaterally decided upon.